GCC Daily Market Update - 18 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 18 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,080.7 17,897.5 4,543.2 6,343.8 10,051.6 4,495.2 85,573.3 16,848.0 21,316.5 3,078.1 25,626.8 (2.1) (29.0) (11.5) (21.4) (42.1) (16.3) (211.7) (63.0) (21.3) (4.2) NA (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) (0.4) (0.1) (0.1) NA 1.0 1.2 1.3 2.7 0.9 2.5 2.8 0.5 2.6 2.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 (1.1) 1.6 (6.4) (3.1) 19.3 (11.5) (2.7) (13.0) (1.9) 10,189.2 6,412.4 4,555.6 3,521.5 5,316.5 5,735.2 1,123.3 1,517.5 2,862.7 (49.0) (96.7) 20.7 (25.4) 16.0 (25.3) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.5) (1.5) 0.5 (0.7) 0.3 (0.4) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 (1.8) 3.0 3.8 4.9 1.7 4.9 (0.7) 1.9 1.6 (2.3) (7.2) 5.8 11.8 (5.3) 6.1 (7.6) 4.9 2.0 43.1 40.4 1.9 1,233.1 215.3 (0.7) (1.1) (0.1) 8.1 (1.8) (1.7) (2.8) (3.5) 0.7 (0.8) 4.1 0.2 (3.1) (0.1) (1.6) 10.6 3.7 (18.8) 16.3 0.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets edged marginally lower on Friday, as China’s GDP grew at its slowest pace in 7 years. Uncertainty ahead of the key producers meet in Doha also dragged major indices as investors booked profits. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark closed 0.4% lower, as safe haven yen rallied on a global sell-off. Temporary suspension of operations by several companies on account of an earthquake also weighed on the index. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended 0.35% in red on global concerns. Auto stocks pressured the broader index despite data showing a growth in new car sales. US indices closed marginally lower weighed by Energy stocks, which fell 1.3% due to drop in oil prices. Index major Apple also impacted the broader index, following a Nikkei report which stated that the company will continue its reduced production of iPhones in light of sluggish sales. GCC GCC markets ended on a mixed note on Sunday, mainly due to uncertainty at talks among oil producers in Doha meeting. Saudi Arabia's index closed 1.5% lower, falling back from a three-month high hit on Thursday. Petchem major SABIC closed 1.0% lower, however Kayan Petrochemical jumped 2.9% after reporting a lower than expected loss. Dubai's index closed 0.7% in red as local investors cashed out of mid to large cap stocks. Emaar Properties and Dubai Financial Market fell 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark advanced 0.5%, mainly led by the sessions heaviest traded stock, Dana Gas which closed 3.6% higher. Qatar QE index slipped 0.5% on caution surrounding the OPEC & Non OPEC meet on production freeze. Foreign institution’s substantially lower buying interests and increased net selling by local retail investors dragged the broader index. All the sectors ended in red, with losses pro-eminent in Real Estate (-0.9%), Industrials (-0.6%) & Consumer Goods (-0.5%) sector. Out of the 43 companies listed, 38 exchanged hands, of which 9 advanced, 26 declined and 3 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.2 1.2 4.2 42.9 10,400 DSM 20 12.3 1.2 4.3 22.9 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.6 1.5 4.0 1,377.3 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.5 5.4 48.3 8,900 UAE (DFM) 12.0 1.3 3.5 100.8 Kuwait (KSE) 16.7 1.0 4.8 41.0 Oman (MSM) 13.0 1.3 4.6 7.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.6 0.6 4.9 0.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers QGRI Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar Islamic Insurance Dlala Holding National Leasing Top Losers QIIK Gulf Intl. Services QEWS Vodafone Qatar United Devpt. Co Close Price 49.0 39.0 65.9 18.2 19.0 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 2.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 5.5 (15.1) (8.5) (1.7) 35.0 (4.1) 0.6 4.6 (31.7) 46.5 10.2 (18.6) 6.8 12.0 (40.7) 82.7 NA (11.9) 1,558.7 NA 63.1 36.1 204.0 12.4 19.2 (2.0) (0.8) (4.0) (0.2) (0.3) (3.1) (2.0) (1.9) (1.8) (1.7) (1.9) (29.9) (5.7) (2.4) (7.4) (22.1) (57.8) 5.5 (30.7) (11.1) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 7.7 12.2 358.9 8.4 3.5 14.9 258.0 NA 75.0 9.9 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 8,400 20/Jan 20.0 10,189.2 10.0 0.0 3/Feb 17/Feb 2/Mar Index Volume (mn) 16/Mar 30/Mar 13/Apr Index Value Closing Level 2,747.3 6,707.7 3,146.4 4,463.5 2,526.8 1,165.7 2,529.1 1D Change (%) (0.0) (0.5) (0.6) (0.2) (0.9) (0.4) (0.2) Buy (%) 50.1 11.0 61.1 21.9 17.0 38.9 Sell (%) 58.2 15.2 73.4 22.8 3.8 26.