GCC Equity Market Monitor - 5 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g June 5, 2017 6/5/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 25.0% 20 0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return MTD Return QTD Return O Oman S di Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) UAE (ADX) K i PI Kuwait ‐ ‐0.1% 0.9% ‐0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Kuwait ‐ Wtd ‐0.2% ‐6.1% 0.1% ‐2.2% ‐3.9% 0.8% ‐1.1% ‐5.4% 0.1% ‐4.0% ‐1.4% 1.3% 0.9% 18.8% 0.7% ‐2.8% 6.6% 0.2% ‐2.0% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Q Qatar B h i Bahrain ‐0.2% 0.6% ‐4.9% 0.2% ‐4.5% 9.2% 1.0% ‐1.7%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 3.670 million (c. US$ 9.5 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Raysut Cement Industry 1,463,144 39.9% BUY SELL NET 3,450,802 3,450,802  3,096,303 3,096,303  354,499 354,499  Ooredoo Services 474 232 474,232 12 9% 12.9% GCC 173,576  122,260  51,316  Alizz Islamic Bank Banking 291,948 8.0% Arabs 31,646  33,691  (2,045) Renaissance Services Services 168,614 4.6% OTHERS 13,804  417,573  (403,769) Bank Nizwa Banking 161,592 4.4% OMANIS MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,249,301  13.1 1.1 5.9% MSM 30 5,427.89 5,435.41 ‐0.14% 0.11% ‐6.14% Financial 3,373,438  8.5 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,103.74 8,112.26 ‐0.11% 0.52% 5.63% Industrial 908,155  12.9 1.3 5.4% Industrial 7,310.47 7,322.07 ‐0.16% 0.21% ‐1.31% Services 2,625,897  61.6 1.7 7.0% Services 2,748.09 2,759.24 ‐0.40% ‐0.84% ‐10.16% MSM Shariah 2,456,900  13.1 1.5 6.7% 799.33 798.62 0.09% 0.77% ‐8.02% MSM Shariah 6/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 13,495.3 0.2 1.2 2,179.3 0.0 0.2 5,735.4 0.2 0.6 24,289.2 0.5 0.3 528.5 ‐0.3 0.1 98,867.9 1.5 1.4 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 119.9 0.5 0.8 97.6 0.5 0.7 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index %QTD %YTD   3.9 ‐3.2 3.5 1.7 ‐1.9 11.2 9.3 0.4 4.5 ‐0.7 ‐0.3 26.5 ‐0.4 ‐1.0 ‐1.5 ‐1.8 1,008.0 0.0 0.7 ‐0.9 0.5 1,639.7 469 0 469.0 569.0 879.0 512.1 0.0 06 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 10 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 ‐0.1 ‐0.6 06 5.9 6.7 ‐0.4 4.3 ‐1.6 16 13.9 16.7 ‐1.4 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,439.1 21,206.3 6,305.8 62,510.7 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,547.6 5,343.4 12,822.9 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 20,220.9 25,856.9 31 282 0 31,282.0 3,089.7 2,372.2 1,046.0 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  0.6 1.2 4.4 10.5 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,902.3 1.0 1.3 6.1 12.5 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,700.4 0.7 0.9 8.3 15.6 MSCI EM Index 1,015.1 0.7 1.0 5.9 17.7 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 586 0 586.0 09 0.9 09 0.9 43 4.3 63 6.3 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 230.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 ‐0.4 ‐3.2 ‐5.6 Commodity (Bloomberg)  82.6 0.4 ‐0.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   0.4 0.3 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.7 ‐0.3 3.2 2.6 6.7 ‐3.8 8.9 7.3 17.1 3.8 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 3.1 4.3 4.1 5.7 9.9 11.7 2.9 0.8 04 0.4 ‐0.9 1.1 ‐0.7 6.9 7.2 56 5.6 ‐4.1 9.8 ‐6.1 5.8 17.5 17 5 17.5 ‐0.5 17.1 ‐9.2 %QTD %YTD %YTD  ‐3.5 5.8 ‐1.2 0.7 2.5 3.9 4.0 1.2 ‐0.3 0.8 ‐2.3 0.3 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐5.3 7.1 ‐0.3 5.7 4.3 5.5 5.7 2.1 ‐0.5 5.6 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 ‐0.1 0.0 0.2 ‐0.3 00 0.0 ‐0.5 0.0 0.0 Global Currencies 1,935.2 Commodity  %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 96.825 1.127 1.348 110.670 1.287 8.632 0.965 6.804 7.791 64.350 0.746 13288.000 3.507 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.303 3.645 0.377 0.1 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 ‐0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 ‐0.1 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  Index  Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  Benzene FOB Korea Spot 815.0 755.