GCC Daily Market Update - 31 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 31 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) NA NA NA NA 10,333.2 4,529.4 78,535.2 17,068.0 20,629.4 2,822.5 26,725.6 NA NA NA NA 46.9 14.7 506.3 233.2 52.6 1.4 72.0 NA NA NA NA 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 NA NA NA NA 2.9 2.3 (8.0) 2.4 (2.1) (3.9) 4.4 NA NA NA NA (3.8) (2.3) 9.5 (10.3) (5.9) (20.3) 2.3 9,552.0 6,359.9 4,259.5 3,306.4 5,378.9 5,838.6 1,094.4 1,438.0 2,854.2 (123.6) (68.5) (37.7) (54.0) (13.9) (51.9) 2.4 (0.1) 1.0 (1.3) (1.1) (0.9) (1.6) (0.3) (0.9) 0.2 (0.0) 0.0 (6.2) (6.6) (6.3) (5.3) (0.2) (1.8) (1.5) (5.3) 0.6 (8.4) (8.0) (1.1) 4.9 (4.2) 8.0 (10.0) (1.9) 2.1 49.8 49.3 2.2 1,213.8 211.4 0.4 (0.2) 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.9 (0.3) 10.5 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.9 (0.3) (5.9) (7.7) 33.4 33.7 (7.1) 14.5 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg; Note: WTI, Natural Gas and Copper prices are as on 27th May 2016. Global Global markets closed marginally higher on Monday. US markets were closed on account of the Memorial Day holiday, while London market was closed for a Spring Bank Holiday. European stock markets ended on a higher note. DAX 30 rose 0.5% with German import prices falling faster than expected in April-16. CAC 40 edged up 0.3%, mainly supported by the data showing that France economy grew by 0.6% in the Q1-16, slightly faster than the 0.5% forecast. Asian markets closed higher. Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.4% higher, as the yen weakened against the dollar and on reports that a planned hike in the country's consumption tax would be delayed. Shanghai composite closed 0.1% up, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index edged up 0.3%. GCC Gulf markets closed in red on Monday after a dip in oil prices. Saudi Arabia's index lost 1.1%. Petrochemical shares were the main drag, with SABIC dropping 1.8% tracking a fall in oil prices. Banking shares failed to hold onto earlier gains, with the sub-index edging down 0.4%. Dubai's index fell 1.6%, ending five session of gains as investors booked profits. Emaar Properties and Dubai Islamic Bank lost 2.2% and 4.1%, respectively. Abu Dhabi's benchmark erased earlier gains and dropped 0.9% in the heaviest volumes in seven weeks. Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank and First Gulf Bank fell 1.1% and 2.0%, respectively. Qatar QE index closed 1.3% lower on Monday, reflecting the weak oil prices in the world market. Telecom, Banking and Transport counters witnessed board selling. Foreign institutions were seen squaring off their position in the market. Market capitalization eroded 1.2% or more than QAR 6bn. All the sectors closed in red, with major losers being Telecom (-2.4%), Banks & Financial Services (-1.6%), Transport (-1.3%) and Industrials (-1.0%). Out of the 44 companies listed, 43 exchanged hands, of which 2 advanced, 40 declined and 1 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.7 1.5 4.3 35.8 10,400 DSM 20 13.1 1.5 4.3 32.1 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.7 1.5 3.9 869.9 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.3 1.4 5.7 122.4 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.1 1.2 4.2 41.9 Kuwait (KSE) 17.7 1.0 4.4 31.1 Oman (MSM) 11.1 1.3 4.4 9.6 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.1 0.4 5.0 0.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Gen Insurance Salam Int. Investme Widam Food Co Qatar Int. Islamic Qatar National Cement Top Losers Gulf Int. Services Al Khaleej Takaful Dlala Holding Qatar Ind. Manufactur Zad Holding Co Close Price 49.0 11.0 57.7 60.5 87.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 (0.1) (0.3) 2.1 0.1 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) 5.5 (6.7) 9.3 (5.9) (6.2) (4.6) (20.4) (5.3) (23.7) (20.9) 5.1 115.1 10.6 1.8 0.6 4.8 10.9 13.3 11.5 11.2 36.8 24.3 21.5 40.2 84.0 (1.3) (0.9) (0.7) (1.2) (2.5) (3.4) (3.4) (3.0) (2.9) (2.9) (28.5) (20.5) 16.2 0.9 (0.9) (52.7) (44.3) (18.4) (13.5) (15.2) 552.0 0.0 34.9 0.4 0.0 13.0 20.6 NA 10.3 11.