GCC Daily Market Update - 14 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 14 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,082.4 17,908.3 4,554.7 6,362.9 10,026.1 4,490.3 85,696.7 16,381.2 21,158.7 3,066.6 25,626.8 20.7 187.0 58.7 120.5 264.6 144.4 1,976.9 452.4 654.3 43.0 481.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.3 2.4 2.8 3.2 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 3.0 0.6 2.4 2.9 (2.3) 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.9 2.8 (0.8) 1.9 (6.7) (3.2) 19.5 (13.9) (3.4) (13.4) (1.9) 10,245.9 6,442.0 4,454.9 3,501.0 5,306.2 5,731.0 1,122.9 1,493.4 2,859.8 (0.4) 38.4 46.8 27.2 31.2 2.3 1.1 6.8 32.9 (0.0) 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 (1.3) 3.5 1.5 4.3 1.5 4.8 (0.7) 0.3 1.5 (1.8) (6.8) 3.4 11.1 (5.5) 6.0 (7.6) 3.8 2.2 44.2 41.8 2.0 1,246.8 216.8 (0.5) (0.4) 0.0 (12.6) 2.1 (1.1) (1.0) 1.6 (1.0) 1.0 10.1 7.5 4.1 1.0 (1.1) 16.9 11.3 (12.7) 17.6 1.2 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks rallied on Wednesday, after China said that its dollar denominated exports surged 11.5% YoY in Mar-16, marking its first gain in nine months. The data helped soothe concerns about China’s economy and also raised optimism on global demand. Asian markets soared, with Shanghai Composite up 1.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.8%, further supported by weakening yen. In Europe the broad based STOXX 600 closed 2.5% higher with all sectors in green. Basic Resources (7.1%) outperformed its peer sectors, tracking metal prices, which got a boost from positive Chinese data. Europe’s Banking sector (+6.3%) also surged, supported by a continued rally in Italian banks. Italian Banks have witnessed significant growth since the start of the week, after Italy agreed to set up a multibillion state-backed fund to help tackle bad bank loans. US markets ended ~1% higher, led by a rally in banks, after JP Morgan (+4.2%) posted higher than expected earnings. GCC GCC markets edged up on Wednesday, encouraged by an overnight jump in oil prices and strength in Asian bourses on strong Chinese trade data. Saudi Arabia’s index climbed 0.6%, supported by Petrochemical shares. Sipchem & Yansab led the sector higher, closing up by 5.5% and 3.5%, respectively. Dubai’s index added 0.8% as index heavy weight Emaar Properties gained 2.7%. Union Properties, the sessions’ heaviest traded stock, tanked 1.3% after announcing an increase in its capital to AED 7bn. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark rose 1.1% largely because of First Gulf Bank(+3.3%) Qatar QE index remained flat on Wednesday, as stronger selling by local retail and institutional investors was offset by robust buying interests by foreign and Gulf institutions. Profit booking was seen stronger within small cap segments in the market. Most of the sectors ended in green, with Transportation sector leading its peers. Out of the 39 companies traded, 18 advanced, 18 declined and 3 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.3 1.6 4.1 120.5 10,400 DSM 20 12.3 1.6 4.2 63.6 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.7 1.5 4.0 1,432.7 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.4 1.4 5.6 85.6 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.9 1.3 3.5 213.1 Kuwait (KSE) 16.2 1.0 4.7 58.2 Oman (MSM) 13.0 1.2 4.6 12.1 Bahrain (BAX) 8.6 0.6 4.9 0.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Warehousing Co Zad Holding Co MPHC Widam Food Co QGMD Top Losers Qatari Investors Group QIMD Aamal Co Qatar Islamic Insurance Vodafone Qatar Close Price 62.5 93.4 19.0 62.6 13.1 3.1 2.4 0.4 1.1 0.2 5.2 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.6 9.8 10.1 (1.9) 18.6 (4.7) 11.9 3.8 (27.6) 10.4 16.1 953.7 0.7 401.7 599.4 195.8 17.1 12.6 21.9 16.3 NA 51.0 38.2 13.2 66.0 12.6 (2.4) (1.3) (0.3) (1.0) (0.2) (4.5) (3.3) (1.9) (1.5) (1.2) 35.3 (4.1) (5.9) (8.3) (1.2) 22.9 (17.8) (17.7) (19.1) (28.4) 516.5 1.0 404.2 10.0 527.9 24.1 10.8 13.8 12.1 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,900 8,400 18/Jan 20.0 10,245.9 10.0 0.0 1/Feb 15/Feb 29/Feb Index Volume (mn) 14/Mar 28/Mar 11/Apr Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,748.5 6,744.7 3,161.6 4,567.9 2,544.5 1,156.1 2,563.5 1D Change (%) 0.0 0.3 (0.4) 0.0 0.1 (0.1) 0.9 Buy (%) 43.7 13.0 56.7 18.0 25.3 43.3 Sell (%) 48.3 27.5 75.8 18.2 6.0 24.