GCC Weekly Wrap - 1 April

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP April 01 , 2018 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS US MBA Mortgage Applications - 4.80% (1.10%) US GDP Annualized QoQ Q4 T 2.70% 2.90% 2.50% UK GDP QoQ Q4 F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% UK GDP YoY Q4 F 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% US Initial Jobless Claims Mar-24th 230k 215k 227k Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Mar-23rd - 457.8b 455.4b US U. of Mich. Sentiment Japan Jobless Rate Japan France Mar F 102 101.4 102 Feb 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% Industrial Production MoM Feb P 5.00% 4.10% (6.80%) CPI YoY Mar P 1.40% 1.50% 1.20% Source: Bloomberg     2.74 Source: Bloomberg  US real GDP grew by 2.9% YoY during Q4-17, driven by higher personal consumption expenditure, fixed investment, exports and government spending. (Source: BEA) Saudi Arabian central bank’s decision to raise its repo rate and reverse repo rates would be a credit positive for its banking system, according to a Moody’s report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The US international trade deficit rose by USD 0.1bn to USD 75.4bn in Feb-18, driven by monthly rise in exports by USD 2.9bn and imports by USD 3.0bn. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau) Oman’s total production of refineries and petroleum industries rose by 25.8% YoY in Feb-18, driven by yearly rise in production of regular grade petrol, Mogas 91, by 52.0%. (Source: Gulf Base)  Eurozone’s broad monetary aggregate M3 supply fell by 4.2% YoY in Feb-18, weighed by 8.4% YoY decline in the narrower aggregate M1 supply. (Source: ECB Europe) Oman’s total value of non-oil exports rose by 30.0% YoY to OMR 2.6bn between Jan-17 and Oct-17, driven by stronger growth in the demand from neighboring countries. (Source: Muscat Daily)  Japan’s commercial sales rose by 0.8% MoM and 3.3% YoY to JPY 36.5tn in Feb-18. Retail sales rose by 1.6% YoY to JPY 11.0tn and wholesale sales grew by 4.0% YoY to JPY 25.5tn. (Source: METI) Bahrain is expected to witness 70.0% growth in its freehold apartment units driven by expected supply of almost 7,000 units planned for delivery between 2018-21. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait is planning to introduce several road and related infrastructure development projects worth KWD 8.0bn as a part of its long-term plans. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 26-Mar 130 19-Mar 127.7 12-Mar 131 Mar-23rd 05-Mar Mar 26-Feb Conf. Board Cons. Conf. 19-Feb US UST 10yr Bond 12-Feb 110.4 05-Feb Prior 109.1 29-Jan Actual 109.9 22-Jan Survey Mar 15-Jan Period Manufacturing Confidence 08-Jan Event Italy 01-Jan Region China’s industrial profits rose by 16.1% YoY to CNY 968.9bn (USD 154.6bn) during first two months of 2018, driven by higher sales along with effective cost cutting efforts. (Source: Reuters)  Indian government would borrow INR 2.9tn (USD 44.4bn) during H119 through bond sales. These sales are just 48% of the planned budget. In the previous years, the government generally borrowed 60% to 65% during the same period. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey’s total number of unemployed persons rose by 3.7% YoY to 3.5mn in FY-17. Thus, the unemployment rate stood at 10.9% during the same period. (Source: Turkstat)  Turkey’s Central Bank official reserve assets fell by 0.6% MoM to USD 114.6bn in Feb-18 while the foreign currency reserves fell by 0.6% MoM to USD 87.9bn. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS  UAE Central Bank’s total assets rose by 9.3% YoY to AED 398.6bn (USD 108.5bn) as at the end of Feb-18, driven by 33.4% rise in the bank’s deposits. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai and Abu Dhabi bourses’ listed 62 companies reported total cash dividend payout worth AED 33.1bn (USD 9.0bn) for FY-17. