GCC Daily Market Update - 1 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 1 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,097.0 17,787.2 4,523.9 6,230.8 10,262.7 4,505.6 77,803.4 17,235.0 20,815.1 2,916.6 26,668.0 (2.1) (86.0) 11.4 (40.0) (70.5) (23.8) (731.8) 167.0 185.7 94.2 (57.6) (0.1) (0.5) 0.3 (0.6) (0.7) (0.5) (0.9) 1.0 0.9 3.3 (0.2) 1.5 0.1 4.2 (0.2) 2.2 1.7 (8.8) 3.4 (1.2) (0.7) 4.1 2.6 2.1 (1.5) (0.2) (4.5) (2.8) 8.5 (9.5) (5.0) (17.6) 2.1 9,538.8 6,448.4 4,250.2 3,313.7 5,400.3 5,811.0 1,111.6 1,419.1 2,851.3 (13.3) 88.5 (9.3) 7.3 21.5 (27.6) 17.2 (18.9) (2.9) (0.1) 1.4 (0.2) 0.2 0.4 (0.5) 1.6 (1.3) (0.1) (6.4) (5.3) (6.5) (5.1) 0.2 (2.2) 0.1 (6.5) 0.5 (8.5) (6.7) (1.3) 5.2 (3.8) 7.5 (8.6) (1.8) 1.8 49.7 49.1 2.3 1,214.8 209.6 (0.1) (0.2) 0.1 1.0 (1.9) (0.1) (0.5) 5.5 0.1 (0.9) (0.3) (0.6) (0.3) (0.0) (1.2) 32.9 31.7 (2.4) 14.6 (3.1) Global Most Global markets ended in red on Tuesday. US stocks fell on weaker than expected economic data and fall in crude prices. DJIA and S&P 500 fell marginally, whereas Nasdaq gained 0.3%, led by strong performance by the Semiconductor sector. European markets closed lower as investors pondered key events ahead this week including meetings of the European Central Bank and OPEC. DAX 30, FTSE 100 and CAC 40 edged down 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. Most Asian stock markets rose. Japan’s Nikkei benchmark rose 1.0% after Japan reported better than expected economy data for April-16 and as yen continued to weaken. Hang Seng index gained 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite jumped 3.3%. GCC Gulf markets closed on a mixed note on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s index rebounded 1.4%, ending three sessions of declines. Yanbu National Petrochemicals jumped 6.5% after the company announced that its proposed interim dividend was increased to SAR 1.5 per share. SABIC climbed 2.5%, after the company said that it signed an agreement with Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Group to build a petrochemical complex in China. Dubai's index managed to recover earlier losses and edged up 0.2%. Air Arabia climbed 3.1% while Emaar Properties rose 0.2%. Abu Dhabi's benchmark slid 0.2% in thin trade. First Gulf Bank lost 1.3% while National Bank of Abu Dhabi gained 2.5%. Qatar QE index closed 0.1% lower on Tuesday showing bearish spell for the third straight session, mainly dragged by Insurance, Industrials and Realty stocks. Lower buying interests of local retail investors and institutions as well as higher net selling by Gulf individuals led the broader index down. Market capitalization was down 0.1% or QAR 54mn. Out of the 44 companies listed, 43 exchanged hands, of which 19 advanced, 20 declined and 4 stayed unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.7 1.5 4.3 115.0 10,400 DSM 20 13.1 1.5 4.3 107.8 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.9 1.5 3.8 745.4 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.3 1.4 5.7 54.9 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.1 1.2 4.2 99.8 Kuwait (KSE) 17.8 1.0 4.6 51.8 8,400 7/Mar Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.3 4.4 11.6 Bahrain (BAX) 9.3 0.4 4.9 2.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Ahli Bank Al Khaleej Takaful Qatar Gas Transport Gulf Int. Services Zad Holding Co Top Losers Mannai Corporation Qatar National Cement Qatar Insurance Co Qatari Investors Group United Development Close Price 45.5 25.0 23.4 37.7 86.0 3.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 2.0 8.1 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.4 3.7 (18.1) 0.1 (26.8) 1.4 2.7 12.6 13.5 (42.5) 0.5 21.2 2.3 1,191.0 13.0 (51.9) 1,657.6 13.4 (13.2) 0.2 11.7 83.0 84.1 72.0 47.5 18.0 (6.4) (2.9) (2.0) (1.2) (0.4) (7.2) (3.3) (2.7) (2.5) (2.3) (12.9) (9.3) 3.6 26.0 (13.2) (26.5) (25.3) (12.5) (11.7) (23.7) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 4.4 7.7 15.1 10.8 419.0 14.3 70.0 22.4 109.0 9.3 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 20.0 9,538.8 10.0 21/Mar 4/Apr 18/Apr Index Volume (mn) 2/May 16/May 0.0 30/May Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,593.2 6,430.5 2,976.8 4,011.6 2,337.0 1,041.4 2,474.7 1D Change (%) 0.6 0.2 (1.0) (1.6) (0.6) 0.2 1.3 Buy (%) 19.0 5.5 24.5 7.8 67.7 75.5 Sell (%) 17.6 3.9 21.5 10.1 68.4 78.