GCC - Equity Market Monitor

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g August 11, 2016 8/11/2016
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return QTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (DFM) ‐0.1% 9.0% 0.8% 2.0% ‐0.4% ‐8.1% 0.8% ‐2.2% 0.2% 12.0% 1.3% 6.6% UAE (Abu  Dhabi) 0.1% 5.4% ‐0.8% 0.9% Source: Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Kuwait ‐ PI Kuwait  0.1% ‐1.8% 1.1% 2.8% Kuwait ‐ Wtd ‐0.3% ‐7.6% 0.6% 0.4% Qatar Bahrain 0.7% 5.4% 3.7% 11.2% ‐0.2% ‐5.2% ‐0.3% 3.0%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day’s Turnover: RO 2.591 million (c. US$ 6.7 million) Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Figures In RO Bank Muscat Banking 432,872 16.7% BUY SELL NET 1 907 920 1,907,920  2 025 438 2,025,438  (117,518) Alizz Islamic Bank Alizz Islamic Bank Banking 276 149 276,149 10 7% 10.7% GCC 437,756  169,614  268,142  Al Anwar Holding Inv Hldg 172,438 6.7% Arabs 23,342  45,328  (21,986) Phoenix Power Utilities 156,939 6.1% OTHERS 222,136  350,774  (128,638) HSBC Bank Oman Banking 149,936 5.8% OMANIS MSM Lead Indicators MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,512,819  8.7 1.2 5.4% MSM 30 5,896.97 5,886.80 0.17% 2.07% 9.08% Financial 3,147,865  7.4 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,596.83 7,584.76 0.16% 4.55% 17.28% Industrial 1,134,813  10.9 1.6 4.6% Industrial d l 7,571.33 7,553.40 0.24% 3.59% 11.82% Services 3,020,696  10.5 2.0 5.8% Services 3,208.54 3,207.87 0.02% ‐0.84% 5.00% MSM Shariah 3,485,424  11.6 1.9 5.3% MSM Shariah 893.03 892.04 0.11% 0.75% 4.40% 8/11/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg   MENA  %MTD %QTD %YTD   19.4 1.4 1.6 4.7 1.5 1.5 18.3 ‐0.8 6.6 10.7 ‐4.0 8 8.7 1.3 1.2 6.2 16 1.6 0.7 0.4 2.3 ‐2.7 ‐3.1 6.4 ‐2 2.8 8 ‐2.6 ‐0.6 ‐1.9 8,291.5 1.1 3.9 2,120.0 ‐0.5 0.9 5,376.4 ‐0.3 0.4 21,037.9 ‐0.1 0.3 511.5 ‐0.6 0.0 9 ‐0.7 0 3 3.4 77,955.7 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 112.4 ‐0.1 1.5 92.5 ‐0.1 1.4 1,539.6 0.2 1.4 440 8 440.8 ‐0 0.1 1 16 1.6 492.6 0.2 ‐0.2 432.7 0.5 ‐0.3 484.4 0.0 1.6 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index Index  Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  ‐0.1 0.3 4.5 3.9 MSCI W ld E USA MSCI World ‐Ex USA 1 701 4 1,701.4 03 0.3 07 0.7 56 5.6 05 0.5 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,475.8 0.3 0.4 4.5 ‐3.1 903.0 0.4 3.4 8.3 13.7 Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 637.6 0.6 ‐0.8 1.0 16.7 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 239.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 6.7 ‐6.4 5.8 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  83.1 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 6,866.4 4,452.0 10,650.9 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 16,735.1 22,554.8 27 793 9 27,793.9 3,022.1 2,040.6 946.6 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 ‐0.4 ‐1.3 %YTD   0.1 0.3 0.8 ‐0.7 3.7 3.2 7.5 10.5 6.4 6.1 3.9 31.3 0.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.4 2.1 0.3 3.0 5.6 5.1 10.0 10.0 ‐4.0 ‐0.9 ‐0.2 0.3 01 0.1 0.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.8 1.0 3.0 ‐0 9 ‐0.9 1.4 1.2 2.1 7.4 8.5 29 2.9 3.2 3.6 1.7 ‐12.1 2.9 64 6.4 ‐14.6 4.0 25.0 %QTD %YTD  ‐0.4 0.5 ‐1.2 1.7 ‐2.3 2.3 ‐0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 32 3.2 0.7 ‐2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.1 ‐2.9 2.8 5.8 18.5 ‐11.8 11.8 ‐0.4 2.8 ‐2.2 ‐0.1 ‐1.1 56 5.6 5.1 ‐1.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 06 0.6 0.0 0.0 Global Currencies 1,727.5 MSCI EM Index 2,175.5 18,495.7 5,204.6 56,919.8 %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI)  MSCI World – USD S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg   Americas  ‐0.1 ‐1.4 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg c. 9 AM Muscat Time Index Closing  % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD US Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  US Vs G P USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  95.730 1.116 1.308 101.470 1.300 8.472 0.975 6.641 7.756 66.890 0 769 0.769 13114.000 2.962 0.385 3.673 3.750 0 302 0.302 3.641 0.377 0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 0.1 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐0 0.1 1 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.4 0.6 ‐1.7 1.7 1.0 ‐0.6 ‐0.1 0.0 0.2 13 1.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 01 0.1 0.0 0.0 8/11/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 4
