GCC Daily Market Update - 8 May

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP May 08 , 2016 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Region Event Japan Jobless Rate Period Survey Japan Industrial Production MoM Mar P Mar Actual Prior 3.30% 3.20% 3.30% 2.80% 3.60% (5.20%) US Initial Jobless Claims Apr-23rd US GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q A Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Apr-22nd -- 388.6b 386.2b France CPI YoY Apr P (0.10%) (0.20%) (0.10%) Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Apr P (0.10%) (0.30%) (0.20%) US ISM Manufacturing Apr 51.4 50.8 51.8 US Initial Jobless Claims Apr-30th Russia CPI YoY Apr Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Apr-29th US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 259k 257k 248k 0.70% 0.50% 1.40% 260k 274k 257k 7.40% 7.30% 7.30% -- 390.1b 388.6b 200k 160k 208k Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS  US trade deficit shrank more than forecast. It narrowed 13.9% MoM to USD 40.4bn in Mar-16. (Source: Bloomberg)  US labor productivity fell by 1.0% in the Q1-16 after sliding by 1.7% in the Q4-15. Meanwhile, unit labor costs surged by 4.1% in Q1-16 following a 2.7% jump in the Q4-15. (Source: Nasdaq)   US Purchasing Managers’ Index dipped to 50.8 in Apr-16 from 51.8 in Mar-16, mainly due to a slowdown in the pace of growth in new orders. (Source: Nasdaq) British construction growth eased to the weakest level in almost three years to 52.0 in Apr-16 from 54.2 in Mar-16, raising fresh concerns over the forthcoming EU membership referendum. (Source: UST 10yr Bond 2.00 1.90 1.70 1.60 1.50 Feb-16 Eurozone factory PMI rose marginally to 51.7 in Apr-16 from 51.6 in Mar-16, with output not losing as much momentum as initially thought but growth in manufacturing activity remaining weak. (Source:  Australia's Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low 1.75% as it responded to record low inflation and a strong local currency. (Source: ABC News) Australia’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit fell by 29% MoM to AUD 2.16bn in Mar-16 from AUD 3.04bn in Feb-16. The exports rose 4% MoM in Mar-16, while the imports rose 1% MoM in the same period. IMF stated that the Bahraini Banking sector would remain well capitalized and liquid, driven by strengthen in the regulation and supervision by Central Bank of Bahrain. (Source: Gulf News)  Oman’s natural gas production and imports grew by 8.3% YOY to 10,206mn cubic meters (MNCM) in Q1-16. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman has planned to build a major oil storage terminal on its southeastern coast, spending between USD 300mn and USD 400mn on the first phase, Minister of Oil and Gas said. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s population increased 9% YoY and 1.27% MoM to 2,559,267 as of 30th April-16. (Source: Doha news)  The combined Q1-16 net profit of all companies listed on Qatar Stock Exchange decreased by 18.9% YoY to QAR 10.8bn. (Source: QSE)  Government and public sector deposits in Qatar banks increased by QAR 5.4bn MoM to QAR 209.4bn in Mar-16. The sector's total loans increased about QAR 3.5bn MoM to QAR 255.7bn. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar’s total broad money supply (M2) was recorded at about QAR 506bn during Mar-16, up 0.23% MoM. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar will seek to raise up to USD 5bn from a planned bond sale as early as May-16, as a decline in energy prices impact the nation’s finances. (Source: Bloomberg)  With hyper-connectivity and e-commerce, Qatar's business-tobusiness and business-to-consumer markets are set to grow from USD 2.3bn in 2014 to USD 4.3bn in 2019. (Source: Zawya)  S&P has cut Commercial Bank of Qatar’s rating to BBB+ with negative outlook, while outlook for Qatar Islamic Bank and Doha Bank has been changed to negative from stable. Qatar National Bank’s ratings was affirmed with stable outlook. (Source: Bloomberg)  