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 1 , 2016 4bn, can be recovered in 10 years, according to former Deputy Transport Minister of Egypt. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  US consumer confidence dropped to 92.6 in May-16 from 94.7 in April16. The index had been expected to climb to 97.0, according to Conference Board. (Source: Nasdaq)  Personal spending in the US jumped by 1.0% in April-16 after remaining unchanged in March-16. Economists had expected spending to climb by 0.7%. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone consumer prices fell 0.1% YoY in May-16 after slipping 0.2% YoY in April-16, according the Eurostat statistics agency. (Source: Economic  Saudi Aramco has planned to expand the capacity of its east-west crude pipeline to 7mn barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2018 from the current 5mn bpd level, the company said. The length of the pipeline is 1,200 kilometers. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman will receive 5mn tourists a year by 2020, according to the Ministry of Tourism. The figures would mark a 120% rise in visitor numbers when compared with 2015. (Source: Arabian Business)  More than 1,000 Muscat Municipality workers went on strike over salary cuts in the public sector. Salaries for low-grade workers could be cut by a minimum of USD 330 (OMR 130). (Source: Arabian Business)  Total assets under management by investment firms in Bahrain have seen an increase of more than 13% reaching USD 19.8bn at of the end of Q1-16 from USD 17.5bn a year ago, according to Central Bank of Bahrain. (Source: Gulf News) Times)     The unemployment rate in the Eurozone was 10.2% in April-16, unchanged from March-16 and in line with economists' expectations. This was the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since August 2011. The number of person unemployed decreased by 63,000 from March16 to 16.4mn, according to Eurostat. (Source: Economic Calendar) Italy’s economy expanded 0.3% QoQ in Q1-16. Consumer spending increased 0.2% for the quarter with investment also rising 0.2%, whereas exports fell 1.5% and imports were down 0.9% for the quarter. GDP growth came in at 1% on an annual basis, according to Istat. (Source: Economic Times)  Conditions across Australia’s manufacturing sector improved at a slower pace in May-16. The headline PMI came in at 51.0 points in May-16, down 2.4 points from April-16. Readings on employment, exports and production slumped, falling to 45.6, 51.2 and 50.9 points, respectively, while new orders bucked the trend, rising 0.1 points to 52.2. (Source: Business Insider) Goods and services worth QAR 3.1bn were exported to Japan in April16, making it the top most destination of exports from Qatar in Asia. South Korea was second with exports worth QAR 2.08bn and India at the third position with QAR 1.6bn, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar retained a top place in the 2016 edition of the annual World Competitiveness Yearbook, which is issued by the International Institute for Management Development, ranked 13th out of 61 countries. (Source: The Peninsula)  Private sector group is coordinating with ministries concerned for the staging of international exhibitions for sports companies, to provide local businesses access to business opportunities related to Qatar's hosting of the FIFA World Cup in 2022, according to the Qatar Chamber. (Source: Gulf Times) India's economic growth accelerated to 7.9% YoY in Q1-16 from a revised 7.2% in the previous quarter, according to Central Statistics Office. (Source: Economic Times) QATAR NEWS GCC NEWS  Venture capital investment in the UAE amounted to USD 100mn (AED 367mn) in 2014. The UAE and Lebanon received a growing share of investments in the Mena, with 40% of investments going to UAE firms and 25% to Lebanese companies in 