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE's free zones exports rose by 6.6% YoY to AED 225.5bn (USD 61.4bn) during 2017. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai's total value of non-oil external trade with South Korea rose 8.0% YoY to AED 27.4bn during 2017. The total imports amounted to AED 22.1bn while exports amounted at AED 4.5bn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  International index compiler FTSE Russel announced to include Saudi Arabia in its emerging market index in March-19. (Source: Gulf News) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s GDP grew 1.4% YoY during Q4-17, driven by a 3.7% YoY increase in non-hydrocarbon sector, which helped in offsetting a 0.4% YoY drop in hydrocarbon sector. (Source: Gulf Times)  The total value of non-oil exports rose by 4.8% MoM to QAR 2.2bn in Feb-18. Qatar exported goods and services to 62 countries in Feb-18 compared to 59 in Jan-18. (Source: Gulf Times)  Total number of building permits fell by 32.0% MoM to 640 in Feb-18, of which new building permits accounted for 62.0%. (Source: MDPS)  The trade surplus rose by 23.7% YoY but it fell 10.7% MoM to QAR 14.1bn in Feb-18. The MoM fall was due to 11.6% drop in exports of goods to QAR 22.4bn. (Source: The Peninsula)  The total number of new factories that have begun their production rose by 17.0% since the blockade, the country’s Minister of Energy and Industry stated. (Source: Gulf Times)  Rating agency, Capital Intelligence said that Qatar has overcome the negative impact of blockade and has become accustomed to the new change in supply chain and logistic arrangements. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is planning to make investments worth USD 190.0bn in Turkey in order to strengthen their business ties, according to the senior official of the Qatar Financial Centre. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Stock Exchange’s CEO stated that the exchanges would list around 35 companies over the next five years, of which 3 companies would be listed in 2018. (Source: The Peninsula)  Commercial Bank of Qatar would issue 200,000 contactless credit cards during 2018 and would install more than 5,000 terminals accepting contact-less cards in the country. (Source: Gulf Times) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP April 01 , 2018 EQUITY Index Price S&P 500 WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY Index Price WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 2,640.9 2.0 (2.7) (1.2) MSCI EM 1,170.9 (0.1) (2.0) 1.1 24,103.1 2.4 (3.7) (2.5) S&P GCC 1,652.0 (0.1) 1.7 3.7 Nasdaq 6,581.1 1.1 (4.0) 2.9 Dow Jones Islamic 3,613.5 1.5 (1.6) (0.7) FTSE 100 7,056.6 1.9 (2.4) (8.2) KSA (TASI) 7,870.9 0.4 6.1 8.9 12,096.7 1.8 (2.7) (6.4) UAE (DFM) 3,108.5 (1.3) (4.2) (7.8) DJIA DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei 5,167.3 1.4 (2.9) (2.7) UAE (ADX) 4,585.4 0.2 (0.3) 4.3 114,930.2 (1.4) (3.4) (0.3) Qatar (DSM) 8,574.0 (2.9) (0.9) 0.6 21,454.3 4.1 (2.8) (5.8) Kuwait (KSE) 6,633.4 (0.4) (2.1) 3.5 Sh. Comp 3,168.9 0.5 (2.8) (4.2) Bahrain (BAX) 1,318.4 (1.2) (3.8) (1.0) Hang Seng 30,093.4 (0.7) (2.4) 0.6 Oman (MSM) 4,773.5 (0.6) (4.6) (6.4) Sensex 32,968.7 1.1 (3.6) (3.2) Jordan (ASEGI) 2,233.3 0.6 0.6 5.0 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) (2.0) 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Source: Bloomberg (10.0) (5.0) 2.9 1.1 0.6 0.0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Dow Jones Islamic 1.5 KSA (TASI) UAE (ADX) (0.1) Kuwait (KSE) S&P GCC 3.7 3.5 Qatar (DSM) (0.4) Oman (MSM) Oman (MSM) (1.3) (1.0) (6.4) UAE (DFM) (7.8) (2.9) (4.0) (0.7) Bahrain (BAX) (1.2) UAE (DFM) 0.6 Dow Jones Islamic (0.6) Bahrain (BAX) 8.9 4.3 Kuwait (KSE) 0.2 S&P GCC Qatar (DSM) KSA (TASI) UAE (ADX) 0.4 (2.0) 0.0 (10.0) 2.0 Source: Bloomberg (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 Global equity markets rebounded from their steep losses during the holiday shortened week, amid easing tensions of a global trade war, after China cancelled its plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain US imports. All US equity benchmarks edged higher, with Dow Jones outperforming its key peers. Gains in the Nasdaq index remained limited, as certain Technology blue chip stocks declined during the middle of the week. