GCC Daily Market Update - 8 August

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 9 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,180.9 18,529.3 4,784.7 6,809.1 10,432.4 4,415.5 77,779.1 16,650.6 22,494.8 3,004.3 28,182.6 (2.0) (14.2) (6.5) 15.7 65.2 4.9 1,713.4 396.1 348.7 27.6 104.2 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 0.6 0.1 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.9 (0.5) 3.1 0.5 2.8 0.8 0.5 6.7 6.3 4.2 9.1 (2.9) (4.8) 8.4 (12.5) 2.6 (15.1) 7.9 10,920.3 6,319.3 4,548.8 3,511.0 5,516.1 5,886.8 1,155.0 1,513.2 2,972.0 130.9 29.8 2.6 (0.3) 24.5 12.3 (2.1) 0.0 (0.2) 1.2 0.5 0.1 (0.0) 0.5 0.2 (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) 3.0 0.3 (0.6) 0.8 1.2 0.7 (0.1) (0.4) (0.0) 4.7 (8.6) 5.6 11.4 (1.8) 8.9 (5.0) 6.1 6.2 45.4 43.0 2.7 1,333.4 216.5 1.1 1.2 (0.0) (3.0) 1.1 2.5 2.9 (0.9) (0.2) 0.5 6.1 2.7 (4.8) (1.2) (2.8) 20.9 15.4 17.2 25.8 1.1 Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global markets ended higher on Monday. US Indices slipped amidst thin volumes after posting record close on Friday on back of upbeat job data. The broader indices were weighed down by Healthcare stocks. However, Energy shares majorly offset the negative impact as oil prices soared, after OPEC raised prospects of an output freeze in its informal meet in September. European stocks finished higher propped up by gains in the shares of major banks and other financial stocks. The Banking sector got support from a 3.6% rise at Barclays after Exane BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to "outperform". German benchmark rose 0.6% after data showed that German industrial output rose 0.8% in June, marking a slightly stronger-than-expected reading. Asian stocks surged led by Japan’s Nikkei which rose 2.4% tracking a strong lead from Wall Street overnight and a fall in yen. GCC Most of the gulf stocks edged up on Monday supported by buoyant global markets and gains in oil prices. Saudi’s Index rose 0.5% with the Petrochemical sector gaining for a third session in a row, supported by a 2.5% gain in Brent. Dubai’s Index ended the session flat as investors booked profits on recent gains. Abu Dhabi’s Index added 0.1% supported by midcap share. The Kuwait Stock Exchange Index was up 0.5 % supported by banking shares Qatar Qatar outperformed its gulf peers closing at a nine-month high, supported by buying interests in the banking and telecom stocks. The bourse got a boost from optimism surrounding global equities and gains in oil prices. Foreign institutions’ increased buying, supported the market, however gains were capped as domestic and gulf institutions turned bearish on bourse. In terms of volume, Telecom, Banking and Real estate stocks constituted about 72% of the total traded. Out of 44 stocks listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 27 gained, 13 declined and 2 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.4 1.7 3.8 139.0 DSM 20 15.2 1.7 3.7 120.5 10,500 10 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.9 1.5 3.9 880.9 10,000 5 UAE (ADX) 12.3 1.5 5.4 31.9 UAE (DFM) 12.2 1.3 4.3 55.1 Kuwait (KSE) 19.2 1.0 4.3 20.1 Oman (MSM) 10.3 1.2 5.0 6.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.6 0.4 4.7 1.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Vodafone Qatar United Devpt. Co Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar Islamic Bank Al Ahli Bank Top Losers Doha Insurance Co QGRI Dlala Holding Medicare Group QIMD Close Price 12.4 20.7 40.4 115.5 42.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.8 1.0 6.0 3.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 (2.6) (0.2) (12.1) 8.2 (4.2) (17.5) 2,474.7 NA (18.2) 311.3 15.7 (27.7) 145.8 19.4 5.9 632.8 12.9 (11.6) 1.6 12.5 21.0 45.5 24.9 95.0 44.5 (1.0) (1.9) (0.6) (1.0) (0.5) (4.5) (3.9) (2.2) (1.0) (1.0) 0.0 (2.2) 34.7 (20.4) 11.5 (17.3) (6.7) 3.1 (46.6) (1.8) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 3.9 9.7 4.1 4.5 216.6 NA 33.6 18.4 8.3 11.7 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 9,500 12/May 15 10,920.3 0 26/May 9/Jun 23/Jun Index Volume (mn) 7/Jul 21/Jul 4/Aug Index Value Closing Level 2,981.1 6,587.5 3,279.9 4,327.6 2,738.5 1,207.4 2,588.6 1D Change (%) 1.8 0.2 0.5 (0.1) 0.9 1.0 0.2 Buy (%) 29.9 37.4 67.3 7.4 25.3 32.7 Sell (%) 31.5 48.3 79.8 11.1 9.1 20.