GCC Daily Market Update - 21 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 21 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,181.9 18,867.9 4,808.0 6,775.8 10,664.6 4,504.4 75,639.0 17,967.4 22,344.2 3,192.9 26,150.2 (5.2) (35.9) (18.5) (18.9) (21.0) (23.4) 502.7 104.8 81.3 (15.6) (77.4) (0.2) (0.2) (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.5) 0.7 0.6 0.4 (0.5) (0.3) 2.6 4.0 0.1 (2.6) (0.0) (0.1) (3.7) 3.1 (2.6) 3.0 (6.4) 6.7 8.3 4.7 8.5 (0.7) (2.9) 5.5 (5.6) 2.0 (9.8) 0.1 9,780.8 6,570.5 4,221.0 3,301.7 5,507.3 5,521.0 1,181.0 1,488.1 2,865.2 5.8 (58.4) (71.1) (8.1) (4.4) 25.0 0.7 (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 (0.9) (1.7) (0.3) (0.1) 0.5 0.1 (0.0) 0.0 (3.9) 9.3 (1.8) (0.9) 2.0 0.7 2.8 (0.5) (0.8) (6.2) (4.9) (2.0) 4.8 (1.9) 2.1 (2.9) 2.9 2.4 46.9 45.7 2.8 1,208.7 246.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 (8.2) (2.4) 0.8 0.6 5.2 (0.7) (0.9) (1.9) (1.5) (3.1) (5.1) 13.3 27.1 24.6 25.4 14.0 17.0 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks closed on a mixed note on Friday. US stocks retreated, led by declines in Health Care companies and makers of consumer goods. Drug companies fell the most, but small-company stocks continued to surge on prospects of fiscal stimulus from Trump presidency. Increased probability of interest rate hike, post Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony also weighed on the index. Stocks across Europe finished lower as Commodities and Bank shares lost ground. The Stoxx 600 ended 0.4% down weighed by declines in Oil & Gas and Basic Materials sector, which came under pressure as dollar denominated metals and oil prices fell in response to a stronger USD. Asian stocks closed lower amidst increased rate hike prospects, however Japan’s index closed 0.6% higher boosted by weak yen. GCC Gulf stocks ended mixed on Sunday. Saudi Arabia’s index retreated on back of profit booking, with banks leading declines. All but two of the 12 listed lenders closed lower. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark underperformed the regional peers, falling 1.7% as shares of three major banks retreated after they denied speculations of merger going around. Dubai’s index closed 0.3% lower, weighed by fall in large caps. Shuaa Capital, however added 7.5% after it announced that Abu Dhabi Financial Group had carried out a previously announced acquisition of 48.36% of the firm from Dubai Banking Group. Qatar QE index registered marginal gains on Sunday amidst a substantial decline in trade turnover and volumes. Foreign institutions and individuals were net buyers on the bourse, with buying interests in realty, banking and consumer goods sectors. High activity was witnessed in Real estate, Telecom and Banking stocks together constituted about 90% of the total traded. Major movers on the market were Al Khaliji, QNB, Aamal Company, Ezdan and Ooredoo. Out of the 44 stocks listed, 37 exchanged hands, of which, 15 advanced, 15 declined and 7 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.3 1.5 4.2 21.9 DSM 20 14.2 1.5 4.1 18.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.6 1.5 3.6 989.8 UAE (ADX) 10.9 1.3 5.8 110.6 UAE (DFM) 10.8 1.2 4.2 160.4 Kuwait (KSE) 18.7 1.0 4.3 53.8 Oman (MSM) 10.4 1.1 5.2 3.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.7 0.4 4.7 0.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khalij Comm. Bank Al Meera Aamal Co National Leasing QGMD Top Losers Widam Food Co Qatar National Cement United Development Qatar Intl Islamic Mannai Corporation Close Price 18.0 165.4 13.3 14.1 10.1 0.8 3.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.1 (24.8) (4.8) 0.1 (26.4) (10.1) (28.7) (0.2) (8.3) (32.2) 10.9 11.1 54.8 20.9 11.2 13.2 8.1 NA 0.1 NA 60.6 82.3 18.8 60.7 76.5 (1.4) (1.4) (0.2) (0.6) (0.5) (2.3) (1.7) (1.1) (1.0) (0.6) 14.8 (11.2) (9.6) (5.6) (19.7) 21.3 (12.1) (17.3) (15.7) (21.7) 8.1 3.1 59.5 15.9 3.5 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 12.8 10.6 12.1 11.6 7.0 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 24/Aug 30.0 20.0 9,780.8 10.0 0.0 7/Sep 21/Sep 5/Oct Index Volume (mn) 19/Oct 2/Nov 16/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,747.4 5,658.3 3,029.4 4,271.5 2,159.0 1,115.3 2,412.8 1D Change (%) 0.3 0.3 0.1 (0.4) 0.3 0.1 (0.5) Buy (%) 38.9 27.8 66.7 11.8 21.5 33.3 Sell (%) 46.4 23.4 69.8 9.2 21.0 30.