GCC Daily Market Update - 30 Nov

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 30 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,204.7 19,121.6 4,873.2 6,772.0 10,620.5 4,551.5 74,205.5 18,307.0 22,737.1 3,282.9 26,394.0 2.9 23.7 16.2 (27.5) 37.8 41.1 (784.8) (49.9) (93.5) 5.9 43.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 (0.4) 0.4 0.9 (1.1) (0.3) (0.4) 0.2 0.2 3.7 5.4 1.5 (2.6) (0.4) 0.9 (5.5) 5.1 (0.9) 5.9 (5.5) 7.9 9.7 6.1 8.5 (1.1) (1.8) 3.5 (3.8) 3.8 (7.2) 1.1 9,636.4 6,896.8 4,261.2 3,333.7 5,543.6 5,481.3 1,177.3 1,476.5 2,882.3 (52.7) (7.0) 4.3 23.3 3.8 (4.9) 0.2 (3.9) 0.7 (0.5) (0.1) 0.1 0.7 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.3) 0.0 (5.3) 14.7 (0.9) 0.0 2.6 (0.0) 2.5 (1.3) (0.3) (7.6) (0.2) (1.1) 5.8 (1.3) 1.4 (3.2) 2.0 3.0 46.4 45.2 3.3 1,187.9 259.5 (1.9) (1.9) 0.1 (2.9) (6.2) (3.9) (3.9) 2.6 (0.2) (2.3) (3.6) (3.0) 10.4 (6.7) 18.2 24.9 22.7 43.0 12.0 22.1 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks were mixed on Tuesday. US stocks closed higher as strong set of GDP and consumer confidence data boosted sentiment. S&P 500 index added 0.1% with Healthcare and Real Estate stocks leading the charge. The rally in Healthcare segment was led by UnitedHealth Group Inc. after the company issued a better than expected earnings forecast for the coming year. The Energy sector was however down as oil futures plunged nearly 4% as investors were skeptical about OPEC deal completing its course. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.3% with Italian banks leading advances. Mining heavy UK’s FTSE underperformed its peer indices, as Mining and Energy shares come under pressure, amidst drop in metal and oil prices. In Asia, Japanese benchmark index ended 0.3% lower as data showed weakness in consumption, which slid 0.4% YoY in October-16. GCC Gulf indices closed on a mixed note on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia's stock market gave up early gains by the close as oil prices pulled back. The Banking and Petrochemical sectors, which led the market up during most of its rebound this month, underperformed on Tuesday. Speculative activity in small caps supported markets in the UAE, with Dubai’s index up 0.7% as Dubai Investments surged 3.2%. Loss making Arabtec climbed 2.3% following the appointment of new CEO. Abu Dhabi's index edged up 0.1%, buoyed by Banking stocks. Qatar QE index underperformed its gulf peers as foreign and local retail investors turned bearing on bourse, following drop in oil prices. Losses were however capped, supported by bullish bets from domestic and Gulf institutions. Banking stocks came under severe selling pressure, with sector heavyweight QNB (3.7%) leading decliners. Trade turnover and volumes were on the increase in the market, where Telecom and Banking sectors together accounted for about 72% of the total volume. Out of 39 stocks traded, 17 gained, 16 fell and 6 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.1 1.5 4.3 51.3 DSM 20 14.0 1.5 4.2 44.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.4 1.6 3.4 1,638.4 UAE (ADX) 11.0 1.3 5.7 42.1 UAE (DFM) 10.9 1.2 4.1 105.8 Kuwait (KSE) 18.6 1.0 4.4 29.6 Oman (MSM) 10.3 1.1 5.3 7.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.6 0.4 4.8 1.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Al Meera Cons Goods Mannai Corporation Qatar Navigation Ooredoo Qsc Top Losers Qatar National Bank Qatar & Oman Investm Widam Food Co Dlala Holding QGMD Close Price 19.7 154.0 77.9 87.5 92.8 0.5 4.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 (35.4) (30.0) (18.3) (7.9) 23.7 (34.6) (27.7) (18.0) (10.6) 40.6 5.0 80.1 0.1 29.8 116.2 143.5 9.3 60.0 19.6 9.5 (5.5) (0.2) (1.2) (0.4) (0.2) (3.7) (2.1) (2.0) (1.9) (1.6) (1.6) (24.4) 13.6 6.1 (31.1) 7.6 (25.4) 25.0 6.1 (29.5) 198.0 9.9 26.6 25.6 30.4 12.7 57.5 NA 11.9 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 17.0 19.4 7.2 11.1 13.6 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 4/Sep 30.0 20.0 9,636.4 10.0 0.0 18/Sep 2/Oct 16/Oct Index Volume (mn) 30/Oct 13/Nov 27/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,668.3 5,572.3 3,026.7 4,240.3 2,114.5 1,105.6 2,408.9 1D Change (%) (1.7) 0.7 (0.1) 0.9 (0.6) 1.9 0.8 Buy (%) 16.7 30.2 46.9 6.3 46.8 53.1 Sell (%) 20.5 7.5 27.9 5.0 67.1 72.