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD Index  %YTD  Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  750.0 2.0 15.4 21.0 NYMEX Crude 41.5 ‐0.5 ‐0.3 ‐15.3 ‐2.1 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 615.0 1.7 2.5 7.9 ICE Brent Crude 43.8 ‐0.5 0.7 ‐12.6 1.6 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 620.0 1.6 2.5 7.8 Crude Oil, Oman  41.7 ‐1.9 4.6 ‐12.7 33.5 Benzene CFR India Spot 625.0 1.6 2.5 7.8 NYMEX Natural Gas  26 2.6 05 0.5 ‐10.5 10 5 ‐11.8 11 8 21 2.1 129.7 ‐0.3 ‐1.7 ‐14.0 ‐10.6 NYMEX Gasoline  C d Condensates (in USD/ MT)  (i USD/ MT) Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,341.5 ‐0.4 ‐0.7 1.5 26.4 Sil Silver Spot S t 20 0 20.0 ‐0 7 ‐0.7 ‐1 6 ‐1.6 70 7.0 44 4 44.4 Platinum Spot  1,172.0 ‐0.4 2.0 14.4 31.2 Palladium Spot  721.9 ‐0.6 1.7 20.9 28.3 1,634.3 , 0.3 ‐0.1 ‐0.5 8.9 LME Copper‐Spot 4,816.3 1.0 ‐2.0 ‐0.5 2.3 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,284.3 0.6 1.9 8.7 LME Lead‐Spot 1,810.0 0.9 ‐0.2 1.4 0.7 LME Nickel‐Spot p 10,815.0 0.7 2.2 15.0 23.2 596.0 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  CBOT ‐ Soya bean  43.4 0.0 0.2 ‐0.7 42.9 0.2 ‐2.7 ‐10.2 ‐12.9 442.5 0.2 1.5 ‐4.9 ‐12.8 986.8 0.5 ‐1.6 ‐14.4 11.8 ‐2.7 ‐3.3 33.5 1.1 ‐10.8 ‐15.7 ‐13.8 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 351.9 0.4 ‐14.2 ‐7.7 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  38.1 2.4 ‐16.1 ‐13.6 965.0 ‐2.0 ‐3.5 8.4 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,045.0 ‐1.0 ‐1.0 ‐1.4 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,040.0 ‐1.0 ‐1.0 ‐1.0 705.0 0.7 2.2 20.5 2EH CFR Far East Asia 750.0 0.7 ‐2.0 11.1 2EH CFR South East Asia 790.0 0.6 ‐3.1 13.7 DOP CFR Far East Asia 770.0 ‐4.4 ‐6.7 ‐2.5 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  / 333.5 638.0 ‐17.2 2.2 Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  8,885.0 1.7 4.7 NA Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,130.0 ‐0.4 1.4 8.7 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,155.0 ‐1.3 2.2 10.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,160.0 ‐2.5 1.8 9.4 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  Shipping  Baltic Dry Index  y ‐9.1 354.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Agriculture  Corn ‐ Active Contract  345.5 Naphtha C&F Japan  Ethylene Spot  Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  European Naptha  Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot LME Aluminium Spot Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  1,218.0 ‐3.7 ‐7.7 ‐16.0 UREA Cornbelt 215.0 ‐2.3 ‐10.4 ‐27.1 UREA Middle East 185.0 0.0 ‐11.9 ‐22.9 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 382.5 3.6 ‐2.4 ‐11.0 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg c. 9 AM Muscat Time 8/11/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Oman Banking sector data ‐ June 2016 (Source: ONA)  As at end of June 2016, the total assets of conventional commercial banks increased by 6.1% YoY to RO 29.1 billion in June 2016 from RO 27.4 billion a year ago.  Of the total assets, credit disbursement accounted for 66.6% and increased by 8.6% as at the end of June 2016 to RO 19.4 billion. Credit to the private sector increased by 9.8% 9 8% to reach RO 17.1 17 1 billion as at the end of June 2016. 