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 21 , 2016 construction of a high-speed train, bridging the gap between the cities of Tangier and Kenitra. (Source: Zawya) GLOBAL NEWS  Iranian Oil Minister expressed optimism about an upcoming OPEC meeting and said crude prices could jump to USD 55.0 a barrel if an agreement is reached and non-OPEC producers cooperate. (Source:  UK’s finance minister said that the country's first budget plan since the Brexit vote will not include a big new spending push because of high public debt levels, but will have some help for the economy and struggling households. (Source: Reuters) Shuaa Capital said that Abu Dhabi Financial Group (ADFG) has bought 48.36% stake (515 mn shares) in the company for AED 0.705 per share. The stake was bought by a unit of ADFG from Dubai Banking Group, a subsidiary of Dubai Group. The total value of the transaction is estimated at AED 356mn. (Source: Zawya)  The President of European Central Bank said that the bank will use all the instruments available, until inflation picks up sustainably as the bloc’s weak economy remains clouded by risks and heavily reliant on the central bank’s stimulus. (Source: WSJ) The Chairman of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs announced in a report that Saudi Arabia has made payments totaling SAR 40.0bn (USD 10.6bn) it owed to private companies within the last two weeks. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Japan’s trade surplus expanded 4.7 times to JPY 496.2bn in October16. The value of exports dropped 10.3% YoY to JPY 5.87tn, dragged down by a firming yen, while imports plunged 16.5% YoY reflecting a continued drop in crude oil prices. (Source: Asia Nikkei) Saudi Arabia's National Commercial Bank has cut its quote for threemonth money in the interbank market by quoting three-month SAIBOR at 2.10% on 20th November-16, down from the 2.15% which it had quoted earlier. (Source: Zawya)  Moody’s said that the credit quality of the Asian (excluding Japan) nonfinancial corporates (under its coverage) will remain stable in 2017, supported by steady macro conditions, recovery in commodity prices and adequate market liquidity. (Source: Moody’s) Riyad based Acwa Power along with China-based, Chint Group has been selected by Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy (MASEN) to design, finance, construct, operate and maintain its Noor PV I program in Morocco. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s Ministry of Transport and Communications said in a report that the government has opened eight important road projects across various sectors in the country. The report further stated that the total length of these roads is over 150 km. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman Logistics Company signed several deals in the development of a logistics hub in South Al Batinah Governorate. The deals involved establishment of temperature-controlled warehouses, conventional covered structures and open-yard areas for the storage of goods Reuters)       Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said that export-oriented Asian economies should respond to the sharp slowdown in global trade in the last few years by boosting demand for goods and services within their own borders. The governor added that by doing so they would also lift the world economy. (Source: Reuters) Federal Reserve policymaker- Robert Kaplan said that that China's economic growth will likely decline and said he expects future bouts of weakness in CNY as a result. (Source: Reuters) (Source: Trade Arabia)  GCC NEWS  The value of non-oil trade between Dubai and India