GCC Daily Market Update - 24 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 24 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,048.0 17,492.9 4,355.1 6,136.4 9,842.3 4,325.1 76,765.9 16,654.6 19,809.0 2,843.6 25,230.4 (4.3) (8.0) (7.8) (19.9) (73.7) (28.8) 408.1 (81.8) (43.2) 18.2 (71.5) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.7) (0.7) 0.5 (0.5) (0.2) 0.6 (0.3) (0.8) (1.6) 0.3 (1.7) (2.0) (2.3) (10.0) (0.1) (6.0) (3.2) (1.5) 0.2 0.4 (5.2) (1.7) (8.4) (6.7) 7.0 (12.5) (9.6) (19.7) (3.4) 9,681.5 6,425.2 4,198.6 3,216.4 5,314.5 5,948.4 1,099.9 1,430.4 2,785.5 43.3 (203.7) 11.0 7.8 (2.5) 17.3 (2.3) (0.0) (2.2) 0.5 (3.1) 0.3 0.2 (0.1) 0.3 (0.2) (0.0) (0.1) (5.0) (5.6) (7.6) (7.9) (1.4) 0.1 (1.0) (5.8) (1.8) (7.2) (7.0) (2.5) 2.1 (5.4) 10.0 (9.5) (2.2) (0.6) 48.4 48.1 2.1 1,251.5 205.8 (0.4) 0.3 (0.0) (1.4) (0.1) (0.8) 0.7 (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 4.4 (5.3) (3.0) (9.7) 29.1 29.4 (11.8) 18.0 (3.6) Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global markets ended in red on Monday on back of fourth consecutive drop in oil prices after Iran vowed to ramp up output and as a slump in the number of rigs drilling for crude in the United States stalled. US indices closed ~0.2% lower, with Utilities stock leading the decline. Comments from San Francisco and St. Louis Fed Presidents indicated an increased probability of interest rate hike, which majorly weighed on high dividend paying Utilities sector. Energy stocks closed 0.3% lower. European markets were also impacted by drop in oil prices, with broad based Stoxx 600 closing 0.4% lower. Eurozone PMI data, which hit a 13 month low in May, also hurt sentiments. Energy stocks led losses in much of Asian markets. Japan’s benchmark closed 0.5% lower after data showed a 10% YoY fall in Japanese exports in April. Stronger yen also weighed on index. China’s index bucked the negative trend, closing 0.6% in green. GCC Gulf markets ended on a mixed note on Monday. Saudi Arabia’s index plunged 3.1% in a broad-based sell-off, following no positive indicator and a sustained fall in oil prices in last few days. Index major SABIC closed 3.0% in red. Dubai’s index added 0.2% with most trade concentrated in small and mid-cap shares. Investment bank Shuaa Capital climbed 2.8% after the company announced a 15% cut in its workforce. Abu Dhabi’s index closed 0.3% in green led by Etisalat (0.3%) and Dana Gas (1.9%). Qatar QE index added 0.5% on Monday, snapping a 3 day bearish run, on back of buying support from foreign institutions. Lower selling pressure from Gulf individual investors and institutions also helped the market. Buying interest was majorly witnessed in Consumer Goods and Realty sector. In terms of volume Banking, Real estate and Industrials stocks together constituted about 68% of the total traded. About 59% of the stocks ended in green, with heavy volumes witnessed in Barwa, Nakilat, Doha Bank, Dlala and Al Meera. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 12.8 1.5 4.2 47.1 10,400 DSM 20 13.3 1.5 4.2 36.9 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.8 1.5 3.8 1,348.2 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.1 1.4 5.8 38.2 8,900 UAE (DFM) 10.6 1.2 4.4 58.8 8,400 28/Feb Kuwait (KSE) 17.1 1.0 4.9 39.6 Oman (MSM) 11.3 1.4 4.3 6.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.2 0.4 5.0 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers MERS Nakilat Barwa Real Estate Co Doha Bank Qsc Widam Food Co Top Losers Gulf Warehousing Co Doha Insurance Co QOIS Qatar Navigation Ooredoo Qsc Close Price 209.0 23.1 31.3 35.7 58.1 6.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 3.0 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.8 (5.0) (1.1) (21.9) (19.9) 10.0 (13.3) 2.6 (38.5) (35.9) (2.7) 3.0 439.6 270.5 50.2 56.8 60.0 19.5 11.1 87.0 83.3 (1.4) (0.3) (0.1) (0.9) (0.7) (2.3) (1.5) (1.3) (1.0) (0.8) 5.4 (7.1) (10.2) (8.4) 11.1 (9.3) (27.8) (31.9) (11.2) (13.2) 80.5 16.3 0.3 9.0 19.9 19.0 1.6 9.1 210.7 10.