GCC Equity Market Monitor

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g April 13, 2016 4/13/2016
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ‐2.0% ‐4.0% ‐6.0% ‐8.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) 0.8% 6.0% 4.8% 1.5% 7.4% ‐7.4% 1.5% 10.2% 3.5% 3.0% UAE (Abu  Dhabi) 0.4% 2.3% 0.4% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 ‐0.2% 6.1% ‐6.1% Kuwait  ‐ Wtd ‐0.3% 5.3% ‐5.3% 0.9% 0.4% Kuwait ‐ PI Qatar Bahrain 0.9% 1.8% ‐1.8% 0.5% 7.7% ‐7.7% ‐1.3% ‐0.8%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day’s Turnover: RO 8.211 million (c. US$ 21.4 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Galfar Engineering Const/Eng. 1,277,301 15.56% Bank Nizwa k Banking k 1,253,369 15.27% Al Anwar Holding Inv Hldg 929,816 11.32% BUY SELL NET 7 362 465 7,362,465  7 356 403 7,356,403  6,062 6,062  GCC 90,048  236,288  (146,239) Arabs 385,223  292,093  93,129  Bank Sohar Banking 786,536 9.58% OTHERS 372,773  325,724  47,048  Bank Muscat Banking 470,409 5.73% OMANIS MSM Lead Indicators MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,362,292  12.1 1.2 5.5% MSM 30 5,728.72 5,681.22 0.84% 4.78% 5.97% Financial 3,116,658  8.1 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,426.31 7,330.69 1.30% 7.52% 14.65% Industrial 1,038,843  19.9 1.5 5.0% Industrial 6,963.75 6,881.76 1.19% 4.53% 2.84% Services 2,984,733  21.2 1.9 5.9% Services 3,156.53 3,146.63 0.31% 1.77% 3.30% MSM Shariah 3,321,056  17.7 1.8 5.6% 860.79 855.30 0.64% 2.60% 0.63% MSM Shariah 4/13/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg   MENA  %MTD %QTD %YTD   ‐2.6 ‐0.9 ‐0.6 1.3 0.3 0 0.5 4.6 ‐0.1 6.8 6.0 ‐4.7 16.7 6 1.5 1.7 0.3 13 1.3 ‐0.1 ‐0.4 1.3 ‐3.8 ‐4.0 3.2 ‐3 3.9 9 ‐2.7 ‐1.7 ‐3.5 7,331.1 ‐0.2 ‐2.6 2,133.4 0.0 ‐0.9 5,386.6 ‐0.4 ‐0.6 20,136.2 0.3 1.3 507.7 0.1 0.3 83 9 8 83,719.8 ‐0.3 03 0 0.5 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 111.1 0.9 1.5 91.6 0.9 1.7 1,493.4 0.5 0.3 435 9 435.9 09 0.9 13 1.3 492.3 0.6 ‐0.1 427.9 0.8 ‐0.4 476.4 0.8 1.3 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index Index  Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  0.7 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 ‐1.1 MSCI W ld E USA MSCI World ‐Ex USA 1 635 4 1,635.4 04 0.4 ‐0 7 ‐0.7 ‐0 7 ‐0.7 ‐3 4 ‐3.4 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,460.2 0.0 ‐1.0 ‐1.0 ‐4.1 830.9 0.8 ‐0.7 ‐0.7 4.6 Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 593.5 ‐0.6 0.4 0.4 8.7 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 230.6 ‐0.4 ‐0.5 ‐0.5 2.8 2.6 3.0 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  80.9 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 6,242.4 4,345.9 9,761.5 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 16,338.3 20,993.8 25 528 8 25,528.8 3,086.5 1,981.3 911.1 %YTD   1.0 0.9 0.8 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.9 0.9 1.7 ‐2.7 20.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 ‐0.9 ‐2.0 1.1 ‐0.9 ‐2.0 0.0 ‐6.3 ‐9.1 ‐2.5 1.0 07 0.7 2.7 ‐0.7 4.0 ‐2.5 1.0 07 0.7 2.7 ‐0.7 4.0 ‐14.2 ‐4.2 ‐2 3 ‐2.3 ‐12.8 1.0 20.3 %QTD %YTD  ‐0.4 ‐0.1 1.9 3.4 ‐0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.2 05 0.5 1.0 ‐0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 01 0.1 0.0 0.0 ‐4.5 4.6 8.4 10.4 ‐3.2 3.2 4.2 4.7 0.4 ‐0.1 ‐0.3 56 5.6 5.2 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 07 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.4 15 1.5 2.1 0.6 1.1 Global Currencies 1,644.2 MSCI EM Index 2,061.7 17,721.3 4,872.1 52,001.9 %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI)  MSCI World – USD S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg   Americas  0.0 2.6 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg c. 9 AM Muscat Time Index Closing  % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD US Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  US Vs G P USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  94.192 1.137 1.277 108.920 1.426 8.101 0.957 6.465 7.755 66.378 0 770 0.770 13107.000 2.835 0.385 3.673 3.750 0 301 0.301 3.642 0.377 0.2 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 0.1 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 02 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 01 0.0 0.0 ‐0.4 ‐0.1 1.9 3.4 ‐0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.2 05 0.5 1.0 ‐0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 01 0.1 0.0 0.0 4/13/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 4