2016  Conventional banks’ overall investments in securities stood at RO 2.6 billion as at the end of June 2016. Investment in Government Development Bonds and Government Sukuk increased by 37.9% over the year to RO 920.6 million at the end of June 2016.  Banks invested RO 420.5 million in Government Treasury Bills as at the end of June 2016. Conventional banks banks’ investments in foreign securities stood at RO 667.4 million in June 2016.  Aggregate deposits held with conventional banks registered a decline of 1.6% to RO 18.2 billion in June 2016 from RO 18.5 billion a year ago.  Government deposits with conventional banks declined by 10.5% to RO 4.8 billion. Deposits of public enterprises increased by 4.2% to RO 1.1 billion during the same period.  Private sector deposits, which constituted 65.8% of total deposits with conventional banks, increased by 2.1% to RO 12 billion in June 2016 from RO 11.7 billion a year ago.  The core capital and reserves of conventional banks stood at RO 3.7 billion as at the end of the June 2016, increase of 12.2% YoY.  Islamic banking entities provided financing to the extent of RO 2.1 billion as at the end of June 2016 when compared to RO 1.4 billion a year ago. Total deposits held with Islamic banks and windows increased to RO 1.8 billion in June 2016 from RO 1.1 billion in June 2015.  The total assets of Islamic banks and Windows combined, amounted to RO 2.7 billion as at the end of June 2016, which constituted about 8.4% of the banking system assets. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Oman says to change Iran gas pipeline route to avoid UAE (Source: Reuters)  Oman and Iran have agreed to change the route and design of a planned undersea natural gas pipeline to avoid waters controlled by the United Arab Emirates, as per news sources Oman's Minister of Oil and Gas said.  Oman and Iran were at an advanced stage of designing the pipeline and had agreed on a deeper option than originally envisaged to avoid crossing any third country country’ss borders. borders  Instead of the shallower option at around 300 meters (985 feet) deep, the pipeline is to plunge close to 1,000 meters below the sea's surface. And it will be slightly shorter.  p to invite companies p before the end of 2016 to bid for the engineering, g g, p procurement and construction p part of the Oman still expects project, Oil and Gas minister said without giving an estimate for the cost.  The pipeline would be financed on a 50‐50 basis by Oman and Iran.  predicted the p pipeline p would be commissioned two yyears after the award of contracts, but conceded that the level of ggas The minister p prices might delay the project, adding that the pipeline would not be profitable in today's market environment. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – To see negative trend, dull volumes to remain as key concern… During the previous trading session, we saw yet another day of range bound activity in the GCC markets; while Qatar continued its outperformance f amid id incremental i l flows. fl Th local The l l MSM Index I d continued i d to reveall consolidation lid i trend d along l with i h dull d ll market k participation. We anticipate the local and the regional markets to open on a negative note for the last trading day of the week and the activity to remain stock specific with the last leg of Q2 earnings coming in the regional markets. We expect the overall activity to remain lackluster on the back of lack in fresh news triggers over the short term. On a technical perspective, MSM support seen at 5,860 levels and the resistance is seen around 5,920 points. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News Dubai rents fall further but rates near bottom (Source: Gulf News)  Both tenants and property buyers in Dubai continued to enjoy bargaining power in recent months, but it won’t be too long before rents and house prices will once again pick up, as per research  The residential market is currently at a cyclical trough, having softened by about 15% since its peak in mid‐2014. Providing there are no major externall shocks h k over the h rest off the h year, we expect the h Dubai b residential d l market k to recover in early l 2017, said d JLL in its report.  