GCC Weekly Wrap - 10 December

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP December 10 , 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS 1.00% 1.00% 0.90% (1.40%) (0.90%) 3Q F 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Dec-01st - 430.6b 430.2b US Initial Jobless Claims Dec-02nd 240k 236k 238k Japan BoP Current A/c. Balance Japan GDP SA QoQ 3Q F 0.40% 0.60% 0.30% Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ 3Q F 1.50% 2.50% 1.40% US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 195k 228k 244k US U. of Mich. Sentiment Dec P 99.0 96.8 98.5 Oct ¥1,721.0b ¥2,176.4b ¥2,271.2b Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS  US trade deficit rose by 8.5% MoM to USD 48.7bn in Oct-17 driven by a 1.6% increase in the value of imports. (Source: Nasdaq)  US non-farm payroll employment rose more-than-expected by 228,000 jobs in Nov-17 as compared to an increase of 244,000 in Oct17. (Source: Nasdaq) Source: Bloomberg  Saudi Arabia’s government is planning to award contracts worth SAR 1.4bn for the development of key museum and heritage projects across the nation. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia is building 17.6 gigawatts of nuclear-fueled power generation capacity by 2032, sources aware of the matter said. (Source: Reuters)  S&P lowered Bahrain’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to ‘B+’ from ‘BB-‘ led by Bahrain’s weak external liquidity and increasing financial risk. (Source: BNA) Moody’s have affirmed its A1’s local and foreign currency issuer ratings and local currency senior unsecured rating for Japan with stable outlook. (Source: Moody’s)  Bahraini companies signed USD 10.0bn in trade agreements with US companies in energy, aviation and commerce sectors during a recent visit by the Crown Prince to the US. (Source: BNA) Australia's central bank has kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.5%.  The Central Bank of Bahrain’s monthly issue of the Government Treasury Bills worth BHD 70.0mn, which has a maturity of 91 days has been fully subscribed with average interest rate of 2.84%. (Source: CBB)  Kuwait’s total real estate sales rose by 46.0% YoY to KWD 216.9mn in Oct-17 driven by strong growth in commercial and residential sector sales. (Source: Gulf Base)  Eurozone PPI rose by 2.5% YoY in Oct-17, compared to 2.8% YoY rise reported in the previous month. (Source: RTT News)   (Source: Market Insider)  Australia's GDP rose by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.6% QoQ and 2.8% YoY in Q3-17. (Source: Market Insider)  Australia’s current account deficit surged by 6.0% QoQ in Q3-17 and stood at AUD 9.125bn. (Source: RTT News)  RBI left its repo rate on hold at 6.0%, in order to maintain its focus to control inflationary environment in the nation. (Source: Moneycontrol)  The annual inflation in Turkey reached 13.0% in Nov-17, led by 18.6% YoY rise in transportation prices and 15.8% YoY rise in food and nonalcoholic beverage prices. (Source: AA)  Turkey's exports during eleven months ending Nov-17 rose 10.7% YoY to USD 142.7bn. In Nov-17, the exports rose by 14.2% YoY to USD 13.6bn. (Source: AA) QATAR NEWS  Equity Index compiler, MSCI said that it would continue to use onshore foreign exchange rates to value Qatari stocks, instead of offshore rates. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar central bank’s international reserves and foreign currency liquidity rose to USD 36.1bn in Oct-17 from USD 35.6bn in Sep-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatar Central Bank’s governor stated that the central bank has adequate reserves to defend the Qatari riyal as its international reserves are twice its monetary base. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s conventional banks reported more than 16.0% YoY expansion in credit to QAR 651.4bn in Oct-17 compared to overall 14.0% credit growth in the Qatari banks. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar crude oil prices rose by 9.8% MoM to USD 63.0 per barrel and the price of offshore oil prices rose by 10.1% MoM to USD 61.45 a barrel during Nov-17. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The Ministry of Economy and Commerce has registered 2,429 new companies in Nov-17. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar International Islamic Bank is planning to issue USD denominated benchmark sukuk in Feb-18, which would be the first debt sale under a USD 2.0bn sukuk programme. (Source: Zawya)  Doha bank has sold international bonds worth JPY 2.5bn at a par value with an average inititial coupon of 0.65%. The bond matures in 2019. GCC NEWS  Moody’s has reiterated its “Stable” outlook for GCC’s banking sector due to strong financial fundamentals. (Source: Moody’s)  UAE Central Bank’s total current account balances and deposits with foreign banks rose by 54.7% YoY to AED 228.7bn during first 10 months of 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE Central Bank's reserve of gold bars rose by 11.2% YoY to AED 1.1bn in Oct-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Tunisia are planning to sell their combined 77.8% stake in Banque de Tunisie et des Emirats bank by launching a tender next week. (Source: Zawya)  2.31 04-Dec 1.00% Oct 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.20 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.00 27-Nov 2.70% 20-Nov 2.50% 13-Nov 2.50% Dec-06th 06-Nov Nov UST 10yr Bond 30-Oct Eurozone GDP SA QoQ (1.20%) 23-Oct BoC Rate Decision Germany Industrial Prodn. SA MoM Prior (0.80%) 16-Oct Canada Actual (1.10%) 09-Oct CPI YoY Survey Oct F 02-Oct Russia Period 25-Sep Durable Goods Orders 18-Sep Event US 11-Sep Region Saudi Arabia based 22 companies have signed 18 partnership agreements with Iraqi government to develop several key projects in the energy sector across Iraq. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Global Capital) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP December 10 , 2017 EQUITY Index Price S&P 500 WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY Index Price WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 2,651.5 0.4 3.0 18.4 MSCI EM 1,110.8 (0.5) (0.7) 28.8 24,329.2 0.4 4.1 23.1 S&P GCC 1,538.2 0.2 (5.2) (2.1) Nasdaq 6,344.6 0.1 1.5 30.4 Dow Jones Islamic 3,576.6 (0.1) 1.4 23.1 FTSE 100 7,394.0 1.3 (1.3) 3.5 KSA (TASI) 7,085.5 1.2 2.2 (1.7) DAX 30 13,153.7 2.3 (0.6) 14.6 UAE (DFM) 3,393.5 (0.8) (6.7) (3.9) CAC 40 5,399.1 1.5 (1.9) 11.0 UAE (ADX) 4,276.9 (0.1) (4.5) (5.9) 107,921.3 4.2 (2.0) 38.1 Qatar (DSM) 7,773.6 0.8 (4.8) (25.5) 7.6 DJIA BIST 100 Nikkei 22,811.1 (0.0) 3.6 19.3 Kuwait (KSE) 6,186.9 (0.2) (5.0) Sh. Comp 3,290.0 (0.8) (3.0) 6.0 Bahrain (BAX) 1,267.4 (1.3) (0.7) 3.8 Hang Seng 28,639.9 (1.5) 1.4 30.2 Oman (MSM) 5,066.1 (0.9) 1.1 (12.4) Sensex 33,250.3 1.3 0.1 24.9 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,108.7 (0.6) 0.7 (2.8) Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 4.2 BIST 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 FTSE 100 Sensex DJIA S&P 500 Nasdaq Nikkei (0.0) MSCI EM (0.5) Jordan (ASEGI) (0.6) Sh. Comp (0.8) Hang Seng (1.5) (2.0) 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 4.0 (10.0) 6.0 Source: Bloomberg 30.4 30.2 28.8 24.9 23.1 19.3 18.4 14.6 11.0 6.0 3.