GCC Daily Market Update - 24 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 24 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,204.7 19,083.2 4,853.9 6,817.7 10,662.4 4,529.2 75,036.9 18,162.9 22,676.7 3,241.1 26,051.8 1.8 59.3 (20.0) (2.0) (51.4) (19.1) (775.1) NA (1.4) (7.2) 91.0 0.1 0.3 (0.4) (0.0) (0.5) (0.4) (1.0) NA (0.0) (0.2) 0.4 3.7 5.2 1.1 (2.0) (0.0) 0.4 (4.5) 4.2 (1.1) 4.5 (6.7) 7.9 9.5 5.7 9.2 (0.7) (2.3) 4.6 (4.6) 3.5 (8.4) (0.3) 9,738.8 6,796.1 4,259.6 3,350.0 5,536.4 5,521.3 1,187.6 1,479.0 2,873.1 (2.0) 194.5 40.9 59.2 21.0 NA 3.2 (2.0) (7.8) (0.0) 3.0 1.0 1.8 0.4 NA 0.3 (0.1) (0.3) (4.3) 13.0 (0.9) 0.5 2.5 0.7 3.4 (1.1) (0.6) (6.6) (1.7) (1.1) 6.3 (1.4) 2.1 (2.3) 2.6 2.6 49.0 48.0 3.0 1,189.3 260.8 (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 (21.9) 6.3 (0.4) (0.2) 1.5 (1.8) 2.5 1.3 2.3 (0.4) (6.8) 21.5 31.2 29.5 28.9 12.0 25.4 Global Most major global markets edged lower on Wednesday. US stocks, however continued their upward trajectory, with DJIA posting another gains on back of Industrial stocks, which further benefitted from strong results posted by farm equipment maker Deere. Nasdaq closed in red as Technology shares came under pressure, following weak results posted by HP. European stocks closed in red, with the broad based Stoxx 600 down 0.07%, paring gains it made earlier on back of strong Eurozone PMI data. Banking stocks particularly weighed on the index, after the European Commission announced a plan to strengthen capital requirement rules. UK’s benchmark closed 0.03% lower after the budget speech, which spoke of deteriorating growth expectations. China’s benchmark closed marginally lower, with losses limited by gains in Property and Bank shares. GCC GCC markets closed higher, with Saudi Arabia's benchmark leading it peer indices. The kingdom stocks rose 3.0% supported by rise in several blue chip stocks. Banking shares, which succumbed to profit taking in recent days, firmed, with all 12 lenders in green. Index heavyweight SABIC also added 4.1%, despite a drop in crude prices. DFM added 1.8% supported by increased buying interest from local investors, particularly in small and midsized shares. Abu Dhabi’s index rose 1.0%, with lenders that are set to be merged at the start of 2017, gained. Qatar QE index closed marginally lower for the day as Gulf individual investors turned net sellers on the bourse, while domestic and Gulf institutions’ buying support weakened. Selling pressure was more evident in Telecom (0.52%) and Banking and Financial services (0.25%). Trade volume fell 30% to 4.67mn shares, with Telecom, Banking and Realty sectors accounting for about 79% of the total traded. Out of the 44 stocks listed, 37 exchanged hands, of which 11 advanced, 20 declined and 6 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.3 1.5 4.2 44.3 DSM 20 14.1 1.5 4.2 34.9 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.1 1.6 3.5 2,558.8 UAE (ADX) 11.0 1.3 5.7 70.7 UAE (DFM) 11.0 1.2 4.1 247.2 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.0 4.4 37.6 Oman (MSM) 10.4 1.1 5.2 6.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.7 0.4 4.7 0.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Medicare Group Islamic Holding Group United Developm. Co. Aamal Co Salam Intl. Investm. Top Losers Widam Food Co Doha Insurance Co Barwa Real Estate Co Al Meera Cons Goods Qatar & Oman Investm Close Price 63.0 55.5 18.7 13.3 11.0 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.5 1.4 (47.2) (29.5) (9.7) (5.3) (7.4) (54.8) (31.2) (13.4) 4.9 (10.2) 256.4 28.1 17.1 24.9 61.2 20.4 198.2 12.1 13.1 10.7 59.5 18.0 29.4 157.0 9.5 (2.0) (0.5) (0.5) (2.0) (0.1) (3.3) (2.6) (1.5) (1.3) (1.0) 12.7 (14.2) (26.6) (28.6) (22.8) 24.0 (21.4) (30.0) (29.3) (24.0) 34.9 0.1 361.9 30.6 30.2 12.6 9.1 11.6 19.8 26.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 28/Aug 30.0 20.0 9,738.8 10.0 0.0 11/Sep 25/Sep 9/Oct Index Volume (mn) 23/Oct 6/Nov 20/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,734.6 5,597.1 3,047.5 4,276.4 2,129.3 1,083.7 2,392.2 1D Change (%) (0.3) 0.0 0.3 0.2 (0.1) (0.5) 0.1 Buy (%) 32.2 28.0 60.2 10.4 29.4 39.8 Sell (%) 38.1 22.1 60.2 9.0 30.8 39.