According to the managing director of Phidar Advisory, the rent correction will likely continue for another 12 to 18 months, adding that the market will stabilise only in the middle to late 2017.  IIn Abu Ab Dhabi, Dh bi property t rental t l prices i registered i t d an overallll average decline, d li with ith prices i off one‐, two‐ t and d three‐bedroom th b d apartments t t falling f lli by b 2%, 1% and 4$, respectively compared to the first three months of the year.  Three‐bed flats in Abu Dhabi Corniche and Sadiyaat Island experienced the biggest drop by 11% and 15% with annual rental values at Dh160,000 and Dh220,000 respectively. Deyaar spins off facilities management unit (Source: Gulf News)  Deyaar Development announced that it is spinning off its facilities management unit into a separate company. The company will be called Deyaar Facilities Managements and will be 100% owned by Deyaar Development.  Deyaar Facilities Management will retain in its portfolio of 500 properties and nearly 20,000 units that it managed as a division of Deyaar Development, the statement said. TAQA says planning to return to bond market (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi National Energy Co (TAQA) plans to return to the bond market later this year or early 2017 to manage maturing debt, as per news sources quoting its chief financial officer.  TAQA has a $750 million bond coming due in March 2017 and another $500 million bond in October 2017. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC  News Saudi to open stock market wider to foreigners on Sept 4 (Source: Trade Arabia)  In May, the Capital Market Authority (CMA) announced it would ease ownership limits and minimum qualifications for overseas institutions by mid‐2017. In a statement CMA said the reforms would take effect on September 4.  Among the reforms, each asset manager will only need to have a minimum of $1 billion of assets under management globally to qualify as a foreign institutional investor in Saudi Arabia, Arabia instead of the current minimum of $5 billion. billion  Each foreign institutional investor will be allowed to own directly a stake of just under 10% of a single listed company, up from the current ceiling of 5%.  pp , includingg a ceilingg of 10% % on combined ownership p byy foreign g institutions of the market's entire Other restrictions will be scrapped, capitalization. All foreign investors combined will still be limited to owning 49% of any single firm. Saudi oil output data ‐ July 2016  (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia pumped 10.67 10 67 million barrels per day of crude in July, July according to figures it provided to OPEC, OPEC up from 10.55 10 55 million bpd in June and above the record of 10.56 million bpd achieved in June 2015. While OPEC pumped 33.11 million bpd in July, up 46,000 bpd from June. Mumtalakat acquires equity stake in Envirogen Group (Source: Gulf Base)  Mumtalakat, the investment arm of the Kingdom of Bahrain, announces its acquisition of a significant equity stake in a UK‐based specialized water treatment company, Envirogen Group S.A..  The acquisition was completed along side Gecos Invest S.A. and Hermes GPE Environmental Innovation Fund LP through a joint investment syndicate led by Promethean UK Opportunities Fund II, II LP (("PUOFII") PUOFII ).  Through its strategic alliance with Mumtalakat, Envirogen aims to expand its operations into the Kingdom of Bahrain and the GCC region to serve the vastly growing regional demand for effective water treatment solutions. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 8/11/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 11