GCC Daily Market Update - 4 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 4 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,063.4 (18.1) 17,750.9 (140.3) 4,341.4 (39.9) 6,185.6 (56.3) 9,926.8 (196.5) 4,372.0 (70.8) 81,069.8 (2,760.1) 16,147.4 NA 20,676.9 (390.1) 2,992.6 54.3 25,229.7 (207.3) (0.9) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9) (1.9) (1.6) (3.3) NA (1.9) 1.8 (0.8) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 (0.9) (1.1) (1.3) (5.0) (3.1) (1.9) 1.8 (1.5) 1.0 1.9 (5.5) (0.9) (7.6) (5.7) 13.0 (15.2) (5.6) (15.4) (3.4) 9,939.0 6,638.2 4,382.1 3,324.0 5,375.4 5,984.0 1,109.5 1,489.9 2,819.5 (153.0) (78.3) (87.7) (61.3) 2.9 31.9 (3.3) (28.1) (25.9) (1.5) (1.2) (2.0) (1.8) 0.1 0.5 (0.3) (1.9) (0.9) (2.4) (2.5) (3.6) (4.8) (0.3) 0.7 (0.1) (1.9) (0.6) (4.7) (4.0) 1.7 5.5 (4.3) 10.7 (8.8) 1.6 0.5 45.0 43.7 2.1 1,291.8 221.5 (0.9) (1.1) 0.0 (4.0) (4.7) (1.9) (2.5) 2.2 (0.3) (2.1) (6.3) (4.8) (4.3) 0.1 (2.8) 20.9 18.0 (10.8) 21.8 3.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks closed in red on Monday, following renewed growth concerns on weak Chinese and British factory data. US indices gave up Monday’s gains further dragged by Oil and Gas stocks, which led decliners closing 2.2% lower, tracking a 2.5% fall in WTI crude oil. All S&P sectors ended in red. European markets also witnessed a sell off after the European Commission said Tuesday that growth in the Eurozone and the wider European Union will be slightly weaker this year than previous forecast. The broad based Stoxx 600 plunged 1.7%, dragged Banking sector (-3.7%), which plunged following a 9.6% decline in Germany’s Commerzbank after it missed consensus estimates and reduced its full year profit outlook. Mining shares were also hit following weak Chinese factory data. In Asia, Shanghai Composite bucked the global trend, surging 1.8% after President Xi Jinping’s stated support for the “healthy development” of the country’s stock markets. GCC Gulf markets fell on Tuesday, dragged by a 1.9% further fall in Brent prices. Saudi Arabia’s index closed 1.2% in red, weighed by index heavy weight SABIC, which closed 2.4% lower. Jarir Marketing fell 1.5% and Saudi Hollandi Bank lost 1.9% as both stocks went ex-dividend. The CMA and stock exchange introduced reforms designed to stimulate trading and draw fresh foreign money, however investors did not react to the reforms, as they are not expected to be implemented before 2017. Dubai's index sank 1.8%, while Abu Dhabi dropped 2.0% as some banks remained soft. Qatar QE index plunged 1.5%, in response to a further dip in oil prices. Despite weakness in the index, non-Qatari individual investors turned bullish on the bourse. All sectors ended in red with significant sell off witnessed in Real Estate counter. Increased volumes were witnessed in Banking, Consumer goods and Realty stocks which together constituted more than 78% of the total traded. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) GCC Fundamentals P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 10,900 Qatar All share 13.2 1.6 4.3 82.1 10,400 DSM 20 13.5 1.5 4.4 34.7 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.3 1.6 3.7 1,687.2 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.4 5.7 33.2 UAE (DFM) 11.2 1.2 4.3 112.3 Kuwait (KSE) 17.4 1.0 4.8 42.5 Oman (MSM) 12.2 1.4 4.4 28.6 Bahrain (BAX) 9.1 0.6 4.9 0.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers QCFS Al Ahli Bank Al Khaleej Takaful Grp QIMD MERS Top Losers Widam Food Co Medicare Group National Leasing QGMD Ezdan Holding Group Close Price 38.0 44.4 26.0 39.8 220.0 3.0 1.1 0.5 0.8 2.0 8.4 2.4 2.0 1.9 0.9 11.8 1.2 (14.8) (0.3) 0.0 (9.5) 0.5 (40.4) (12.6) (12.0) 58.2 87.6 18.0 12.2 17.6 (4.2) (5.4) (0.9) (0.5) (0.7) (6.7) (5.8) (4.5) (3.9) (3.8) 10.2 (26.6) 27.9 (10.9) 10.7 (7.3) 1,502.7 13.5 (49.5) 149.5 17.0 (12.3) 1,014.0 NA (18.0) 24.3 NA 3.8 635.9 26.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency 0.4 0.1 0.8 3.0 39.2 17.7 13.2 22.1 10.2 26.7 20.0 9,939.0 10.0 9,400 8,900 8,400 7/Feb 0.0 21/Feb 6/Mar 20/Mar Index Volume (mn) 3/Apr 17/Apr 1/May Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,684.8 6,456.7 3,067.5 4,316.7 2,453.2 1,137.7 2,516.3 1D Change (%) (1.0) (1.8) (1.4) (0.2) (3.1) (2.0) (0.8) Buy (%) 37.2 32.2 69.4 14.0 16.6 30.6 Sell (%) 38.6 33.4 72.0 10.8 17.2 28.