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 25.3 12.8 26.7 7.8 13.4 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 20.0 9,681.5 10.0 13/Mar 27/Mar 10/Apr Index Volume (mn) 24/Apr 8/May 0.0 22/May Index Value Closing Level 2,608.9 6,503.9 3,023.0 4,177.5 2,392.5 1,061.8 2,482.4 1D Change (%) 0.5 1.1 (0.3) 0.6 0.9 (0.6) 0.5 Buy (%) 41.7 13.6 55.3 11.1 33.6 44.7 Sell (%) 36.7 20.7 57.4 10.8 31.9 42.7 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 24 , 2016 plans to establish of two regional Islamic banks based in Istanbul and Jakarta. (Source: Arabian Business) GLOBAL NEWS  Eurozone consumer sentiment rose for the second consecutive month in May-16. Consumer morale increased to -7.0 points from 9.3 in April-16 and higher than the average forecast of -9.0. (Source:  Reuters)    Eurozone preliminary PMI from Markit showed that business activity in the 19-country region fell to 52.9 in May-16 as compared to 53.0 in April-16, failing to meet an expected reading of 53.2. This was also a 16-month low despite attempts by the European Central Bank to boost growth and business activity in the region. (Source: CNBC) Arabian Business)  Emaar Properties’ Saudi division has awarded the construction contract for a new Jeddah project to Arabian Construction Company. The value of the deal was not disclosed. The work consists of three high-rise towers with 283 homes. (Source: Arabian Business) German Markit's flash composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services activity that accounts for more than twothirds of the German economy, rose to 54.7 in May-16 from 53.6 in April-16. This was the highest reading since December-15 and beat a forecasted reading of 53.8. (Source: Reuters)  Oman witnessed 8.4% rise in credit and 12.6% rise in core capital and reserves in 2015. Even though the total deposits registered a lesser rise at 3.4%, there was no let-up in banking activities and reach, executive president of the Central Bank of Oman said. (Source: Times Of Japan all-industry activity index showcased a recovery in March-16. The activity index rose 0.1% in March-16, compared to a fall of 0.9% in February-16. Industrial production jumped 3.8%, while construction output slid further 0.6%. (Source: Economic Times)  Leading Omani developer Omagine is in discussion with two Chinese contractors for the construction of its USD 2.5bn beach-front realestate and tourism project in the sultanate. (Source: Trade Arabia)  A plan to build a 2.5mn tons per annum steel plant in Sur, Oman has been put on hold, in view of sluggish steel prices in global markets and the economic slowdown caused by the weakness in oil prices. Oman) GCC NEWS  Saudi Basic Industries Corp has recommended the appointment of new presidents at three of its affiliates. No reasoning was given by the sources for the changes at the companies, which are all located in Jubail, Saudi Arabia's biggest industrial city on its eastern coast. (Source: Times Of Oman)  Bahrain Inflation stood at 3.8% YoY, to its highest level since December-13, according to Bahrain statistic office. Inflation at housing and utility costs, which account for 24% of consumer expenses, rose 3.8% from a year earlier. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain-based Mumtalakat has partnered with Regent Properties to acquire an interest in several commercial real estate assets in the US. The assets have a total value of around USD 250mn and include office buildings in Phoenix, Arizona and Dallas. (Source: Arabian Business) (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE and Oman are in talk to ease travel between the two counties, UAE's Ministry of Interior has announced. The Ministry said that up to USD 35bn will be invested in the tourism industry in the next 25 years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority has handed out a deal for work on the second phase of the Seih Assalam dual carriageway project worth USD 48mn (AED 178mn). (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Municipality has awarded an AED 1.8bn (USD 489mn) contract for the development of its giant Arena project, which will feature three hotel and office buildings as well as a huge conference hall in the UAE emirate. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Yotel, an affiliate company of IFA Hotels & Resorts, has signed a longterm agreement with Dubai Investment Properties to operate a new hotel in Dubai. This Dubai property will be the brand's flagship in the Middle East, with 582 cabins and service apartments. (Source: Arabian QATAR NEWS  Qatar has expressed willingness to engage with Bangladesh on energy cooperation including LNG imports from Qatar, knowledge sharing and technology transfer, according to the Embassy of Bangladesh. They also discussed the extension of the signed MoU on energy cooperation between Bangladesh and Qatar. (Source: Gulf Times)  Despite the negative effect of a protracted period of low oil prices, Qatar’s overall credit profile remains consistent with ‘Aa2’ rating on expected continued strong growth, extraordinary high wealth levels, and strong buffers but its debt levels are comparatively high and reform plans present implementation risks, according to Moody’s. Business)  Dubai’s Shuaa Capital has cut about 15% of its workforce, ahead of a possible 48% sale of a stake in the company by Dubai Group. The stake is worth about AED 315mn (USD 86mn) at stock market prices. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar witnessed an increase of 1.9% in PPI in March-16 mainly due to higher prices for crude petroleum and natural gas, as well as manufactured products. PPI for the industrial sector reported a 32.6% plunge YoY mainly on lower prices of crude petroleum and natural gas, refined petroleum products, basic chemicals and basic metals, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ahli Bank has received the straight through processing (STP) award presented by Commerzbank. The award underlines the bank’s outstanding STP performance of 99.8% in 2015 for the execution of commercial payments in euros. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Chamber and Chamber of Commerce and Industry of El Salvador discussed means of enhancing joint trade exchange and diversifying partnerships between businessmen of Qatar and the Republic of El Salvador. (Source: The Peninsula)  The United Development Company announced that it intends to sell its 10% stake in the Gulf Formaldehyde Company and it will disclose any decision or agreement to be made in this regard. (Source: QSE) (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s first privately run airport terminal opened to the public. The terminal, which has a capacity of 12mn passengers per year, would be fully operational in three weeks, according to General Authority of Civil Aviation. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s construction contract awards have declined 51% YoY and 39% QoQ, due to lower oil prices, according to a report by National Commercial Bank. The awards stood at USD 7.4bn (SAR 27.9mn) in Q1-16. Most of the contracts were awarded in the private sector, with 47% in oil and gas, 21% in hospitality and 16% in residential property (Source: Arabian Business)  US-based giant General Electric has announced that it has made a series of deals with Saudi Arabia worth over USD 1.4bn. With 3 offices and 7 facilities, Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest GE workforce in the Middle East with over 2,000 employees. (Source: Saudi Arabia has joined Turkey, Indonesia and Islamic Development Bank as a prospective founder member of a new Islamic finance infrastructure bank, according to Indonesia's Finance Minister. All of them would contribute around USD 300mn each for the project, with 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 24 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1250 USD/QAR 3.6414 109.2400 EUR/QAR 4.0966 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4514 JPY/QAR 0.0333 USD/CHF 0.9895 GBP/QAR 5.2851 USD/CAD 1.3143 CHF/QAR 3.6800 AUD/USD 0.7224 CAD/QAR 2.7706 NZD/USD 0.6763 AUD/QAR 2.6305 USD/INR 66.9950 INR/QAR 0.0544 USD/TRY 2.9953 TRY/QAR 1.2157 USD/ZAR 15.7218 ZAR/QAR 0.2316 USD/BRL 3.5727 BRL/QAR 1.0192 FX Commentary The US dollar fell almost 1% against the Japanese yen yesterday on Japanese trade data and US’ objection to currency intervention by Tokyo. The data showed