2015, according to the report ‘State of Digital Investments in Mena 2013-2015’. (Source: Arabian Business)  QSE have asked the listed companies to further strengthen disclosure and transparency. Such measures have great impact on the companies' success in gaining investors' confidence and ensuring a healthy and fair trading environment, the Director of QSE Market and Operations Control said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Abu Dhabi Financial Group (ADFG) and Bahrain's GFH Financial Group are jointly setting up an Islamic bank in Abu Dhabi's new financial free zone with initial capital of USD 100mn, ADFG's CEO said. ADFG and GFH have received preliminary approval to launch the bank at Abu Dhabi Global Market. (Source: Arabian Business)  Ahli Bank has appointed Hassam Ahmed al-Efrangi as Deputy CEO of retail banking division. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Today Business Excellence Awards has honored Dr. Mohammed Nasser al Qahtani, Deputy CEO of Al Meera Consumer Goods Company, as the Businessman of the Year. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Dubai apartment prices continued to fall during April-16, bring values down by 7.3% annually. ReidIn's Dubai Residential Property Sales Price Index decreased by 1.4 points last month to 257.6 from 259.0 in March-16. (Source: Arabian Business)   The number of tourism arrivals into the emirate of Ajman during Q116 rose by 20%, generating total tourism revenue of AED 108mn (USD 29.4mn). According to the Ajman Tourism Development Department, arrivals during Q1-16 totaled 142,404 and delivered 313,724 guest nights, reflecting 76% hotel occupancy rate, compared to 62.4% in Q115. (Source: Arabian Business) There was a substantial fall in both the number of transactions of properties’ and their values across Qatar in April-16, according to Ministry of Development Planning and statistics. Total transactions were 313 in April-16 compared to 601 in April-15 and 348 in March16. Transaction value fell 64.4% YoY to QAR 1.90bn in April-16. (Source:  Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) said that it had signed an agreement with Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Group to build a petrochemical complex in China. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia has reportedly hired a senior HSBC banker to start a debt management office that will be responsible for the kingdom’s first international bond sale. (Source: Arabian Business)  The cost of the King Salman Bridge, to be built over the Red Sea connecting Saudi Arabia and Egypt at an investment of USD 3bn to USD Gulf Times)  Qatar Rail announced that it has become a full member of the European Foundation for Quality Management, a globally recognized and not-for-profit membership foundation. (Source: The Peninsula)  The Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting has signed a MoU with Kaizen Management Consulting Co Ltd, an internationally renowned company in the area of consulting services and training, which would pave the way for cooperation and consultation in the industrial and economic fields. (Source: The Peninsula)  Grundfos, the world's leading pump manufacturer, has announced its expansion in Qatar. Mannai Trading Co WLL has been appointed its authorized distributor in Qatar, and will be responsible for sales of Grundfos products to water utility and infrastructure sectors. (Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 1 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1162 USD/QAR 3.6402 110.7300 EUR/QAR 4.0632 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4513 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 0.9939 GBP/QAR 5.2830 USD/CAD 1.3093 CHF/QAR 3.6625 AUD/USD 0.7234 CAD/QAR 2.7803 NZD/USD 0.6763 AUD/QAR 2.6333 USD/INR 66.7600 INR/QAR 0.0545 USD/TRY 2.9494 TRY/QAR 1.2342 USD/ZAR 15.7086 ZAR/QAR 0.2317 USD/BRL 3.6116 BRL/QAR 1.0079 FX Commentary The US dollar touched an eight-day high against the British pound and advanced marginally against the euro yesterday after two survey results suggested that those campaigning for