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 4 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS    The UK factory activity shrank unexpectedly in April-16, for the first time in three years. The Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply Purchasing Manager’s Index for the manufacturing sector fell to 49.2 in April-16 from a revised 50.7 in March-16. (Source: London South East) The European Commission (EU) has revised down Italy's growth forecast for this year and expects the country's budget deficit to be higher than the government's forecast. EU predicts in its Spring Economic Forecast that Italy's economy will grow 1.1% in 2016 versus the government's forecast of 1.2%. (Source: London South East)  Saudi Arabia’s first privately run terminal, terminal 5 of King Khalid International Airport is set to be fully operational during Ramadan, Emir of Riyadh said. The terminal 5 would start experimental operation in May-16. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman’s natural gas production and imports grew by 8.3% to 10,206mn cubic meters (MNCM) in Q1-16 compared to 9,426 MNCM for the same period of last year. Non-associated gas showed a growth of 8.1% at 8,459 MNCM, associated gas production surged ahead by 9% to 1,748 MNCM. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman’s conventional and Islamic financial institutions achieved a robust 12.5% or OMR 2.27bn growth in credit of OMR 20.54bn for the 12-month period ending in February-16. Similarly, total net earnings by Omani banks rose 3.9% YoY in Q1-16 (adjusted profit). Australia's Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low 1.75% as it responded to a low outlook for inflation. The Bank also decided to cut the cash rate by a quarter percentage point from its previous low of 2%. (Source: ABC News)   China and Japan’s economies are expected to slow sharply over the next two years but Asian growth will remain strong as domestic demand takes up the slack from weak global trade, according to the IMF. The Fund predicted growth in Asia to come in at 5.3% this year and next, down from its previous forecast of 5.4%. (Source: Gulf Times) Bahrain International Airport’s appointed International design practice, Benoy to the new terminal development. Benoy will carry out interior design activities for the new passenger terminal building, which is being developed as part of the Bahrain Airport Modernization Program. (Source: Arabian Business)   China’s manufacturing industry edged down in April-16. PMI index by Caixin, fell to 49.4 for April-16, a 0.3 percentage point down from 49.7 in March-16. For the 14th consecutive month, this index remained below 50. The official PMI weakened to 50.1 in April-16 from 50.2 in March-16. (Source: WSJ) Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) reported 88.6% fall in Q1-16 net profit to BHD 4.2mn (USD 11.2mn) as compared to BHD 37.2mn in the prioryear period as a result of a collapse in aluminium prices. (Source: Arabian (Source: Times of Oman) Business) QATAR NEWS  S&P has cut Commercial Bank of Qatar’s rating to BBB+ with negative outlook, while outlook for Qatar Islamic Bank and Doha Bank has been changed to negative from stable. Qatar National Bank’s ratings was affirmed with stable outlook. According to S&P, most Qatari banks will witness increasing credit losses and weakening earnings as a result of the significant decline in energy prices and weakness in Qatar’s economy. (Source: Bloomberg)  Qatar’s total broad money supply (M2) was recorded at about QAR 506bn during March-16, marginal increase of 0.23% compared to February-15, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Chamber and the Federation of UAE Chambers of Commerce & Industry announced a plan to form a committee that will look for opportunities in the region and outside in the area of food security, tourism, services, information technology, housing and other sectors. GCC NEWS     GCC is a major hub for remittance