GCC Daily Market Update - 4 August
GCC Daily Market Update - 4 August
Ard, Islam, Mal, Takaful
Ard, Islam, Mal, Takaful
Organisation Tags (15)
Ahli United Bank
Emirates Islamic Bank
Gulf International
Federal Customs Authority
Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Qatar Islamic Bank
Bank Islam Malaysia
Saudi Investment Bank
Doha Bank
Ahli Bank
Thomson Reuters
Bloomberg
Emirates NBD Bank
Barwa
Qatar National Bank
Transcription
- DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 4 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,163.8 6.8 18,355.0 41.2 4,734.3 15.1 6,634.4 (11.0) 10,170.2 25.9 4,321.1 (6.9) 74,552.2 (1,251.8) 16,083.1 (308.3) 21,739.1 (390.0) 2,978.5 7.2 27,697.5 (284.2) 0.3 0.2 0.3 (0.2) 0.3 (0.2) (1.7) (1.9) (1.8) 0.2 (1.0) (0.5) (0.4) 0.1 (1.3) (1.6) (2.7) (1.1) (2.9) (0.7) (0.0) (1.3) 5.9 5.3 3.1 6.3 (5.3) (6.8) 3.9 (15.5) (0.8) (15.8) 6.0 10,545.0 6,237.6 4,509.6 3,431.9 5,470.8 5,848.2 1,155.9 1,509.0 2,951.8 (105.9) (30.6) 2.3 (37.6) 7.7 (8.1) (5.9) (13.6) (7.8) (1.0) (0.5) 0.1 (1.1) 0.1 (0.1) (0.5) (0.9) (0.3) (0.6) (1.0) (1.4) (1.5) 0.4 0.1 0.0 (0.6) (0.7) 1.1 (9.8) 4.7 8.9 (2.6) 8.2 (4.9) 3.9 5.4 43.1 40.8 2.8 1,356.1 219.9 1.3 1.3 0.1 (8.3) (1.1) 3.1 3.3 3.9 (0.6) (0.5) 2.0 (1.1) (1.3) 0.5 (1.4) 16.2 11.1 21.5 27.9 2.6 Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets closed on a mixed note on Wednesday. US indices ended in green buoyed by a rally in Energy and Financial shares. Energy stocks benefits from a 3.3% gain in WTI prices, while better-than-anticipated data on the labor market helped financial stocks. In Europe, the broad based Stoxx 600 eked out marginal gains, closing 0.03% in green. The index was buoyed by Banking stocks, which rallied 1.8% after having a torrid start of week post stress test results. UK’s index closed lower after Markit/CIPS PMI painted a dismal picture of economy post Brexit. Most Asian markets closed in red, with the Nikkei down 1.9% on the back of another spike in JPY amid disappointment with the country's latest stimulus plan. China stocks edged up, aided by a second day of gains for property shares and growing expectations of state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms. GCC Most major gulf bourses ended in red on Wednesday. Riyadh's index fell 0.5% with sell-off witnessed in Real Estate, Transport and Multi Investment sectors. The seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI for July-16 came in at an eight-month high of 56.0, supporting the index to some extent. Dubai’s index dropped 1.1% lower, due to weakness in global equities. The index is sensitive to global markets as it attracts a lot of foreign investors. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark added 0.1% buoyed by Aldar properties, which gained 1.1% on higher than expected results. Qatar QE index closed 1.0% lower weighed by decline in blue chips. Blue chip Gulf International Services fell 4.2% after reporting a 67.2% YoY drop in Q2-16 net profit. All sectors ended in red with major losers being Insurance (1.4%), Industrials (-1.4%) and Telecoms (-1.2%). Domestic institutions turned bearish and there was increased net selling by Gulf retail and institutional investors in the market. Out of the 44 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 24 declined, 11 advanced and 4 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.9 1.6 3.9 45.2 10,400 DSM 20 14.6 1.6 3.9 39.5 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.7 1.4 3.9 926.3 9,400 UAE (ADX) 12.1 1.5 5.4 24.5 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.9 1.3 4.4 53.9 Kuwait (KSE) 19.1 1.0 4.3 32.4 8,400 8/May Oman (MSM) 10.2 1.2 5.0 4.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.6 0.4 4.7 0.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers QIMD Doha Insurance Co Dlala Holding Al Meera Qatar Islamic Bank Top Losers Gulf Intl Services Commercial Bank Qsc QEWS Doha Bank Qsc Qatar Insurance Co Close Price 44.0 21.2 25.6 220.1 109.8 1.0 0.2 0.2 1.4 0.4 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 10.4 1.0 38.2 0.0 2.9 (4.3) (17.8) 3.2 (19.1) 0.4 35.2 38.3 221.9 36.8 77.5 (1.6) (1.2) (5.1) (0.8) (1.5) (4.2) (2.9) (2.2) (2.0) (1.9) (31.7) (16.6) 2.5 (17.4) 11.5 (50.4) (30.2) 2.0 (31.3) (13.7) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 5.4 11.5 0.0 9.8 39.5 NA 6.0 26.7 36.2 12.3 859.6 203.4 11.2 152.3 58.9 18.4 18.4 15.7 8.2 15.7 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 15.0 10,545.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 22/May 5/Jun 19/Jun Index Volume (mn) 3/Jul 17/Jul 31/Jul Index Value Closing Level 2,877.9 6,531.5 3,146.8 4,203.9 2,676.8 1,174.9 2,549.2 1D Change (%) (0.7) (0.1) (1.4) (1.4) (0.7) (1.2) (0.5) Buy (%) 32.7 20.5 53.2 14.9 31.9 46.8 Sell (%) 32.1 21.2 53.3 18.9 27.8 46.7 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
- DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 4 , 2016 support to the Indian workers who lost their jobs in Saudi Arabia. GLOBAL NEWS US private sector added 179,000 jobs in July-16 compared to 176,000 increase in June-16, according to the US Labor Department. Business services accounted for 59,000 new jobs in July-16, while financial services opened 11,000 new jobs during the same month. (Source: Retail (Source: Arabian Business) UAE based healthcare firm AVIVO Group aims to list in London in March-17 and raise around USD 500mn from the offering, its Chairman said. (Source: Arabian Business) Fitch Ratings affirmed Emirates Islamic Bank’s long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of ‘A+’ with a stable outlook, short-term IDR of 'F1', and a viability rating at 'bb-'. The rating agency also affirmed the bank’s support rating of '1'. (Source: English Mubasher) Moody's has affirmed Emirates NBD's credit rating at A3, with a stable outlook. Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in eight months in July-16. The headline Emirates NBD PMI rose to 56.0 in July-16 from 54.4 in the previous month. (Source: RTT) Saudi Arabia is lending USD 80mn to Cuba for the import of infrastructure equipment, through its Fund for Development’s export programme. The loan is split between a five-year revolving USD 50mn facility meant to help Cuba import Saudi products, and a USD 29mn loan to finance the restoration of the water supply systems and sanitation in the city of Cardenas. (Source: Arabian Business) Saudi Arabia must employ 4.1mn Saudi nationals in the private sector by 2030 if it is to achieve its aims of nationalising the workforce and diversifying the economy, according to the Oxford Consulting Group. Crowd) UK services sector fell into a contraction territory with PMI of 47.4 in July-16 from 52.3 in June-16, following the country’s decision to exit the European Union. There was a steep fall in output, new business inquiries and sentiment among firms in UK. (Source: WSJ) Turkey’s CPI rose to 8.79% YoY in July-16 compared to 7.64% YoY in June-16, due to a surge in food prices. The food prices rose to an annual 9.69% in Jun-16 compared to 6.63% in the previous month. (Source: Bloomberg) GCC NEWS The value of the GCC’s industrial investments in the UAE reached AED 4.3bn in 2015, with AED 1.8bn (42%) of the investments concentrated in the non-metallic mining industry, according to Ministry of Finance. Around AED 690mn worth of GCC investments in the UAE went to metal products, and AED 410mn were in the food and beverage industry. (Source: Trade Arabia) Economic sentiment in the UAE ticked up slightly last month, as businesses reported an increase in new orders and output, according to the Emirates NBD. The UAE PMI rose to 55.3 in July-16 as compared to 53.4 in June-16. The index average for the past seven months stands at 53.7, down from an average of 56.8 during the same period a year ago. (Source: The National) The UAE's share in Saudi Arabia’s import market increased from 4% in 2012 to 5% in 2015, according to the UAE Federal Customs Authority. The spectrum of imported products expanded to 586 types, or 52% of the 1,123 types of products KSA imported from UAE in 2015 from 401 types of products, 38% of all types of imported products in 2012. (Source: Arabian Business) Saudi Arabia's government is discussing a proposal to take over construction conglomerate Saudi Oger, which has been hit hard by a slowdown in the Saudi construction sector due to low oil prices and state spending cuts. Wage payments to thousands of its workers have been delayed for months. (Source: Arabian Business) Bahrain based Ahli United Bank posted an increase of 11.7% in net profit to USD 146.6mn in Q2-16, compared with USD 131.2mn in the corresponding period of 2015. Net interest income rose to USD 206.2mn in Q2-16 from USD 200.9mn in the same period on 2015, while fees and commissions also rose to USD 59.8mn, compared to USD 45.7mn. (Source: Arabian Business) Kuwait National Cinema revenue dropped 9.5% KWD 2.4mn (USD 7.9mn) in Q2-16 