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 760.0 ‐1.3 ‐6.2 ‐9.0 Benzene CFR India Spot 765.0 ‐1.3 ‐6.1 ‐8.9 ‐8.9 ‐9.7 NYMEX Crude 48.3 1.3 ‐0.1 ‐6.1 ‐14.9 ICE Brent Crude 50.6 1.3 ‐0.3 ‐6.3 ‐14.0 Crude Oil, Oman  48.8 ‐1.6 ‐2.3 ‐6.0 ‐10.1 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.0 1.1 ‐1.3 ‐8.6 ‐15.4 158.7 0.6 ‐0.6 ‐5.8 ‐14.2 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,280.3 0.1 0.9 2.5 11.1 Silver Spot 17.6 0.0 1.3 ‐3.9 10.3 Platinum Spot  950.0 ‐0.4 0.0 ‐0.1 5.1 Palladium Spot  836.0 0.2 2.5 4.7 22.0 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 929 3 1,929.3 03 0.3 02 0.2 ‐1.2 12 13 2 13.2 LME Copper‐Spot 5,640.0 ‐0.6 ‐0.3 ‐3.0 2.1 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,514.5 ‐1.7 ‐2.8 ‐8.6 ‐1.7 LME Lead‐Spot 2,089.3 0.0 ‐0.5 ‐10.4 4.5 LME Nickel‐Spot 8 874 3 8,874.3 09 0.9 ‐0.5 05 ‐10.9 10 9 ‐10.9 10 9 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  575.0 0.0 0.0 ‐5.7 ‐5.4 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  374 3 374.3 04 0.4 06 0.6 07 0.7 27 2.7 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  432.3 0.6 0.7 ‐1.5 ‐0.5 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  923.8 0.3 0.8 ‐3.5 ‐9.3 ‐5 5 ‐5.5 ‐36 0 ‐36.0 ‐13 6 ‐13.6 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  830 0 830.0 ‐2 4 ‐2.4 %MTD %QTD %YTD ‐0.6 ‐6.2 ‐4.1 ‐9.0 Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Closing 0.6 ‐1.3 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  418.3 ‐3.7 Naphtha C&F Japan  426.0 ‐2.4 ‐9.2 ‐14.2 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 419.0 ‐2.2 ‐10.6 ‐13.8 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  46.1 ‐2.5 ‐9.2 ‐14.1 ‐6.7 20.0 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,110.0 ‐8.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 980.0 ‐15.5 ‐10.5 ‐11.3 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 975.0 ‐15.6 ‐10.6 ‐11.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot 860 0 860.0 89 8.9 30 3.0 ‐0.6 06 9.8 Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 955.0 2.1 ‐7.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 975.0 2.1 ‐7.1 9.6 DOP CFR Far East Asia 985.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  8,940.0 ‐2.2 ‐2.3 ‐8.4 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,090.0 ‐3.5 ‐4.4 ‐6.8 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,110.0 ‐4.3 ‐4.3 ‐5.1 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,130.0 ‐2.6 ‐3.4 0.0 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,600.0 2.6 ‐3.6 3.2 UREA Cornbelt 225.0 0.0 ‐10.0 ‐18.2 UREA Middle East 199.0 ‐5.2 ‐6.1 ‐18.8 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 340 8 340.8 ‐2.8 28 ‐8.0 80 ‐1.3 13 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Oman eyes status as global logistics hub (Source: Oman Observer)  Oman Global Logistics Group, representing the Omani government’s interests in transportation and logistics sectors of the economy, has been conferred an invigorated and comprehensive mandate to help achieve the nation’s long‐term ambitions as an international logistics hub under a new avatar. It also seeks to position the Sultanate as one of the top 10 logistics‐centric economies of the world by 2040.  The wholly government government‐owned owned holding company company’ss new brand was unveiled yesterday. The branding represents another milestone in the evolution of an entity tasked by the government to spearhead the implementation of the National Logistics Strategy 2040.  The National Logistics Strategy 2040 has identified a number of objectives designed to boost the share of the logistics sectors in the GDP to reach RO 14 billion in 2040, alongside the creation of 300,000 jobs in the sector. Omantel provides world‐class technology and telecom services at airports (Source: Times of Oman)  Omantel has entered into an agreement with the Sultanate’s leading airports in Muscat, Salalah, Sohar, and Duqm to become the main network and smart solutions provider.  This partnership aims at enhancing the performance of airports across the Sultanate, in all aspects especially safety and security. Airports in Oman are connected to each other by a standardized network of fixed mobile telecommunications services, broadband internet services, and fibre optics provided by Omantel.  Omantel offers the latest technical solutions and telecommunication services for a number of institutions such as the General Authority of Civil Aviation, Oman Airports Management Co (OAMC), Oman Air, as well as to small and medium enterprises operating within the airports.  Upon completion, the project will allow for advanced fixed telecommunication capabilities and connectivity for all airports throughout the Sultanate and will provide greater efficiency and convenience for passengers and airport staff. Alizz Islamic, Orpic sign contract to finance construction of petcoke storage facility  (Source: Oman Observer) Alizz Islamic Bank signed an agreement with Oman Oil Refineries and Petroleum Industries Company (Orpic) to provide Islamic financing facilities for the construction of a Petroleum Coke (petcoke) storage facility at the company’s refinery complex in Suhar. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Diplomatic tensions to impact regional equities, MSM to find support closer to 5,400 levels… During the previous trading session, we saw yet another day of mixed closing among the regional markets with the outperformance trend seen in Saudi on expectations of MSCI EM announcement during later part of this month. In Oman, we saw the market trading sideways along with select block transactions which dominated the trade for the day. day We anticipate the MSM and the GCC equities to open in red for the day and to see the negative impact of the recent diplomatic tensions. Over the short term, the equity risk aversion to increase within the region and also see the overall market participation to remain dull. MSM would find stronger technical support at 5,400 levels, while the resistance is seen around 5,460 points. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. UAE  News Dana Gas appoints advisers for $700 million sukuk restructuring (Source: Reuters)  Dana Gas appointed Houlihan Lokey as financial adviser and Squire Patton Boggs as legal adviser for the restructuring of its $700 million sukuk maturing in October, as per news sources.  The company, which has been facing a cash shortage because of missed payments from its assets in Egypt and Iraq’s Kurdistan, announced in early May its intention to hold discussions with the sukuk holders.  Dana’s creditors have appointed New York‐based bank Moelis and U.S. legal firm Weil, Gotshal & Mangers as financial and legal advisers to negotiate the restructuring of the Islamic bonds.  Dana said id at the h beginning b i i off May that h it i needed d d to focus f on “medium‐term “ di cash h preservation” i ” because b off the h challenges h ll i faced it f d over cash h collections. As of the end of March, the company’s cash balance was $298 million.  The company announced on May 18 that it had received a $50 million payment from the Egyptian government, representing 18% of the company’s total overdue receivables from Egypt as of the end of the first quarter of this year. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. GCC  News Saudi Arabia trade surplus data – March 2017 (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia's trade balance recorded a surplus of SAR 31.6 billion in March 2017, versus a surplus of SAR 5.24 billion in the same month last year, as per news sources. March’s figures marked the highest in more than a year.  Total exports rose 31% year‐on‐year (YoY) to SAR 70.2 billion in March, while imports fell 20% YoY to SAR 38.65 billion. The increase in exports was driven by a 43 percent YoY rise in oil exports, exports which account for 76.7 76 7 percent of the kingdom kingdom’ss total exports, exports to SAR 53.86 53 86 billion. billion  Non‐oil exports also increased 2% YoY to SAR 16.34 billion. Kuwait picks EY to value its stock exchange for potential IPO (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait has picked accounting firm EY to do a valuation of its stock exchange, as per news sources. The country has been considering an initial public offering of its stock market for years, but political infighting and entrenched bureaucracy have held up the process.  The Capital Markets Authority (CMA) has asked EY to complete a valuation of Boursa Kuwait’s assets and prepare a timetable for a listing. KSA issues public consultation on draft VAT (Source: Gulf Base)  Following the publication of the GCC VAT framework agreement, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has become the first GCC country to publish its draft VAT law. An official bilingual version of the draft VAT law in Arabic and English can be found here.  The General Authority of Zakat and Tax has also issued public consultation inviting comments on the provisions of the draft VAT law by way of an electronic form made available on their website. The deadline for the submission of feedback is June 29, 2017.  VAT is expected to be introduced in KSA from January 1, 2018. Among other things, the draft VAT law includes provisions on the imposition of tax, taxable persons, supplies of goods and services, place of supply, exempt and zero rated supplies, taxable value, imports, calculation of tax, procedure and administration and penalties and fines.  The KSA draft VAT law, which is based on the common principles set out in the GCC Framework agreement, will be supplemented by executive regulations. These regulations, which are yet to be issued, will provide more detail on the VAT treatment of specific goods and industryy sectors. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 10