GCC Daily Market Update - 16 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 16 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,180.4 18,923.1 4,764.5 6,792.7 10,735.1 4,536.5 75,150.6 17,668.2 22,323.9 3,207.0 26,304.6 16.2 54.4 62.4 39.6 41.5 28.0 731.5 (4.5) 101.7 (3.4) (514.2) 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 (0.0) 0.5 (0.1) (1.9) 2.6 4.3 (0.8) (2.3) 0.7 0.6 (4.3) 1.4 (2.7) 3.4 (5.8) 6.7 8.6 3.7 8.8 (0.1) (2.2) 4.8 (7.2) 1.9 (9.4) 0.7 9,679.9 6,492.9 4,180.8 3,196.6 5,491.3 5,482.0 1,161.2 1,456.5 2,865.2 (65.1) (138.3) (4.4) (6.2) 22.0 65.1 0.0 (27.9) 17.7 (0.7) (2.1) (0.1) (0.2) 0.4 1.2 0.0 (1.9) 0.6 (4.8) 8.0 (2.8) (4.1) 1.7 0.0 1.1 (2.6) (0.8) (7.2) (6.1) (2.9) 1.4 (2.2) 1.4 (4.5) 1.2 2.5 47.0 45.8 2.7 1,224.5 250.5 2.5 2.5 (0.0) 2.8 (1.6) 5.7 5.8 (1.5) 0.2 (0.6) (3.4) (3.0) (10.1) (3.8) 13.2 25.2 22.8 16.3 15.5 16.9 Source: Bloomberg Global Most global markets gained marginally on Tuesday. US indices closed higher, lifted by a sharp rally in Energy stocks, while the Technology sector rebounded after a post-election sell-off. Bank stocks surged as bond yields rose, which allows them to make more money from lending. European benchmarks closed higher, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 up 0.3%, as President-elect Donald Trump's impact on the market continued its momentum and oil prices rebounded. Stable European GDP and strong sentiment indicator in Germany, offset the impact of weak German growth numbers. Asian stocks were mostly lower. The Shanghai composite fell 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei closed marginally lower as yen firmed. GCC GCC markets closed on a mixed note on Tuesday after MSCI adjusted its indices. Saudi Arabia’s index closed 2.1% lower with National Commercial Bank down 4.5%, hit by heavy profit-booking. Petrochemicals limited the downside, supported by rise in oil prices. Dubai's benchmarks edged down 0.2% as Builder Arabtec tumbled 4.7% after MSCI downgraded it to its small cap index. DXB Entertainments added 2.7% after MSCI upgraded the stock to its UAE standard index. Oman’s benchmark outperformed in peer indices, supported by attractive valuations. Financials led sectoral indices, advancing 1.7%. Qatar QE index closed 0.7% lower on Tuesday, for the fifth consecutive day, weighed by Vodafone Qatar, which fell 4.1% after it’s deletion from the MSCI emerging market index. Foreign and Gulf institutions as well as local retail investors turned net sellers in the bourse, however increased buying support from non-Qatari individual investors and bullish bets by domestic institutions and Gulf individuals capped the downside. Sell-off majorly concentrated in Real Estate (-1.5%), Telecom (-0.7%) and Insurance (-0.7%) sectors. Out of 44 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 22 declined, 15 advanced and 2 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.2 1.5 4.2 59.4 DSM 20 14.0 1.5 4.2 54.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.4 1.5 3.6 1,561.7 UAE (ADX) 10.8 1.3 5.9 61.0 UAE (DFM) 10.5 1.2 4.3 135.3 Kuwait (KSE) 18.7 1.0 4.3 66.7 Oman (MSM) 10.3 1.1 5.3 5.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.4 4.8 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Doha Insurance Co Qatar National Cement Gulf Warehousing Co. Dlala Holding Salam Intl Investment Top Losers Vodafone Qatar Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Commercial Bank Qsc Al Meera Cons Goods Qatar Industrial Manuf. Close Price 18.9 83.4 52.0 21.0 10.8 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 (10.0) (10.1) (8.6) 13.6 (8.5) (19.2) (9.3) (13.3) 5.1 (12.5) 9.7 19.3 31.6 165.4 42.0 (0.4) (0.7) (1.0) (3.6) (0.9) (4.1) (3.7) (3.1) (2.1) (2.1) (23.3) (36.7) (31.2) (24.8) 5.4 (22.5) 3,808.9 NA (37.1) 1.1 16.7 (36.8) 345.8 30.0 (24.8) 36.0 20.9 2.4 23.7 10.