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 24 , 2016 according to Oman Central Bank data. Bad loans stood at OMR 19.59mn as of Septembr-16 compared to OMR 18.17mn for the same period in 2015. (Source: Zawya) GLOBAL NEWS  The minutes for FOMC’s policy meeting ending 2nd November-16 showed that most Fed officials saw a strong case to raise the target range for the federal funds rate as the labor market tightened. (Source:  Bloomberg)       The Director General of International Energy Agency said that investment in new oil production is likely to fall for a third year in 2017 as a global supply glut persists. (Source: Reuters) US new home sales fell 1.9% MoM to 563,000 units in October-16 from 574,000 units in September-16 as sales fell in Northeast, Midwest and Southern region during the period. The fall was limited as sales rose 8.8% MoM in the western region. (Source: Reuters) New orders for US durable goods rose by 4.8% MoM in October-16 compared to 0.4% MoM rise in September-16 due to rising demand for civilian aircraft. The non-defense capital goods which is a proxy for business spending plans rose by 0.4% MoM after declining 1.4% MoM in the previous month. (Source: Reuters) US Treasury reassured Brazilian banks that they can finance its trade with Iran without fearing any sanctions, thus paving way for potential exports of jet planes, buses and equipment, Brazilian DiplomatRodrigo Azeredo said. (Source: Reuters) UK finance minister stated in the Autumn statement that the British government has ramped up its borrowing forecast to GBP 122.0bn over the next five years, as economy slows in the wake of Brexit vote. The net public sector debt is also forecasted to reach 90.2% of GDP in 2017-18. (Source: Reuters) The deputy governor of Bank of Japan said that central bank has sufficient experience and means to engineer a proper exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy. He further added that the plan is contingent on the prevailing economic and market condition at that time. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  The occupancy rates at hotels in Dubai fell 2.0% YoY to 78% in October16 while the revenue per available room, an indicator of hotel profitability was also down 11.6% YoY to AED 596.2 for the period, according to data released by STR. (Source: Zawya)  Drake & Scull International will trim its civil contracting and Indian businesses as part of a restructuring plan aimed at returning to profitability as it contends with cash flow issues caused by contracts in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Gulf Base)     A property developer, Supercasa, signed a lead consultancy services agreement with Archea Architecture and Design Consultants for its new five-star hotel and resort project at Al Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah. The design phase will end by middle of 2017 and the construction will be completed in 2019. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai-based Union Insurance Company has partnered with Migration Cover to launch Expat Protect, the first comprehensive insurance product for expatriates in the UAE. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi-based Acwa Power signed financial agreements with two European banks namely European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Netherlands Development Finance Company for the development of a 60.3MW solar photovoltaic independent power plant in Mafraq, Jordan. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dar Al-Arkan Real-Estate Development Company (DAAR) announced the completion of repayment of its SAR 1.125bn (USD 300.0mn) Sukuk (2016 series 2 mtn), which was due on 25th November-16. (Source: Tadawul)  Oman's commercial banks’ credit grew by 7.8% YoY as of September16 while deposits posted a weaker growth of 1.5% YoY for the period Oman's budget deficit rose to OMR 4.42bn at the end of September16 from OMR 4.37bn in August-16. The rise in September’s deficit numbers was the lowest for the year mainly due to an improvement in oil prices and a further reduction in overall public spending. (Source: Zawya)  Oman Airports Management Company signed a MoU with DHL Express to co-operate in regards to growing capabilities within the logistics sector across Oman’s airports. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain’s Investcorp said in a statement that US-based real estate division bought a portfolio of properties in the Boston and Denver metropolitan areas for about USD 250.0mn. The portfolio includes five investments consisting of 20 buildings and 1.8mn sq. ft. of office, industrial, flexible and laboratory space. (Source: Reuters)  National Bank of Bahrain has appointed Jean-Christophe Durand as its new chief executive with effective 1st Dec-16. Mr Durand is replacing Abdul Razak al-Qassim. (Source: Zawya)  Kuwait’s Consumer Price Index increased by 3.62% YoY in October-16. The transportation and residence group recorded the highest rise in price of 10.4% YoY and 7.4% YoY respectively in October-16. Food and beverage increased by 0.72% YoY. (Source: Mubasher)  Moody’s affirmed Kuwait Investment Company’s rating of Ba2 and revised the outlook on the rating to stable from negative. The agency cited the company’s access to low cost deposits and a low level of net debt to equity as reasons, which counterbalances risk like high exposure to market risk. (Source: CPI Financial)  Kuwait Finance House (KFH) said it is in the final steps of signing a contract for selling its subsidiary KFH Capital Investment Co, to a group of investors. (Source: Mubasher) QATAR NEWS  Qatar Central Bank said that the banking sector remains healthy supported by adequate regulatory capital and low loan delinquency. The central bank has initiated the next strategic plan for 2017-22 to further strengthen the prudential norms and financial market infrastructure, according to Governor of QCB. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and the UAE share the first place globally, as the easiest countries to pay taxes, according to report by PwC and The World Bank Group. (Source: Gulf Times)  The volume of trade between Qatar and Ecuador is forecasted to grow between 60% - 70% in 2016, compared to that in 2015.The total trade volume between the two countries reached USD 8.3mn in 2015, according to Ecuador ambassador. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is the fastest growing fibre nation globally. The growth is driven by Ooredoo’s nationwide programme, according to a global consulting group study, which shows that 71% of households in Qatar are now connected by fibre compared with 18% in 2012. (Source: Gulf Times)  Nakilat has assumed full ship management and operations of Q-Max LNG carrier ‘Umm Slal’ from Shell Trading and Shipping Company as part of the planned and phased transition announced in Oct-16.(Source: Gulf Times)  Islamic Holding Group’s shareholders approved the amendment to the company’s articles of association by adding a new article that allows Non-Qatari Investors to own maximum 49% of the company’s shares. (Source: Mubasher)  RasGas has delivered its first liquefied natural gas cargo to the Dunkerque LNG Regasification Terminal in France. The cargo aboard RasGas’ Maran Gas Asclepius was delivered to the EDF Group, according to RasGas CEO. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 24 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0583 USD/QAR 3.6410 112.5200 EUR/QAR 3.8533 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2473 JPY/QAR 0.0324 USD/CHF 1.0167 GBP/QAR 4.5414 USD/CAD 1.3488 CHF/QAR 3.5812 AUD/USD 0.7385 CAD/QAR 2.6994 NZD/USD 0.7007 AUD/QAR 2.6889 USD/INR 68.0650 INR/QAR 0.0535 USD/TRY 3.3953 TRY/QAR 1.0724 USD/ZAR 14.1502 ZAR/QAR 0.2573 USD/BRL 3.3903 BRL/QAR 1.0739 FX Commentary USD surged on Wednesday, bolstered by upbeat US economic reports, which reinforced prospects of an imminent increase in rate hike. Traders now see nearly 