stood at about AED 48.0bn (USD 13.0bn) in H1-16, accounting for 7.0% of the UAE’s total non-oil foreign trade during the period, Dubai Customs said. QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s Producer Price Index increased 3.7% QoQ to reach 45.1 points in Q2-16, with Manufacturing sector leading sectoral growth at 5.4% QoQ. The prices for the Mining group (72.7% weightage in the PPI basket) increased by 3.2% QoQ due to growth in oil and natural gas prices. (Source: MDPS)  Sri Lanka is keen on seeking Qatari investment in tourism, power and health sectors speaking in Business and Investment Forum held at Doha Bank headquarters, according to Minister of City Planning and Water Supply. (Source: Gulf Times)  The bilateral trade between Qatar and China reached QAR 21.5 bn in 2015. The trade between the two countries has reached QAR 17.7 bn so far in 2016, according to Li Chen, Chinese Ambassador to Qatar. (Source: Trade Arabia)    The rate of decline in Dubai’s average residential rent values is expected to slow heading into 2017, before reaching a new base towards the end of 2017, as the value is down 7.4% during the past 12 months, according to a report by Cluttons. (Source: Trade Arabia) The number of building and construction sector companies registered in Dubai’s Jebel Ali Free Zone (Jafza) increased by 14% from June-15 to June-16. The growth was driven by the continued focus of the GCC countries on developing infrastructure and by the economic stimulus generated by Expo 2020 projects. (Source: Trade Arabia) Reidin, a real estate information company announced two new time series- Housing Affordability Index (HAI) and Rental Affordability Index (RAI) for Dubai markets. HAI is aimed at measuring the affordability in buying a median-price house in Dubai by a middle-income family. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar and Indonesia signed a MoU on judicial co-operation in the fields of training, exchange of expertise and consultations on the best practices in litigation management. (Source: Gulf Times)  The income derived from services to non-residents (visitors) in Qatar rose at an annual growth rate of 44.9% to QAR 54.6bn in 2015 from QAR 11.0bn in 2010, according to a report by the Ministry of Economy and Commerce. (Source: Gulf Times)  Gulf Warehousing Company (GWC) the leading logistics provider in Qatar, was presented the Enterprise Agility Award 2016 for Logistics Innovation at a ceremony organized by BNC publishing and held at The Grand Hyatt in Doha. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Chamber initiated discussions with a Swiss business delegation means to promote trade exchange, especially in the fields of banking and healthcare. (Source: The Peninsula) (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Agency of the Department of Economic Development in Dubai won contracts worth AED 17.0mn during H1-16 under a partnership between the agency and Dubai Holding. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai Civil Aviation Authority signed a MoU with Emirates to explore opportunities for collaboration in innovation and development across a number of areas that will contribute to the aviation sector both in the UAE as well as regionally. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi Fund for Development signed a concessionary loan agreement worth AED 147.0mn with the Office Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Maroc, Morocco’s national railway operator to finance the Several local and foreign private sector companies in Oman signed land usufruct agreements to set up a number of projects worth more than OMR 800.0mn (USD 2.1bn) in 2016 at Oman’s Special Economic Zone Authority in Duqm. (Source: Trade Arabia) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 21 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0618 USD/QAR 3.6413 110.9100 EUR/QAR 3.8663 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2372 JPY/QAR 0.0328 USD/CHF 1.0101 GBP/QAR 4.5050 