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) KSA (TASI) 1.2 Qatar (DSM) S&P GCC 23.1 7.6 Bahrain (BAX) 0.2 Dow Jones Islamic Dow Jones Islamic Kuwait (KSE) 0.8 3.8 KSA (TASI) (0.1) UAE (ADX) (0.1) S&P GCC Kuwait (KSE) (0.2) UAE (DFM) UAE (DFM) (0.8) UAE (ADX) Oman (MSM) (0.9) Oman (MSM) (1.7) (2.1) (3.9) (5.9) (12.4) Qatar (DSM) (25.5) Bahrain (BAX) (1.3) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 (30.0) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 1.5 Source: Bloomberg 10.0 20.0 Equity markets across the Atlantic inched higher during the last week, following reports that the Senators provided approval for their version of the tax bill. The US markets closed higher as domestic data released during the week, supported the domestic indices, as the US GDP and jobs data exceeded market expectations. Financial and Industrial shares were among the leading gainers, however, losses in several Technology blue chip and Energy stocks, capped broad market gains. Equity markets in Europe also found support during the latter half of the week, after the UK clinched a Brexit deal with EU lawmakers. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 1.4% during the last week, while the FTSE 100 index rose 1.3%. The Hang Seng index inched lower, on the back of weakness in Technology shares. GCC 38.1 BIST 100 Nasdaq Hang Seng MSCI EM Sensex DJIA Nikkei S&P 500 DAX 30 CAC 40 Sh. Comp FTSE 100 Jordan (ASEGI) (2.8) 2.3 Global Most GCC markets edged lower during the last week, amidst heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding Yemen and Qatar. In Saudi Arabia, National Industrialization dropped 4.9%, after the US Federal Trade Commission filed a complaint about the acquisition of the company’s affiliate by Tronox Ltd. Saudi Industrial Export soared 9.1%, after the capital market authority approved the company’s request for a capital reduction. The Bahraini index underperformed its peer indices on the back of losses in Investment and Industrial shares. Qatar The QE index rose 0.8%, on the back of reports that index compiler MSCI, would use onshore exchange rates for valuing Qatari stocks in its index, which would prevent in expected reduction Qatari equities in the index. Foreign retail and institutional investors were among the net buyers during the last week’s trading session. Total trading value and volume declined during the last week, with Banking and Industrial shares accounting for 53.4% of the total trading volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 29 advanced and 16 declined. 30.0 Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 10,900 10,400 9,900 9,400 8,900 8,400 7,900 7,400 Jun-17 7,773.6 Jul-17 Index Sep-17 50 SMA 100 SMA Oct-17 200 SMA Dec-17 Indicator Price Last Close 7,773.6 MAVG 50 8,019.3 MAVG 100 8,503.4 MAVG 200 9,256.4 6 Month High 9,594.5 6 Month Low 7,714.3 RSI (14 Days) 41.6 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP December 10 , 2017 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 3.00 3.00 1.89 2.28 3.53 3.28 3.03 2.00 2.12 1.00 0.50 4.38 3.50 3.16 2.47 2.26 1.50 4.00 2.77 1.80 4.62 3.90 2.38 2.29 2.14 2.50 2.00 5.00 3.15 1.00 1.14 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 2 Yrs 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg CDS 5 Years CDS 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Global US 28.3 0.0 (1.0) (2.7) UK 21.8 0.3 (0.8) (11.2) Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGS 2018 100.0 45.6 1.95 0.0 (0.4) QGIB 2019 105.6 32.6 2.12 (0.1) (4.5) QGIB 2020 105.4 59.1 2.55 (0.0) (2.7) Qatari Diar 2020 98.2 78.8 2.87 (0.0) 0.1 Germany 11.6 0.0 (0.3) (12.6) QGIB 2021 105.1 91.5 2.92 0.1 (2.4) France 18.6 0.0 (0.2) (20.8) QGIB 2022 105.7 85.9 2.97 0.1 (1.6) Italy 117.9 (0.6) (1.2) (46.3) QGS 2023 99.4 115.5 3.32 (0.1) (3.0) 97.9 120.2 3.52 0.4 1.1 Greece 476.4 (7.9) (6.7) (666.5) QGIB 2026 Russia 132.8 0.0 2.9 (102.5) QGIB 2030 156.2 159.1 3.97 (0.0) 0.7 Japan 31.4 (0.6) (2.3) (3.5) QGIB 2040 128.4 185.9 4.36 0.1 2.9 QGIB 2042 120.3 184.4 4.36 0.0 3.2 QGIB 2046 104.3 181.5 4.35 0.4 3.7 Turkey 202.4 (6.5) (16.5) (88.4) Brazil 172.4 0.0 (3.8) (114.4) Egypt 359.6 (0.9) (0.9) (100.6) Abu Dhabi 64.3 5.4 4.6 5.6 Bahrain 281.9 8.8 6.7 (21.8) Dubai 131.3 3.8 (11.7) (18.9) Qatar 105.4 3.9 1.6 Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates GCC Tenor Saudi Arabia 90.4 7.2 6.8 Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 