GCC Daily Market Update - 14 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 14 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,079.1 17,732.5 4,422.8 6,045.0 9,657.4 4,227.0 76,534.2 16,019.2 20,513.0 2,833.1 26,396.8 (17.0) (132.9) (38.3) (70.8) (177.2) (79.7) (353.1) (582.2) (529.7) (94.1) (239.0) (0.8) (0.7) (0.9) (1.2) (1.8) (1.9) (0.5) (3.5) (2.5) (3.2) (0.9) (0.9) (0.3) (2.2) (3.0) (5.9) (6.2) (1.6) (7.1) (1.5) (2.9) (1.0) 1.7 1.8 (3.7) (3.2) (10.1) (8.8) 6.7 (15.8) (6.4) (20.0) 1.1 9,704.4 6,589.6 4,365.1 3,323.4 5,412.3 5,847.4 1,123.3 1,453.8 2,820.9 (89.7) 18.8 (2.8) (12.7) (10.1) (21.0) 7.4 0.0 (32.1) (0.9) 0.3 (0.1) (0.4) (0.2) (0.4) 0.7 0.0 (1.1) 1.7 2.2 2.7 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 (1.1) (7.0) (4.7) 1.3 5.5 (3.6) 8.2 (7.6) (0.5) 0.6 50.4 48.9 2.6 1,284.4 205.4 (0.2) (0.2) 0.0 11.0 2.3 (0.4) (0.4) 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 (1.5) 12.9 5.7 (2.0) 33.7 30.5 10.6 21.1 (3.8) Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets closed in red on Monday following weak economic data released in Japan and China and increased concerns over Brexit. Asian markets closed lower, with Japan’s Nikkei leading the drop, closing 3.5% in red. The index was impacted by a strong surge in yen and a fall in business survey index of sentiment. China’s benchmark closed 3.2% lower following data showing weakness in investment growth. European indices tracked their Asian peers lower. The broad based Stoxx 600 fell 1.1%, in a broad based fall, following increased fears on Brexit after two opinion poll intensified probability of the same. All sectors lost ground, led by Financial (2.5%), Telecommunication (1.8%) and Industrial (1.9%) shares. US markets also ended lower following steep drop in Asian and European indices amid fresh jitters about the world’s economy. GCC Most major Gulf indices closed in red on Monday tracking movements in global bourses and a further drop in oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s index started on a weak note, however closed the session 0.3% in green, buoyed by Saudi Electricity Co (SEC) which climbed 2.5%. SEC benefited after it announced that it was inviting expressions of interest from companies to build two solar power plants which would sell electricity to the company. Dubai's index lost 0.4%, weighed down by further declines in large caps. Realty major Emaar Properties fell 1%. In Abu Dhabi, heavyweight banking shares were the main drag on the index. Qatar QE index closed 0.9% lower, registering its third consecutive session in red. The fall was majorly due to drop in oil prices and pessimistic sentiments in global equity markets. Foreign and Gulf Institutions were net sellers in the market. About 71% of the stocks closed in red, with sell-off concentrated majorly in Realty and Insurance segments. In terms of volume Banking, Telecom, Real estate and Industrials stocks together constituted about 78% of the total traded. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar All share 1.5 4.2 23.3 1.5 10,400 DSM 20 1.5 4.2 18.6 1.5 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 1.5 3.7 924.4 1.5 9,400 UAE (ADX) 1.4 5.6 19.5 1.4 8,900 UAE (DFM) 1.2 4.2 90.0 1.2 Kuwait (KSE) 1.0 4.5 37.5 1.0 8,400 21/Mar Oman (MSM) 1.3 4.4 4.2 1.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 0.4 4.9 14.5 0.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers National Leasing Qatar Fuel Qsc Qatar Intl Islamic Ooredoo Qsc Doha Bank Qsc Top Losers Ezdan Holding Group Islamic Holding Group Zad Holding Co QIMD Dlala Holding Close Price 17.0 152.0 61.9 86.4 35.0 0.2 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 20.6 11.3 (3.7) 15.2 (21.3) (17.5) (5.1) (21.6) (1.8) (32.7) 17.3 59.1 84.0 40.1 20.2 (0.6) (1.9) (2.0) (0.9) (0.3) (3.2) (3.1) (2.3) (2.2) (1.6) 8.9 (24.9) (0.9) 0.6 9.2 2.5 (47.3) (16.7) (12.0) (26.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 20.7 NA 1.3 11.0 14.9 11.8 62.7 11.1 98.0 7.6 188.6 52.4 0.4 9.9 13.5 26.2 96.4 11.4 10.3 NA Qatar DSM Index 10,900 15.0 9,704.4 10.0 5.0 4/Apr 18/Apr 2/May Index Volume (mn) 16/May 30/May 0.0 13/Jun Index Value Closing Level 2,636.6 6,389.1 3,003.3 4,017.3 2,409.1 1,078.0 2,444.0 1D Change (%) (0.2) 0.2 (0.8) (1.3) (2.3) 0.1 (0.4) Buy (%) 28.0 35.6 63.6 13.3 23.1 36.4 Sell (%) 29.3 34.2 63.5 6.8 29.7 36.