USD/CAD 1.3505 CHF/QAR 3.6049 AUD/USD 0.7338 CAD/QAR 2.6963 NZD/USD 0.7010 AUD/QAR 2.6720 USD/INR 67.6375 INR/QAR 0.0538 USD/TRY 3.3683 TRY/QAR 1.0810 USD/ZAR 14.4222 ZAR/QAR 0.2525 USD/BRL 3.3818 BRL/QAR 1.0767 FX Commentary USD rose against a basket of currencies on Friday with dollar index up 0.4% as expectations of interest rate hike strongly increased post hawkish stance by Fed Chair at the Congressional Testimony. The dollar got further support after Fed policy maker- William Dudley solidified expectations of interest rate hike in December. CAD weakened slightly against its US counterpart due to broader gains in USD and data showing cooler domestic core inflation. The downside was however limited by higher oil prices for the day. GBP fell against greenback following PM May’s assurance that Brexit process is on track to start by March-17. German Finance Minister’s comment that UK might have to financially contribute to EU for up to a decade post Brexit further weakened the currency. ECB President Mario Draghi’s dovish stance on monetary policy led to the fall in EUR. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.57 0.92 1.62 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.08) QAIBOR 1.15 1.25 1.42 1.71 2.13 SAIBOR NA NA 1.91 2.13 2.50 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year EIBOR 0.37 0.49 0.72 1.40 2.00 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.50 1.88 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.42% 4.0% 2.31% 2.0% 2.74% 1.95% 2.30% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 3.03% 0.78% 1.53% 0.65% 0.0% 2.74% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.0 7.8 Turkey 295.8 20.1 UK 39.0 3.5 Brazil 311.9 (30.8) Germany 23.5 4.8 Egypt 481.2 0.7 France 40.1 (1.7) Abu Dhabi 71.6 (23.5) Italy 171.9 43.6 Bahrain 389.6 17.7 Greece 957.3 (95.3) Dubai 165.0 (45.0) Russia 233.2 (24.8) Qatar 93.5 (8.3) Japan 33.0 (4.0) Saudi Arabia 135.5 (18.2) 2.0% 2.53% 1.30% 1.83% 1.58% 2.19% 2.00% 1.80% 1.0% 2.09% 2.46% 0.96% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 7:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Sep 0.00% 0.20% 8:00 Japan Supermarket Sales YoY Oct - (3.20%) 10:00 Japan Convenience Store Sales YoY Oct - 0.00% 16:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct 0.00 (0.14) 16:30 Canada Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Sep 0.50% 0.80% 18:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Nov-18th - 55.6 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 0.01 (27.7) (49.6) (0.04) NA NA Intl Financial Advisors NA NA NA (0.5) NA NA Kuwait Finance & Investment NA NA NA 0.1 (38.2) (71.2) Kuwait Cable Vision Sak Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 21 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.1 0.0 9.0 1.9 5.8 5.2 3.6 0.0 4.3 6.5 1.9 6.1 3.5 6.5 8.2 5.6 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.3 4.4 5.3 5.9 7.3 3.4 4.8 4.6 3.6 2.3 7.1 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.4 2.3 3.1 8.2 2.8 7.3 3.3 2.3 7.9 4.6 3.3 2.2 3.0 2.3 5.5 5.8 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.9 2.2 1.0 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 2.4 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.8 3.9 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 17.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.6 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.0 11.7 10.5 27.2 11.0 7.1 19.7 20.0 13.5 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 13.1 5.6 11.0 13.1 32.3 18.8 18.6 14.3 23.6 10.1 10.8 17.2 17.1 9.5 18.7 4.0 12.0 11.6 11.9 22.9 14.1 12.3 17.7 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.8 15.7 13.1 11.0 12.4 13.3 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 33.0 20.7 33.3 54.8 17.2 33.5 13.9 9.9 100.0 61.3 152.1 9.9 77.0 60.8 162.0 28.1 141.5 10.0 10.8 62.0 76.0 13.1 29.3 104.0 15.2 207.0 54.3 42.0 83.7 19.9 18.7 82.1 44.6 48.6 30.0 15.0 12.1 19.0 91.9 9.7 53.5 23.0 85.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4