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 14 , 2016 Dubai. The plant is the first phase of the USD 1.8bn Hassyan clean coal project which is being developed by Dubai Electricity and Water Authority. One unit of 600 MW is due to become operating by March20 and another a year later. (Source: Zawya) GLOBAL NEWS  US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March-16 as rising energy prices were offset by a decline in the cost of services. US Producer Price Index slipped 0.1% MoM in March-16 after dropping 0.2% MoM in February-16. On YoY basis, the PPI dipped 0.1% in March-16 after being unchanged in February-16. (Source: CNBC)  Dubai's Emaar Properties announced plans to demerge operations of its Indian joint venture Emaar MGF Land Ltd. (Source: Arabian Business)   US retail sales showed an unexpected decrease in the month of March-16. Retail sales fell by 0.3% MoM in March-16. The sales was expected to inch up by 0.1% compared to the 0.1% drop originally reported in February-16. Excluding the decrease in auto sales, retail sales rose by 0.2% MoM in March-16. (Source: RTT) Saudi Arabia’s Riyad Bank has posted a 0.2% YoY rise in Q1-16 net profit. The bank generated net profit of SAR 1.17bn (USD 321.3mn) in Q1-16. Total assets increased by 4.8% YoY to SAR 227.0 bn in Q1-2016, mainly driven by loan and advances which grew by 10.5% YoY to SAR 152.6 bn over the same period. (Source: The Peninsula)   Eurozone industrial production declined more than expected in February-16 on widespread weakness across sub-sectors, according to Eurostat. Industrial production fell 0.8% MoM in February-16. (Source: Saudi Arabia's Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. reported a 41% rise in Q1-16 net profit of SAR 401.9mn (USD 107.2mn) from SAR 285.1mn in Q1-15. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia’s Middle East Healthcare Company, which owns Saudi German Hospitals, has raised SAR 12bn (USD 3.2bn) from its IPO in March-16, according to Samba Capital. (Source: Arabian Business) RTT)  French Consumer Price Index edged down 0.1% YoY in March-16, marking its second successive monthly drop. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.7% in March-16. (Source: RTT)  China's exports grew 11.5% YoY in March-16, exceeding economists' expectations of a 10.0% rise. At the same time, imports plunged 13.8% YoY in March-16, faster than the expectation of a 10.1% decrease. QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s inflation rose 3.3% YoY in March-16, while the index (which was estimated at 107.6) remained stable when compared on MoM basis, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. The rise in annual inflation was primarily attributed to the increasing prices in Recreation & Culture by 11.2%, followed by rise in cost of Education by 7.1%. (Source: Gulf Times)  To help improve the country’s food security, Qatar’s Ministry of Economy and Commerce has constructed 10 warehouses to stockpile sugar, cooking oil, rice and milk. The facilities total 107,446 square meters and are capable of storing enough food for three to 10 months, depending on the commodity. (Source: Doha News)  Qatar’s efforts to empower small and medium-sized enterprises has helped Qatar’s non-oil sector to grow by 7.4% YoY in Q4-15, the Minister of Economy and Commerce has said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar State Cabinet approved a draft decision on formation of a ministerial group to promote participation of private sector in economic development projects. The cabinet also approved a draft decision to set up a technical committee with the same objective. (Source: RTT)   The IMF has raised its 2016 growth forecast for China by 0.2 points to 6.5% in consideration of Beijing's stimulus policy. The IMF has projected the world's second largest economy to grow at a slower pace of 6.2% in 2017. (Source: QNA) The IMF has cut its growth forecast