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 19.8 9.5 4.2 10.8 14.4 14.2 1.0 NA 83.1 10.5 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 21/Aug 30.0 20.0 9,679.9 10.0 0.0 4/Sep 18/Sep 2/Oct Index Volume (mn) 16/Oct 30/Oct 13/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,721.2 5,604.9 2,981.3 4,272.9 2,127.9 1,131.1 2,370.5 1D Change (%) (0.5) (0.3) (0.2) (0.7) (1.5) (0.7) (0.1) Buy (%) 35.6 21.7 57.4 13.1 29.5 42.6 Sell (%) 41.2 11.2 52.4 9.7 37.8 47.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 16 , 2016 car group’s engines. The tenure of the deal is three years. (Source: Trade GLOBAL NEWS  Moody’s said that the outlook for the Global Independent Exploration and Production (E&P) industry has been revised to positive from stable, reflecting expectations that EBITDA will grow by 20% to 30% in 2017 for the sector. (Source: Moody’s)  US import prices rose 0.5% MoM in October-16 supported by a 7.5% MoM surge in petroleum prices and a 0.3% MoM rise in price of motor vehicles. (Source: Reuters)  US retail sales rose 0.8% MoM compared to 0.3% MoM gain in September-16 due to rise in motor vehicle sales and demand for building materials as households cleaned up and made repairs in the wake of Hurricane Matthew. (Source: Reuters)  Vice President of European Commission said that the election of Donald Trump as US president has increased uncertainty in the banking sector and reducing the capital requirements would only make the situation more volatile. (Source: Reuters)  Arabia)  Methanol Chemical Company (Chemanol) announced that it has received an amount of USD 10 mn as a result of liquidating a performance bank guarantee. The company said that the liquidation process was due to the noncompliance of one of its marketers with its offtake and other contractual obligations. (Source: Tadawul stock exchange)  Moody’s revised its outlook for Oman's banking system to stable from negative. The agency expects that that Omani banks' credit profiles will remain broadly stable over the outlook horizon, as increased government borrowing and higher hydrocarbon output will support a level of public spending. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Container volumes at Oman’s Sohar Port rose 11.0% YoY in Q3-16, according to a report by Sohar Port and Free-zone. The overall tonnage at the port was up by 6.0% YoY to 13.4mn metric tons for the period. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Spanish construction company, Tecnicas Reunidas’ engineering unit has been awarded a design contract by Petroleum Development Oman for its Saih Rawl combined cycle power station project. The company has also been awarded a basic and front end engineering contract of a new bitumen refinery planned at Sohar Port. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Government Treasury Bills worth BHD 70.0mn issued by Central Bank of Bahrain with an issue date of 16th November-16 has been subscribed 100%. The bill with a maturity of 91-days has weighted average rate of interest of 2.05% compared to 2.03% for the previous issue on 09th November 2016. (Source: BNA)  Bahrain’s GFH Capital invested in AMA Group in the form of a Shari’a compliant convertible Murabaha facility. (Source: BNA)  Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (KAPP) is scheduled to offer the railway project’s tender for public bidding during H1-17. The project comprises of a railway network linking Kuwait City to the airport and marine ports as well as link Kuwait with other GCC states over a 511-km long two-way railway line. (Source: Zawya)  Privatization Holding recorded profits worth KWD 1.7 mn during the Q3-2016 compared to KWD 0.7 mn in Q3-2016 reflecting a surge of 149.0% mainly achieving net revenue from services as well as a share in an associate, according to company statement. (Source: Mubasher)  Warba Insurance’s losses in Q3-2016 stood at KWD 1.3 mn, compared to KWD 0.4 mn in Q3-15, according to a company statement. (Source: Eurozone GDP rose by 0.3% QoQ in Q3-16 which was unchanged from Q2-16 as underperformance of the German economy weighed on the bloc's growth. On an annual basis, the GDP rose by 1.6% in Q3-16. (Source: Reuters)  UK inflation weakened to 0.9% in October-16 from 1.0% in September16, however Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned higher prices are on the way, with cost pressures in factories already ballooning thanks to slump in GBP. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey unemployment rate rose by 1.2 percentage points to 11.3% compared to 0.1 percentage point fall in July-16. The number of unemployed persons aged 15 and above rose by 435,000 to 3.5mn in August-16, over the year. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS   Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE issued a law amending bylaws of a previous law on the Dubai Small and Medium Enterprises (DSME). The new law amends DSME objectives to include putting in place policies and strategic plans for the entrepreneurship and setting up projects. (Source: Zawya) Klampfer Middle East and Brayan Group have launched a partnership enterprise- Klampfer-Brayan Electro-mechanical contracting to service the UAE mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) sector. (Source: Trade Mubasher) Arabia)    Abu Dhabi Financial Group (ADFG) received the official approvals from the Central Bank of UAE and Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) to acquire stake in Shuaa Capital. The group will acquire 515 mn shares representing 48.36% of the company's capital. (Source: Mubasher) Sharjah’s travel sector generated revenues of AED 497mn in 9M-2016, according to Chairman of Sharjah Commerce and Tourism Development Authority. The number of tourists who visited Sharjah amounted to 1.3 mn guests, who spent 2.9 mn nights in the emirate’s hospitality facilities, 19% YoY up from the 2.5 mn nights spent in the emirate during the same period in 2015. (Source: Mubasher) Dubai-based Noor Bank has closed the syndication of AED 850.0mn (USD 231.5mn) Islamic loan for Ajman Bank. Noor Bank was the initial mandated lead arranger and book-runner for this 2-year facility. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s Easa Saleh Al Gurg Group is investing in the commercial real estate market in the UK, citing slow growth in Gulf markets. (Source: QATAR NEWS  Qatar consumer price index rose by 2.2% YoY in October-16 driven by 4.6% YoY rise in transport prices (14.6% weightage) and 2.7% YoY rise in prices for food and beverage segments (12.6% weightage). On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.4% for the period. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Business Incubation Centre signed a MoU with Paris&Co, the economic development and innovation agency of Paris establishing a mutually-beneficial relationship between Doha and Paris to support incubation of startups through the sharing of knowledge and services provided by each incubator. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Stock Exchange announces trading suspension of Commercial Bank shares on 16th Nov-16 due to its EGM being held on that day. (Source: Qatar Stock exchange)  MSCI downgraded Vodafone Qatar to its small cap index and has deleted the stock from its MSCI global standard index. The company has also added Qatar First Bank to its small cap index. (Source: Gulf News)  The indicative per unit value of ETFs, which will soon debut on the QSE, has been fixed at one-hundredth of the previous day’s close of the respective indices. Both the ETFs, which are expected to be launched are ready from the regulatory point of view. (Source: Gulf News) Zawya)  Emirates Global Aluminium, the largest industrial company in the UAE outside the oil and gas industry, will supply high quality UAE-made aluminium to BMW for use in the manufacture of some of the German 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 16 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0752 USD/QAR 3.6410 109.2000 EUR/QAR 3.9148 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2487 JPY/QAR 0.0333 USD/CHF 1.0018 GBP/QAR 4.5465 USD/CAD 1.3448 CHF/QAR 3.6345 AUD/USD 0.7559 CAD/QAR 2.7075 NZD/USD 0.7101 AUD/QAR 2.7522 USD/INR 67.2425 INR/QAR 0.0541 USD/TRY 3.2905 TRY/QAR 1.1065 USD/ZAR 14.1762 ZAR/QAR 