GCC Daily Market Update - 18 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 18 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) Global Global stocks ended on a mixed note on Tuesday. US indices edged ~1% lower on increased prospects of interest rate hike, after release of a slew of positive economic data. The consumer price index grew 0.4% MoM in April-16, registering its largest one-month increase since February 2013, on back of rising oil prices. Industrial Production and US home buildings also showed substantial increases. European indices closed in red led by a fall in automakers after HSBC cut the sector to underweight from neutral. The losses were significantly offset by gains in commodity shares, on back of continued improvement oil prices. In Asia, Japan’s index gained 1.1% due to further weakness in yen. China’s index bucked the broader trend ending 0.3% lower amid worries that Beijing might taper monetary stimulus after Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to push ahead with the structural reforms and reduce the country's debt levels. GCC Most of the GCC markets edged up on Tuesday following sustained gain in oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s index rose 0.6%, mainly supported by Petrochemical shares (+1.3%). Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) jumped 4.6% after banks decided to waive off the breaches in loan contracts. Dubai’s index added 0.4% led by gains in Emaar Properties, which climbed 2.3%, while Abu Dhabi’s benchmarks dropped 0.5%, weighed down by a sell-off in heavyweight banking shares. Qatar QE index gained 0.1%, reflecting the sustained gains in the global oil prices. Strong buying interests were majorly witnessed in Insurance, Industrials and Consumer Goods counters. In terms of volume industrials, Banking and Telecom stocks together constituted about 84% of total traded, with major movers being Industries Qatar, Gulf International Services, Commercial Bank, al khaliji and Islamic Holding Group. Out of the 44 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 21 advanced, 15 declined and 5 stayed unchanged. 2,047.2 17,530.0 4,322.6 6,167.8 9,890.2 4,297.6 77,277.2 16,652.8 20,118.8 2,843.7 25,773.6 (19.5) (180.7) (57.9) 16.4 (62.7) (14.7) 277.5 186.4 234.9 (7.2) 120.4 (0.9) (1.0) (1.3) 0.3 (0.6) (0.3) 0.4 1.1 1.2 (0.3) 0.5 (0.9) (1.4) (0.4) (1.2) (1.5) (3.0) (9.4) (0.1) (4.5) (3.2) 0.7 0.2 0.6 (5.9) (1.2) (7.9) (7.3) 7.7 (12.5) (8.2) (19.7) (1.3) 10,010.7 6,739.8 4,325.2 3,301.7 5,367.3 5,959.3 1,108.1 1,459.1 2,795.9 14.2 40.6 (20.1) 11.4 19.1 (13.2) (0.4) (0.2) (12.8) 0.1 0.6 (0.5) 0.4 0.4 (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.5) (1.7) (1.0) (4.8) (5.4) (0.5) 0.3 (0.2) (3.9) (1.4) (4.0) (2.5) 0.4 4.8 (4.4) 10.2 (8.9) 0.9 (0.3) 49.3 48.3 2.0 1,276.9 209.2 0.3 0.6 0.0 2.7 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 2.6 5.5 (5.9) (1.1) (8.0) 32.4 30.8 (12.3) 20.4 (1.8) P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 13.2 1.6 4.1 86.7 10,400 DSM 20 13.7 1.6 4.1 51.1 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.6 1.6 3.6 1,585.7 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.4 5.6 27.5 8,900 UAE (DFM) 10.9 1.2 4.3 60.1 Kuwait (KSE) 17.6 1.0 4.8 48.6 8,400 22/Feb Oman (MSM) 11.3 1.4 4.3 7.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.2 0.6 4.9 0.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers QGRI Islamic Holding Group Medicare Group Gulf Intl. Services National Leasing Top Losers Vodafone Qatar Aamal Co QGMD Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatari Investors Group Close Price 47.9 68.7 101.8 37.7 18.4 3.9 2.1 2.8 0.9 0.4 8.8 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 3.0 (12.7) (14.7) (26.8) 30.4 (6.8) 0.2 4.6 (41.6) 76.5 112.1 (41.3) 97.9 19.7 (54.1) 2,221.8 13.4 (10.9) 705.3 NA 11.1 13.4 12.2 59.0 51.0 (0.4) (0.3) (0.1) (0.5) (0.2) (3.6) (1.8) (1.1) (0.8) (0.4) (12.7) (4.6) (10.9) (18.1) 35.3 (38.2) 1,620.9 NA (19.5) 360.0 13.3 (28.6) 97.9 NA (31.4) 4.9 12.5 (7.6) 743.9 24.