as compared to KWD 2.6mn (USD 8.7mn in Q2-15. During the first half, net profits declined 17.5% to KWD 4.9mn from KWD 6.0mn for the same period a year ago. (Source: English Mubasher Kuwait United Poultry posted a 75.4% drop in profits to KWD 188,040 (USD 622,710) in Q2-16 as compared to KWD 764,860 (USD 2.5mn) in the same period of 2015. (Source: English Mubasher) (Source: English Mubasher) Assets of national banks in the UAE rose by 1.9% to AED 2.129tn during H1-16. Foreign banks’ assets decreased by 0.1% to reach AED 3,889bn in H1-16. (Source: English Mubasher) The Dubai Islamic Economy Development Centre and Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry, announced the organization of the third Global Islamic Economy Summit to be held at Madinat Jumeirah on 11th and 12th October-16 with Thomson Reuters as Strategic Partner. (Source: Arabian Business) UAE based Majid Al Futtaim reported an 11% increase in revenues to AED 15.2bn (USD 4.1bn) for H1-16 as compared to AED 13.7bn (USD 3.7bn) in H1-15. EBITDA rose by 7% to AED 1.9bn in H1-16 from AED 1.8bn for the same period last year. Occupancy across all shopping malls operated by the company in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia remained strong at 98% during the period. (Source: Arabian Business) UAE’s Al Buhaira National Insurance Co. (ABNIC) recorded a 9% YoY increase in net profit in to AED 12.7mn (USD 3.5mn) in Q2-16. For H116, the company’s net profit was up 17.3% to AED 32mn, compared to AED 27.3mn in the period last year. (Source: English Mubasher) Finance House's net profit for Q2-16 declined by 85% to AED 6.1mn (USD 1.7mn) from AED 40.7mn (USD 11.1mn) in Q2-15. For H1-16, net profit dropped by 52% YoY to AED 31.7mn from AED 66.2mn. (Source: QATAR NEWS (Source: Gulf Times) Qatar Fuel Company (WOQOD) reported a net profit of QAR 540.37mn for the six months period ended 30th June-16 compared to QAR 540.95mn for the same period in 2015. The EPS amounted to QAR 5.92 for the same period compared to QAR 5.93 a year ago. (Source: QSE) QATAR NAVIGATION (Milaha) reported a net profit of QAR 553mn in H1-16 compared to QAR 651mn in H1-15. The revenue for five out of the six segments fell in H1-16. The EPS amounted to QAR 4.86 in H116 compared to QAR 5.73 for the same period in 2015. (Source: QSE) Industries Qatar Company reported 82% QoQ rise in net profit to QAR 1.3bn in Q2-16, driven by the improved sales volumes, better polyethylene prices and reduced operating costs. However net profit for H1-16 fell 19% YoY, largely driven by lower revenues resulting from the price deflation across all operating segments. (Source: Gulf Times) English Mubasher) UAE based Australia Post has bought a 4.5% stake for USD 100mn in Dubai-based logistics firm Aramex. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai based RP Group of Companies Chairman and Managing Director said that he will employ 3,000 of his countrymen. The company will recruit the workers who are skilled in mechanical trade, as a mark of Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by consumer countries in the Middle East & North African region amounted to 10.5bn m3 in 2015, of which 40% was provided by Qatar, according to a report by Apicorp. 2
- DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 4 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1179 USD/QAR 3.6417 101.2400 EUR/QAR 4.0711 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3355 JPY/QAR 0.0360 USD/CHF 0.9732 GBP/QAR 4.8635 USD/CAD 1.3067 CHF/QAR 3.7420 AUD/USD 0.7588 CAD/QAR 2.7869 NZD/USD 0.7159 AUD/QAR 2.7633 USD/INR 66.4925 INR/QAR 0.0548 USD/TRY 3.0132 TRY/QAR 1.2086 USD/ZAR 13.9090 ZAR/QAR 0.2618 USD/BRL 3.2385 BRL/QAR 1.1245 FX Commentary USD gained on Wednesday, after hitting six-week lows on Tuesday after data released by payrolls processor ADP showed that US private sector added 179,000 jobs in July, suggesting continuous improvement in labor markets. The gains were however limited as investors remained cautious ahead of Friday's release of the government's July jobs report which will provide a broader picture of the labor market. GBP closed lower against the greenback as investors anticipate an interest rate cut in the upcoming Bank of England monetary policy meet. Against the yen, USD rebounded from three-week lows after Japan's top currency diplomat, Mastsugu Asakawa, stepped up his jawboning against a rising yen on Wednesday, warning speculators against pushing up the currency too rapidly. CAD closed higher supported by a 3.1% gain in oil prices. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.44 0.49 0.77 1.44 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.05) 1.00 1.12 1.29 1.53 1.90 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.03 2.24 2.50 EIBOR 0.32 0.43 0.73 1.16 1.73 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.93 1.30 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.11% 5.0% 1.89% 2.5% 2.32% 2.32% 1.21% 1.50% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.76% 0.56% 0.0% 0.93% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.29% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 18.3 (3.8) Turkey 272.3 (14.5) UK 35.1 7.2 Brazil 286.1 (182.1) Germany 16.9 2.3 Egypt 449.7 (41.9) France 32.4 3.2 Abu Dhabi 88.0 (46.0) Italy 133.3 6.4 Bahrain 390.8 8.4 Greece 974.6 (348.1) Dubai 175.0 (84.5) Russia 238.0 (92.9) Qatar 108.0 (27.3) Japan 35.1 (12.0) Saudi Arabia 186.7 (0.6) 1.78% 2.0% 2.36% 2.08% 0.97% 1.0% 0.93% 2.75% 1.84% 1.44% 1.26% 1.11% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 14:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Period Survey Prior Aug-04th 0.25% 0.50% 15:30 US 16:00 Russia Initial Jobless Claims Jul-30th 265k 266k Gold and Forex Reserve Jul-29th -- 392.2b 17:00 US Durable Goods Orders 15:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jun F -4.00% (4.00%) Jul 180k 287k Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Industries Qatar QoQ (%) 1,283.87 (18.54) 11.93 1,268.25 (13.88) 81.95 Al Buhaira National Insuranc NA NA NA 12.74 19.26 (33.94) Kuwait National Cinema Co NA NA NA 2.38 (9.68) (7.17) Ahli United Bank B.S.C 411.74 16.90 5.54 146.59 11.74 (5.18) Finance House NA NA NA 7.15 (82.90) (71.44) Kuwait United Poultry Co NA NA NA 0.19 (75.41) (68.23) Aqar Real Estate Investments NA NA NA 0.28 (25.59) (1.24) Takaful International Co NA NA NA 0.09 1,717.34 (18.49) Kuwait Reinsurance Co Ksc NA NA NA 0.13 (73.62) (85.87) Source: Bloomberg 3
- DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 4 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 28th July 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 7.9 0.0 8.1 1.6 5.9 4.9 2.8 0.0 3.9 6.3 1.9 5.4 3.4 5.1 4.1 4.6 5.0 0.0 8.5 4.2 4.4 4.9 7.1 2.7 4.7 5.6 3.7 3.3 2.5 6.9 3.7 4.3 4.1 4.7 2.4 2.9 6.6 2.7 6.3 2.5 1.9 7.6 3.7 3.2 1.9 2.9 2.1 5.1 5.6 4.9 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.9 2.7 1.1 2.7 1.0 2.3 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.5 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.8 4.0 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 3.4 2.6 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.1 1.0 2.5 0.7 3.0 1.7 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.6 13.7 (M) ()س 7.5 368.2 9.5 12.7 (M) ()س 51.0 12.2 12.2 10.8 29.9 11.4 19.0 26.0 15.1 11.1 (M) ()س 11.6 14.8 7.5 13.1 13.2 13.0 15.4 8.2 20.3 15.9 22.4 11.4 11.4 15.4 18.9 9.8 18.4 4.7 12.9 12.1 16.9 30.3 13.8 15.1 23.9 11.8 (M) ()س 18.9 17.3 13.7 9.4 12.0 13.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) ()س 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) ()س 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) ()س 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) ()س 1.8 3.4 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.4 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.2 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 65.7 19.5 30.3 46.3 23.6 21.5 21.0 32.4 70.7 20.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 12.8 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 114.2 31.0 27.0 Stock Price (QR) 42.4 37.9 24.9 37.2 66.9 17.0 36.0 18.0 12.2 109.0 63.4 153.0 11.1 97.8 219.0 32.4 153.5 12.3 11.8 64.0 90.0 13.4 36.8 106.8 88.8 19.1 224.8 51.1 43.5 88.9 24.5 21.1 81.3 47.9 60.8 0.0 35.1 19.8 14.2 19.7 95.2 11.1 58.7 24.5 89.2 Company االهلي التجاري داللة بنك الدوحة اإلسالمية القابضة الخليجي الريان االجارة األو لQFC المصرف الدولي الوطني قطر بنك قطروعمان البنوك والخدمات المالية الرعاية الميرة السينما قطر للوقود الطبية السالم ودام زاد البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية أعمال الخليج الدولية صناعات قطر مجمع المناعي مسيعيد كهرباء وماء المستثمرين التحويلية االسمنت الصناعات الخليج الدوحة قطر العامة االسالمية التأمين بروة إزدان القابضة مزايا قطر المتحدة للتنمية العقارات كيوتل فودافون قطر االتصاالت مخازن ناقالت المالحة النقل Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4
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