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  Index  Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  o at cs ( US / ) Energy  Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  680.0 ‐4.2 ‐4.2 9.7 NYMEX Crude 41.7 ‐1.0 8.9 8.9 4.4 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 630.0 2.4 2.4 10.5 ICE Brent Crude 44.4 ‐0.7 10.0 10.0 10.2 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 635.0 2.4 2.4 10.4 Crude Oil, Oman  41.1 4.6 14.2 14.2 31.8 Benzene CFR India Spot 640.0 2.4 2.4 10.3 NYMEX Natural Gas  20 2.0 08 0.8 31 3.1 31 3.1 ‐16.7 16 7 152.9 ‐0.3 5.7 5.7 0.5 NYMEX Gasoline  C d Condensates (in USD/ MT)  (i USD/ MT) Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,249.5 ‐0.5 1.4 1.4 17.7 Sil Silver Spot S t 16 0 16.0 ‐0 9 ‐0.9 39 3.9 39 3.9 15 8 15.8 Platinum Spot  996.3 ‐0.4 2.1 2.1 11.6 Palladium Spot  549.4 1.0 ‐2.6 ‐2.6 ‐2.3 1,523.5 , 1.9 0.8 0.8 1.5 LME Copper‐Spot 4,788.5 2.4 ‐1.9 ‐1.9 1.8 LME Zinc‐Spot 1,820.5 4.1 0.7 0.7 LME Lead‐Spot 1,714.8 1.8 1.1 1.1 ‐4.6 LME Nickel‐Spot p 8,829.8 3.6 4.5 4.5 0.6 478.0 0.0 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  CBOT ‐ Soya bean  14.3 ‐0.4 ‐0.4 16.6 0.1 2.9 2.9 ‐1.2 459.0 0.1 ‐4.5 ‐4.5 ‐5.0 944.5 0.9 3.7 3.7 8.6 30.5 30.5 17.2 0.9 ‐2.7 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 390.3 7.0 7.0 2.4 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  42.9 3.6 3.6 ‐2.6 940.0 8.1 8.1 5.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,185.0 ‐2.1 ‐2.1 11.8 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,180.0 ‐2.1 ‐2.1 12.4 670.0 1.5 1.5 14.5 2EH CFR Far East Asia 785.0 ‐1.3 ‐1.3 16.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 805.0 ‐1.2 ‐1.2 15.8 DOP CFR Far East Asia 875.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 ‐0.4 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  / 366.0 560.0 ‐1.5 3.2 Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  ‐0.4 ‐0.4 10.7 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 0.4 0.4 13.5 0.4 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 0.8 0.8 16.2 0.8 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1.6 1.6 17.0 1.6 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  Shipping  Baltic Dry Index  y 8.8 3.2 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Agriculture  Corn ‐ Active Contract  8.8 399.3 Ethylene Spot  Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  381.6 Naphtha C&F Japan  Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot LME Aluminium Spot European Naptha  1,425.0 0.7 0.7 ‐1.7 UREA Cornbelt 300.0 ‐4.8 ‐4.8 1.7 UREA Middle East 208.0 1.5 1.5 ‐13.3 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 424.4 3.3 3.3 ‐1.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg c. 9 AM Muscat Time 4/13/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Oman Cement reports Q1 2016 results (PAT‐ Below our estimates) (Source: MSM)  Total sales of the company for the quarter stood at RO 15.827 million as compared to RO 14.689 million in the same period of last year, an increase of 7.74% YoY. This is marginally above our estimates of RO 15.3 million.  Total expenses for Q1 stood at RO 12.409 million, an increase of 8.9% YoY. While Net profit after tax of the company is at RO 3.843 million as compared to RO 3.832 million in the same period last year, increase of 0.3% Sharqiyah Desalination reports Q1 2016 results (Source: MSM)  Total revenue of the company for the quarter stood at RO 2.389 2 389 million, million reporting a decline of 7% YoY. YoY While total expenses (including finance costs) has declined by 6% YoY to RO 2.287 million  Net profit after tax for the period is at RO 93K as compared to RO 126K in the previous year same period, a decline of 26% YoY. Ubar Hotels and Resorts reports Q1 2016 results (Source: MSM)  Total revenue of the group company is at RO 1.489 million as compared to RO 1.617 million in the same period of last year. While operating profit of the group lowered to RO 455K as against RO 540K in the corresponding period last year  Net profit of the group company for Q1 2016 stood at RO 344K as compared to RO 410K in the Q1 2015, declining by 16.1% YoY GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Cost  