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,900 8,400 3/Mar 20.0 9,552.0 10.0 0.0 17/Mar 31/Mar 14/Apr Index Volume (mn) 28/Apr 12/May 26/May Index Value Closing Level 2,578.4 6,418.2 3,007.7 4,076.2 2,349.9 1,039.1 2,444.1 1D Change (%) (1.6) (0.8) (1.0) (0.3) (0.8) (2.4) (1.3) Buy (%) 43.3 29.3 72.6 13.5 13.9 27.4 Sell (%) 28.8 19.1 47.9 18.7 33.4 52.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 31 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS    Eurozone economic confidence rose to a four-month high in May-16 to 104.7 from a revised score of 104.0 in April-16. The industrial sentiment indicator held steady at -3.6 in May-16, while the consumer confidence index came in at -7.0. (Source: London South East)  Inflation in Germany was back in positive territory in May-16. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in May-16 after falling by 0.1% in April16, mainly due to rising prices for rents and services outweighed falling energy prices, according to the federal statistics Destatis. (Source: Coca-Cola has planned to expand its portfolio in Bahrain by producing juices and energy drinks. The company has planned to introduce more products from its bottling plant in Salmabad, which presently produces close to 25,000 bottles per hour. (Source: Gulf News)  Consumer Price Index in Kuwait increased by 2.9% in April-16 compared to April-15. Inflation in housing services surged by 6.25% YoY, while food and beverages rose by 2.62% YoY in April-16 (Source: Business) Business Times)   French consumer spending edged down 0.1% MoM in April-16, reversing a 1.1% MoM rise in the March-16, as households spent less on food, cars and refined oil products. Consumer spending was 2.5% YoY higher in April-16. (Source: Market Watch) Japan's industrial production rose 0.3% MoM in April-16, much slower than the 3.8% gain in March-16, according to Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. (Source: CNBC) KUNA)  Kuwait has earmarked KWD 34.5bn (USD 115bn) to spend on oil projects over the next five years, despite the slump in oil prices. Over two-thirds of the spending, or KWD 23bn, has been allocated for exploration and production. (Source: Arab news)  Kuwait has awarded Turkey's Limak Group and Kharafi National a contract to build a new airport terminal at a cost of KWD 1.31bn (USD 4.34bn). The project will be completed over six years and will raise the capacity of the airport to 25mn passengers from the current 5mn passengers. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait National Petroleum Company is in final stages of talks with international institutions for USD 6.4bn in the second tranche of loans to finance its multi-billion dollar Clean Fuels project. (Source: Arabian GCC NEWS    Remittances from UAE to Egypt stood at USD 1.83bn from a total of an estimated USD 19.7bn from around the world in 2015, according to remittance data of World Bank. (Source: Trade Arabia) From 1st June, 2016, Hotels in Abu Dhabi will pay municipal fees of 4% of every guest’s bill plus a charge of AED 15 per night per room, according to the Department of Municipal Affairs & Transport along with the Tourism & Culture Authority. (Source: Arabian Business) Abu Dhabi's property market is over-supplied and the government may take steps to address the imbalance, the Chairman of Abu Dhabi's Economic Department said. Residential prices were flat last year, after rising about 25% a year in 2013 and 2014. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai's DP World announced that it has raised USD 1.2bn in a new seven-year sukuk set to be listed on NASDAQ Dubai. The issue received strong investor interest and was oversubscribed, receiving more than USD 2bn in bids. (Source: Arabian Business)  Foreign assets at Saudi Arabia's Central Bank shrank USD 6bn or by 1.1% MoM in April-16 to SAR 2.15tn (USD 572bn). Assets fell 15.7% YoY to their lowest level since April-12. Deposits with banks abroad fell 2.2% MoM to USD 129bn in April-16. (Source: Reuters)  The rising demand for electricity will require Oman's power generation capacity to grow at an annual rate of 9.6% over the next five years. The country will need to add 4.8GW capacity by 2020, involving an investment of USD 