100% chance of a rate hike this Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch program. Hawkish Fed minutes, along with improvement in non-defense capital goods orders (proxy for business spending plans) and consumer sentiments made a strong case for more rate hike to come in the upcoming year, further supporting the greenback. An increase in jobless claims did little to impact the greenback. CAD weakened as a strong USD and weak oil prices exerted pressure on the currency. GBP closed lower after the UK Chancellor cut growth forecasts for UK, in his Autumn statement. EUR fell despite data showing expansion in bloc's private sector. JPY fell on back of weak PMI numbers. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.58 0.92 1.63 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.08) QAIBOR 1.09 1.21 1.40 1.73 2.16 SAIBOR NA 1.48 1.89 2.10 2.50 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year EIBOR 0.44 0.55 0.74 1.38 2.02 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.00 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.50% 4.0% 2.35% 2.0% 0.0% 2.80% 2.80% 1.99% 2.31% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 3.03% 0.86% 1.57% 0.64% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.0 8.1 Turkey 296.7 19.7 UK 37.5 3.8 Brazil 306.1 (49.7) Germany 22.6 3.2 Egypt 449.9 (21.9) France 38.4 0.1 Abu Dhabi 70.0 (23.0) Italy 174.8 45.9 Bahrain 330.5 (40.5) Greece 924.9 (60.6) Dubai 160.0 (60.0) Russia 228.2 (32.3) Qatar 90.0 (15.0) Japan 32.9 (1.6) Saudi Arabia 127.0 (31.0) 2.0% 2.54% 1.34% 1.84% 1.59% 2.17% 1.98% 1.82% 1.0% 2.10% 2.44% 0.99% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 08:00 Japan Leading Index CI Period Survey Prior Sep F - 100.5 10:00 Germany 10:00 Germany GDP SA QoQ 3Q F 0.20% 0.20% GDP WDA YoY 3Q F 1.70% 1.70% 10:00 10:45 Germany GDP NSA YoY 3Q F 1.50% 1.50% France Manufacturing Confidence Nov 102 102 12:00 Germany IFO Business Climate Nov 110.5 110.5 12:00 Germany IFO Current Assessment Nov 115 115 12:00 Germany IFO Expectations Nov 106 106.1 12:30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Oct 38975 38252 15:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve 02:30 Japan 02:30 02:30 Dec 9.7 9.7 Nov-18th - 393.1b Natl CPI YoY Oct 0.00% (0.50%) Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Oct (0.40%) (0.50%) Japan Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY Oct 0.10% 0.00% 02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI YoY Nov 0.20% 0.10% 02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Nov (0.40%) (0.40%) 02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY Nov 0.00% 0.10% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 24 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 8.6 0.0 9.0 2.0 5.8 5.2 3.6 0.0 4.2 6.6 1.9 6.1 3.5 6.5 8.2 5.6 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.3 4.4 5.2 5.9 7.2 3.4 4.8 4.6 3.6 2.3 6.9 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.4 2.4 3.0 8.3 2.8 7.4 3.3 2.3 8.0 4.6 3.3 2.3 3.1 2.3 5.5 5.9 5.3 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.9 2.2 1.0 2.0 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 2.4 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.8 3.8 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.9 2.5 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 18.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.7 11.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.0 11.6 10.5 27.1 11.0 7.0 19.8 19.9 13.5 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 12.9 5.7 11.0 13.2 32.4 19.0 18.7 14.3 23.2 10.4 10.9 17.3 16.7 9.4 18.4 4.1 11.9 11.6 11.8 23.0 14.0 12.1 17.7 13.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.3 15.6 12.9 10.9 12.3 13.3 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 34.8 20.5 33.3 54.0 17.3 33.5 14.1 10.0 100.3 61.0 153.1 9.9 76.5 61.1 161.0 28.1 141.2 9.7 10.8 60.8 76.8 13.3 29.4 105.0 15.2 207.5 53.5 43.2 84.0 19.5 18.5 81.0 46.0 48.4 29.8 15.0 12.0 18.7 90.4 9.3 53.4 22.7 85.1 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4