The combined value of Qatar’s real estate transactions showed over 57% growth during the 4th week of April (from 24th - 28th). It amounted to QAR 580.6mn, compared with QAR 369mn during the previous week. (Source: the Peninsula)  Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund is hiring more external advisors and using more of the country’s cash to buy assets in the US and Asia. Qatar Investment Authority would invest USD 35bn in the US and USD 2bn in Russia. (Source: Doha News)  About 1.3 mn expatriate workers have benefitted from the wage protection system in Qatar, which makes it mandatory on employers to transfer salaries on time to their bank accounts. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar’s mobile subscriber base expanded by 9.7% YoY in 2015 and expected to reach to 4.86mn at the end 2016, according to Fitch Group. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Business Insider)  Turkish manufacturing PMI fell from 49.2 in Mar-16 to 48.9 in Apr-16, to its lowest rate in seven months, driven by declines in output, new orders and exports. (Source: Business Recorder) GCC NEWS  Saudi Arabian Central Bank reported a fall of 1.0% MoM to SAR 2.2tn in net foreign assets in Mar-16. (Source: Reuters)  Sharjah’s trade deficit was AED 3.58bn (4.3% of GDP) in 2015, the highest since 2008. (Source: CPI Financial)  UAE's non-oil private sector lost some growth momentum, as the seasonally adjusted headline Emirates NBD UAE PMI stood at 52.8 in Apr-16, down from 54.5 in Mar-16. (Source: Khaleej Times)  UAE supplied 29.1mn barrels of crude oil to Japan in Mar-16. This accounts for 26.3% of Japan’s total crude oil import. (Source: HSN)  Fuel prices in UAE to rise by about 10% from 1st May-16. Diesel price will increase from AED 1.56 to AED 1.60. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwaiti MP has proposed to introduce up to 5% tax on expat remittances, which will provide increased revenue for the state. (Source: Arabian Business) Apr-16 May-16  Reuters)  Feb-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Source: Bloomberg London South East)  1.74 1.80 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP May 08 , 2016 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,057.1 (0.4) (0.4) 0.6 MSCI EM 805.3 (4.1) (4.1) 1.4 17,740.6 (0.2) (0.2) 1.8 S&P GCC 1,465.3 (3.5) (3.5) 1.3 Nasdaq 4,330.2 (0.3) (0.3) (5.7) Dow Jones Islamic 2,794.9 (1.5) (1.5) (0.2) FTSE 100 6,125.7 (1.9) (1.9) (1.9) KSA (TASI) 6,656.4 (2.2) (2.2) (3.7) DAX 30 9,870.0 (1.7) (1.7) (8.1) UAE (DFM) 3,307.6 (5.3) (5.3) 5.0 CAC 40 4,301.2 (2.9) (2.9) (7.2) UAE (ADX) 4,428.6 (2.5) (2.5) 2.8 BIST 100 78,368.1 (8.2) (8.2) 9.3 Qatar (DSM) 9,748.8 (4.3) (4.3) (6.5) Nikkei S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 16,106.7 (3.4) (3.4) (15.4) Kuwait (KSE) 5,373.2 (0.3) (0.3) (4.3) Sh. Comp 2,913.2 (0.9) (0.9) (17.7) Bahrain (BAX) 1,112.8 0.2 0.2 (8.5) Hang Seng 20,109.9 (4.5) (4.5) (8.2) Oman (MSM) 5,979.8 0.6 0.6 10.6 Sensex 25,228.5 (1.5) (1.5) (3.4) Jordan (ASEGI) 2,103.4 0.4 0.4 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 0.4 Jordan (ASEGI) DJIA Nasdaq S&P 500 Sh. Comp Sensex DAX 30 FTSE 100 CAC 40 Nikkei MSCI EM Hang Seng BIST 100 (8.2) (10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 9.3 BIST 100 DJIA MSCI EM S&P 500 Jordan (ASEGI) FTSE 100 Sensex Nasdaq CAC 40 DAX 30 Hang Seng Nikkei (15.4) Sh. Comp (17.7) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (0.9) (1.5) (1.7) (1.9) (2.9) (3.4) (4.1) (4.5) 2.0 Source: Bloomberg 1.8 1.4 0.6 (1.5) (1.9) (3.4) (5.7) (7.2) (8.1) (8.2) (20.0) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Oman (MSM) 0.6 Bahrain (BAX) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) KSA (TASI) S&P GCC (0.2) KSA (TASI) Kuwait (KSE) (3.5) (3.7) (4.3) Qatar (DSM) (6.5) (4.3) UAE (DFM) (5.3) (6.0) 1.3 Dow Jones Islamic (2.2) (2.5) Qatar (DSM) 2.8 S&P GCC (1.5) UAE (ADX) 5.0 UAE (ADX) (0.3) Dow Jones Islamic 10.6 UAE (DFM) 0.2 Bahrain (BAX) (8.5) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 Source: Bloomberg (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Global Global markets fell over the week amid enduring signs of sluggish global economic growth. US manufacturing expanded at a lesser pace in April, as did manufacturing activity in China, the UK and Japan. US indices edged down marginally over the week which also saw nonfarm payroll growth falling short of consensus estimates. DJIA and S&P 500 dropped 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Nasdaq slumped 0.3%, weighed down partially by poor performance of Biotechnology shares. European markets ended the week in red, weighed down by Eurozone Banking and Mining shares. CAC 40 and DAX 30 fell 2.9% and 1.7%, respectively, while FTSE 100 lost 1.9%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 3.4% over the week, hit by a recent appreciation of the yen and unchanged monetary policy. The Shanghai Composite ended 0.9% lower for the week with both, official and private manufacturing purchasing manager index for April were weaker than expected. GCC Gulf markets closed on a pessimistic note, weighed by a 5.7% fall in Brent oil prices. Concerns on global growth also impacted the regional indices. Saudi benchmark closed the week 2.2% lower, weighed by Petchem stocks, which tracked oil prices lower. Losses were significantly contained on Friday after the index staged a strong rebound led by Banking and Petchem stocks. Banking stocks benefitted after the ban was lifted on Saudi Bin Laden group, which eased concerns on their debt books. Dubai’s index underperformed its peer indices closing 5.3% lower, as investors sold index major Emaar Properties, despite the reults of the company matching analyst’s expectation. Qatar QE index closed the week 4.3% down on weak buying interest by foreign institutions and increased net profit booking by their domestic counterparts. The sell-off was broad based, however significant impact was witnessed in Telecom, Real estate and Insurance counters. Of the 44 stocks, 36 declined, 6 advanced and 2 were unchanged during the week. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX Indicator 14,000 12,000 9,748.8 10,000 8,000 Nov-15 Dec-15 Index Feb-16 50 SMA 100 SMA Mar-16 200 SMA May-16 Price Last Close 9,748.8 MAVG 50 10,207.1 MAVG 100 9,932.5 MAVG 200 10,621.0 6 Month High 10,860.3 6 Month Low 8,516.8 RSI (14 Days) 28.7 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP May 08 , 2016 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 3.00 0.50 0.00 1.55 0.74 0.57 0.82 0.00 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current Last Year 7 Yrs 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) US 21.7 0.0 0.5 2.5 UK 36.5 1.7 (3.2) 17.7 Germany 18.1 0.0 (0.6) 5.6 France 38.8 (0.4) 6.3 12.8 Italy 131.5 5.5 (12.8) Greece 1165.17 (76.5) Russia 260.3 Japan Turkey Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGIB 2017 101.5 23.1 0.66 (0.0) (0.3) QGS 2018 101.2 51.0 1.19 NA (0.0) QGIB 2019 114.0 64.2 1.50 (0.1) (1.0) QGIB 2020 111.0 109.4 2.05 (0.1) 0.1 Qatari Diar 2020 110.9 116.3 2.26 NA (1.6) 34.8 QGIB 2022 110.8 121.3 2.40 (0.2) 1.1 (29.0) 83.1 QGS 2023 104.2 121.1 2.51 (0.1) 0.5 14.8 (39.5) (47.0) QGIB 2030 162.7 218.2 3.87 (1.3) 4.8 40.0 2.5 (6.5) (8.6) QGIB 2040 132.7 223.3 4.18 (1.4) 6.1 267.4 27.6 (1.1) (6.2) QGIB 2042 123.6 223.1 4.21 (1.4) 6.0 Global Brazil 339.4 4.1 (60.7) (164.8) Egypt 480.5 (4.3) (19.0) 1.7 Abu Dhabi 97.8 3.4 0.6 5.2 Bahrain 360.0 (0.6) (20.8) (5.6) Dubai 220.2 7.1 (7.0) (13.4) Qatar 103.8 5.2 6.8 11.2 Saudi Arabia 159.8 4.3 5.1 4.0 79.3 6.2 6.2 79.3 GCC Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates Tenor International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 5 Yrs Current Source: Bloomberg 5 Years CDS 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 2.20 1.75 1.00 0.50 1.23 2.58 1.28 1.50 4.15 2.46 2.30 2.00 1.78 2 Yrs 3.00 2.50 1.49 1.50 1.00 2.63 1.88 2.00 3.18 3.50 2.15 2.50 4.24 4.50 4.00 2.90 Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 0.632 (0.005) 0.019 6M LIBOR 0.908 0.004 0.062 12M LIBOR 1.230 0.001 0.052 2 years 0.875 (0.044) (0.304) 5 years 1.189 (0.078) (0.556) 10 years 1.629 (0.098) (0.559) 30 years 2.140 (0.074) (0.482) iTraxx Europe Crossover 331.3 20.2 20.2 331.3 Source: Bloomberg CDX North America IG 84.9 7.1 7.1 84.9 Commentary CDX North America HY 460.4 28.9 28.9 460.4 iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 83.2 9.2 9.2 83.2 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 141.5 9.4 9.4 141.5 Treasury prices rose this week on softer labor data, general risk aversion, and a decline in oil prices. Yields in Investment grade bond also fell on optimism surrounding the pickup in new deals following earnings announcements. The high yield market also advanced, however gains were capped by energy issuers after oil fell this week. Municipal bonds were little affected over the much anticipated default on Puertco Rico debt on Monday. The impat of default was strongly offset by tailwind in the Treasury market and continued strong investor demand. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP May 08 , 2016 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 45.4 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 44.7 Brent oil closed the week 5.7% lower on profit booking after the commodity surged ~20% in April. The losses were capped after oil staged a strong rebound on Friday supported by a dip in the dollar and a wildfire that shrunk the Canadian oil sands crude output by a third. Reports of a militant attack on a Chevron platform in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta region and a drop in the number of US oil drilling rigs also helped lift prices on the day. The US oil rig count fell by 4 this week, extending a decline to a seventh week, the lowest level since October 2009. Gold ended in green for the week as nonfarm payrolls in the US rose in April by its lowest level in seven months, placing a June interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve firmly in doubt. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.1 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,294.0 Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.5 Copper (USD/lb) 215.1 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) Gold Silver WTI Crude Natural Gas Copper Brent YTD Performance (%) Silver Gold Brent WTI Crude Copper Natural Gas 0.3 (1.6) (2.7) (3.5) (5.6) (5.7) (7.0) (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 26.8 22.1 21.7 20.6 0.7 (10.1) (20.0) Source: Bloomberg (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.4457 USD/INR 66.0550 EUR/USD 1.1434 USD/CNY 6.4960 CAD/USD 0.7747 USD/TRY 2.9276 AUD/USD 0.7366 USD/EGP 8.8776 NZD/USD 0.6831 USD/ZAR 14.8839 107.1200 USD/RUB 66.1679 USD/JPY Commentary USD closed the week higher against most of its peer currency, despite lukewarm manufacturing data, and the evidence of slowing US job market. CAD closed 2.7% lower against the dollar as wildfires raged in Canada’s most prolific oil fields. The AUD was also one of the worst performers for the week, ending 3.1% lower, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unexpected 25 bps cut in key lending rate and fall in oil prices. Other oil dependent currencies like RUB & NZD were also impacted. The EUR closed 0.7% in red as investors anticipated further easing following weak Eurozone manufacturing and retail PMI numbers. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) EGP INR CNY EUR JPY GBP RUB NZD CAD AUD ZAR TRY YTD Performance (%) JPY RUB CAD EUR ZAR AUD NZD CNY TRY INR GBP EGP (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.7) (1.3) (1.7) (2.1) (2.7) (3.1) (4.4) (4.5) (5.0) Source: Bloomberg (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 12.3 10.8 7.2 5.0 3.9 1.1 (0.1) (0.3) (0.6) (2.1) (11.8) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall Commercial Bank or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4