GCC Daily Market Update - 27 November

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP November 27 , 2016 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Survey Actual 53.3 53.7 53.5 - 5.50% (9.20%) 2.40 2.20 UST 10yr Bond US MBA Mortgage Applications Nov-18 US Durable Goods Orders Oct P 1.70% 4.80% (0.30%) US Initial Jobless Claims Nov-19 250k 251k 235k US Markit US Manufacc. PMI Nov P 53.5 53.9 53.4 2.00 US New Home Sales Oct 590k 563k 593k 1.80 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov F 91.6 93.8 91.6 110.5 110.4 110.5 UK GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% UK GDP YoY 3Q P 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS             The OECD stated that the combined GDP of its 34-members grew 0.6% QoQ in Q3-16 from 0.3% QoQ growth in Q2-16. (Source: WSJ) The IEA Chief said that investment in new oil production will fall for a third year in 2017 as a global supply glut persists. (Source: Reuters) The minutes for FOMC’s policy meeting showed that most Fed officials saw a strong case to raise Federal interest rate as the labor market tightened. (Source: Bloomberg) US new home sales fell 1.9% MoM to 563,000 units in Oct-16, while existing home sales rose by 2% for the same period. (Source: Reuters) New orders for US durable goods rose by 4.8% MoM in Oct-16 due to rising demand for civilian aircraft. The non-defense capital goods (proxy for business spending plans) rose by 0.4% MoM. (Source: Reuters) UK budget deficit fell to GBP 4.8bn in Oct-16 from GBP 6.4bn in Oct15 as tax receipts and government spending rose 6.8% YoY and 2.6% YoY respectively. (Source: Bloomberg) UK finance minister stated in the Autumn statement that the government has ramped up its borrowing forecast to GBP 122.0bn over the next five years, due to slowdown post Brexit. (Source: Reuters) Bank of England proposed raising the guarantee on bank account deposits to GBP 85,000 from the current level of GBP 75,000, beginning 30th Jan-17 due to sharp fall in GBP. (Source: Reuters) ECB President said, the central bank needs to maintain its current level of monetary support to meet 2% inflation target. (Source: Reuters) ECB’s Financial Stability Report made the case for having statebacked 'bad banks', buy part of the EUR 1.0tn of soured loans to deal with high level of NPL of euro area banks. (Source: FTSE GM) Japan’s trade surplus expanded 4.7 times to JPY 496.2bn in Oct-16, supported by a 16.5% drop in imports, which fell due to continued drop in crude oil prices. (Source: Asia Nikkei) The deputy governor of BoJ said that central bank has sufficient experience and means to engineer a proper exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy. (Source: Reuters) 1.40 Source: Bloomberg    The General Secretary of the Gulf Aluminum Council expects investments of GCC countries in aluminum industry to rise from current USD 40bn to USD 50bn - 55bn in next 3 years. (Source: Mubasher) The non-oil trade value between Dubai and India stood at AED 48.0bn in H1-16, accounting for 7% of the UAE’s total non-oil foreign trade during the period, Dubai Customs said. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia has made payments totaling SAR 40.0bn it owed to private companies within the last two weeks, according to the Chairman of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs.      Oman's commercial bank credit grew 7.8% YoY in Sep-16 while deposits posted a weaker growth of 1.5% YoY. (Source: Zawya) Oman's budget deficit rose to OMR 4.42bn at the end of Sep-16 from OMR 4.37bn in Aug-16 due to improvement in oil prices and reduction in overall public spending. (Source: Zawya) Several local and foreign private sector companies in Oman signed land usufruct agreements to set up projects worth more than OMR 800mn in 2016 at Oman’s SEZ Authority in Duqm. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Central Bank of Bahrain announced its monthly issue of 91-day maturity Sukuk Al-Salam has been subscribed by 128%. (Source: BNA) Kuwait’s CPI rose 3.62% YoY in Oct-16 due to 10.4% YoY rise in transportation and residence group. (Source: Mubasher) Moody’s affirmed Kuwait Investment Co.’s rating of Ba2 and revised the outlook on the rating to stable from negative. (Source: CPI Financial) QATAR NEWS        Qatar’s PPI rose 3.7% QoQ to 45.1 points in Q2-16 as manufacturing sector grew 5.4% QoQ for the period. (Source: MDPS) The bilateral trade between Qatar and China reached QAR 21.5bn in 2015, the Chinese Ambassador to Qatar said. (Source: The Peninsula) Qatar and Indonesia signed a MoU on judicial co-operation in the fields of training and consultations on the best practices in litigation management. (Source: Gulf Times) Qatar and the UAE share the first place globally as the easiest countries to pay taxes, according to report by PwC and the World Bank Group. (Source: Gulf Times) Ecuador ambassador to Qatar said that the volume of trade between Qatar and Ecuador will grow between 60% and 70% in 2016 compared to 2015. (Source: Gulf Times) Qatar recorded the highest average wealth per adult (USD 161,000 in mid-2016) in the MENA region, according to a report by Credit Suisse Research Institute. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Ministry of Economy and Commerce said that the income derived from services to non-resident visitors in Qatar rose at an annual growth rate of 44.9% to QAR 54.6bn in the 5 years till 2015. (Source: Gulf Times)   (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi government will build 5,000 residential units worth SAR 25bn in the eastern port of Dammam as part of a mass housing program for the citizens. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia CPI rose 2.6% YoY in Oct-16 as transportation, and housing & utilities prices rose 7.3% YoY and 6.5% YoY respectively. (Source: Reuters)  GCC NEWS  21-Nov (0.40%) 14-Nov 393.1b (0.40%) 07-Nov 389.4b (0.40%) 31-Oct - Nov 24-Oct Nov-18 Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food 17-Oct Gold and Forex Reserve Japan 10-Oct Russia 1.60 03-Oct Nov 29-Aug Germany IFO Business Climate 2.32 26-Sep Prior 19-Sep Period Nov P 12-Sep Event Eurozone Eurozone Manuf PMI 05-Sep Region  Qatar Central Bank governor said that the banking sector remains healthy supported by adequate regulatory capital and low loan delinquency. (Source: Gulf Times) Total assets of banks operating in Qatar fell 0.2% YoY to QAR 1,192.3bn during Oct-16 while credit facilities rose 1% YoY to QAR 807.9bn during the same period. (Source: QCB) Fitch Ratings affirmed Commercial Bank's long-term Issuer Default Rating at 'A+' with a stable outlook. (Source: The Peninsula) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP November 27 , 2016 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,213.4 1.4 4.1 8.3 MSCI EM 855.8 1.3 (5.4) 7.8 19,152.1 1.5 5.6 9.9 S&P GCC 1,480.4 (0.5) (1.0) 2.3 Nasdaq 4,870.0 1.3 1.4 6.0 Dow Jones Islamic 2,890.6 0.9 0.0 3.2 FTSE 100 6,840.8 1.0 (1.6) 9.6 KSA (TASI) 6,796.8 2.5 13.0 (1.7) DAX 30 10,699.3 0.3 0.3 (0.4) UAE (DFM) 3,324.1 0.4 (0.3) 5.5 CAC 40 4,550.3 1.0 0.9 (1.9) UAE (ADX) 4,273.0 (0.4) (0.6) (0.8) BIST 100 74,363.5 (1.7) (5.3) 3.7 Qatar (DSM) 9,714.9 (0.6) (4.5) (6.9) Nikkei S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 18,381.2 2.3 5.5 (3.4) Kuwait (KSE) 5,517.4 0.1 2.2 (1.7) Sh. Comp 3,261.9 2.2 5.2 (7.8) Bahrain (BAX) 1,186.2 0.5 3.3 (2.4) Hang Seng 22,723.5 1.7 (0.9) 3.7 Oman (MSM) 5,521.3 0.5 0.7 2.1 Sensex 26,316.3 0.6 (5.8) 0.8 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,144.6 (0.1) 1.8 0.4 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 2.3 2.2 Nikkei Sh. Comp Hang Seng DJIA S&P 500 MSCI EM Nasdaq CAC 40 FTSE 100 Sensex DAX 30 Jordan (ASEGI) BIST 100 (1.7) 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 (0.1) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 9.9 9.6 8.3 7.8 6.0 DJIA FTSE 100 S&P 500 MSCI EM Nasdaq Hang Seng BIST 100 Sensex Jordan (ASEGI) DAX 30 CAC 40 Nikkei Sh. Comp(7.8) 3.7 3.7 0.8 0.4 (0.4) (1.9) (3.4) (10.0) 3.0 Source: Bloomberg (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) KSA (TASI) UAE (DFM) 2.5 Dow Jones Islamic 5.5 Dow Jones Islamic 0.9 3.2 Bahrain (BAX) 