Reflective Tariffs for large power consumers in Oman (Source: Oman Observer)  Oman’s government has given its nod for the implementation of Cost Reflective Tariffs for large electricity consumers primarily industrial,  commercial and government customers in Oman, according to news sources quoting a senior official of Electricity Regulation Oman (AER)  Cost Reflective Tariffs reflect the true cost of supplying electricity to customers. The proposed tariff scheme effectively eliminates the  g p pp y y reliance on government subsidies to cover the variance between the permitted tariff and the true cost of supply of electricity.  According to the Authority for Electricity Regulation, the Industrial and commercial customers accounted for 36% of total supply in 2014, up  from 23% in 2005. Treasury Bills Tender Results  y ((Source: ONA))  A tender of Government Treasury Bills, was held at the Central Bank of Oman this week with total value allotted amounted to RO 20 million,  for a maturity period of 28 days, from 13 April until next 11 May, 2016.  g p p y , p p p The average accepted price reached 99.955 for every RO 100, while the minimum accepted price arrived at 99.950 per RO 100. Whereas  the average discount rate and the average yield reached 0.59313% and 0.59340%, respectively.  The interest rate on the Repo operations with CBO is 1% for the period from 12/04/2016 to 18/04/2016, while the discount rate on the  Treasury Bills Discounting Facility with CBO is 1.75%, for the same period. Oman Crude Oil Production data‐ March 2016  (Source: ONA)  The Sultanate’s total production of crude oil and condensates amounted during Mar 2016 to 30.264 million barrels, a daily rate of 976,253  barrels, recording a decline by 3.69% compared with Feb 2016.  Total quantities of crude oil exported abroad during March 2016 stood at 30,968,930 barrels, a daily rate of 998,998 barrels, comprising a  rise by 12.95% compared to Feb 2016.  The import of China rose by 8% in March 2016, compared to the previous month. The United States of America (USA) competed some  traditional importers in Asia as it came second after China by 6.62% so as to equalize with the quantities exported to South Korea.  GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Risk on rally to continue amid improved global market cues and higher oil prices… During the previous trading session, all the GCC markets ended on a stronger note, except for Kuwait amid buying continued across the board along with increased market participation. MSM had eight consecutive sessions of positive closing lead by improved market sentiments and on active traders participation. MSM is trading 6% positive year to date, the second best performing market in the region. We expect the MSM and the GCC equities to open on a stronger note for the day and to see the risk on rally continuing lead by improved global market cues and also on higher oil prices. We would still maintain our cautious view ahead of the April 17th meeting in Doha between OPEC and Non‐OPEC members, which would determine the direction of the market during rest of the year. MSM technically trading closer to 200 day moving average levels (5,730 (5 730 points), points) breaking these levels would lead to further momentum driven rally. rally GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News New 3% municipal fee for expats renting homes (Source: Gulf News)  Renting a home in Abu Dhabi emirate now includes a municipal fee for expatriates, calculated as a minimum of three per cent of annual rent each year.  The fee is being collected by the emirate’s utilities provider, the Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority, in instalments, and is a minimum of Dh450 per year. Emiratis renting property will be exempt from the payment.  Accordingly, the fees have been implemented since the beginning of March. They will be used by the emirate’s municipal regulator, the Department of Municipal Affairs and Transport, for the registration of rental units and the regulation of the rental market. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC  News Qatar sets new regulations for bank foreign currency holdings (Source: Arabian Business)  Qatar's central bank has issued a circular for the banks which has set the maximum limit for dollar open positions, surplus and deficit at 25% cent of capital and reserves, while the limit set for all other foreign currencies was set at 5%.  