Brexit were leading. A telephone poll conducted by ICM, a polling firm showed 45% of respondents favored Britain leaving the EU as against 42% who said they would vote to stay in the bloc. The actual voting on whether to remain in the 28-member EU, is scheduled for 23rd June. The GBP was down about 1.1% against the USD while EUR was trading about 0.13% lower, towards the end. The CAD also weakened against the greenback to touch a one-week low. However, the safe-haven JPY benefited yesterday and the USD was 0.5% down against the Japanese currency. The dollar index was on track to record its biggest gain in six months in May. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.46 0.67 1.32 (0.40) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.02) QAIBOR 1.38 1.47 1.59 1.77 2.00 SAIBOR NA NA 1.86 2.15 2.38 EIBOR 0.29 0.40 0.69 1.09 1.71 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.47% 5.0% 2.36% 2.60% 2.60% 1.26% 1.56% 1.82% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.06% 0.0% 2.64% 0.73% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 22.4 1.9 Turkey 273.3 14.6 UK 31.1 13.8 Brazil 362.7 (82.8) Germany 18.3 5.7 Egypt 488.3 22.5 France 36.9 9.7 Abu Dhabi 102.0 20.1 Italy 127.2 33.2 Bahrain 368.0 28.4 Greece 968.1 (0.6) Dubai 220.0 9.1 Russia 261.0 (9.0) Qatar 112.0 29.6 Japan 33.5 (17.7) Saudi Arabia 170.0 17.1 1.74% 2.0% 2.34% 2.06% 2.17% 1.03% 1.0% 0.89% 2.76% 1.71% 1.51% 1.34% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 2:50 Japan Capital Spending YoY 1Q 4.20% 8.50% 5:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg May F 47.7 47.6 9:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Mfg May 48.5 48 9:00 UK Nationwide House PX MoM May 0.30% 0.20% 9:00 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY May 4.80% 4.90% 10:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI May 53 53.9 10:50 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI May F 48.3 48.3 10:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI May F 52.4 52.4 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May F 51.5 51.5 11:30 UK Mortgage Approvals Apr 67.9k 71.4k 11:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA May 49.6 49.2 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications May-27th -- 2.30% 16:30 Canada RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI 16:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI 17:00 US ISM Manufacturing 17:00 US Construction Spending MoM 2:50 Japan Monetary Base YoY May -- 52.2 May F 50.5 50.5 May 50.3 50.8 Apr 0.60% 0.30% May -- 26.80% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 1 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 8.2 0.0 8.6 1.7 6.2 5.4 3.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.7 6.6 2.2 5.5 3.8 4.9 4.4 4.6 5.0 0.0 9.1 4.7 4.8 5.1 7.3 2.7 5.2 5.6 3.8 3.8 2.6 7.5 3.8 4.6 4.1 5.3 2.6 2.8 7.0 2.9 7.3 2.9 2.0 8.1 4.2 3.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.7 2.1 5.5 5.8 5.2 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.9 2.3 1.0 2.6 1.0 2.2 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.7 3.0 3.3 1.6 2.1 1.4 0.7 3.6 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.2 2.6 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.9 3.2 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.5 9.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.1 11.7 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.6 11.5 9.8 26.2 10.3 19.8 24.4 15.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.9 13.4 7.0 12.7 13.1 13.0 14.0 8.3 19.3 14.6 23.0 10.3 11.2 14.4 18.7 8.8 16.7 4.8 12.2 11.3 25.9 26.2 13.0 9.5 21.8 10.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.2 18.0 12.6 9.1 11.4 12.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 23.4 70.7 20.0 32.8 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.1 36.8 21.5 35.1 63.7 16.2 32.7 16.6 12.0 91.4 60.5 133.7 11.0 102.0 205.0 32.5 151.5 11.9 11.0 57.7 84.0 13.0 36.8 97.0 89.4 18.2 199.1 48.7 40.2 87.0 24.3 19.0 74.0 49.0 57.5 30.1 17.0 13.4 18.5 81.5 10.9 58.7 22.7 86.1 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4