0.5 S&P GCC 2.3 Oman (MSM) 0.5 Oman (MSM) 2.1 0.4 UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) UAE (ADX) S&P GCC Qatar (DSM) (1.7) Kuwait (KSE) (0.4) (1.7) Bahrain (BAX) (0.5) (2.4) Qatar (DSM) (6.9) (0.6) (1.0) (0.8) KSA (TASI) 0.1 0.0 1.0 2.0 (10.0) 3.0 Source: Bloomberg (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 Global Global markets closed on a positive note for the week. US indices stood at an alltime high, supported by gains for the third consecutive week, post Trump’s election win. Macro data, which showed increased consumer confidence, high manufacturing PMI, strong gains in October durable goods orders and improved sales figures for existing homes, eased fears of impact of interest rate hike on US markets, which further supported the rally. Post-election laggards like Telecom services (+4.6%) and Utilities (+1.9%) had a better showing than the broader market during the past week. Industrials grew, after Deere surged on higher than anticipated results and an upbeat outlook. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.9%, supported by gains in Energy and Mining companies, which benefitted from higher oil and copper prices. Italian banks were pressured by concerns about the impact of the country’s constitutional referendum on December 4. Japan’s Nikkei continued to benefit from a strong yen. GCC Gulf shares closed on a mixed note. Saudi Arabia’s index outperformed its regional peers, closing 2.5% higher. Banks and Petrochemical stocks continued to gain during the week. While banks have been supported by the strong response to international debt issue, Petrochemicals firmed on prospects of a production cut by OPEC members. Despite weakness in real estate and construction shares Dubai’s stock market finished the week in positive territory following higher trade volumes in smaller companies. Qatar QE index underperformed its peer gulf indices as local retail investors turned net sellers on the bourse, while buying support from non-Qatari individuals reduced. Bullish bets by institutional investors, however capped losses. Sell-off was prominent in Telecom, Realty, Transport and Consumer Goods counters. In terms of volume, Telecom, Banks and Real estate constituted 82% of the total traded. Out of the 44 stocks listed, 43 exchanged hands, of which 24 declined, 15 advanced, four were unchanged. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX Indicator Price Last Close 9,714.9 MAVG 50 10,197.6 10,000 MAVG 100 10,451.3 9,000 MAVG 200 10,224.3 8,000 May-16 6 Month High 11,408.8 6 Month Low 9,532.6 RSI (14 Days) 25.8 12,000 11,000 9,714.9 Jul-16 Index Aug-16 50 SMA 100 SMA Oct-16 200 SMA Nov-16 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP November 27 , 2016 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 5.00 3.00 3.00 2.50 1.99 2.00 1.65 1.50 1.84 0.92 4.00 3.01 2.22 3.00 2.36 2.18 3.54 3.18 1.00 1.12 4.29 2.09 2.00 1.00 0.50 4.59 3.86 2.69 2.35 1.80 1.27 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current Last Year 7 Yrs 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Global US 5 Yrs Current Source: Bloomberg 5 Years CDS 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 29.0 0.0 2.7 9.8 Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGIB 2017 100.3 (6.7) 0.23 (0.1) (1.6) QGS 2018 100.5 51.1 1.47 (0.1) (0.8) QGIB 2019 110.9 43.5 1.70 0.0 (4.2) QGIB 2020 108.7 81.5 2.22 (0.3) (2.2) Qatari Diar 2020 98.7 93.0 2.62 0.0 NA UK 38.5 0.5 0.0 19.7 Germany 22.3 (0.9) 2.4 9.4 France 39.6 (0.4) 8.4 13.2 QGIB 2021 109.0 80.3 2.42 NA NA Italy 178.2 5.8 40.2 81.0 QGIB 2022 108.0 100.4 2.74 (0.4) (1.8) Greece 927.2 (6.1) (106.0) (154.9) QGS 2023 103.4 71.7 2.58 (0.6) (0.4) Russia 229.9 1.9 7.2 (77.4) QGIB 2026 97.7 139.5 3.50 (0.5) NA QGIB 2030 157.0 197.3 4.15 (1.2) (1.1) QGIB 2040 127.4 212.7 4.45 (2.3) 0.9 QGIB 2042 118.9 212.3 4.46 (2.0) 1.4 QGIB 2046 100.6 219.1 4.56 (1.4) NA Japan 33.0 0.0 0.3 (15.6) Turkey 299.0 8.7 54.6 25.5 Brazil 306.7 (2.6) 41.1 (188.3) Egypt 450.8 (22.1) (31.3) (27.9) GCC Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates Abu Dhabi 70.8 