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 14 , 2016 seeking bids from consultancy firms to provide financial and commercial advisory services to build additional water desalination capacity, in the range of 225,000 to 325,000 cubic meters per day, to serve residents of the Muscat-Barka area in 2021. (Source: Times Of Oman) GLOBAL NEWS  China’s Industrial output was up 6% YoY in May-16, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. On a YoY basis, retail sales were up 10% and fixed asset investment climbed 9.6% in May-16. (Source: RTT News)   Japan’s Business Survey Index of sentiment for large manufacturers stood at -11.1 in Q2 16, compared to -7.9 in Q1 16, according to the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute. Bahrain-based GFH Financial Group has announced that its Dubai unit has signed an agreement to acquire a portfolio of industrial real estate located in the US for USD 65mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ''BB/B'' long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Kingdom of Bahrain. The outlook on both Bahrain and its central bank is stable (Source: CPI (Source: Reuters)   Fitch Rating affirmed Japan's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings at A and has revised the outlook to Negative from Stable. The outlook was lowered citing reduced confidence over the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation. (Source: RTT News) India's consumer price inflation accelerated to a near two-year high of 5.76% in May-16 driven by surging prices of food products such as pulses and sugar. (Source: Reuters) Financial)  Kuwait’s Banking Sector Deposits grew 5.6% YoY to reach KWD 2.2bn in March-16, according to the Kuwait Finance House. On MoM basis, deposits grew by 3.6% in March-16. (Source: Kuna)  Kuwait real estate sales dropped by 3% to reach KWD 226mn in May16 compared to KWD 233mn in April-16, according to the NBK report. The index for the number of real estate transactions stood at 475 deals since the start of the year, while the average value of a single deal plunged to KWD 477,000. (Source: Arab Times)  Kuwait Government has asked the public prosecutor to open an investigation into a scrapped deal with US firm Dow Chemical that resulted in a fine of USD 2.2bn in May-13, arbitrated by The International Chamber of Commerce. (Source: Business Times)  Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) has told French authorities it wants to sell its stake in nuclear group Areva. KIA is Areva's second-biggest shareholder with a 4.82% stake. (Source: Arabian Business) GCC NEWS  The Ministry of Finance signed a cooperation agreement with the UAE Central Bank. The agreement aims to enhance cooperation in areas of joint work, including monetary statistics, and government financial and banking information. (Source: Albawaba business)  UAE-based Meydan, a major developer of hospitality and entertainment facilities raised AED 700mn (USD 190.6mn) through an issue of Islamic bonds and AED 300 mn (USD 81.7mn) from a term financing facility. The money will help to strengthen company's capital structure, diversify its investor base and support new projects. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s hydrocarbon growth will be relatively elevated in 2016 compared to the next five years, as phase one and two of the USD 10.3bn Barzan gas projects are being finalized, according to BMI.  Sudan's Bank of Khartoum has agreed to buy Abu Dhabi-listed Etisalat Group's 92.3% shareholding in Sudanese fixed line operator Canar for AED 349.6mn (USD 95.2mn), Etisalat said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai’s non-oil foreign trade reached AED 319bn in Q1-16 compared to AED 331bn in Q1-15, according to the Dubai Media Office. Imports contributed AED 196bn whereas, exports and re-exports contributed AED 36bn and AED 87bn, respectively in Q1-16. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai International (DXB) Airport’s passenger traffic was up 7.2% YoY to 6,978,268 passenger in April-16, according to DXB Operator. The freight volume also increase by 4.8% YoY in April-16 to 213,790 tonnes from 204,075 tonnes. (Source: Arabian Business)   Only 34% of business establishments have their own website, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Transport and Communications report. An additional 5% have some other form of web presence, such as a Facebook or LinkedIn page. (Source: Doha News) Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry announced the launch of the Ukrainian Business Council to promote economic relations between Dubai and Ukraine. This is the 49th council operating under the Chamber’s umbrella. (Source: khaleej Times)   QNB announced that it has raised QAR 10bn (USD 2.75bn) in Additional Tier 1 Perpetual Capital Notes by way of private placement, the largest such issue ever conducted in the Middle East and Africa region. (Source: Zawya) Dubai developer, Limitless has awarded a construction contract worth more than AED 227.5mn (USD 61.8mn) to Eastern International LLC for the completion of two residential towers at The Galleries in Downtown Jebel Ali. (Source: Gulf News)   The trade between the Jebel Ali Free Zones (Jafza) and Japan grew 36% in the past five years to reach AED 2.7bn in 2015, Chairman of Ports, Customs and Free Zone Corporation said. Japan is a key trade partner to Jafza, the flagship free zone entity of Dubai. (Source: Gulf Today) KBR, an American engineering, procurement, and construction company, said that it has won an extension, valued over USD 185mn, to its program management consultant (PMC) contract for Qatar's Expressway Programme. The extension will see KBR continuing to deliver full programme management capability for the next three years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Development Bank has launched the SME Rating and Accreditation Programme, which will be an independent third party certification to assist entrepreneurs and SMEs to capitalize on contracting opportunities and improving their business processes.  Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in May-16 was 10.27mn bpd as compared to 10.26mn in April-16, according to OPEC. Whereas, crude supplied to the market in May-16 was higher than production at 10.45mn bpd. (Source: Gulf Times)  State-owned utility Saudi Electricity Co. (SEC) is seeking international investors to build two solar power plants at Al Jouf and Rafha in the north, with up to 50 megawatts of capacity developed at each site on land provided by SEC. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman Power and Water Procurement Company floated a tender (Source: Gulf Times)  91% are satisfied with their phone and internet services in Qatar, according to the Communications Regulatory Authority. 14% of business customers say there is insufficient competition in the market. (Source: Doha News) (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatari Modern Maintenance Co announced that it is one of the first electro-mechanical companies in Qatar to be certified with the prestigious ISO 9001:2015, ISO 14001:2015 & OHSAS 18001:2007 International Standards. This is the acknowledgment of its commitment to quality, health, safety and environment towards its customers and stakeholders at large. (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 14 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1322 USD/QAR 3.6403 106.2600 EUR/QAR 4.1215 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4300 JPY/QAR 0.0343 USD/CHF 0.9644 GBP/QAR 5.2056 USD/CAD 1.2837 CHF/QAR 3.7747 AUD/USD 0.7387 CAD/QAR 2.8358 NZD/USD 0.7061 AUD/QAR 2.6891 USD/INR 66.6400 INR/QAR 0.0546 USD/TRY 2.9199 TRY/QAR 1.2467 USD/ZAR 15.1710 ZAR/QAR 0.2400 USD/BRL 3.4826 BRL/QAR 1.0453 FX Commentary The USD was little changed against its peer currencies in a subdued trade on Monday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monthly policy meeting this week. The safe-haven yen