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 30 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS    US GDP grew at a 3.2% annualized rate for Q3-2016 as compared to an initial estimate of 2.9%, mainly on the back of healthy consumer spending, according to the Commerce Department. (Source: Bloomberg) Harmonized German consumer prices rose 0.7% YoY in November-16, however were unchanged over the month. Energy prices remained the main drag on the headline figure, falling more strongly than in the previous month, while rising costs for food and rents were the most important drivers of inflation. (Source: Reuters) Potentially higher interest costs and volatile foreign exchange rates represent the top credit risks for Asia-Pacific in 2017, according to S&P. However, the agency expects economic growth in the region to remain steady majorly driven by higher retail sales stemming from rising income and consumption. (Source: Econotimes)  China will spend at least CNY 1.2tn (USD 174bn) on hydro and wind energy infrastructure between 2016 and 2020, according to the National Energy Administration. (Source: Reuters)  Japan's industrial production in October-16 was slightly stronger than economists’ forecast, as exports compensated for continued weak domestic spending. Industrial output rose 0.1% in October-16 from a month earlier. (Source: Straits times)   Australian economic growth could slip below 3% by the end of 2016 and stay at that level until 2018, according to OECD. However, It added that government spending on infrastructure, funded by borrowing could lead to recovery, (Source: The Guardian) (Source: Trade Arabia)  The investment in buildings and infrastructure is playing a key role in supporting the UAE’s economic diversification agenda. The UAE's built assets, including transport links, residential and commercial property, and productive industrial centres, will contribute USD 351bn to the country's economy in 2016, according to a report by Arcadis. (Source: (Source: Trade Arabia) Oman Oil Refineries and Petroleum Industries is offering business opportunities worth of USD 400mn for SME’s at its USD 6.5bn Liwa Plastics Industries Complex. (Source: Times of Oman)  GFH Capital, a fully owned subsidiary of Bahrain based GFH Financial Group, has appointed Luay Ahmadi as its senior executive officer to lead the Dubai based investment bank.. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based Salhia Real Estate has sold its entire shares in a company listed on the Tadawul. The exit value stands at KWD 2.57mn. The company said that a profit worth KWD 1.35mn was generated from this exit deal. Salhia has not disclosed the name of the company in which stakes were sold. (Source: Mubasher) QATAR NEWS  Qatar will give USD 1.25bn in aid to Tunisia to help the North African country's struggling economy, the Emir of Qatar told at an investment conference in Tunis. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar fuel prices will go up 5 to 10 dirhams per liter starting 01st December 2016, the Ministry of Energy and Industry has announced. The cost of one liter of 91-octane, premium grade petrol will be QAR 1.45, up from QAR 1.35/liter currently. Diesel will remain steady at QAR 1.40. (Source: Doha News)  Built assets are expected to contribute USD 152bn to Qatar’s economy in 2016, with their contribution accounting to 44% of the nation’s GDP, according to a report by Arcadis. The report further added that investment in buildings and infrastructure is playing a key role in supporting Qatar’s economic diversification agenda. (Source: Gulf Times)  CBQ launched a 5 year plan that is aimed at halting five consecutive quarters of falling profit. The bank will cut its exposure to the property market from current 23% to maximum of 16%, while raising its share of exposure to the government and public sector from 8% now to a minimum of 16% as a part of a turnaround plan under new chief executive Joseph Abraham. (Source: Zawya)  HBK Contracting informed that its joint venture with China Railway Construction Corporation has won the main contract for 80,000 seater Lusail Stadium near Doha. The stadium is scheduled for completion by 2020 and will host the opening and Final matches of the 2022 FIFA World Cup Qatar.(Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Ports Management Company (Mwani Qatar) and Qatar Navigation (Milaha) have established a new company, QTerminals, to manage the new Hamad Port in Umm Al-Houl near Mesaieed. As per the agreement, the new company will be co-owned by Mwani Qatar (51%) and Milaha (49%), and will manage operations at Hamad Port as an independent company. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Navigation's (Milaha) purchase of Qatar Petroleum's stake in oilfield services firm Al Shaheen Holding has been delayed citing ongoing merger talks between Baker Hughes and GE's oil and gas division. Al Shaheen has three joint ventures in oilfield services, two of which are with GE Oil and Gas. (Source: The Peninsula)  QNB exercised its right to convert its holding of preference shares in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) into ordinary shares of ETI. Post conversion, QNB’s effective ownership in ETI remains at 20%. Trade Arabia)    UAE based Schon Properties announced the launch of iSuites, which is an AED 3.2bn hospitality portfolio that will see the development of 2,550 hotel apartments at a single site within Dubai Investment Park, close to the World Expo 2020 site. (Source: Trade Arabia) Nshama, a Dubai based private developer awarded construction contracts worth AED 3bn for eight residential projects and all requisite infrastructure for its project at Town Square in Dubai. The key contractors chosen include Shapoorji Pallonji, Kier Dubai, Al Naboodah Contracting, Beaver Gulf Group and Binladin Group. (Source: Trade Arabia) PwC Middle East entered into an agreement to acquire Dubai based NSI DMCC, a technology consulting company. The acquisition of NSI will complement PwC’s digital transformation capabilities and enhance its ability to deliver innovative solutions across all channels, platforms and devices. (Source: Zawya)  UAE’s Arabtec Holding, announces the appointment of Hamish Tyrwhitt as Chief Executive Officer with effect from November 28th 2016 replacing the acting CEO Saeed Al Mehairbi. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) said it decided to ban three insurance companies (Malath Insurance, Mediterranean & Gulf Cooperative Insurance and ACIG Insurance) from issuing insurance policies for new vehicles. SAMA said the decision will be effective from 29th November 2016. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia approved the allocation of SAR 100bn (USD 26.6bn) from the kingdom's reserves to the Public Investment Fund, according to state news agency SPA. The funds would be used to support both foreign and local investments, particularly opportunities in the local market that would help to build the private sector. (Source: Reuters) The Muscat Airport Cargo Village will be set up on an area of 30,000 sq ft and is expected to create a revenue of OMR 30mn in addition to revenues through auxiliary activities, according to Tanfeedh note.  GCC NEWS  Tanfeedh, Oman’s national programme for enhancing economic diversification, showcased investment opportunities worth OMR 16.3bn (USD 42.2bn) in manufacturing, logistics, and tourism sectors. Of this, the private sector contribution is expected to be OMR 14.0bn, (Source: QSE) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 30 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0680 USD/QAR 3.6413 112.3800 EUR/QAR 3.8889 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2523 JPY/QAR 0.0324 USD/CHF 1.0117 GBP/QAR 4.5600 USD/CAD 1.3432 CHF/QAR 3.5992 AUD/USD 0.7484 CAD/QAR 2.7109 NZD/USD 0.7125 AUD/QAR 2.7251 USD/INR 68.1550 INR/QAR 0.0534 USD/TRY 3.4090 TRY/QAR 1.0681 USD/ZAR 13.8818 ZAR/QAR 0.2623 USD/BRL 3.3928 BRL/QAR 1.0732 FX Commentary USD continued its downward trajectory as investors booked profits, post a rally