GCC Daily Market Update - 24 April

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP April 24 , 2016 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Region Actual Prior Germany ZEW Current Situation Event Apr Period Survey 50.8 47.7 50.7 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Apr 8 11.2 4.3 UK Jobless Claims Change Mar (10.0k) 6.7k (9.3k) UK ILO Unemployment Rate Feb 5.10% 5.10% 5.10% US MBA Mortgage Applications Apr-15th -- 1.30% 10.00% EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate Apr-21st 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% US Initial Jobless Claims Apr-16th 265k 247k 253k Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Apr-15th Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Apr P Japan Tertiary Ind. Index MoM Canada CPI NSA MoM Canada CPI YoY -- 386.2b 387.9b 49.5 48 49.1 Feb (0.50%) (0.10%) 0.70% Mar 0.50% 0.60% 0.20% Mar 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS   US unemployment benefits applications fell, as initial jobless claims dropped by 6,000 to 247,000 in the week to 16 Apr-16, the lowest level since 24 Nov-1973. (Source: RTT) UST 10yr Bond 2.00 1.90 1.85 1.80 1.70 1.60 Jan-16 Feb-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Apr-16 Source: Bloomberg  Bahrain’s Energy Minister said that the Kingdom is expected to save USD 1.6bn by 2019 through its various cuts and redirection of subsidies. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain’s non-oil growth reached 3.9% in 2015, according to the Economic Development Board. While the overall GDP growth for the year was 2.9%. (Source: Trade Arabia) Eurozone’s government deficit declined to 2.1% of GDP at EUR 215bn in 2015 from 2.6% of GDP in 2014. The govrenmnet debt to GDP ratio too fell, but in absolute trems the debt increased to EUR 9.4tn during the year. (Source: RTT)   The ECB left key interest rates unchanged on 4 Apr-16, however, indicated further stimulus measures if required. (Source: RTT) Qatar’s spending on new construction and transport contracts has fallen by 92% YoY to USD 830mn in the Q1-16. (Source: Doha News)   German economic sentiment rose by 6.9 points to 11.2 in Apr-16 on easing concerns over China. (Source: RTT) Average spending on luxury goods and experiences in Qatar was more than USD 4,000 per month per household (the highest in GCC except Saudi Arabia) in 2015. (Source: Zawya)  Japan's exports dropped 6.8% YoY to JPY 6.46tn in Mar-16, majorly due to continued strength in the yen. (Source: QNA)   Japan’s Markit/Nikkei Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in Apr-16, after earthquakes halted production. (Source: RTT) Qatar Prime Minister inaugurated the first phase of Imdad project, which aims to develop a national information system to achieve sustainability of the economic and urbanization levels in Qatar.  India's wholesale prices fell 0.85% YoY in Mar-16 on the back of sliding crude oil and manufactured product prices. (Source: Times of India)  Turkey's Central Bank lowered its overnight lending rate by 50 bps to 10.0% from 10.5% earlier. (Source: Bloomberg) GCC NEWS  A summit between oil producing nations in Doha to freeze output concluded without an agreement, as Saudi Arabia insisted on Iran’s participation in the freeze. (Source: CNBC)  Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell to 7.55mn barrels per day (bpd) in Feb-16 from 7.84mn bpd in Jan-16. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia is close to securing a USD 10bn 5-year bank loan, priced around 120 bps above LIBOR. (Source: Reuters)  The Central Bank of Bahrain’s BHD 43mn issue of Sukuk Al-Salam, having maturity of 91 days and an expected return of 2.08%, has been over-subscribed by 143%. (Source: CBB)  Oman’s CPI increased by 0.11% YoY in Mar-16, led by increase in transport, housing, water and electricity. (Source: Times Of Oman)  Oman's Producer Price Index eased by 23.3% YoY in Q4-15, dragged by a 26.6% YoY fall in oil & gas product prices. