GCC Daily Market Update - 13 November

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP November 13 , 2016 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS MBA Mortgage Applications Nov-04th -- (1.20%) (1.20%) Japan Machine Orders MoM Sep (1.50%) (3.30%) (2.20%) France Industrial Production MoM Sep (0.30%) (1.10%) 2.30% France Industrial Production YoY Sep 0.40% (1.10%) 0.40% Italy Industrial Production MoM Sep (1.00%) (0.80%) 1.80% Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Nov-04th -- 395.7b 391.0b US Initial Jobless Claims Nov-05th Japan PPI YoY Oct US Univ. of Mich. Sentiment Nov P ¥2020.0b ¥1821.0b ¥2000.8b 260k 254k 265k (2.60%) (2.70%) (3.20%) 87.9 91.6 87.2 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS  S&P affirmed US investment-grade 'AA+/A-1+' rating after the Republican candidate- Donald Trump won the Presidential election, while maintaining its stable outlook. (Source: Reuters) 2.09 07-Nov US Sep 31-Oct BoP Current Acc Balance 24-Oct Japan 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 17-Oct (0.40%) 10-Oct (0.40%) Industrial Production MoM Sep 03-Oct 0.00% UK UST 10yr Bond 26-Sep Prior 19-Sep 3.00% 12-Sep Actual (1.80%) 05-Sep Survey (0.50%) 29-Aug Period 22-Aug Event Germany Industrial Production MoM Sep 15-Aug Region Source: Bloomberg  Oman’s merchandise exports fell by 28.4% YoY while imports fell 23.4% YoY during Jan-May 2016. Oil and gas exports fell 37.5% YoY while non-oil exports fell 24.9% for the period. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman's Telecom Authority has begun the process to award a third license for the installation, operation, maintenance and exploitation of a telecom system for public mobile services. (Source: Times of Oman)  US wholesale inventories rose 0.1% MoM in Sep-16, slightly less from estimated rise 0.2% MoM. (Source: Reuters)   US consumers’ credit balances rose 6.3% YoY (USD 19.3bn) in September-16, driven by 6.7% YoY increase in non-revolving credit, largely student and auto loans. (Source: WSJ) Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) announced that the issue of the 7.5 years of government development bonds has been subscribed by 100% with an expected interest rate of 5.875%. (Source: BNA)   Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.2% MoM in Sep-16 mainly caused by a drop in sales of non-food products. (Source: Reuters) Gross premiums/contributions generated by Bahrain’s domestic insurance sector amounted to BHD 272.09mn in 2015 compared to BHD 273.95 million in 2014, according to CBB. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China’s trade surplus stood at USD 49.06bn in Oct-16 versus forecasts of USD 51.70bn. Exports fell 7.3% YoY while imports shrank 1.4% YoY for the period. (Source: Reuters)  Total assets of Kuwaiti banks increased 6.3% YoY and 1.8% MoM to KWD60.6 bn in Sep‐16. Private sector credit increased 6.7% YoY and 0.8% MoM to KWD36.6 bn. (Source: Central Bank of Kuwait)  German trade surplus rose by 9.4% YoY to EUR 24.4bn in 9M-16 as exports rose 0.8% while imports fell 0.2%. (Source: Economic Calendar)  Kuwait's central bank reported 2.6% YoY increase in M2 money and 2.3% increase in M1 supply in Sep-16. (Source: Reuters)  Japan reported a current account surplus of JPY 10.36tn from Apr-16 to Sep-16, up 20.5% YoY mainly due to a drop in imports amid lower oil prices and stronger yen. (Source: Global Times)  China's foreign exchange reserves fell by USD 45.7bn to USD 3.12tn in Oct-16, mainly due to a sell-off by the Central Bank to cushion CNY, which was impacted by strength in USD. (Source: Reuters)  China consumer price inflation grew 2.1% YoY in Oct-16 majorly driven by 3.7% YoY rise in food prices. (Source: Fortune) QATAR NEWS  Qatar and Argentina signed an agreement on reciprocal encouragement and protection of investments. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar could serve as Portugal’s manufacturing hub in the Middle East, as the country’s facilities and infrastructure are ripe for foreign industries, according to a Qatar Chamber member. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is set to ratify the data privacy law which would levy penalties of up to QAR 5mn on companies, if they fail to protect the personal information gathered from customers (Source: Arabian Business) GCC NEWS  Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index came in at 53.2 points in Oct-16 from 55.1 points in Sept-16. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar will raise salaries of government employees next year despite low oil and gas prices. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE food sales are projected to grow by an annual average of 7.3% between 2015 and 2020 as high income levels and rising affluence spur growth, according to a report by BMI (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar has set its retroactive official selling price (OSP) for its Marine crude at USD 48.40 per barrel for Oct-16, up USD 5.95 per barrel from Set-16 prices. (Source: Business Recorder)  UAE has launched a development plan worth AED 1.3bn for Hatta in Dubai which will boost the area’s social and economic attractiveness as a world class environmental tourist destination. (Source: Trade Arabia)  QDB and Qatar Shell have shortlisted 26 Qatari SMEs to tender for six business opportunities in its gas-to-liquids plant. (Source: Gulf Times)   Office and luxury residential rentals in Abu Dhabi continued to slide in Q3-16 as businesses are considering actions to streamline operations, according to a report by CBRE.(Source: Trade Arabia) Fiscal pressures on Qatar are expected to ease from 2017, as modest gains in hydrocarbon prices result in a recovery in revenues and as the government’s diversification efforts start to pay off, according to a report by BMI Research. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi Arabia has informed Egypt that shipments of oil products expected under a USD 23.0bn aid deal would be halted indefinitely.  Combined value of Qatar’s weekly real estate transactions witnessed a decline during the week ended 3rd November-16 despite a doubledigit increase in the number of transactions. The total number of deals implemented during the week rose 9.6% to 92 compared to 71 deals in previous week. (Source: The Peninsula) (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia's government will clear all its debts to private companies by Dec-16, according the Council of Economic and Development Affairs. (Source: Trade Arabia) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP November 13 , 2016 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,164.5 3.8 1.8 5.9 MSCI EM 849.1 (3.5) (6.2) 6.9 18,847.7 5.4 3.9 8.2 S&P GCC 1,484.4 0.3 (0.8) 2.6 Nasdaq 4,752.0 2.0 (1.0) 3.5 Dow Jones Islamic 2,869.2 1.1 (0.7) 2.5 FTSE 100 6,730.4 0.6 (3.2) 7.8 KSA (TASI) 6,528.1 7.7 8.6 (5.6) DAX 30 10,668.0 4.0 0.0 (0.7) UAE (DFM) 3,274.1 (0.7) (1.8) 3.9 CAC 40 4,489.3 2.6 (0.4) (3.2) UAE (ADX) 4,282.5 0.0 (0.4) (0.6) BIST 100 75,174.2 1.2 (4.3) 4.8 Qatar (DSM) 9,961.0 0.0 (2.1) (4.5) Nikkei S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 17,374.8 2.8 (0.3) (8.7) Kuwait (KSE) 5,480.4 1.3 1.5 (2.4) Sh. Comp 3,196.0 2.3 3.1 (9.7) Bahrain (BAX) 1,160.9 1.4 1.1 (4.5) Hang Seng 22,531.1 (0.5) (1.8) 2.8 Oman (MSM) 5,417.7 (0.8) (1.2) 0.2 Sensex 26,818.8 (1.7) (4.0) 2.7 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,138.5 1.2 1.5 0.1 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 5.4 DJIA DAX 30 S&P 500 Nikkei CAC 40 Sh. Comp Nasdaq BIST 100 Jordan (ASEGI) FTSE 100 Hang Seng Sensex MSCI EM (3.5) DJIA FTSE 100 MSCI EM S&P 500 BIST 100 Nasdaq Hang Seng Sensex Jordan (ASEGI) DAX 30 CAC 40 Nikkei Sh. Comp 4.0 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.2 0.6 (0.5) (1.7) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 8.2 7.8 6.9 5.9 4.8 3.5 2.8 2.7 0.1 (0.7) (3.2) (8.7) (9.7) (15.0) 6.0 Source: Bloomberg (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) KSA (TASI) UAE (DFM) 7.7 Bahrain (BAX) Kuwait (KSE) Dow Jones Islamic S&P GCC 1.3 Dow Jones Islamic S&P GCC UAE (ADX) Oman (MSM) (0.8) (2.0) 0.0 (0.6) Kuwait (KSE) 0.0 (0.7) 2.5 0.2 UAE (ADX) 0.3 0.0 UAE (DFM) 2.6 Oman (MSM) 1.1 Qatar (DSM) 3.9 1.4 Qatar (DSM) (4.5) Bahrain (BAX) (4.5) KSA (TASI) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 (5.6) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg (2.4) 2.0 4.0 6.0 Global Most major global indices closed the week higher. US indices started on a strong footing, supported by increased prospects of Clinton winning elections. An unexpected win by Trump, however further supported the markets after he struck an inclusive tone in his winning speech and stressed on aggressive fiscal stimulus. Banks and financials surged along with all deep cyclical groups leveraged to infrastructure outlays, while Healthcare stocks staged a relief rally. A fall in initial jobless claims and positive consumer sentiment numbers further boosted optimism. European markets, followed their US peers higher, with Basic Resources gaining 4.5% in anticipation that Trump’s policies would be supportive of shale exploration. Defense stocks gained as investors interpreted Trump’s repudiation of UN and NATO as a sign that countries may have to boost outlays for armaments. In Asia, Japan reacted negatively to Trumps win, however staged a strong rally to close the week positively on back of weak JPY. China’s benchmark closed higher despite disappointing export numbers and a large fall in foreign reserves. GCC Saudi stocks led its peer GCC indices, rallying 7.7% this week supported by easing liquidity concerns in banking system as evident from the 10th consecutive fall in interbank rates. The news of government clearing its dues to private companies further supported the rally. In UAE, Dubai’s index continued its negative performance, pressured by declines in the Transport, Banking and Real Estate sectors. Qatar QE index closed largely unchanged as sustained buying by foreign institutions offset bearish bets by domestic institutions and individuals. Strong buying activity was witnessed in Industrials and Telecom sector, while Banks and Financials led peer indices in terms of volumes, which were on a rise during the week with increased uncertainty over Trumps win in the US. Out of 44 stocks traded, 23 advanced, 17 fell and 4 remained unchanged Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX Indicator Price Last Close 9,961.0 MAVG 50 10,429.6 10,000 MAVG 100 10,459.7 9,000 MAVG 200 10,199.8 8,000 May-16 6 Month High 11,408.8 6 Month Low 9,532.6 RSI (14 Days) 52.6 12,000 11,000 9,961.0 Jun-16 Index Aug-16 50 SMA 100 SMA Sep-16 200 SMA Nov-16 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP November 13 , 2016 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 5.00 3.05 3.00 2.50 4.31 1.96 2.15 1.92 0.84 3.63 3.27 2.94 3.00 1.50 0.50 2.94 1.65 2.00 1.00 4.00 2.27 2.03 4.58 2.66 2.00 2.21 1.56 1.00 0.92 1.57 0.98 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current Last Year 7 Yrs 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Global US 5 Yrs Current Source: Bloomberg 5 Years CDS 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 29.0 5.5 2.6 9.8 Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGIB 2017 100.4 (11.8) 0.20 (0.0) (1.5) QGS 2018 100.4 68.3 1.54 (0.1) (0.9) QGIB 2019 111.2 51.7 1.65 (0.4) (3.8) QGIB 2020 109.4 83.2 2.08 (0.7) (1.5) Qatari Diar 2020 99.6 93.0 2.42 (1.0) NA UK 38.4 0.9 1.1 19.6 Germany 20.8 0.5 1.9 8.0 France 31.6 0.9 3.3 5.2 QGIB 2021 110.0 75.3 2.08 (0.4) (0.5) Italy 151.7 6.1 10.5 54.5 QGIB 2022 109.1 100.6 2.55 (1.2) (0.7) Greece 934.66 5.7 (90.7) (147.4) QGS 2023 104.6 72.3 2.39 (0.9) 0.8 Russia 234.3 7.9 (0.2) (74.7) QGIB 2026 99.8 129.7 3.24 (1.8) NA QGIB 2030 159.2 196.9 4.01 (5.0) 1.1 QGIB 2040 129.4 211.4 4.32 (5.5) 2.9 QGIB 2042 121.0 209.3 4.34 (5.6) 3.5 QGIB 2046 100.7 226.8 4.55 (4.9) NA Japan 33.5 0.0 (0.5) (15.1) Turkey 289.7 18.3 34.0 16.1 Brazil 301.8 31.9 31.8 (193.2) Egypt 468.6 9.0 (11.4) (10.2) GCC US Swap Rates Abu Dhabi 79.0 11.5 9.5 (13.6) Bahrain 370.7 11.5 (14.8) 5.0 Dubai 156.5 5.7 (3.5) (77.2) Qatar 101.0 11.5 9.9 8.4 Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg, QCB 147.0 