8bn, according to Arab Petroleum Investment Corporation. (Source: Muscat Daily)  Islamic insurance, also known as Takaful insurance, achieved a robust growth of 64% in gross direct premium at OMR 39mn last year, which constitutes around 9% of insurance industry’s OMR 442mn direct premium income and 5% of total paid claims, according to Capital Market Authority (CMA)’s insurance review. (Source: Times Of Oman)   Aluminium Bahrain said that the drop in oil prices has cut the projected capital cost of its Line 6 expansion by USD 500mn to a total of USD 3bn. The Line 6 project is expected to boost the company’s annual output by 540,000 tonnes to 1.5mn tonnes a year. (Source: Arabian Oman’s MB Holding Co has mandated National Bank of Oman and Standard Chartered to arrange the five-year deal for multi-currency bond to raise up to USD 150mn. The sukuk will go via private placement with a fixed pricing of 8.5% and the offer is expected to close in June-16. (Source: Reuters) Four initial tenders were floated by Oman Power and Water Procurement Company to develop two independent water projects – one each in Duqm and Khasab. The proposed Duqm independent project and will have a water desalination capacity of 60,000 cubic metres per day (cmpd), while the Khasab desalination project will provide 16-20,000 cmpd of water generation capacity. These projects are expected to be completed by late 2019. (Source: Times Of Oman) Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s GDP is projected to achieve a stable growth of about 4.3% in 2016, according to Minister of Economy and Commerce. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s 2016 current account deficit, the first in almost 20 years, will be short-lived and poses little risks to the country's external balance and currency peg, as it has enough financial buffers to meet its immediate needs, according BMI. (Source: Arabian Business)  Qatar Development Fund signed a USD 5mn agreement with Turkey’s Humanitarian Pooled Fund to support the Syrian people through humanitarian and development assistance programs. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s banking sector liquidity remains tight as rapid credit growth outstrips deposit growth, due to falling public sector deposits, according to the Samba Financial Group. The moves from the Central Bank to cut the repo rate or reduce reserve requirements are possible, whilst there is anecdotal evidence of banks raising capital via private placements, the group quoted. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar First Bank announced the completion of 7-12 Leinster Square, a residential real estate development in Leinster Square in London. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar First Bank, a sharia-compliant bank’s CEO Emad Mansour has resigned and will be replaced by Ahmad Meshari. (Source: Arabian Business)  United Development Company has signed a MoU for the sale of AQ02 office tower, one of two iconic commercial towers situated at the entrance of The Pearl-Qatar within the Abraj Quartier precinct. (Source: Gulf News)  Qatar Shell along with Qatar Development Bank, is offering QAR 70mn contracts in 2016 to local SMEs, against QAR 35mn offered in the preceding three years, implying a total of QAR 105mn worth projects for the local SMEs as Qatar embarks on developing SMEs as part of its diversification strategy. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Holding has lifted its stake in Dubai Parks and Resorts to 11% after AED 1.68bn capital increase to fund the construction of a Six Flags amusement park set to open in the last quarter of 2019. (Source: The National) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 31 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1168 USD/QAR 3.6402 111.1200 EUR/QAR 4.0654 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4670 JPY/QAR 0.0328 USD/CHF 0.9922 GBP/QAR 5.3402 USD/CAD 1.3049 CHF/QAR 3.6688 AUD/USD 0.7183 CAD/QAR 2.7896 NZD/USD 0.6694 AUD/QAR 2.6148 USD/INR 66.6687 INR/QAR 0.0546 USD/TRY 2.9544 TRY/QAR 1.2321 USD/ZAR 15.8133 ZAR/QAR 0.2302 USD/BRL 3.5698 BRL/QAR 1.0197 FX Commentary USD surged to a two-month high against a basket of major