that Japan posted a trade surplus for the third consecutive month. This bolstered the JPY. In addition, G-7 meeting that concluded on Saturday last week saw US warning Japan against intervening to weaken the Japanese currency, which was perceived to be preventing Japan from weakening its currency. The USD rose against the EUR in early trade following hawkish comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard as they fueled the expectations for a potential rate hike by the US Fed in June/July. But the USD gave up the gains later as traders await fresh flow of US economic data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.38 0.41 0.44 0.66 1.30 (0.40) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.28 1.34 1.42 1.58 1.88 SAIBOR NA NA 1.86 2.14 2.35 EIBOR 0.26 0.36 0.69 1.11 1.68 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.40% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.21% 2.54% 2.54% 1.27% 1.54% 1.81% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.94% 2.62% 0.74% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 21.1 0.6 Turkey 282.1 29.3 UK 34.8 17.5 Brazil 355.6 (44.1) Germany 19.9 7.1 Egypt 480.5 30.0 France 38.3 10.8 Abu Dhabi 95.0 21.6 Italy 129.3 32.6 Bahrain 371.0 25.6 Greece 946.8 (22.2) Dubai 219.0 10.0 Russia 269.5 4.2 Qatar 100.5 26.5 Japan 35.0 (16.7) Saudi Arabia 159.5 9.8 2.00% 1.70% 2.0% 2.28% 2.15% 1.04% 1.0% 0.89% 2.72% 1.50% 1.33% 1.69% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 9:00 Germany Private Consumption QoQ Period Survey Prior 1Q 0.60% 0.30% 9:00 Germany 9:00 Germany Exports QoQ 1Q 0.50% (0.60%) GDP SA QoQ 1Q F 0.70% 0.70% 9:00 9:00 Germany GDP WDA YoY 1Q F 1.60% 1.60% Germany GDP NSA YoY 1Q F 1.30% 1.30% 9:45 France Manufacturing Confidence May 104 104 9:45 France Production Outlook Indicator May -- (1) )9:45 France Own-Company Production Outlook May -- 9 11:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) Apr -- 16.6b 11:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Apr 5.8b 4.2b 11:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Apr 6.4b 4.8b 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation May 49 47.7 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations May 12 11.2 12:00 EC ZEW Survey Expectations May -- 21.5 17:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index May 8 14 17:00 US New Home Sales Apr 523k 511k 17:00 US New Home Sales MoM Apr 2.30% (1.50%) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 24 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.1 0.0 8.4 1.6 5.9 5.3 2.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.5 6.6 2.1 5.3 3.7 4.9 4.2 4.3 4.9 0.0 9.0 4.6 4.6 5.0 7.2 2.7 5.1 5.6 3.8 3.7 2.5 7.4 3.8 4.5 3.9 5.1 3.0 2.9 6.9 3.2 6.9 2.9 2.0 8.0 4.1 3.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.6 2.0 5.4 5.6 5.0 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.8 1.1 2.2 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.7 3.0 3.4 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.3 2.7 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.9 2.8 0.7 2.9 1.6 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 2.7 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.6 9.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.5 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.0 11.6 10.0 26.9 10.5 19.8 25.4 16.3 11.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 13.6 7.2 13.0 13.4 13.0 14.3 8.2 19.8 15.1 24.0 10.4 11.2 14.7 19.6 9.2 14.6 4.6 12.3 10.2 27.3 27.0 13.6 9.7 22.5 11.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 15.0 18.9 12.8 9.4 11.7 12.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 5.3 10.3 4.7 5.7 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 27.8 70.7 20.0 36.0 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.5 37.2 22.8 35.6 67.9 16.9 33.2 17.8 12.3 95.0 61.0 136.1 11.3 102.0 213.5 35.0 154.0 12.2 11.2 58.6 86.6 13.3 36.8 99.1 89.0 18.6 205.7 51.0 40.4 86.9 25.4 19.8 77.0 47.0 58.0 31.8 17.6 14.0 18.8 87.1 11.2 61.8 23.0 88.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the inf ormation provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4