1.0 5.3 (21.8) Tenor Bahrain 332.1 (52.3) (40.0) (33.5) Dubai 158.3 (1.7) 6.7 (75.4) Qatar 91.0 0.0 4.5 (1.6) Saudi Arabia 125.0 (5.5) (14.4) (30.8) International Credit Spreads Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 0.937 0.021 0.324 6M LIBOR 1.289 0.009 0.443 12M LIBOR 1.643 0.023 0.465 2 years 1.331 0.031 0.152 5 years 2.281 0.468 0.536 10 years 2.184 (0.019) (0.004) 30 years 2.441 (0.029) (0.181) iTraxx Europe 81.1 (0.9) 7.8 81.1 iTraxx Europe Crossover 340.1 (8.3) 9.0 340.1 Source: Bloomberg CDX North America IG 73.3 (3.3) (5.5) 73.3 Commentary CDX North America HY 392.5 (22.8) (29.0) 392.5 iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 82.7 1.1 13.3 82.7 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 139.3 (3.9) 17.5 139.3 US treasury yields gained during most part of the week amidst slew of upbeat economic data, including strong home sales numbers pointing towards more rate hikes by Fed next year. A strong demand for 10-year note auction at higher rates lifted yields on the existing notes. Weekly jobless claims rose to 251,000 this week but remained below 300,000 threshold indicating healthy labor market, which supported risk-on mode and yields. Benchmark yields however retreated on Friday as data showed US trade deficit rose unexpectedly to a four-month high. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP November 27 , 2016 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 47.2 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 46.1 Oil prices rose during the week as statements from Iraq's PM showed the country's willingness to cut its crude oil output after weeks of resistance to the deal. Data showing fall in US crude stockpiles after three straight weeks of build-up, supported oil prices. Gains were however capped after Saudi Arabia's refusal to attend talks with non-OPEC producers next week. Natural gas price rose on better demand outlook due to cooler weather forecast. Copper prices closed the week higher on the back of bullish expectations for manufacturing spending. Gold prices fell as investors shied away from safe haven amidst risk on mode and imminent rate hike hopes in December. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 3.1 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,178.4 Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.5 Copper (USD/lb) 266.8 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) Natural Gas Copper Brent WTI Crude Silver Gold YTD Performance (%) Natural Gas Brent Copper WTI Crude Silver Gold 8.5 8.1 0.8 0.8 (0.9) (2.5) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 31.4 26.7 25.0 24.4 19.7 11.1 0.0 Source: Bloomberg 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.2507 USD/INR 67.9725 EUR/USD 1.0619 USD/CNY 6.9188 CAD/USD 0.7394 USD/TRY 3.4514 AUD/USD 0.7443 USD/EGP 17.5815 NZD/USD 0.7043 USD/ZAR 14.1100 113.2200 USD/RUB 64.8285 USD/JPY Commentary USD ended the week with mix results. Against European currencies it ended lower but continued to rally versus the yen. The Dollar index ended the week up 0.25% as positive economic data in the US and FOMC minute hinting towards imminent rate hike in December supported USD. JPY fell 2.1% over the week as a fall in consumer prices indicated that the BoJ has failed to push inflation up despite radical easing measures. CAD weakened reflecting weak GDP data and the US President-elect Trump’s views on TPP and NAFTA. GBP strengthened driven by upbeat economic data and British PM's assurance of a transitional deal for businesses post-Brexit. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) ZAR AUD GBP NZD EUR RUB CAD CNY INR JPY TRY EGP (10.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) RUB ZAR JPY NZD CAD AUD EUR INR CNY GBP TRY EGP(55.8) 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.5) (2.1) (2.5) (8.1) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 (60.0) 12.4 9.7 6.2 3.1 2.3 2.2 (2.5) (3.4) (6.0) (15.3) (15.4) (50.0) (40.0) (30.0) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this ma terials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4