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman has chosen five banks to arrange the Sultanate's first international bond issue in almost 20 years. (Source: Zawya)  Total revenue of companies in MSM Index increased 7.3% YoY for Q1-16 to reach OMR 958mn, while net profits rose 10% YoY to OMR 174.6mn. (Source: Oman Daily Observer) QATAR NEWS (Source: Zawya)  Qatar International Islamic Bank’s CEO announced that the Bank is set to open 3 new branches in major upcoming malls. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatargas, United Arab Shipping Company and Shell have signed a MoU to explore the development of LNG as a marine fuel in the Middle East region. (Source: GulfBase)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed Barwa Bank’s Long-term Issuer Default Rating at ‘A+’ with Stable Outlook. (Source: The Peninsula)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed Qatar National Bank's Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'AA-'. The agency has also affirmed the IDRs of The Commercial Bank, Doha Bank, Qatar Islamic Bank, Al Khalij Commercial Bank, Qatar International Islamic Bank and Ahli Bank and International Bank of Qatar at 'A+'. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar First Bank will list shares on the Qatar Exchange on 27 Apr-16, in what will be only the second flotation on Qatar's stock market since 2010. (Source: Zawya)  Masraf Al Rayan’s net profit increased 5.1% YoY to QAR 537mn in Q116. (Source: Zawya)  Doha Bank’s net profit fell 16% YoY to QAR 354.2mn in Q1-16. Loans & advances increased by 11.8% YoY to QAR 56.9bn while deposits showed an increase of 13.7% YoY to QAR 51.4bn. (Source: Gulf Base)  Qatar Electricity & Water Company reported a net profit of QAR 347mn in Q1-16 compared to QAR 346mn Q1-15. Sales increased by 8% YoY to QAR 718mn during the period. (Source: QNA)  Ezdan Holding Group approved the distribution of 5% cash dividends for 2015, which is equivalent to QAR 50 per share. (Source: Gulf Times) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP April 24 , 2016 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,091.6 0.5 1.5 2.3 MSCI EM 845.2 (0.2) 1.0 6.4 18,003.8 0.6 1.8 3.3 S&P GCC 1,526.6 0.6 2.6 5.5 Nasdaq 4,474.2 (1.5) (0.2) (2.6) Dow Jones Islamic 2,873.6 0.4 2.0 2.6 FTSE 100 6,310.4 (0.5) 2.2 1.1 KSA (TASI) 6,587.7 1.2 5.9 (4.7) DAX 30 10,373.5 3.2 4.1 (3.4) UAE (DFM) 3,583.8 1.0 6.8 13.7 CAC 40 4,569.7 1.7 4.2 (1.5) UAE (ADX) 4,636.8 2.2 5.6 7.6 BIST 100 85,828.7 0.3 3.1 19.7 Qatar (DSM) 10,396.3 1.5 0.2 (0.3) Nikkei S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 17,572.5 4.3 4.9 (7.7) Kuwait (KSE) 5,347.0 0.9 2.3 (4.8) Sh. Comp 2,959.2 (3.9) (1.5) (16.4) Bahrain (BAX) 1,122.2 (0.1) (0.8) (7.7) Hang Seng 21,467.0 0.7 3.3 (2.0) Oman (MSM) 5,817.2 1.0 6.4 7.6 Sensex 25,838.1 0.8 2.0 (1.1) Jordan (ASEGI) 2,156.4 1.2 0.2 0.9 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 4.3 Nikkei DAX 30 CAC 40 Jordan (ASEGI) Sensex Hang Seng DJIA S&P 500 BIST 100 MSCI EM FTSE 100 Nasdaq Sh. Comp 3.2 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 (0.2) (0.5) (1.5) (3.9) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 BIST 100 MSCI EM DJIA S&P 500 FTSE 100 Jordan (ASEGI) Sensex CAC 40 Hang Seng Nasdaq DAX 30 Nikkei Sh. Comp (16.4) 6.0 Source: Bloomberg 19.7 6.4 3.3 2.3 1.1 0.9 GCC All GCC countries posted weekly gains with the exception of Bahrain, which was a negligible 0.1% lower than the previous week. UAE’s ADX led the gainers, rising 2.2% over the previous week while Kuwait rose at the lowest pace of 0.9%. DFM surged 1.0% during the week. There were 22 gainers and 13 losers but the volume fell to a three week low. The rise in Petrochemical stocks helped Saudi’s Tadawul on Thursday as the index ended the week 1.2% higher. (1.1) (1.5) (2.0) (2.6) (3.4) (7.7) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) 