0.2568 USD/BRL 3.4344 BRL/QAR 1.0602 FX Commentary USD started on a weak note as market optimism over the prospect of a Trump presidency began to wane due to a lack of concrete policy direction, but it later pared losses after release of strong US retail sales numbers which supported the outlook for an interest rate hike in December. CAD rose against its US counterpart as oil surged nearly 6% on expectations of production cut in OPEC meeting next month. Strong Canadian home resales and prices in October further supported the currency. GBP fell against greenback due to weak October inflation figures and a broad-based profit-booking on last week's rally. EUR fell as German growth came in below expectation. The currency however pared losses after encouraging trade surplus and German investor confidence data. JPY came under pressure due to risk-on market environment. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.54 0.91 1.61 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) QAIBOR 1.22 1.32 1.46 1.73 2.16 SAIBOR NA NA 1.95 2.18 2.53 EIBOR 0.41 0.50 0.75 1.30 1.98 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.39% 4.0% 2.25% 2.0% 2.70% 2.70% 1.81% 2.16% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.05% 2.95% 1.43% 0.65% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.0 7.6 Turkey 287.3 16.0 UK 38.5 1.5 Brazil 300.1 (28.1) Germany 23.0 3.5 Egypt 482.1 1.5 France 37.2 (2.2) Abu Dhabi 77.0 (17.2) Italy 156.9 26.9 Bahrain 359.1 (10.4) Greece 962.6 (64.6) Dubai 158.5 (52.2) Russia 226.5 (22.6) Qatar 99.0 1.0 Japan 33.0 (4.0) Saudi Arabia 141.0 (14.0) 2.0% 2.60% 1.23% 0.0% 1.87% 1.60% 2.07% 1.88% 1.68% 1.0% 2.13% 2.38% 0.94% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 12:30 UK Jobless Claims Change Oct 2.0k Prior 0.7k 12:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Sep 4.90% 4.90% 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Nov-11th - (1.20%) 16:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Oct 0.30% 0.30% 17:15 US Industrial Production MoM Oct 0.20% 0.10% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Al Ahli Bank Of Kuwait NA NA Kuwait Investment Co NA NA Tamdeen Real Estate Co Ksc NA NA NA Union Insurance Co NA NA NA Islamic Arab Insurance Com (4.3) (123.2) (90.6) (73.6) 49.2 15.3 Ifa Hotels & Resorts Co. K.S NA NA NA 0.1 (101.7) (96.3) Al Sagr National Insurance C NA NA NA (3.2) (92.9) (118.7) Eshraq Properties Co Pjsc Marka Pjsc Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA 4.8 (45.9) (34.9) NA (0.1) (88.2) (106.3) 1.1 (5.0) (31.9) (3.0) (167.0) (32.9) 6.4 148.2 54.3 (0.9) (68.7) (75.8) 65.9 (15.6) (26.4) (11.8) (19.6) (36.8) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 16 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.1 0.0 8.6 1.9 5.8 5.2 3.5 0.0 4.3 6.5 1.9 6.0 3.5 6.6 8.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.4 4.3 5.2 5.8 7.3 3.3 5.0 4.6 3.6 2.3 7.0 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.4 2.3 3.1 8.2 2.7 7.2 3.2 2.3 7.8 4.5 3.2 2.0 2.9 2.3 5.6 5.6 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.2 1.0 2.3 1.0 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.8 3.9 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.4 2.9 2.8 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 17.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.2 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.6 12.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.0 11.7 10.5 27.6 11.0 7.0 19.8 21.1 13.5 11.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.4 13.2 5.7 11.0 13.0 33.1 18.3 18.6 14.2 24.0 10.4 11.0 17.0 17.6 9.4 19.1 4.0 12.1 11.8 12.1 23.7 14.2 12.4 18.2 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.7 15.2 12.7 11.4 12.4 13.4 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 33.0 20.7 35.0 55.9 17.3 33.8 14.3 9.1 100.0 61.2 153.0 10.0 76.0 61.1 171.0 28.1 141.0 10.0 10.7 62.2 77.0 13.1 30.0 101.1 15.2 206.1 55.2 42.9 85.0 20.5 18.5 84.1 44.5 49.1 30.6 15.5 12.1 19.2 95.0 10.3 52.0 22.3 89.4 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4