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 18 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS    US industrial production fell by 0.6% MoM in March-16. The expected decline was partly due to the steep drop in mining output, which plunged by 2.9% MoM in March-16 after slumping by 1.0% MoM in February-16. (Source: RTT) Consumer sentiment in US has unexpectedly deteriorated in the month of April-16. The consumer sentiment index for April-16 came in at 89.7 compared to the March-16 reading of 91.0. It was expected to inch up to 92.0. (Source: RTT)  Oman’s Bank Muscat reported an increase of 1.1% in Q1-16 net profit to OMR 43.8mn as compared to OMR 43.3mn in Q1-15. Net loans & advances increased by 6.9% to OMR 6,917mn and customer deposits increased by 7% to OMR 6,974mn as on March-16. (Source: Muscat Daily)  Oman Telecommunications (Omantel) reported a 0.6% rise in Q1-16 net profit to OMR 34.8mn compared with a net profit of OMR 34.6mn in the corresponding period last year. Group’s revenue grew 4.7% to OMR 135.5mn in Q1-16 from OMR 129.4mn in Q1-15. (Source: Times Of Oman)  National Bank of Oman posted a 10% rise in Q1-16 net profit to OMR 13.9mn (USD 36.1mn) from OMR 12.6mn in Q1-15. Loans & advances rose by 10% YoY to OMR 2.6bn while customer deposits fell by 2% to OMR 2.4bn as on March-16. (Source: Gulf Times) Turkey's unemployment rate increased less-than-expected in January16. The unadjusted jobless rate climbed to 11.1% in January-16 from 10.8% in the preceding month. The number of unemployed people grew to 3.29mn in January-16 from 3.20mn in December-15. (Source:  Ooredoo Oman reported a 17.8% rise in Q1-16 net profit to OMR 12.6mn (USD 32.8mn) as compared to OMR 10.7mn in Q1-15. Its Q116 revenue was OMR 66.1mn compared with OMR 59.3mn a year earlier. (Source: Gulf Times) HDN)  National Bank of Kuwait reported a fall of 18.2% in net profit to KWD 78.9mn (USD 261.6mn) in Q1-16 as compared to KWD 96.5mn a year earlier. Bank’s total assets were KWD 24.7bn inQ1-16, up 5.8% YoY. China's GDP expanded 6.7% YoY in Q1-16. The economy grew 1.1% in Q1-16 from the prior quarter, the slowest QoQ expansion since 2011. (Source: Bloomberg)  GCC NEWS (Source: Arabian Business)  A summit in Doha between the world's largest oil producing countries ended without an agreement, as country leaders failed to strike a deal to freeze output. The failure of the summit could also lead to a renewed drop in crude prices. (Source: CNBC)  The Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange has agreed with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to co-operate on product development. The collaboration would pave way for transactions to be cleared in the yuan and attract more interest from Chinese investors. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai’s market for apparel and footwear is estimated to reach USD 13.5bn in 2016, and is on track to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% until 2020, according to the Dubai Chamber of Commerce & Industry. The market, estimated to be currently worth USD 12.8bn, has been registering 5.5% annual growth in sales since 2010. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Qatar Finance and Business Academy is planning to launch a new programme that focuses on innovation and entrepreneurship, QFBA CEO said. The course offers actual case studies, examples, and exercises based on Qatari and other GCC companies. It will also involve coaching from entrepreneurs. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai Investments has announced that it is expecting to add around AED 20bn (USD 5.4bn) in assets over the next 3-5 years and is seeking new growth opportunities in sectors including Healthcare and Education. (Source: Arabian Business) A Qatari delegation headed by the Minister of Finance took part in the Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, which is currently going on in Washington DC. The agenda of meetings is to discuss key issues relating to the world economic outlook. (Source: Gulf  Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Undersecretary of State stated that there are synergistic opportunities between Qatar and Poland. The complementarity of the economies of Poland and Qatar determines huge potential for achieving synergies in many sectors including Energy, Investment, Real Estate, Transportation, and Tourism. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Prime Minister & Interior Minister inaugurated the first phase of Imdad project, which aims to develop a national information system to achieve sustainability of the economic and urbanization levels in Qatar. The project provides a mechanism based on demand that enables the State to maintain a surplus of strategic goods at all times.    Sharjah Investment Center (SIC) signed AED 126.5mn deal with Scan Electromechanical Contracting Company for the installation of a power plant over an area of 32mn square feet in a strategic location in Al Arqoub near Sharjah International Airport. (Source: The Gulf Today)  Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co. (Yasref), owned 62.5% by Aramco and the rest by China's Sinopec, has obtained USD 4.7bn unsecured loan from 26 local, regional and international financial institutions, and was oversubscribed. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s National Commercial Bank reported a 1% rise in Q1-16 net profit to SAR 2.6bn (USD 701.5mn). Deposits sank 4.9% YoY to SAR 326.1bn while loans & advances were up 16.8% YoY to SAR 265.3bn at the end of March-16. (Source: Reuters)    Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company made a net loss of SAR 216.3 mn (USD 57.7mn) in Q1-16 as compared to a net loss of SAR 591.6mn in the same period of 2015. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Hollandi Bank posted a 5.1% fall in Q1-16 net profit to SAR 511.5mn (USD 136.5mn) from SAR 538.9mn in Q1-15. Bank’s loans portfolio rose by 16.7% YoY to reach SAR 78.4bn at the end of March16. The deposit base gained 9.7% YoY to SAR 85.6bn. (Source: Reuters) Oman’s inflation increased by 0.11% YoY during March-16, according to the National Centre for Statistics & Information. Whereas, the inflation rate also dropped by 0.31% compared to February-16. (Source:  Kuwait's parliament passed a bill allowing the government to raise power and water charges for foreign residents and on businesses but exempted the Gulf state's citizens. (Source: Khaleej times) QATAR NEWS Times) (Source: Zawya)  CVC Capital Partners, Qatar's QIA and Canada's Brookfield have calledoff a secret plan to bid for British supermarket group J. Sainsbury. The trio dropped a planned takeover after Sainsbury made a GBP 1.4bn (USD 2bn) bid for Home Retail Group, the owner of Argos. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar Stock Exchange has announced trading suspension on Widam Food Company shares on 17 April-16 due to its AGM being held on that day. (Source: QSE)  Qatar Stock Exchange has announced trading suspension on Qatar German for Medical Devices Company shares on 17 April-16 due to its AGM being held on that day. (Source: QSE)  Qatar Stock Exchange has announced trading suspension on Aamal Company shares on 17 April-16 due to its AGM and EGM being held on that day. (Source: QSE) Times Of Oman) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 18 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1314 USD/QAR 3.6416 108.7600 EUR/QAR 4.1201 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4232 JPY/QAR 0.0335 USD/CHF 0.9679 GBP/QAR 5.1827 USD/CAD 1.2822 CHF/QAR 3.7624 AUD/USD 0.7725 CAD/QAR 2.8401 NZD/USD 0.6919 AUD/QAR 2.8131 USD/INR 66.1450 INR/QAR 0.0551 USD/TRY 2.8547 TRY/QAR 1.2757 USD/ZAR 14.5545 ZAR/QAR 0.2502 USD/BRL 3.5321 BRL/QAR 1.0310 FX Commentary The US dollar fell against major currencies on Friday, weighed by lower oil prices ahead of a weekend meeting among major oil producers in Doha and a weak US consumer sentiment data that reduced investors’ risk appetite, driving them towards safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment stood at 89.7 for April, lower than the forecast of 92. The USD had the biggest daily loss against the JPY since April 7, falling 0.6%. Also, the EUR rose about 0.2% against the greenback. The CAD was marginally up against its US counterpart as investors kept their eyes on the key global events. The dollar index that measures the strength of the USD against a basket of currencies, was last trading about 0.2% lower at 94.683. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.38 0.40 0.44 0.63 1.22 (0.39) (0.36) (0.34) (0.25) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.06 1.17 1.34 1.50 1.85 SAIBOR NA NA 1.65 1.91 2.14 EIBOR 0.25 0.35 0.68 1.02 1.59 BMIBOR 0.45 0.65 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.13% 5.0% 2.00% 2.47% 2.47% 1.40% 1.68% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.00% 0.0% 2.53% 0.58% 1.09% 5 Yrs 2 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 20.6 3.1 Turkey 245.7 (11.9) UK 42.5 25.2 Brazil 343.7 (98.3) Germany 18.4 4.6 Egypt 453.2 99.8 France 35.1 3.5 Abu Dhabi 83.8 15.3 133.9 17.5 Bahrain 369.7 72.2 2.33% 1.0% 1.96% 1.72% 1.47% 2.0% 2.07% 0.84% 0.77% 1.58% 1.34% 1.14% Italy Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1124.19 (2.0) Dubai 209.3 22.3 Russia 273.3 (15.3) Qatar 85.7 18.2 Japan 42.1 0.1 144.7 16.7 Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 15:30 Canada Int'l Securities Transactions 17:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 17:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index Period Survey Prior Feb -- 13.51b Apr-15th -- 55 Apr 59 58 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Al Rajhi Bank NA NA NA 2,017.0 32.8 3.5 National Bank Of Kuwait NA NA NA 78.9 (18.2) 45.5 Saudi Arabian Mining Co NA NA NA 168.9 (35.3) (3,076.2) Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Co NA NA NA 286.0 (51.5) (24.4) Arab National Bank NA NA NA 749.2 (2.8) 26.1 Saudi Hollandi Bank NA NA NA 511.5 (5.1) 13.3 135.5 4.7 3.3 34.8 0.7 (186.0) NA NA NA 9.1 23.4 (9.7) 131.2 7.6 2.4 43.7 1.0 11.6 NA NA NA (216.3) (63.4) (65.3) 66.1 11.4 1.3 12.6 18.2 35.5 Oman Telecommunications Co Boubyan Bank K.S.C Bank Muscat Saog Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co Ooredoo Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 18 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 14th April 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 7.8 0.0 8.2 1.4 5.5 5.0 2.7 4.2 6.1 2.1 5.0 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 0.0 8.3 4.4 4.4 4.8 7.2 2.7 4.7 5.5 3.7 3.6 2.4 7.9 3.7 4.3 3.8 5.3 2.7 2.9 6.1 3.0 6.3 2.8 1.8 7.7 3.9 3.3 1.7 2.9 1.9 5.3 5.6 5.0 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 2.0 0.7 1.9 1.0 7.1 1.1 2.2 0.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.7 3.0 2.9 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.8 4.2 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.1 2.7 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.9 2.9 0.7 2.9 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 2.1 1.5 2.6 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 13.7 8.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 71.9 10.4 12.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.6 12.6 10.3 20.7 10.7 18.4 24.9 14.2 11.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.1 16.1 7.4 13.3 13.9 8.6 14.5 7.8 22.1 15.3 24.2 10.8 11.3 14.6 20.6 8.6 16.3 4.5 11.9 10.8 4.5 28.9 15.0 10.0 12.7 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.6 19.8 13.2 9.4 11.9 12.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 4.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.3 1.1 1.7 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.7 5.2 13.6 0.6 6.3 6.4 8.1 2.3 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 3.8 12.3 6.4 1.0 4.3 7.4 11.7 0.9 13.6 2.1 3.6 7.8 3.2 1.3 2.2 5.1 10.6 5.5 5.8 7.9 0.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 6.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.2 1.8 9.6 3.1 3.5 BV/Share (QR) 23.8 53.0 9.3 35.8 10.9 16.6 16.1 21.0 54.2 36.5 70.9 10.5 39.9 38.9 69.3 21.7 76.0 9.0 14.7 14.8 102.7 42.8 11.8 21.1 55.6 52.8 11.3 66.8 18.8 31.3 47.9 24.7 21.5 21.5 28.6 71.9 22.6 36.9 45.2 11.4 12.5 30.8 17.1 68.1 6.0 23.0 24.1 14.8 119.4 31.9 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 46.7 38.5 18.0 36.8 77.6 18.1 35.0 18.9 100.5 65.1 140.2 12.1 118.0 202.0 32.5 157.7 12.7 12.0 61.9 91.1 13.3 36.9 106.2 90.5 19.1 208.0 51.4 38.2 88.4 26.6 19.0 83.5 47.7 65.2 35.0 18.1 15.3 19.6 91.1 12.6 62.7 23.2 90.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4