1.536 0.041 0.538 6M LIBOR 1.723 0.048 0.405 12M LIBOR 1.997 0.037 0.312 14.3 2 years 1.997 0.038 0.540 8.9 5 years 2.203 0.029 0.226 10 years 2.388 0.025 0.050 30 years 2.566 0.017 (0.029) International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 46.8 (2.2) (2.4) (26.0) iTraxx Europe Crossover 232.2 1.5 1.1 (59.2) CDX North America IG 51.0 (1.8) (1.5) (16.8) CDX North America HY 316.0 (1.6) (1.2) (38.1) iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 14.8 (4.1) (3.4) (55.2) iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 15.4 (7.2) (6.5) (109.3) Source: Bloomberg Commentary US Treasury yields ended higher last week, supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data and substantial progress in US tax-cut reforms after passage through Senate. The yields were also supported by optimistic comments about the US economy from US Fed Chair Janet Yellen. UK gilt yields edged higher as Brexit negotiations made a breakthrough. Eurozone government bond yields declined, weighed by downbeat Eurozone inflation data in Oct-17. Yields on German bunds fell as appetite for debt boosted on anticipation of increased buying by the ECB. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP December 10 , 2017 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 63.4 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 57.4 Oil prices ended lower last week, weighed by a sharp rise in US refined fuel inventories, indicating lagging demand. The prices were however supported by fears of supply disruptions on account of a threatened strike in Nigeria, growing Middle East political tensions and expectations of increased crude demand from China. Natural gas prices slumped, weighed by unexpected rise in natural gas inventories reported by EIA. Copper prices declined as Indonesia planned to acquire Rio Tinto's, stake in the Grasberg copper mine, potentially solving a drawn-out problem, however the prices were supported by strong import data from China. Gold prices ended lower amidst strength in USD, as optimism increased after progress in US tax reforms. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.8 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,245.2 Silver (USD/t oz.) 15.7 Copper (USD/lb) 295.5 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Brent Copper (0.5) WTI Crude Gold 8.1 WTI Crude (3.4) Copper 11.6 Gold (2.6) Silver 17.9 Brent (1.7) 6.8 Silver (3.6) Natural Gas (9.4) (1.6) Natural Gas(25.6) (10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 (30.0) Source: Bloomberg (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.3420 USD/INR 63.9550 EUR/USD 1.1803 USD/CNY 6.6209 CAD/USD 0.7782 USD/TRY 3.8353 AUD/USD 0.7509 USD/EGP 17.7591 0.6847 USD/ZAR 13.6672 113.4800 USD/RUB 59.1269 NZD/USD USD/JPY Commentary USD strengthened against its major peers this week, buoyed by progress in US tax reforms and greater than expected rise in US non-farm payrolls in Nov-17, showing recovery in post-hurricane hit US economy. GBP ended lower as cautious investors booked profits after a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations. EUR fell against the stronger USD, after data showed subdued inflation for Oct-17. CAD slumped after the Bank of Canada took cautious stance over the future rate hikes in the country, while leaving its lending rate unchanged. AUD declined as subdued Australian GDP data weighed on the currency. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) TRY ZAR INR RUB CNY NZD GBP EGP EUR JPY CAD AUD (2.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) EUR GBP INR CNY CAD AUD RUB JPY EGP ZAR NZD TRY 2.0 0.6 0.1 (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (1.0) (1.1) (1.3) (1.4) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 11.9 8.5 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.1 1.8 0.6 (1.3) (8.2) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4