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 1.4%, amid deal making optimism of regional companies. The FTSE 100 index edged 1.9% higher, supported by gains in most of the major Mining stocks. In Asia, the Nikkei index advanced 4.1%, as the safe haven JPY weakened amid easing tensions of a global trade war. GCC Most GCC equity markets ended lower during the week. The Saudi Arabian benchmark climbed 0.4%, after international index compiler FTSE Russel announced to include the nation to its emerging market index. Yanbu Cement rose 0.5%, after announcing to export cement and clinker from 1st April18. In Dubai, DXB Entertainments tumbled 7.6%, after the company reported losses in its FY-17 earnings report. In Abu Dhabi, Dana Gas soared 9.5%, after the company announced to pay dividends for the first time in several years. The Kuwaiti benchmark fell 0.4%. ZAIN Kuwait rose 4.4%, after the company announced that it is waiting for approvals from Saudi regulators to sell its towers. 5.0 Jordan (ASEGI) Nasdaq MSCI EM Hang Seng BIST 100 (0.3) S&P 500 (1.2) DJIA (2.5) CAC 40 (2.7) Sensex (3.2) Sh. Comp (4.2) Nikkei (5.8) DAX 30 (6.4) FTSE 100(8.2) 4.1 Nikkei DJIA S&P 500 FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 Sensex Nasdaq Jordan (ASEGI) Sh. Comp MSCI EM (0.1) Hang Seng (0.7) BIST 100 (1.4) Global Qatar The QE index declined 2.9%, underperforming its peer indices, due to increased selling pressure from foreign institutional investors. Trade turnover and volume declined during the week, with Banking, Industrial and Real Estate sectors together accounting for 72% of the total trade volume. Among the individual stocks, Qatar First Bank plunged 12.8%, after the lender reported a wider net loss for FY-17. Qatar German Medical Devices fell 3.2%, after the company’s FY-17 net loss more than doubled. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 37 declined and 8 advanced. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 10,500 9,500 8,574.0 8,500 7,500 Oct-17 Nov-17 Index Jan-18 50 SMA 100 SMA Mar-18 200 SMA Indicator Price Last Close 8,574.0 MAVG 50 8,923.2 MAVG 100 8,572.0 MAVG 200 8,692.0 6 Month High 9,459.6 6 Month Low 7,714.3 RSI (14 Days) 41.6 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP April 01 , 2018 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.00 2.50 2.27 4.00 2.97 3.04 1.92 1.26 3.78 3.40 4.45 3.63 3.00 2.39 1.50 4.19 3.01 2.74 2.56 2.38 2.00 1.00 4.72 5.00 3.50 2.82 2.00 1.49 1.00 0.50 2.39 1.93 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 10 Yrs 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) Global QGIB 2019 103.9 21.8 2.56 0.0 (1.4) US 27.5 0.6 3.2 0.3 QGIB 2020 103.8 50.2 2.96 0.0 (1.4) UK 18.9 (0.3) 1.6 (1.6) Qatari Diar 2020 97.0 72.9 3.35 0.2 (1.4) QGIB 2021 103.6 77.6 3.34 0.0 (1.5) Germany 11.7 0.0 1.1 1.2 QGIB 2022 103.4 84.9 3.47 0.3 (2.1) France 18.6 0.0 0.7 0.5 QGS 2023 98.1 97.9 3.64 0.3 (1.0) Italy 102.8 (2.0) 3.2 (17.4) QGIB 2026 94.8 125.5 3.98 0.2 (2.8) Greece 365.5 (2.0) 2.7 (62.1) QGIB 2030 150.5 157.5 4.34 0.7 (5.3) QGIB 2040 122.3 191.2 4.73 0.7 (6.2) QGIB 2042 114.4 190.3 4.72 0.7 (6.1) QGIB 2046 98.5 189.7 4.72 0.6 (5.5) 5 Years CDS Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Russia 124.9 1.6 20.4 (5.0) Japan 25.6 3.0 3.8 (1.6) Turkey 197.2 (3.2) 27.9 30.2 Brazil 166.1 (7.3) 8.0 2.2 Egypt 272.5 5.0 10.8 (56.7) Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates Tenor GCC Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 