GCC Daily Market Update - 8 August

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 8 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,182.9 18,543.5 4,791.2 6,793.5 10,367.2 4,410.6 76,065.7 16,254.5 22,146.1 2,976.7 28,078.4 18.6 191.5 47.4 53.3 139.4 64.9 (60.0) (0.4) 313.9 (5.7) 364.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.5 (0.1) (0.0) 1.4 (0.2) 1.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.3 (0.7) 0.9 (1.9) 1.2 (0.1) 0.1 6.8 6.4 4.3 8.8 (3.5) (4.9) 6.0 (14.6) 1.1 (15.9) 7.5 10,789.4 6,289.5 4,546.2 3,511.2 5,491.5 5,874.5 1,157.1 1,513.2 2,972.2 108.4 43.1 19.6 38.9 32.3 4.7 0.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 (0.2) (0.6) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 (0.4) (0.0) 3.5 (9.0) 5.5 11.4 (2.2) 8.7 (4.8) 4.6 6.3 44.3 41.8 2.8 1,336.4 215.4 (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (22.4) (2.0) (0.1) (0.3) (2.2) (1.7) (0.9) 4.4 0.7 (4.8) (0.9) (2.2) 18.9 13.1 17.1 26.1 1.8 Global Global markets closed higher on Friday supported by buoyant US jobs report and stimulus measures announced by Bank of England (BoE). US markets closed sharply higher, as investors cheered strong US employment data which boosted expectations of an acceleration in economic growth and raised the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. Increased prospects of interest rate hike boosted the Financial sector, which led sectoral gains, closing 1.8% higher. European markets also registered strong gains bolstered by the higher than anticipated stimulus rolled out by Bank of England on Thursday. An upbeat US jobs report further boosted the optimism. The broader STOXX 600 closed 1.1% higher, with most major sectors in positive territory. Autos and Banks led gains, while, Health Care was the only sector to close in the red. Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan’s index largely unchanged. GCC GCC markets rose on the back of stronger international equities and rebound in oil prices. Dubai index led the regional gains on Sunday as Emaar Properties contributed most to the advance in index with its 0.9% gain. Saudi Arabia stocks rose 0.7% as all 14 petrochemical stocks advanced, tracking gains in oil prices in the Asian session. Abu Dhabi's index edged up 0.4% on heavy buying in small and midcap stocks. Qatar QE index rose 1.0% supported by blue-chips, with Vodafone Qatar advancing 2.4%. Petrochemical conglomerate Industries Qatar, which reported strong earnings late last week, jumped 3.9% further supporting the index. All sectors closed in green, with significant buying activity witnessed in Insurance (2%), Industrials (1.8%) and Telecoms (1.4%) sectors. Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers on the bourse. Out of the 44 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 33 advanced, 5 declined and 3 stayed unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.3 1.6 3.8 74.7 DSM 20 15.0 1.6 3.8 61.9 10,400 10 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.8 1.5 3.9 663.9 9,900 5 UAE (ADX) 12.2 1.5 5.4 21.7 UAE (DFM) 12.2 1.3 4.3 74.4 Kuwait (KSE) 19.0 1.0 4.3 15.2 Oman (MSM) 10.3 1.2 5.0 2.4 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.7 0.4 4.7 1.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Industries Qatar Doha Insurance Co QGRI Qatar Islamic Bank Vodafone Qatar Top Losers Dlala Holding Al Khaleej Takaful Grp QIMD Commercial Bank Qsc QOIS Close Price 110.0 22.0 47.3 112.7 11.7 4.1 0.8 1.3 2.7 0.3 3.9 3.8 2.8 2.5 2.4 (1.0) 4.8 1.8 5.6 (8.1) 25.5 24.0 44.9 39.4 11.1 (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (1.0) (0.9) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 37.6 (21.2) 12.7 (14.3) (9.4) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. (20.2) 386.9 16.7 (14.7) 11.8 10.2 (2.2) 10.7 4.7 2.2 164.1 12.6 (22.6) 1,340.5 NA 2.6 (37.0) (1.5) (29.4) (31.2) 64.5 3.3 3.7 92.6 35.8 NA 22.0 11.8 18.9 30.0 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 9,400 11/May 15 10,789.4 0 25/May 8/Jun 22/Jun Index Volume (mn) 6/Jul 20/Jul 3/Aug Index Value Closing Level 2,927.1 6,574.0 3,262.7 4,329.8 2,713.4 1,195.3 2,584.3 1D Change (%) 0.5 0.4 1.8 2.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 Buy (%) 32.5 31.3 63.8 10.5 25.7 36.2 Sell (%) 41.1 32.7 73.8 14.1 12.1 26.