The aggregate open positions for all foreign currencies combined was set at 30 per cent of bank capital and reserves, the circular said. Banks have a 12‐month grace period to comply to the new regulations, the circular said. Saudi British Bank reports Q1 2016 results (Source: Reuters)  Saudi British Bank (SABB), posted a 2.4% rise in Q1 net profit of SR 1.14 billion compared with SR 1.12 billion in the same period a year earlier.  The bank attributed the rise to higher net special commission income, which jumped 8.3% year on year to 1.12 billion riyals. This offset a lower gain on the sale of non trading investments, while operating expenses rose 3.6% mainly due to an increase in provisioning. NCB reports Q1 2016 results (Source: Reuters)  National Commercial Bank (NCB) reported a 1% rise in Q1 net profit of SR 2.63 billion, up from 2.61 billion riyals in the same period of 2015.  NCB attributed its earnings performance in the quarter to a 5.5% increase in operating income to 4.69 billion riyals, which in turn was aided by a 9.9% jump to 3.34 billion riyals in income from special commissions.  Loans and advances at the end of March stood at 265.34 billion riyals, up 16.8% year on year basis. Deposits at the bank, sank 4.9% year on year to 326.1 billion riyals at the end of March, continuing the decline in levels seen in Q4 2015.. Acwa, China's Harbin near $1.4bn loan deal for Dubai plant (Source: Trade Arabia)  A consortium including China's Harbin Electric and Saudi Arabia's Acwa Power aims to secure a loan of up to $1.4 billion before the end of Q1 to finance a 1,200 MW clean coal power plant in Dubai, as per news sources.  The companies are in talks about the club loan with Export‐Import Bank of China and lenders including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China , Bankk off China, Chi Chi Standard S d d Chartered Ch d , Abu b Dhabi's h bi' First i Gulf G lf Bankk (FGB) ( G ) and d Saudi S di Arabia's bi ' Samba S b Financial i i l Group, G the h sources said. id GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC  News Fitch lowers Saudi rating over oil slide (Source: Reuters)  Fitch Ratings lowered Saudi Arabia’s long‐term credit rating, saying the plunge in oil prices had “major negative implications”. The agency also noted increased tensions with long‐time rival Iran and greater uncertainty over economic policy.  Fitch downgraded the kingdom’s credit rating to AA‐ from AA, which still denotes expectations of very low default risk. The outlook remains negative, indicating a further cut is likely.  Fitch said it had revised downwards its oil price assumptions for this year and next, to $35 and $45 a barrel, which “has major negative implications for Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and external balances”. Saudi Arabia lifts export bans on cement, steel (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia has lifted a ban on exporting cement, a senior industry official was quoted, while an industry source indicated a similar ban on steel has also been eased.  The relaxing of the bans comes as the kingdom's construction industry is suffering from the impact of lower oil prices, which has resulted in the government cutting back on spending on many projects.  As per the chief executive of Yanbu Cement Co and the deputy head of the national committee of cement companies, that cement companies welcomed the move but were awaiting details of the new rules from the Ministry of Commerce.  Steel rebar exports have been similarly restricted. However, an industry source said the ban on such construction rods had been lifted around 10 days ago. Ahli Bank completes $500 million debut bond transaction (Source: Reuters)  Qatar's Ahli Bank said that it had completed a $500 million debut bond issue. The tenure of the issue would be five years, the bank said  The lender, rated A+ by Fitch and A2 by Moody's, set the final spread at 260 basis points over midswaps, tighter than initial guidance in the area of 275 bps over the same benchmark, as per news sources. GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 4/13/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 12