2.312 0.020 0.617 6M LIBOR 2.452 0.003 0.615 12M LIBOR 2.663 (0.004) 0.556 Abu Dhabi 63.3 1.2 4.9 (1.3) Bahrain 296.3 22.9 47.6 8.9 Dubai 107.6 (0.5) 3.2 (21.6) 2 years 2.582 (0.002) 0.502 Qatar 89.8 2.4 6.0 (13.6) 5 years 2.708 (0.043) 0.464 Saudi Arabia 86.2 1.3 6.9 (7.9) 10 years 2.790 (0.055) 0.390 30 years 2.824 (0.083) 0.280 International Credit Spreads Source: Bloomberg iTraxx Europe 59.9 (1.1) 7.2 14.7 iTraxx Europe Crossover 285.1 (6.8) 19.9 51.2 CDX North America IG 65.5 (2.2) 9.2 16.1 CDX North America HY 360.7 6.4 27.7 54.0 iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 22.4 (4.7) (1.1) 6.4 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 27.5 (7.0) (3.7) 7.1 Commentary US treasury yields declined during the last week, as investors sought safe haven government bonds amidst ongoing volatility in the stock market. Euro zone government bond yields slipped on back of disappointing Spanish inflation data and after ECB policymakers highlighted concerns about the muted inflationary environment in the region which hinders the central bank’s decision to revoke the monetary stimulus. Spanish government bond yields declined after S&P upgraded the country’s sovereign credit ratings. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP April 01 , 2018 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 69.3 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 64.9 Oil prices ended lower during the last week, weighed by data showing an unexpected rise in US crude inventories by 1.6mn barrels. The prices however, got some support after data showed decline in US oil rigs count for the first time in past three weeks. Natural gas prices inched higher despite smaller-than-expected decline in natural gas inventories, as colder weather is expected to support heating demand. Copper prices edged higher during the week, as easing fears of a global trade war increased appetite for base metals amongst the investors. Gold prices retreated, as strength in the USD weighed on the prices of the yellow metal. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.7 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,322.8 Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.3 Copper (USD/lb) 302.6 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Natural Gas WTI Crude 5.5 Copper Brent Natural Gas (1.6) Gold (5.1) (7.5) Copper (8.3) (2.0) (4.0) 1.0 Silver (1.4) Silver 3.7 Gold (0.3) WTI Crude 7.5 Brent 1.4 (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 (10.0) 6.0 Source: Bloomberg (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.4045 USD/INR 64.6775 EUR/USD 1.2354 USD/CNY 6.2755 CAD/USD 0.7755 USD/TRY 3.9553 AUD/USD 0.7679 USD/EGP 17.6526 0.7237 USD/ZAR 11.8408 106.2800 USD/RUB 57.3410 NZD/USD USD/JPY Commentary The USD ended higher against a basket of major currencies during the last week, as easing concerns of a global trade war and encouraging US GDP data supported the greenback. The CAD ended flat for the week, as disappointing Canadian economic growth data was offset but optimism surrounding the NAFTA deal. The JPY declined as demand for safe haven currencies declined as North Korean and Chinese leaders held talks for denuclearization, easing geopolitical jitters. The currency was also weighed by easing tensions on global trade war. The GBP weakened against the USD, following the release of broadly in-line UK Q4-17 GDP data. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) RUB TRY CNY NZD CAD INR EGP EUR AUD GBP ZAR JPY (2.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) JPY ZAR GBP CNY EUR NZD RUB EGP AUD INR CAD TRY 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.8) (0.9) (1.4) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 6.0 4.9 3.7 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.7 0.5 (1.7) (1.9) (2.5) (3.8) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4