2.2 Qatar (DSM) 1.5 KSA (TASI) 1.2 UAE (ADX) 7.6 7.6 UAE (DFM) 1.0 S&P GCC Oman (MSM) 1.0 Dow Jones Islamic Kuwait (KSE) 0.6 Dow Jones Islamic 0.4 Bahrain (BAX) (0.3) KSA (TASI) (4.7) Kuwait (KSE) (4.8) Bahrain (BAX) (7.7) (0.1) (1.0) 5.5 2.6 Qatar (DSM) 0.9 S&P GCC 13.7 Oman (MSM) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Source: Bloomberg (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Global The global stock markets had a relatively positive week buoyed particularly by the rally of oil prices despite the Doha meeting ending without any consenus among oil majors on production cap. US indices were also driven by result announcements. S&P 500 gained 0.5%, Dow Jones was up 0.6% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.5%. European stocks finished lower on Friday, dragged down by a disappointing inflation data but most of them ended the week in green. CAC 40 and DAX 30 gained of 1.7% and 3.2%, respectively, whereas FTSE 100 ended the week 0.5% lower. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei gained for a second consecutive week as the yen weakened and hopes strengthened among traders that the BoJ will provide more economic stimulus. The Shanghai Composite recorded its worst week in the past three months, as investors began to contemplate that the recent round of loose money policy and accommodative interest rates are nearing their end. Steelmakers and miners fared poorly. Qatar The QE index was up 1.5% over the week, making it the second best performer in GCC. Market capitalization gained more than QAR 7bn to QAR 555.15bn with micro, large and midcap equities gaining 1.43%, 0.71% and 0.44%, respectively even as smallcap shrank 1.16% during the week. Local retail investors turned bullish and there was reduced selling pressure from domestic institutions during the week which saw Doha Bank report a net profit of QAR 354mn for Q1-16. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX Indicator Price Last Close 10,396.3 MAVG 50 10,158.0 10,400 MAVG 100 9,944.6 9,400 MAVG 200 10,714.1 6 Month High 11,586.0 6 Month Low 8,516.8 12,400 11,400 8,400 Nov-15 10,396.3 Dec-15 Index Jan-16 50 SMA 100 SMA Mar-16 200 SMA RSI (14 Days) 60.2 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP April 24 , 2016 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.00 2.50 1.91 2.00 4.50 2.61 4.00 3.50 1.36 0.82 4.18 3.15 3.00 1.67 1.50 1.00 2.71 2.29 2.50 1.89 2.00 1.67 1.32 0.50 0.00 0.51 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current Last Year 7 Yrs 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) US 20.7 (0.2) 0.2 1.5 UK 36.5 (6.0) (3.1) 17.7 Germany 18.5 0.1 (1.3) 6.0 France 37.7 1.7 3.6 11.7 Italy 128.0 (3.2) (0.1) Greece 1,111.8 (25.7) Russia 247.5 Japan Turkey Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGIB 2017 101.5 24.2 0.71 (0.0) (0.3) QGS 2018 101.4 35.8 1.12 NA 0.1 QGIB 2019 114.1 55.5 1.53 (0.3) (0.9) QGIB 2020 111.2 95.3 2.02 (0.4) 0.3 Qatari Diar 2020 110.9 107.1 2.28 NA (1.6) 31.3 QGIB 2022 110.9 108.3 2.40 0.1 1.2 (36.8) 29.7 QGS 2023 104.2 108.5 2.51 0.1 0.5 (15.0) (44.5) (59.8) QGIB 2030 163.9 199.3 3.80 (0.3) 6.0 37.0 (5.5) (9.5) (11.6) QGIB 2040 133.8 206.1 4.12 (0.8) 7.2 237.5 (1.4) (24.7) (39.6) QGIB 2042 124.7 206.1 4.15 (0.8) 7.1 Global Brazil 358.7 17.3 (35.2) (145.4) Egypt 475.5 22.4 (25.0) (3.3) Abu Dhabi 87.9 3.1 (2.7) (4.7) Bahrain 356.8 (10.2) (21.0) (8.8) Dubai 209.9 2.0 1.9 (23.8) Qatar 88.0 1.3 (3.4) (4.5) Saudi Arabia 149.5 2.5 (6.0) (6.3) 68.7 (4.6) (4.4) 68.7 GCC Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates Tenor International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 5 Yrs Current Source: Bloomberg 5 Years CDS 0.80 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 2.05 1.70 1.00 0.50 2.51 1.32 1.50 3.98 2.46 Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 0.638 0.005 0.025 6M LIBOR 