in greenback of back of prospects of high fiscal stimulus from the President elect. Positive Q3-16 US GDP data, steady growth in US home prices and improvement in consumer confidence for November lent some support to the currency, however fall in oil prices weighed on the positive sentiment. CAD weakened as oil prices tumbled, while GBP ended in green after data showed lending to Britons expanded last month at the fastest annual pace in 11 years, indicating a resilient consumer demand post Brexit vote. EUR rose as data showed improvement in Eurozone economic confidence and expansion in Greek economy. JPY started on a very weak note, following strength in USD, however pared most of its losses, amidst demand for safe haven as oil fell and strong industrial production data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.61 0.94 1.64 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.08) 1.05 1.18 1.38 1.70 2.11 SAIBOR NA 1.39 1.86 2.09 2.48 EIBOR 0.47 0.57 0.76 1.41 2.08 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.06 1.38 2.00 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5.0% 4.52% 2.35% 2.5% 0.0% 2.81% 2.81% 1.94% 2.26% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.80% 1.53% 0.62% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.96% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.0 6.8 Turkey 292.5 18.0 UK 39.0 6.9 Brazil 300.3 (50.5) Germany 22.7 4.0 Egypt 451.2 (37.2) France 39.5 (1.0) Abu Dhabi 69.0 (30.7) Italy 168.2 41.8 Bahrain 331.2 (40.1) Greece 937.4 (18.0) Dubai 158.0 (57.9) Russia 229.6 (31.4) Qatar 89.0 (20.6) Japan 32.5 (1.5) Saudi Arabia 129.0 (35.5) 2.47% 1.76% 2.0% 2.13% 1.95% 1.29% 1.0% 2.40% 2.02% 1.76% 1.52% 0.97% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:45 France CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov P 0.60% 0.50% 10:45 France CPI YoY Nov P 0.50% 0.40% 11:55 Germany Unemployment Change (000's) Nov (5k) (13k) 13:00 Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY Nov 0.60% 0.50% 13:00 Italy CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM Nov P (0.20%) (0.10%) 13:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov P 0.10% (0.10%) 13:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized MoM Nov P (0.20%) 0.20% Nov-25th - 5.50% 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 16:15 US ADP Employment Change Nov 170k 147k 16:30 US Personal Income Oct 0.40% 0.30% 16:30 Canada GDP MoM Sep 0.10% 0.20% 16:30 US Personal Spending Oct 0.50% 0.50% 16:30 Canada Quarterly GDP Annualized 3Q 3.40% (1.60%) 17:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov 52.5 50.6 18:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Oct 0.10% 1.50% 02:50 Japan Capital Spending YoY 3Q (0.40%) 3.10% 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Nov F - 51.1 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 30 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 8.9 0.0 8.9 2.0 5.8 5.2 3.6 0.0 4.3 6.6 2.0 6.3 3.6 6.6 7.8 6.0 5.9 5.5 0.0 9.3 4.4 5.3 6.0 7.2 3.5 4.8 4.7 3.6 2.3 7.1 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.6 2.4 3.1 8.2 2.8 7.4 3.4 2.3 8.1 4.7 3.3 2.4 3.1 2.4 5.5 5.9 5.3 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.1 0.9 2.2 1.0 2.0 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.8 3.9 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.8 2.4 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 17.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.6 11.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 10.9 11.6 10.3 26.1 10.8 7.0 20.7 18.5 12.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 13.0 5.6 10.8 13.1 32.0 18.9 18.5 14.4 23.5 10.1 10.9 17.2 16.4 9.0 18.3 4.0 12.0 11.4 11.9 22.6 14.0 12.0 17.5 13.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.2 14.7 12.9 10.9 12.2 13.2 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 33.6 20.0 33.8 54.0 17.2 33.5 13.9 9.6 99.1 61.0 149.0 9.5 76.0 64.0 150.0 25.4 138.0 9.6 10.8 61.2 76.1 13.2 29.0 104.1 15.1 208.0 54.0 42.0 84.0 19.2 17.8 80.3 44.5 48.6 29.9 14.8 11.9 18.5 90.8 8.8 50.1 22.8 85.4 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4