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 8 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  US trade deficit adjusted for inflation rose to USD 64.7bn in June-16 compared to USD 60.9bn in May-16, according to the US Commerce Department. The rising domestic demand and higher oil prices boosted the import bill while the lagging effects of a strong dollar continued to hamper export growth. (Source: Reuters)  China’s exports contracted 4.4% to USD 184.7bn in July-16 as compared to 4.8% contraction in June-16. Imports fell 12.5% to USD 132.4bn in July-16. Weak global demand has hampered efforts to shore up Chinese trade, while contraction in imports reflects possible weakness in the domestic economy. (Source: Seattle Times)  Japan’s leading index that signals the future economic activity remains unchanged at 98.4 in June-16, compared to May-16. The coincident index that reflects the current economic activity rose to 110.5 in June16 from 109.2 in May-16, while lagging index rose to 112.0 from 111.5 for the same period. (Source: Hellenics Shipping News)  Japan’s current account surplus grew 31.3% YoY to JPY 10.63tn (USD 104bn) in H1-16, with reduced imports due to lower crude oil prices and a rising number of foreign tourists pushing up travel surplus. The balance of goods trade marked a surplus of JPY 2.35tn, a turnaround from a deficit of JPY 375.4bn in H1-15. (Source: Nikkei Asian Review) the bank paid out for the same period 2015. (Source: Reuters)  Oman's economy is showing signs of slowing with consumer confidence weakening, government projects being cut, and market conditions staying bearish, according to a report by National Bank of Kuwait. The low oil prices will see Oman register substantial deficits in 2016 and 2017, increasing the urgency for fiscal consolidation. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s average price of some basic commodities rose by 13% QoQ in Q2-16, following the slump in world prices during Q1-16, according to the Public Authority for Stores and Food Reserve. The average price index rose 8% QoQ to 169 points in Q2-16. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman’s inflation rate edged up by 1.1% in May-16 as compared to the same period in 2015. However, the average growth in inflation for the first five months ending in May-16 was lower at 0.6%, compared with the same five-month period last year. (Source: Times of Oman)  The ferries in Oman saw an increase of 22% YoY in total number of passengers on board to 122,699 passengers until the end of July-16 from 100,591 passengers for the same period in 2015, as per National Ferries Company. The total number of vehicles shipped onboard in ferries rose 14% YoY for the same period. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain's Al Baraka Banking Group reported a 2.8% YoY dip in net profit to USD 43.6mn in Q2-16 compared to USD 44.8mn in Q2-15. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS   UAE-based retailer Fathima Group has announced AED 200mn (USD 54mn) investment plans to open seven hypermarkets across the Gulf region. The company opened its second hypermarket in Al Ain city as part of its wider growth plans in the GCC. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai based Turn8 has launched Turn8 Innovation Fund I LP, a USD 60mn venture capital fund for technology innovation. The move was made to bridge the major gap in the market for start-ups to grow from the accelerator stage into full-fledged businesses that attract venture capital. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based real estate developer Nakheel has released construction tenders for new hotels at Dragon City and Ibn Battuta Mall in Dubai. Nakheel will build a 295-room hotel at Dragon City and a 15-storey, 375-room hotel at Ibn Battuta Mall. The two three-star hotels are due for completion in 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Emirate of Sharjah has recorded a 7% increase in hotel revenue to AED 378mn in H1-16 as compared to the same period in 2015, according to the Sharjah Commerce and Tourism Development Authority. The maximum number of booking continue to come from china with an increase of 73% YoY in H1-16. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia’s consumer confidence score remains flat at 104 from Q1-16, according to the Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index. Job prospect sentiment improved two percentage points (50%), personal finance sentiment remains bright (64% favorable) while immediatespending intentions have reduced by four percentage points (45%).  Bahrain Telecommunications Company (Batelco) said, its board has recommended a cash dividend of BHD 0.01 (USD 0.03) per share for H1-16. The payout was unchanged compared to the same period in 2015. (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait based Mezzan Holding KSC has reported a 2.4% increase in revenue KWD 52.8mn for Q2-16 as compared to the same period in 2015, while its YTD revenue rose 3.9% to KWD 108.5mn as compared to the same period in 2015. (Source: The Peninsula) QATAR NEWS  The Qatar Exchange index was the best performing index in the GCC jumping by 7.3% MoM in July-16. The rise was due to trading which resumed after Eid holidays and robust growth in Qatar’s Real Estate market. The combined market capitalization of QE-listed companies increased 7.5% MoM to USD 131bn in July-16. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar’s Busbar market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% during 2016-21, driven by high per capita electricity consumption coupled with growing infrastructure development and booming industrial sector, according to TechSci Research. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar’s earthmoving equipment market is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 5% during 2016-21, driven by booming construction and mining industries as well as upcoming major sports events in Qatar, according to TechSci Research. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Airways has topped a global ranking of international airlines for providing travelers worldwide with the highest quality and service, ontime performance, and customer claim processing. The national airline achieved the number-one spot in a global study by independent airline consumer rights organisation — AirHelp. (Source: Gulf Times)  The recently announced Qatar’s fuel subsidy reform will help the country to shrink its budget deficit by reducing expenditures, a move that will help investments in private sector, according to Kuwait Financial Centre - Markaz. (Source: Gulf Times)  Quality Group International has signed a contract with Global Real Estate Company, Doha, to launch a new 160,000sq ft shopping mall in Al Wakrah. Construction of the project is expected to be completed by mid-2017. The mall will have a full-fledged supermarket and department store spread over two floors. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Arab News)  The Q2-16 earnings in Saudi Arabia's petrochemical industry has reaped the benefits of volatile oil prices. Combined net profits of the kingdom's 14 listed petrochemical firms fell by a fifth on an annual basis to SAR 6.8bn (USD 1.8bn) in the April-June period of 2016. (Source: Reuters)   Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) plans to raise its local purchases to SAR 1.19bn and the rate of local manufactured materials to 72%, as a part of SABIC’s 2025 strategy. The initiative aims to increase the local content and nationalize more than SAR 270bn to promote the added value of the local content. (Source: Mubasher) Saudi British Bank said its board had proposed a cash dividend of SAR 0.35 (USD 0.09) per share in H1-16, down from the SAR 0.40 per share 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 8 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1116 USD/QAR 3.6416 101.8200 EUR/QAR 4.0480 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3103 JPY/QAR 0.0358 USD/CHF 0.9807 GBP/QAR 4.7716 USD/CAD 1.3172 CHF/QAR 3.7133 AUD/USD 0.7619 CAD/QAR 2.7647 NZD/USD 0.7144 AUD/QAR 2.7745 USD/INR 66.2762 INR/QAR 0.0549 USD/TRY 2.9987 TRY/QAR 1.2144 USD/ZAR 13.7270 ZAR/QAR 0.2653 USD/BRL 3.1655 BRL/QAR 1.1504 FX Commentary The USD rallied across the board on Friday after data showed US employment increased more than expected in July and wages picked up, raising the probability of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year. US non-farm payrolls increased by 255,000 jobs last month, after an upwardly revised 292,000 surge