14.9 (11.0) (8.8) International Credit Spreads Tenor Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 0.902 0.019 0.289 6M LIBOR 1.258 0.013 0.412 12M LIBOR 1.583 0.024 0.405 2 years 1.186 0.152 0.007 5 years 1.578 0.309 (0.167) 10 years 2.020 0.381 (0.168) 30 years 2.379 0.366 (0.243) iTraxx Europe 76.9 0.4 3.6 76.9 iTraxx Europe Crossover 344.3 4.1 13.2 344.3 Source: Bloomberg CDX North America IG 76.0 (5.1) (2.8) 76.0 Commentary CDX North America HY 420.4 (12.8) (1.1) 420.4 iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 71.8 (2.7) 2.4 71.8 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 125.8 (4.4) 3.9 125.8 US long-term treasury yields rose during the last week with a broad sell-off across the fixed income market as investors fear that protectionist trade policies by US President-elect Donald Trump may boost inflation, thus impacting the value of US bonds. Moreover, Trump’s plans to spend more on infrastructure could increase the deficit and treasury supply. US 30-year bond yields, rose to their highest level since January-16. In Europe, yields on 10-year Italian sovereign bond rose amid concerns about upcoming referendum on Italian constitutional reform. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP November 13 , 2016 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 44.8 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 43.4 Oil prices declined during the week as OPEC October output reached record high, casting doubt on its efforts for a coordinated output cut. Supply concerns weighed on the commodity after IEA increased its 2017 estimate of non-OPEC oil production. Rise in crude stock piles and Baker Hughes data showing an addition of 2 rigs to US rig count also weighed on crude prices. Copper was the biggest gainer this week due to Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections, as he has been stressing on upgrading infrastructure in the country. Hopes of pickup in demand from China also benefited the commodity. Gold price fell during the week as stronger dollar weighed on the precious metal. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.6 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,224.3 Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.4 Copper (USD/lb) 250.9 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) Copper WTI Crude Brent Natural Gas Silver Gold YTD Performance (%) Silver Brent Copper WTI Crude Gold Natural Gas 10.8 (1.5) (1.8) (5.3) (5.4) (6.1) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 25.8 20.0 17.5 17.2 15.5 12.4 0.0 Source: Bloomberg 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.2626 USD/INR 66.7462 EUR/USD 1.0885 USD/CNY 6.8120 CAD/USD 0.7386 USD/TRY 3.2488 AUD/USD 0.7546 USD/EGP 16.5425 NZD/USD 0.7130 USD/ZAR 14.3352 106.6500 USD/JPY 65.8368 USD/RUB Commentary USD gained against most of its peers during the week as investors bet that the administration of President-elect Donald Trump and large fiscal stimulus measures will boost inflation leading to faster pace of rate hike. The currency was also supported by encouraging economic indicators such as positive date on jobs and consumer credits in the US. CAD fell on back of weak oil prices and skepticism that Trump’s protectionist trade policies could spell an end for NAFTA. EUR also remained under pressure throughout the week due to slew of weak economic data and strength in the USD. The losses were however capped as Germany’s October inflation reached 2-year high. GBP closed in green buoyed by expectations that Trump’s victory will produce a US-administration that sympathizes with its Brexit decision. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) GBP CNY CAD INR AUD RUB EUR NZD TRY JPY ZAR EGP YTD Performance (%) 0.6 (0.7) (1.0) (1.1) (1.7) (2.0) (2.6) (2.7) (2.9) (3.3) (5.3) (6.1) (7.0) Source: Bloomberg (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 JPY RUB ZAR NZD AUD CAD EUR INR CNY TRY GBP EGP 12.7 10.9 7.9 4.4 3.6 2.2 (0.1) (2.0) (4.6) (10.3) (14.5) (52.6) (60.0) (50.0) (40.0) (30.0) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4