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 9 , 2016 personal loans, or consumer loan portfolios, which stood at OMR 7,512.30mn at the end of March-16, according to the Central Bank of Oman. The aggregate personal loan portfolio of Omani banks constitutes 39.4% of total bank credit of OMR 19,053.24mn at the end of March-16. (Source: Times of Oman) GLOBAL NEWS  German industrial output rose 0.8% MoM in June-16 compared to a fall of 0.9% MoM in May-16, according to the Federal Statistical OfficeDestatis. (Source: Reuters)  China's CPI grew 1.8% YoY in July-16, down from 1.9% YoY in June-16, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The slower growth of food prices was the main factor weighing on the inflation figure. China’s PPI declined 1.7% YoY in July-16, compared to a 2.6% YoY drop in the previous month. (Source: The Australian)  The M2 money stock in Japan was up 3.3% YoY to reach JPY 941.8tn in July-16, according to the Bank of Japan. The M3 money stock was up an annual 2.9% to JPY 1,263.5tn. The L money stock advanced an annual 1.7% to JPY 1,650.3tn after climbing 2.0% a month earlier.  Oman registered a 19% YoY drop in tourist arrivals in June-16, impacting the hospitality industry and other sectors, according to the National Centre for Statistics and Information. Total number of tourist visitors reached 123,000 during the month. (Source: Gulf Business)  The Central Bank of Bahrain’s weekly issue of Government Treasury Bills (issue date of 10th July-16), amounting to BHD70 mn, with a weighted average rate of interest of 2.05% and maturity of 91 days, has been oversubscribed by 163%. (Source: CBB)  Bahrain based Al Baraka Banking Group reported a 2.8% fall in Q2-16 net profit to USD 43.6mn as compared to USD 44.8mn in Q2-15. Total operating income increased by 7% to reach USD 538mn in H1-16 compared to USD 502mn during the same period of 2015. (Source: CPI (Source: RTT)   Greece’s annual EU-harmonized inflation rate remained unchanged at 0.2% in July-16 compared to June-16, due to higher cost of foods, nonalcoholic beverages, healthcare and hotel costs. (Source: Reuters) Turkey's industrial production decreased 1.4% MoM in July-16 compared to June-16, according to the Turkey's statistics agency. The manufacturing index dropped 2.4% MoM, while non-durable consumer goods saw the largest decrease of 4.8% MoM for the same period. (Source: Anadolu Agency) GCC NEWS     The overall number of new commercial licenses registered by the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development, ADDED's Abu Dhabi Business Centre, has reached 4,787 during H1-16. Q1-16 has seen 2,339 licenses while Q2-16 scored 2,448 licenses, which brought the overall number of licenses in Abu Dhabi to 110,445. (Source: Zawya) The total value of Sharjah real estate investments implemented in H116 amounted to AED 12.1bn, while the total number of real estate transactions carried out by the Department reached 25,474 during the same period, General Director of the Sharjah Real Estate Registration Department said. For May-16, transactions recorded an increase of 114% YoY to AED 3.4bn. (Source: Zawya) Abu Dhabi National Exhibitions Company has reported AED 1.32bn (USD 359.30mn) in direct and indirect economic impact during H1-16. The company said that it drew more than 812,000 visitors to its conferences and exhibitions at Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre and Al Ain Convention Centre in H1-16. (Source: Arabian Business) Emirates Investment Bank reported a 19.4% increase in net profit to AED 7.88mn in Q2-16 as compared to AED 6.60mn in Q2-15. (Source: CPI Financial)  Bahrain-based Investcorp announced that it has agreed to the sale of Crisps Topco Limited (Tyrrells) to Amplify Snack Brands Inc for GBP 300mn (USD 391.4mn). Tyrrells is a UK-based premium manufacturer of hand-cooked potato and vegetable crisps, popcorn and other savoury snacks which was acquired by Investcorp in August-13 for GBP 100mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait's Agility reported an 11% rise in Q2-16 net profit to KWD 15 