in June. The dollar index rose 0.5% to 96.212 on Friday after a dismal week over disappointing Q2-16 GDP data. CAD slumped against its US counterpart as a slump in domestic jobs and a record-wide Canadian trade deficit contrasted with a robust US jobs report. JPY and CHF lost against the greenback following reduced demand for safe haven amidst a risk-on mode. EUR also closed lower against the USD, majorly due to strength in the greenback, while GBP continued its downward trajectory as stimulus by BoE continued to weigh on currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.44 0.50 0.79 1.48 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.05) 1.00 1.12 1.28 1.53 1.89 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.03 2.24 2.50 EIBOR 0.34 0.43 0.71 1.17 1.74 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.07% 5.0% 1.87% 2.5% 2.29% 2.29% 1.27% 1.54% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.82% 1.00% 0.56% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.30% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 19.1 (3.0) Turkey 260.4 (28.9) UK 34.3 5.8 Brazil 273.2 (194.9) Germany 16.8 1.9 Egypt 449.7 (42.1) France 32.4 2.3 Abu Dhabi 81.0 (53.1) Italy 125.0 (5.3) Bahrain 377.6 (7.0) Greece 975.2 (382.5) Dubai 169.3 (98.2) Russia 218.5 (121.2) Qatar 110.0 (25.3) Japan 34.1 (12.9) Saudi Arabia 183.5 (3.8) 1.99% 1.71% 2.0% 2.25% 0.99% 1.0% 0.97% 1.48% 1.31% 1.18% 2.64% 1.85% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 9:00 Germany Industrial Production SA MoM Jun 0.70% (1.30%) 9:00 Germany Industrial Production WDA YoY Jun 0.50% (0.40%) 15:30 Canada Building Permits MoM Jun 1.50% (1.90%) 2:50 Japan Money Stock M2 YoY Jul 3.30% 3.40% 2:50 Japan Money Stock M3 YoY Jul 2.90% 2.90% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Makkah Construction & Devepl Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 102.82 129.46 5.27 80.91 106.56 9.85 3,150.60 (3.42) 2.31 297.67 (1.97) 22.65 90.88 (22.65) 19.79 119.63 (0.17) 116.49 615.87 (14.63) (20.12) 200.90 (29.85) (42.89) 91.99 (0.08) 1.17 13.08 (1.68) 36.34 756.56 (5.92) 2.83 54.96 (30.60) (4.91) Human Soft Holding Co Ksc NA NA NA 5.04 170.73 (18.73) Albaraka Banking Group NA NA NA 43.59 (2.81) 15.31 Commercial Real Estate Co NA NA NA 2.00 (30.11) (40.52) Qatar Fuel Qsc Bupa Arabia For Cooperative Qatar Navigation Bahrain Telecom Co Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 8 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 4th August 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 7.6 0.0 8.0 1.6 5.9 4.7 2.8 0.0 3.9 6.3 1.9 5.4 3.3 5.2 4.1 4.6 5.0 0.0 8.5 4.2 4.4 4.9 7.2 2.8 4.7 5.7 3.7 3.3 2.5 6.7 3.8 4.3 4.1 4.7 2.4 3.0 6.5 2.8 6.2 2.5 1.9 7.6 3.7 3.2 1.8 2.9 2.1 5.1 5.7 5.0 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.8 1.1 2.7 1.0 2.4 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.5 1.6 2.1 1.4 0.8 4.0 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8 3.5 2.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.0 2.4 0.7 3.1 1.6 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.0 14.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.6 359.4 9.5 13.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 49.9 12.3 12.3 10.9 30.1 11.5 18.5 26.3 13.4 11.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.6 14.8 7.5 13.0 13.1 18.6 16.1 8.2 20.3 16.1 22.3 11.8 10.9 15.9 22.1 9.8 17.7 4.5 13.0 11.8 17.1 30.2 13.6 15.1 23.9 11.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.9 17.0 13.6 10.1 12.3 14.0 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.8 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 2.2 4.4 10.2 4.7 5.2 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.4 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.4 62.4 20.9 73.5 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 41.5 12.2 21.0 53.8 50.5 10.8 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.1 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 20.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 40.3 39.4 25.7 37.4 65.3 17.0 37.0 17.8 11.9 110.0 64.0 155.0 11.2 95.4 221.0 32.4 152.7 12.2 11.8 64.1 90.2 13.2 35.7 105.9 88.0 19.1 227.0 51.0 45.0 87.0 24.2 21.2 78.5 46.0 61.5 0.0 35.6 19.7 14.1 19.8 94.6 11.4 57.8 24.4 88.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4