0.913 0.011 0.067 12M LIBOR 1.239 0.018 0.061 2 years 0.952 0.095 (0.227) 5 years 1.312 0.145 (0.433) 10 years 1.750 0.142 (0.438) 30 years 2.237 0.142 (0.385) iTraxx Europe Crossover 293.0 (24.6) (13.8) 293.0 Source: Bloomberg CDX North America IG 73.4 (7.2) (5.7) 73.4 Commentary CDX North America HY 420.7 (18.1) (15.6) 420.7 iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 62.3 (11.1) (13.3) 62.3 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 93.7 (31.1) (34.4) 93.7 Treasury prices fell and yields rose again this week as demand for riskier assets increased following gains in global equities. Municipal bond returns were relatively unchanged as ample demand for new issues was offset by weakness in Treasury. High yield bonds strongly advanced for a second consecutive week. Recent new issues were well received. Energy and metals & mining bonds traded higher. The investment-grade corporate bond market ended flat for the week, receiving marginal support from low supply and high demand. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP April 24 , 2016 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 45.1 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 43.7 Brent rallied 4.7% during the week, notching its third straight week of gains as market sentiment turned more upbeat amid signs of easing global supply glut. Oil started on a weak note, following the failure of Doha talks, however staged a rally after reports showed that the US production fell to 8.95 mn barrels a day. Baker Hughes data showing another fall in rigs also boosted the prices. Rig count fell to 343 this week, which is the least since November 2009. Re-emergence of talks at the Paris conference to freeze output also lent to the optimism. US Natural gas prices rallied on signs that summer-like temperatures in the Eastern states will help trim supply glut. Gold ended 0.4% lower, dragged by strength in dollar and gains in global equities. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.1 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,228.7 Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.0 Copper (USD/lb) 226.5 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) Natural Gas WTI Crude Copper Brent Silver Gold YTD Performance (%) Silver Brent WTI Crude Gold Copper Natural Gas 12.5 8.3 5.2 4.7 3.6 (0.4) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 (15.0) Source: Bloomberg 23.1 21.0 18.1 15.9 6.1 (8.4) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.4433 USD/INR 65.9837 EUR/USD 1.1252 USD/CNY 6.4995 CAD/USD 0.7894 USD/TRY 2.8488 AUD/USD 0.7708 USD/EGP 8.8835 NZD/USD 0.6852 USD/ZAR 14.3973 111.7900 USD/JPY 66.5325 USD/RUB Commentary USD closed the week higher against most of its peers, wth the dollar index ending 0.3% in green, led by gains in the US stock market, and accommodative monitory policy stance of BoJ and ECB. JPY closed the week 2.7% lower after the Bank of Japan report suggested that the Central Bank is considering offering negative loans to Japanese banks to further stimulate the sluggish economy. Higher risk appetite also reduced the demand for the safe haven. EUR fell after ECB president indicated the ECB will maintain an accommodative monetary policy for an “extended time”, and that quantitative easing at current or increased levels will continue till inflation reaches the target. CAD benefitted from gains in oil prices. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) GBP CAD ZAR TRY EGP INR RUB AUD CNY EUR NZD JPY (2.7) (3.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) RUB CAD JPY ZAR AUD EUR TRY NZD CNY INR GBP EGP 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) (1.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 9.6 9.2 7.6 7.5 5.8 3.3 2.5 0.3 (0.2) (0.7) (2.3) (11.8) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall Commercial Bank or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4