mn, compared with KWD 14mn in the same period a year earlier. The results outperformed the forecast because of better-than-expected earnings from the infrastructure business. The company’s quarterly revenue was KWD 309mn, down from KWD 328mn a year earlier. (Source: Arabian Business)  (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  UAE based Amanat Holdings announced a net profit of AED 23.8mn (USD 6.5mn) for H1-16 as compared to AED 1.6mn for the same period in 2015. The huge increase followed improved yield rates on deposit and on the contribution of associates. Yield on deposits came at an average of 2.88% in H1-16, compared with 1.63% in H1-15. (Source:  Qatar’s initiatives to increase private sector participation in national economic development will enhance private investments and trigger private sector demand for credit, according the Qatar Central Bank Governor. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airways, along with four other Gulf Cooperation Council companies, are among the 100 global companies in the Boston Consulting Group’s 2016 Global Challengers. The top 100 group highlights the company that are rapidly expanding and globalizing. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha Insurance reported net profit of QAR 20.9mn in H1-16 compared to QAR 44.4mn in H1-15. EPS amounted to QAR 0.42 in H1-16 compared to QAR 0.89 for the same period in 2015. (Source: QSE)  Al Meera Consumer Goods reported net profit of QAR 102.4mn compared to QAR 100.9mn in H1-15. EPS amounted to QAR 5.12 in H116 compared to QAR 5.04 for the same period in 2015. (Source: QSE)  Qatar’s bilateral trade with Turkey could double as it sees no economic or political risks in Turkey, despite the 15th July-16 coup attempt, Qatari Ambassador to Turkey said. (Source: Anadolu Agency)  Hill International’s JV with ASTAD Engineering Consultancy and Qatar Project Management Company has won a 30 month extension from Qatar Railways Company to oversee construction of Doha Metro Green Rail. The JV will earn USD 43.1mn from the extended contract, with Hill taking an 80% share of the amount. (Source: Construction Week) Arabian Business)   Dubai’s Amlak Finance reported net profit of AED 87.4mn in H1-16, compared to AED 14.6mn for the same period last year. The results were supported by strong revenue growth in Q1-16 generated from one-off sale of land plots. Total revenue reached AED 465mn in H1-16 compared to AED 214mn in H1-15. (Source: Arabian Business) Investments in theme parks, infrastructure and retail in Saudi Arabia will further boost the billion dollar printing industry, according to International Expo Consults. The total printing revenues alone is forecast to grow 7.2% per annum reaching USD 26bn by 2018. (Source: Gulf Base)  Oman’s conventional banks posted a 10.8% growth in aggregate Qatar’s LNG industry will continue to be the most competitive and reliable, backed by its first-mover cost advantage and an efficient delivery mechanism, the Minister of Energy and Industry said. (Source: Gulf Times) Financial)  Kuwait Food Co (Americana) posted a 31% rise in net profit to KWD 9.0mn (USD 30.0mn) in Q2-16, compared with KWD 6.9mn in Q2-15. 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 9 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1118 USD/QAR 3.6415 102.4500 EUR/QAR 4.0486 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3070 JPY/QAR 0.0355 USD/CHF 0.9824 GBP/QAR 4.7594 USD/CAD 1.3154 CHF/QAR 3.7067 AUD/USD 0.7651 CAD/QAR 2.7684 NZD/USD 0.7138 AUD/QAR 2.7861 USD/INR 66.3450 INR/QAR 0.0549 USD/TRY 2.9824 TRY/QAR 1.2210 USD/ZAR 13.5749 ZAR/QAR 0.2683 USD/BRL 3.1728 BRL/QAR 1.1477 FX Commentary USD continued its upward trajectory on Monday as strong US jobs data on Friday reassured investors about the health of the US economy. Federalfunds futures are now pricing in a 48% chance of an interest-rate increase at the Fed’s December policy meeting, which is further boosting the greenback. JPY closed lower despite posting an above estimate current account surplus, which improved to JPY 1.65tn, up from JPY 1.45tn a month earlier. This figure beat the forecast of JPY 1.60tn and marked a 3-month high. The weakness in JPY can be majorly attributed due to a rebound in risk appetite following strong US job data. EUR and GBP closed in red, majorly due to gains in USD. CAD gained against its US counterpart as a rebound in oil prices lent support to the Canadian currency, nevertheless Friday’s upbeat US jobs data capped gains. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.44 0.50 0.79 1.48 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.05) 1.05 1.17 1.36 1.55 1.84 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.03 2.25 2.51 EIBOR 0.34 0.44 0.71 1.17 1.75 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.31 1.56 2.19 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.08% 5.0% 1.86% 2.5% 0.58% 0.0% 1.00% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 31.6 UK Germany France 1.74% 2.0% 2.31% 1.01% 1.0% 0.98% 1.48% 1.32% 1.19% 2.70% 1.84% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 2.29% 1.27% 1.54% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.80% Source: Bloomberg 2.04% 2.29% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 2.29% 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 9.5 Turkey 247.7 (54.0) 35.5 3.4 Brazil 270.9 (209.9) 16.9 (0.7) Egypt 449.6 (38.4) 32.4 (8.4) Abu Dhabi 80.0 (54.8) Italy 123.9 (27.7) Bahrain 372.3 (19.3) Greece 978.7 (566.7) Dubai 168.0 (112.3) Russia 213.0 (140.4) Qatar 110.0 (30.4) Japan 33.0 (17.5) Saudi Arabia 179.5 (10.5) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:30 UK Industrial Production MoM Jun 0.10% (0.50%) 11:30 UK Manufacturing Production MoM Jun (0.20%) (0.50%) 17:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Jun 0.00% 0.00% 2:50 Japan Machine Orders MoM Jun 3.20% (1.40%) 2:50 Japan PPI YoY Jul (4.00%) (4.20%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Kuwait Food Co (Americana) NA NA Agility NA NA Mezzan Holding Co Kscc NA Gulf Pharmaceutical Ind Psc Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA 9.03 31.27 (40.56) NA 15.02 10.81 14.64 NA NA 4.81 (31.58) (7.29) 389.69 (3.03) 5.32 54.81 (22.86) (30.25) Amlak Finance NA NA NA (36.68) (611.36) (130.05) Amanat Holdings Pjsc NA NA NA 14.35 NM 51.72 Al-Salam Bank NA NA NA 4.06 (21.20) (12.69) Bmmi Bsc NA NA NA 1.22 (48.07) (55.16) 322.28 (65.17) (2.27) 14.79 (66.98) 41.46 National Marine Dredging Co Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 9 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 4th August 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 7.6 0.0 8.0 1.6 5.9 4.7 2.8 0.0 3.9 6.3 1.9 5.4 3.3 5.2 4.1 4.6 5.0 0.0 8.5 4.2 4.4 4.9 7.2 2.8 4.7 5.7 3.7 3.3 2.5 6.7 3.8 4.3 4.1 4.7 2.4 3.0 6.5 2.8 6.2 2.5 1.9 7.6 3.7 3.2 1.8 2.9 2.1 5.1 5.7 5.0 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.8 1.1 2.7 1.0 2.4 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.5 1.6 2.1 1.4 0.8 4.0 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8 3.5 2.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.0 2.4 0.7 3.1 1.6 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.0 14.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.6 359.4 9.5 13.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 49.9 12.3 12.3 10.9 30.1 11.5 18.5 26.3 13.4 11.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.6 14.8 7.5 13.0 13.1 18.6 16.1 8.2 20.3 16.1 22.3 11.8 10.9 15.9 22.1 9.8 17.7 4.5 13.0 11.8 17.1 30.2 13.6 15.1 23.9 11.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.9 17.0 13.6 10.1 12.3 14.0 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.8 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 2.2 4.4 10.2 4.7 5.2 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.4 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.4 62.4 20.9 73.5 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 41.5 12.2 21.0 53.8 50.5 10.8 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.1 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 20.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 40.3 39.4 25.7 37.4 65.3 17.0 37.0 17.8 11.9 110.0 64.0 155.0 11.2 95.4 221.0 32.4 152.7 12.2 11.8 64.1 90.2 13.2 35.7 105.9 88.0 19.1 227.0 51.0 45.0 87.0 24.2 21.2 78.5 46.0 61.5 0.0 35.6 19.7 14.1 19.8 94.6 11.4 57.8 24.4 88.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4