firmed broadly closing at a six-week high versus the dollar on concerns that the Britain could vote to leave the European Union in a referendum two weeks from now. Britain's "Out" campaign widened its lead over the "In" camp ahead of the country's June 23 referendum, according to two opinion polls published by ICM. As investors ditched riskier assets, EUR dropped to its lowest against the yen since February 2013. Yen got further support from weak economic data out of China and Japan. Data from China showed that growth in fixed-asset investment fell below 10%, while Japan's business survey index of sentiment at large manufacturers fell to -11.1 in Q2-16. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.45 0.66 1.27 (0.40) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.02) LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1.24 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 1.34 1.53 1.76 2.00 SAIBOR NA NA 1.95 2.20 2.46 EIBOR 0.34 0.43 0.71 1.12 1.71 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.35 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.40% 5.0% 2.5% 2.32% 2.54% 2.54% 1.01% 1.31% 1.58% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.99% 2.42% 0.62% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 21.6 2.1 Turkey 256.9 (33.5) UK 35.4 17.7 Brazil 353.6 (117.5) Germany 18.2 5.5 Egypt 476.7 1.3 16.1 2.0% 0.0% 2.44% 2.16% 1.83% 0.97% 0.86% 2 Yrs 1.48% 1.27% 1.10% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 2.86% 1.95% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 38.6 13.0 Abu Dhabi 104.0 Italy 148.5 51.2 Bahrain 400.0 16.6 Greece 944.2 (197.6) Dubai 217.0 (27.3) Russia 255.0 (68.1) Qatar 119.0 32.1 Japan 38.0 (12.0) Saudi Arabia 187.0 44.5 Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 7:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Apr F -- 0.30% 7:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Apr F -- (3.50%) 7:30 Japan Capacity Utilization MoM Apr -- 3.20% 11:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY May F (0.30%) (0.30%) 11:30 UK CPI MoM May 0.30% 0.10% 11:30 UK CPI YoY May 0.40% 0.30% 11:30 UK CPI Core YoY May 1.30% 1.20% 11:30 UK RPI MoM May 0.30% 0.10% 11:30 UK RPI YoY May 1.50% 1.30% 11:30 UK PPI Output NSA MoM May 0.30% 0.40% 11:30 UK PPI Output NSA YoY May (0.50%) (0.70%) 15:30 US Import Price Index MoM May 0.70% 0.30% 15:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM May 0.30% 1.30% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Taiba Kuwaiti Holding Co Ksc Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 2.70 19.59 (30.27) 0.19 NM (83.18) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 14 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.3 0.0 8.6 1.7 6.1 5.2 3.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.5 6.5 2.1 5.5 3.7 5.3 4.3 4.6 5.0 0.0 8.9 4.4 4.7 5.1 7.3 2.7 5.1 5.6 3.8 3.7 2.6 7.3 3.8 4.6 4.2 5.1 2.6 2.8 6.8 2.9 6.9 2.8 2.0 8.1 4.0 3.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.6 2.1 5.4 5.9 5.1 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.8 2.2 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.8 3.9 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.2 2.5 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.9 3.1 0.7 3.0 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.5 9.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.2 12.1 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.0 11.7 10.1 26.0 10.6 18.4 24.6 15.2 10.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.2 7.1 12.7 13.1 13.3 14.1 8.3 19.5 14.7 22.6 10.6 11.1 14.5 18.5 9.0 16.6 4.8 12.5 11.2 27.6 27.5 13.1 9.5 22.8 11.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.6 18.0 12.8 9.0 11.4 12.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 23.4 70.7 20.0 32.8 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.0 36.3 20.5 35.0 61.0 16.4 33.8 16.8 12.0 95.2 61.5 138.1 10.9 95.0 207.5 32.5 150.5 11.6 11.2 61.5 86.0 13.1 37.7 97.8 90.0 18.4 201.1 47.9 41.0 86.0 24.0 19.5 73.4 49.7 59.0 32.1 17.9 13.5 18.5 86.1 10.6 58.7 23.1 85.2 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4