currencies and a one-month high against the Japanese yen yesterday, after the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s comments strengthened the expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates in the near future. The USD’s surge against the JPY was also supported by the political developments in Japan. The country’s Prime Minister said he would delay a sales tax increase scheduled for next April by two and a half years, according to a senior official of the ruling party. Japan is also expected to put up a supplementary budget to stimulate the stagnating economy and this is expected to be followed by further monetary easing by BoJ. These factors hurt the JPY’s prospects yesterday. However, the EUR slightly moved up following the release of a better than expected German inflation data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.46 0.67 1.32 (0.40) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.02) QAIBOR 1.38 1.46 1.58 1.76 2.00 SAIBOR NA NA 1.86 2.15 2.37 EIBOR 0.28 0.39 0.68 1.09 1.70 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.47% 5.0% 2.36% 2.59% 2.59% 1.30% 1.58% 1.83% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.06% 0.0% 2.64% 0.73% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 22.2 1.9 Turkey 274.5 13.5 UK 31.3 14.4 Brazil 350.9 (93.3) Germany 18.7 5.9 Egypt 488.4 23.1 France 40.5 13.1 Abu Dhabi 99.7 17.9 Italy 126.4 32.1 Bahrain 371.3 28.2 Greece 955.4 (38.8) Dubai 215.9 3.3 Russia 262.2 (9.7) Qatar 109.6 27.3 Japan 34.0 (17.5) Saudi Arabia 164.5 11.9 1.99% 1.69% 2.0% 2.26% 2.17% 1.07% 1.0% 0.89% 2.69% 1.72% 1.53% 1.38% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 2:30 Japan Jobless Rate 2:30 Japan Job-To-Applicant Ratio 2:50 Japan Industrial Production MoM 9:45 France CPI YoY 10:55 Germany Unemployment Change (000's) 11:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply YoY 12:00 Italy 12:00 13:00 Period Survey Prior Apr 3.20% 3.20% Apr 1.34 1.3 Apr P 0.30% 3.80% May P (0.10%) (0.20%) May (5k) (16k) Apr 5.00% 5.00% CPI EU Harmonized MoM May P 0.30% 0.20% Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY May P (0.30%) (0.40%) Italy GDP WDA QoQ 1Q F 0.30% 0.30% 13:00 Italy GDP WDA YoY 1Q F 1.00% 1.00% 15:30 US Personal Income Apr 0.40% 0.40% 15:30 Canada GDP MoM Mar (0.10%) (0.10%) 15:30 US Personal Spending Apr 0.70% 0.10% 15:30 Canada Quarterly GDP Annualized 1Q 2.80% 0.80% 17:00 US Consumer Confidence Index May 96.3 94.2 2:50 Japan Capital Spending YoY 1Q 2.40% 8.50% 5:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg May F -- 47.6 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 31 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.1 0.0 8.4 1.6 6.1 5.3 3.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.5 6.5 2.1 5.4 3.7 4.8 4.3 4.6 4.9 0.0 9.0 4.6 4.7 5.0 7.2 2.6 5.1 5.6 3.8 3.7 2.5 7.5 3.8 4.5 4.1 5.2 2.6 2.8 6.9 2.9 7.1 2.9 2.0 8.1 4.2 3.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.6 2.0 5.4 5.8 5.1 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.9 2.3 1.1 2.7 1.0 2.2 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.7 3.0 3.3 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.3 2.7 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.9 3.2 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 2.6 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.6 9.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.3 11.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.9 11.7 10.0 26.6 10.5 20.2 24.6 15.2 11.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 13.6 7.1 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.2 8.3 19.6 15.0 23.5 10.3 11.2 14.6 19.1 8.9 16.9 4.7 12.4 11.3 26.7 26.2 13.3 9.5 22.0 11.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.8 18.4 12.8 9.2 11.6 12.7 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 23.4 70.7 20.0 32.8 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.3 37.1 21.7 35.9 66.0 16.5 33.1 16.9 12.1 94.7 61.5 136.0 11.2 104.0 207.5 32.5 154.0 12.0 11.1 58.8 86.0 13.2 38.8 98.0 90.0 18.5 204.8 49.8 40.0 87.2 24.7 19.3 75.0 48.0 58.4 31.1 17.0 13.6 18.5 85.4 11.2 60.0 23.1 86.8 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4