outflows to other Arab countries. Remittance corridors remain steady even in the face of market challenges and the socio-political landscape in the Arab world, according to the World Bank Migration and Development Report. GCC’s remittance to the Arab markets have grown by 6% YoY in Q116. (Source: Emirates247) UAE's non-oil private sector lost some growth momentum in April16. The seasonally adjusted headline Emirates NBD UAE PMI stood at 52.8 in April-16, down from March's four-month high of 54.5. It was also below the Q1-16 average of 53.4. (Source: Khaleej Times) UAE supplied 29.1mn barrels of crude oil to Japan in March-16, according to the Agency of Energy and Natural Resource. This accounts for 26.3% of Japan’s total crude oil import. Total crude oil imports in that month amounted to 110.4mn barrels. (Source: HSN) (Source: Zawya)  Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund is hiring more external advisors and using more of the country’s cash to buy assets in the US and Asia after traditionally focusing on European markets, according to Reuters. Qatar Investment Authority would invest USD 35bn in the US and USD 2bn in Russia. (Source: Doha News)  Qatar has consistently maintained its second position among the most attractive countries for infrastructure investment, according to Arcadis report ‘Third Global Infrastructure Investment Index (GIII) 2016’. (Source: Gulf Times)  The global energy giant Total SA has announced its plans to invest in Qatar's emerging solar energy sector by establishing partnership with local companies, the French energy Group's Chairman and CEO stated. (Source: Zawya)  Ooredoo announced that it has signed a three-year deal with technology leader Nokia, as it continues to enhance the strength, speed and coverage of the Ooredoo Supernet in Qatar. (Source: The Gulf Capital, a leading alternative investment firm in the Middle East, has acquired 100% of Multibrands Trading, a top F&B distributor in Saudi Arabia, with an annual turnover in excess of USD 100mn. (Source: GDN)   The office market in Dubai, UAE, continues to see strong demand for good quality, efficient, and well located accommodations, resulting in declining vacancy rates in key sub-markets, according to CBRE report. Dubai’s residential rental market has started to show widespread deflationary trends, with average rentals declining by around two per cent during Q1-16, as stated in the report. (Source: GDN) Abu Dhabi's Waha Capital posted a 3.5% drop in Q1-16 net profit to AED 175.9mn (USD 47.9mn) compared to AED 182.2mn in the prioryear period in 2015, partly due to higher costs offsetting positive revenues. Revenue from the sale of goods and services in Q1-16 reached AED 86.4mn as against AED 55.8mn in Q1-15. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi financial firm ADS Securities has mandates to arrange bond issues worth USD 13bn this year as governments and companies raise capital to cope with falling oil prices and a stuttering global economy, CEO of the firm said. (Source: Arabian Business) Peninsula)  Hamad Medical Corporation has announced by the end of December17, there will be more than 1,100 newly-built hospital beds in the new facilities across Qatar. (Source: Doha News) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 4 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1526 USD/QAR 3.6406 106.6000 EUR/QAR 4.1962 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4565 JPY/QAR 0.0342 USD/CHF 0.9545 GBP/QAR 5.3025 USD/CAD 1.2724 CHF/QAR 3.8141 AUD/USD 0.7485 CAD/QAR 2.8612 NZD/USD 0.6914 AUD/QAR 2.7250 USD/INR 65.9275 INR/QAR 0.0552 USD/TRY 2.8489 TRY/QAR 1.2779 USD/ZAR 14.6397 ZAR/QAR 0.2487 USD/BRL 3.5586 BRL/QAR 1.0230 FX Commentary The US dollar rebounded against a basket of currencies on Tuesday in reaction to a drop in oil price and comments from Fed officials that raised the chances of higher interest rates this year. EUR declined against USD from a peak of $1.1618 reached earlier in the session, which was its strongest level since late August-15. Emerging markets fear higher US rates could result in investors seeking less-risky assets with improving yields. Losses in BRL were further intensified by ongoing intervention by the country’s Central Bank. CAD witnessed its biggest daily decline in more than nine months, sliding against USD alongside energy prices and global stock markets as weak Chinese economic data raised worries about the global economy. The Dollar index, a measure of USD against a basket of six rival currencies, was up 0.3% at 92.90. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.38 0.41 0.44 0.64 1.23 (0.39) (0.36) (0.34) (0.25) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.07 1.16 1.31 1.47 1.85 SAIBOR NA NA 1.75 2.05 2.26 EIBOR 0.27 0.36 0.62 1.06 1.62 BMIBOR 0.45 0.65 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.15% 5.0% 2.12% 2.5% 0.0% 5 Years CDS 1.0% 2.01% 1.70% 2.0% 2.19% 0.90% 0.88% 1.68% 1.43% 1.23% 2 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 21.3 0.8 Turkey 249.4 11.9 UK 35.5 19.3 Brazil 344.6 (47.4) Germany 17.3 4.5 Egypt 480.5 94.5 France 40.9 12.4 Abu Dhabi 95.9 22.8 123.1 21.7 Bahrain 360.0 39.1 1,131.1 Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 1.76% US Italy 0.0% 1.14% 2 Yrs US Swap Rates 2.69% 1.46% 2.64% 0.61% Source: Bloomberg 2.27% 2.43% 0.92% Source: Bloomberg 3.0% 2.43% 130.1 Dubai 217.0 22.0 Russia 259.3 4.8 Qatar 96.4 23.3 Japan 37.8 (6.2) Saudi Arabia 158.0 8.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 8:30 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Apr F 53.2 53.2 8:30 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Apr F 53 53 9:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Apr 54 54.2 11:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications Apr-29th -- (4.10%) 12:45 US ADP Employment Change Apr 195k 200k 13:00 US Trade Balance Mar ($41.2b) ($47.1b) 14:15 US Markit US Composite PMI Apr F -- 51.7 14:30 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Apr 54.8 54.5 14:30 US Factory Orders Mar 0.60% (1.70%) 14:30 US Durable Goods Orders Mar F 0.80% 0.80% 14:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Mar F (0.10%) (0.20%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Aluminium Bahrain Bsc Ras Al Khaimah White Cement Waha Capital Pjsc Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 156.5 (24.3) (11.3) 4.2 (88.6) (126.9) 79.8 (13.3) 7.5 10.9 9.6 (555.7) 197.0 230.0 59.5 175.8 (3.5) 45.4 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 4 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 8.0 0.0 8.2 1.6 5.8 5.2 2.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.3 6.4 2.1 5.2 3.6 5.4 4.1 4.3 4.8 0.0 8.9 4.3 4.7 4.9 7.1 2.9 4.9 5.7 3.6 3.7 2.4 7.7 3.8 4.4 3.9 4.9 2.9 2.8 6.4 3.1 6.6 2.7 1.9 7.9 3.9 3.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.4 1.9 5.3 5.6 5.0 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.9 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.7 1.1 2.2 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.5 1.7 2.2 1.5 0.8 3.9 0.8 2.1 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8 3.3 2.8 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.0 2.9 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 2.7 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.9 9.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.7 12.0 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.5 12.0 10.4 27.4 10.9 18.0 25.9 16.3 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.5 7.1 13.1 13.4 12.1 14.8 8.2 20.9 15.0 24.8 10.0 11.3 15.0 19.7 9.5 15.1 4.7 13.2 10.5 28.7 28.1 13.8 9.8 23.5 11.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 15.8 19.3 13.0 9.5 11.9 13.2 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 5.3 10.3 4.7 5.7 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 27.8 70.7 20.0 36.0 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 13.9 114.2 30.3 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 43.4 37.8 22.0 36.7 66.0 17.2 33.6 18.9 14.1 99.6 62.8 141.4 11.5 93.0 218.0 35.1 157.0 12.7 11.2 62.4 85.5 13.3 34.2 102.5 88.0 19.7 205.0 52.6 39.0 87.9 25.5 20.5 79.2 48.9 62.2 33.5 18.3 14.2 19.0 91.7 11.9 62.9 23.2 90.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. I n no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4