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,900 20.0 10,010.7 10.0 7/Mar 21/Mar 4/Apr Index Volume (mn) 18/Apr 2/May 0.0 16/May Index Value Closing Level 2,678.8 6,604.4 3,124.0 4,268.2 2,489.7 1,126.6 2,516.0 1D Change (%) 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.1 (2.4) 0.1 Buy (%) 46.8 21.0 67.8 19.7 12.5 32.2 Sell (%) 54.1 15.9 70.0 19.1 10.9 30.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 18 , 2016 formation of a new subsidiary called Nawah Energy Company to operate and maintain the UAE's first nuclear reactors at Barakah. It will provide almost 25% of the UAE’s electricity needs and save up to 12mn tons of greenhouse gas emissions each year. (Source: Arabian GLOBAL NEWS  US CPI rose 0.4% in April-16 from the prior month after rising 0.1% in March-16 according to Labor Department, the largest increase since February-13. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)  US new residential construction saw a substantial rebound in the month of April-16. Housing starts jumped 6.6% to an annual rate of 1.2mn units in April-16 after plunging 9.4% to 1.1mn units in March16. Building permits rose 3.6% to a rate of 1.1mn units in April-16 after tumbling 7.3% to 1.1mn units in March-16. (Source: RTT)  UK inflation slowed unexpectedly in April-16 on account of weak air fares and clothing prices. Factory costs continued to decline due to a fall in petroleum product prices. Inflation eased to 0.3% in April-16. Core inflation slowed to 1.2% in April-16 from 1.5% a month ago. Business)  Dubai’s trade of perfumes and cosmetics stood at AED 20.5bn in 2015, marking a 25% growth rate in the 2011-2015 period, according to Dubai Customs. In 2015, the emirate imported AED 12.2bn worth of cosmetics and perfumes, while the value of exports and re-exports to neighbouring Middle Eastern countries was AED 2.1bn and AED 6.2bn, respectively. (Source: Gulf News)  Dubai’s DP World could buy back around half of its USD 1.5bn sukuk offering which is due to mature in 2017 as the global ports operator seeks to reduce the cost of its debt. DP World's offer to buy the sukuk at USD 10,555 when the face value is USD 10,000. (Source: Arabian (Source: RTT)  The Germany economy grew by 0.7% in Q1-16, its strongest quarterly rate since the Q1-14, compared to 0.3% in Q4-15. The growth was partly the result of the mild winter weather buoying construction activity. (Source: Reuters)  Germany’s factory Employment in the manufacturing sector rose 1.0% YoY in March-16 to 5.4mn. The number of hours worked grew 3.2% to 717mn hours. Earnings of employees totaled EUR 21.6bn in March-16, up 2.4% YoY from March-15. (Source: Hellenic shipping news)  Italy's foreign trade surplus rose to EUR 5.4bn in March-16 from EUR 3.8bn in March-15 as imports fell faster than exports, according to statistical office ISTAT. In February-16, the surplus was EUR 3.86bn. (Source: London South East)  Italy's economy will grow by 1.1% in 2016, according ISTAT, which is cutting its previous estimate of 1.4% made in November-15 due to a weaker outlook for world trade. (Source: FT)  Japan's GDP expanded 0.4% QoQ in Q1-16, while nominal GDP grew 0.5% QoQ. On a yearly basis, GDP surged 1.7% surpassing the forecasted gain of 0.3% following the 1.1% contraction in Q4-15. (Source: RTT) Business)  Dubai Investments signed a deal with Abu Dhabi National Company for Building Materials to set up a steel plant in Musaffah, Abu Dhabi, at a cost of AED 250mn. The new plant, expected to go on stream by the end of 2017, will produce 300,000 metric tonnes of steel per annum. (Source: Emirates247)  Saudi Arabia is holding USD 116.8bn worth of US government debt, as on March-16, according to the US Treasury Department. Saudi Arabia is followed by UAE, with USD 62.5bn worth of US government debt, Kuwait (USD 31.2bn), Oman (USD 15.9bn), Iraq (USD 13.4bn) and Qatar (USD 3.7bn). (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman Investment Fund has agreed to invest USD 50mn in the IPO of BOC Aviation, the aircraft leasing unit of Bank of China. BOC Aviation attracted investors including Boeing and the Chinese sovereign wealth fund to buy shares in its USD 1.1bn IPO in Hong Kong. (Source: Times of Oman) QATAR NEWS  GCC NEWS       The UAE and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement to set up a coordination council. The council will seek to develop religious, historical, social and cultural ties between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the Saudi ambassador to the UAE said. (Source: Arabian Business) Moody’s Investors Service has confirmed the long-term ratings of five UAE banks. The banks and their confirmed ratings are National Bank of Abu Dhabi Aa3, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank A1, Union National Bank A1, Al Hilal Bank A1, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank A2. All the banks’ ratings have been placed on negative outlook. (Source: Emirates247) Number of passengers who travelled through the UAE airports surged 79.8% to 41.1mn in Q1-16, according to General Civil Aviation Authority of UAE. Dubai’s newest airport counted 257,813 passengers during the first three months of the year, a sharp increase from 143,374 during the same period of 2015. (Source: The Gulf Today) Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority has invited bids from construction companies to build a 350 megawatt solar plant in the emirate. The plant would be the Abu Dhabi power utility's first foray into renewable energy. (Source: Arabian Business) Adnoc Distribution signed a 50-year Mustaha agreement with Abu Dhabi Ports aiming to strengthen its capacity to develop new projects at Khalifa Industrial Zone (Kizad) and provide logistical support to its existing developments. The main products from the plant will include vehicle lubricants, marine lubricants, industrial lubricants, greases, and various specialty fluids. (Source: Gulf News) The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation has announced the The State of Qatar plans a sale of international bond and has mandated HSBC, JP Morgan, Mitsubishi UFG and QNB Capital as global coordinators on a potential US dollar bond. The four banks have joined on the books by al Khalij, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Mizuho Securities and SMBC Nikko. (Source: Zawya)  The Ministry of Municipality and Environment and Japanese company Mitsui & Co have signed an agreement for cooperation in agriculture development. The deal focused on transfer of agricultural technology and enhance agricultural research at centers based in Rawdat Al Faras and Al Ettariyyah. (Source: Zawya)  Vodafone Qatar reported a net loss of QAR 465.7mn for the year ended March-16 compared to net loss of QAR 215.8mn for March15. (Source: QSE)  Qatar Airways said that it had raised its stake in the British Airwaysowner, International Consolidated Airlines Group, to 15.0% and it is under consideration to acquire more of the firm over time. (Source: Arabian Business)  Vodafone Qatar’s Chairman was replaced by Sheikh Khalid Bin Thani on an interim basis. Al-Naimi currently represents Qatar Foundation which owns 27% of Vodafone Qatar on the telecom firm’s board. (Source: Doha News)  Ezdan Holding Group witnessed 1.67 times oversubscription of USD 500mn sukuk with a fixed coupon rate of 4.38% p.a., the first ever international issuance by a private sector Qatari corporate. The transaction attracted an order-book of USD 837mn. (Source: Gulf Times)  United Development Company’s Extraordinary General Assembly approved an amendment that facilitates increasing the percentage of non-Qatari ownership in the company’s shares from 25% to 49%. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 18 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1339 USD/QAR 3.6400 108.6300 EUR/QAR 4.1274 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4395 JPY/QAR 0.0335 USD/CHF 0.9755 GBP/QAR 5.2398 USD/CAD 1.2940 CHF/QAR 3.7314 AUD/USD 0.7271 CAD/QAR 2.8130 NZD/USD 0.6775 AUD/QAR 2.6466 USD/INR 66.2737 INR/QAR 0.0549 USD/TRY 2.9701 TRY/QAR 1.2255 USD/ZAR 15.4038 ZAR/QAR 0.2363 USD/BRL 3.5335 BRL/QAR 1.0301 FX Commentary USD remained mostly flat against the euro and Japanese yen yesterday, as traders remained skeptical about the US Fed’s rates hike in the near future despite strong April inflation data. They also treaded cautiously ahead of a weekend meeting of G-7 countries. The USD surged against the EUR in the early trade after the data showed US consumer prices recorded their biggest jump in more than three years in April, driven by higher gasoline prices and rent, but it did not sustain the rally as traders doubted that the data would support a rate hike. The USD gained about 0.23% against the CHF. The CAD also slightly edged down against its US counterpart despite higher oil prices, as traders stayed away from taking large positions as US Fed officials discussed rate hike possibilities. The dollar index was trading about 0.05% down at 94.522 towards the end. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.63 1.23 (0.40) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.01) 1.22 1.27 1.35 1.49 1.84 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR SAIBOR NA NA 1.80 2.10 2.31 EIBOR 0.29 0.38 0.68 1.07 1.63 BMIBOR 0.45 0.65 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.25% 5.0% 2.5% 2.10% 2.41% 2.41% 1.11% 1.40% 1.68% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.89% 2.55% 0.62% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 21.4 0.9 Turkey 269.6 27.6 UK 35.0 17.7 Brazil 332.4 (77.4) Germany 18.6 5.5 Egypt 480.7 27.6 France 38.8 10.6 Abu Dhabi 93.7 18.8 128.2 31.5 Bahrain 367.6 22.7 1.73% 2.0% 1.0% 2.33% 2.05% 2.08% 0.89% 0.87% 2.78% 1.58% 1.36% 1.18% Italy Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,029.0 33.2 Dubai 209.4 2.3 Russia 250.5 (4.5) Qatar 100.2 24.7 Japan 37.0 (12.0) Saudi Arabia 151.8 (2.4) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 11:30 UK Claimant Count Rate Period Survey Prior Apr 2.10% 2.10% 11:30 UK Jobless Claims Change Apr 5.0k 6.7k 11:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Mar 5.10% 5.10% 12:00 EC CPI MoM 12:00 EC CPI YoY 12:00 EC CPI Core YoY 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 15:30 Canada Int'l Securities Transactions 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD 16:00 Russia CPI WoW May-16th -- 0.10% 2:50 Japan Machine Orders MoM Mar (2.00%) (9.20%) 2:50 Japan Machine Orders YoY Mar 0.80% (0.70%) 2:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks May-13th -- (¥434.6b) Apr 0.00% 1.20% Apr F (0.20%) (0.20%) Apr F 0.70% 0.70% May-13th -- 0.40% Mar -- 15.94b May-16th -- 2.70% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Vodafone Qatar 516.1 (9.6) (3.9) (180.1) 172.8 149.5 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 18 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.1 0.0 8.3 1.6 6.0 5.1 2.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.4 6.5 2.1 5.2 3.6 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.8 0.0 9.0 4.5 4.6 4.9 7.2 2.7 5.0 5.5 3.8 3.6 2.4 7.4 3.8 4.5 3.9 5.1 3.0 3.1 6.8 3.3 6.9 2.8 2.0 8.0 4.0 3.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.5 2.0 5.4 5.6 5.0 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.7 1.1 2.3 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.9 3.5 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.7 3.8 0.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 3.3 2.7 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.9 2.7 0.6 3.0 1.6 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 2.7 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.6 9.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.4 12.2 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.1 11.7 10.2 27.3 10.7 19.3 25.7 17.7 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.9 13.9 7.3 13.2 13.3 13.1 14.6 8.4 19.6 15.2 24.3 10.4 11.2 14.8 19.7 9.2 14.4 4.3 12.5 10.0 27.6 27.6 13.5 9.7 23.0 11.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 15.5 18.9 12.8 9.4 11.7 12.9 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 5.3 10.3 4.7 5.7 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 27.8 70.7 20.0 36.0 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.5 37.0 22.7 36.2 66.5 16.6 34.1 17.5 12.4 96.1 61.6 138.6 11.5 99.3 216.1 38.0 157.5 11.9 11.1 59.8 87.8 13.2 37.0 101.0 90.6 18.4 207.0 51.6 40.5 87.0 25.6 19.8 76.0 44.0 59.0 32.1 18.0 13.9 18.8 90.0 11.7 61.7 23.0 89.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the inf ormation provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4