for Japan, citing the global economic slowdown. The IMF has said that Japan's economy will grow by 0.5% in 2016, half the previous estimate. (Source: QNA) GCC NEWS   The UAE telecoms regulator was criticized, with members of the Federal National Council voicing concern over lack of competition between telecoms providers, subscriber’s lack of freedom of choice, high price of services and weak Emiratization rates. (Source: Zawya) All expatriate tenants in Abu Dhabi will be required to pay a 3% tax on their rents as a part of a new municipality fee. Expat tenants in Dubai already pay a 5% municipality tax via their utility bills. (Source: Arabian (Source: Zawya)  Qatar Islamic Bank has reported a 23% YoY jump in Q1-16 net profit. The Bank made net profit of QAR 492.4mn (USD 135.2mn) during the period, compared with QAR 400.4mn in Q1-15. The bank’s total assets increased by 32.6% YoY to QAR 131.4bn, mainly driven by loans and advances which increased by 40.3% YoY to QAR 91.1bn during the quarter. (Source: Arabian Business)  Al-khaleej Takaful Group’s Q1-16 net profit declined 42% YoY to QAR 14.2mn (USD 3.87mn) as compared to net profit of QAR24.5mn (USD 6.7mn) for the same period of the previous year. EPS amounted to QAR 0.55 for Q1-16 as compared to QAR 0.96 for the same quarter of the previous year. (Source: QSE)  Qatari Investors Group’s Q1-16 net profit increased to QAR 74.9mn as compared to net profit of 63.1mn in Q1-15. EPS stood at QAR 0.60 for the quarter as against QAR 0.51 a year ago. (Source: QSE)  Ezdan Holding Group has announced the appointment of Dr. Mousa Al Awwad as COO of the Group. Dr. Mousa Al Awwad was hired in the framework of the Group’s ongoing managerial development process and operational capacity enhancement. (Source: Gulf Times)  Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Hilton Worldwide's luxury brand, has announced the signing of a management agreement with Assets Real Estate Development Company for a new property in Doha. The 325room Conrad Doha is expected to open in early 2019 (Source: Arabian Business)  An Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund denied ownership of a company that received USD 3.5bn from 1Malaysia Development Bhd, raising questions on Malaysian investigators about the state fund’s murky financial dealings. International Petroleum Investment Co. and Aabar Investments said that they have no subsidiaries known as Aabar Investments PJS Limited or Aabar BVI. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Government of Dubai has spent more than AED 565bn in development of public and infrastructure projects of all sectors over the 20 past years, according to the DG of the Government of Dubai’s Department of Finance. (Source: Arabian Business)  Passenger traffic continued to grow 6.9% YoY at Dubai International to reach at 6.4mn in February-16 from 5.9mn registered during February15, according to the Dubai Airports. This brings the total YTD passenger traffic to 13.7mn. (Source: Arabian Business)   Dubai-based United World Infrastructure has reportedly unveiled plans to launch a mid-market hotel chain in India. The company will be partnered with Royal Orchida’s Arjun Baljee to form India Hospitality Investment Company. (Source: Arabian Business) A consortium including China's Harbin Electric and Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power has aimed to secure a loan of up to USD 1.4bn before the end of Q1-16 to finance a 1,200 MW clean coal power plant in Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 14 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1304 USD/QAR 3.6416 109.3400 EUR/QAR 4.1165 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4234 JPY/QAR 0.0333 USD/CHF 0.9668 GBP/QAR 5.1835 USD/CAD 1.2817 CHF/QAR 3.7667 AUD/USD 0.7653 CAD/QAR 2.8412 NZD/USD 0.6919 AUD/QAR 2.7869 USD/INR 66.1450 INR/QAR 0.0551 USD/TRY 2.8469 TRY/QAR 1.2791 USD/ZAR 14.5350 ZAR/QAR 0.2505 USD/BRL 3.4983 BRL/QAR 1.0410 FX Commentary The US dollar continued to strengthen against major currencies yesterday. The USD surged to a two-week high against the EUR and a one-week peak against the JPY, buoyed by positive momentum in global stock markets and improved Chinese export numbers that increased the investors’ appetite for riskier assets. Though the weaker than expected US producer prices and retail sales numbers dragged the USD down for a while, that did not last longer. The commodity linked CAD also weakened against the greenback as oil prices retreated. The Bank of Canada sounding a caution on the country’s growth outlook also contributed to CAD’s weakness during the day. The dollar index that measures the strength of the US currency against a basket of major global currencies, was up 0.8% at 94.730. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.38 0.40 0.44 0.63 1.21 (0.39) (0.36) (0.34) (0.25) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.04 1.14 1.31 1.46 1.80 SAIBOR NA NA 1.63 1.88 2.09 EIBOR 0.26 0.36 0.68 1.03 1.58 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.15% 5.0% 2.02% 2.5% 2.49% 2.49% 1.43% 1.72% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.95% 2.57% 0.64% 0.0% 1.12% 5 Yrs 2 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 20.4 4.9 Turkey 245.2 (35.2) UK 40.8 25.4 Brazil 344.2 (103.6) Germany 18.3 4.5 Egypt 490.1 137.3 France 31.1 (0.4) Abu Dhabi 85.0 10.3 125.3 7.0 Bahrain 366.0 41.0 2.37% 1.97% 1.73% 1.47% 2.0% 2.11% 0.87% 1.0% 0.0% 0.77% 2 Yrs 1.62% 1.38% 1.18% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 1,152.7 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 26.3 Dubai 210.5 13.0 Russia 272.0 (54.3) Qatar 86.0 12.6 Japan 43.5 1.5 143.0 15.0 Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 12:00 EC CPI YoY Period Survey Prior Mar F (0.10%) (0.20%) 14:00 UK 15:30 US Bank of England Bank Rate Apr-14th 0.50% 0.50% Initial Jobless Claims Apr-09th 270k 267k 15:30 US CPI MoM 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Mar 0.20% (0.20%) Apr-08th -- 387.0b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Qatar Islamic Bank Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 492.4 23.0 (9.5) 23.4 (33.4) (11.1) 14.2 (42.2) 26.8 211.6 24.1 11.1 74.9 18.7 13.5 Riyad Bank NA NA NA 1,174.0 0.2 37.9 Bank Albilad NA NA NA 174.5 0.2 (14.6) Yanbu National Petrochemical NA NA NA 401.9 40.9 2.2 Raysut Cement Co 25.3 3.5 (0.0) 8.1 34.0 57.1 Oman Cement Co 15.8 7.7 9.3 3.8 0.3 (18.7) Al Khaleej Takaful Group Qatari Investors Group Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 14 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 07th April 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 7.5 0.0 8.1 1.5 5.6 5.1 3.1 4.3 6.2 2.1 5.1 3.6 4.4 4.4 5.1 5.0 0.0 8.3 4.5 4.4 4.9 7.6 2.9 4.8 5.6 3.8 3.6 0.2 7.9 3.8 4.3 3.7 5.2 2.8 2.7 5.8 3.0 6.4 2.8 2.0 7.9 4.0 3.3 1.7 2.9 2.0 5.3 5.5 4.9 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.9 0.8 2.1 1.0 6.7 1.1 2.1 0.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.9 2.9 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.8 4.1 0.9 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6 3.1 2.8 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.9 2.9 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.5 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 13.6 9.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 67.7 10.2 12.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.1 12.6 10.3 20.4 10.7 17.6 25.1 12.9 11.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.1 15.8 7.4 12.9 13.1 8.1 14.3 7.7 21.3 15.3 26.8 10.7 11.1 14.4 15.9 8.7 16.1 4.9 12.7 10.9 4.4 28.7 13.3 9.8 12.6 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.5 19.2 13.4 9.5 12.0 12.4 EPS (QR) 3.4 4.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.3 1.1 1.7 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.3 5.2 13.6 0.6 6.3 6.4 8.1 2.3 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 3.8 12.3 6.4 1.0 4.3 7.4 11.7 0.9 13.6 2.0 3.6 7.8 3.2 1.7 2.2 5.1 10.6 5.5 5.8 7.9 0.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 6.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.2 1.8 9.6 3.1 3.5 BV/Share (QR) 23.8 53.0 9.3 35.8 10.9 16.6 16.1 21.0 56.8 36.5 70.9 10.5 40.1 38.9 69.3 21.7 76.0 9.0 14.7 14.8 102.7 42.8 11.8 21.1 55.6 52.8 11.3 66.8 19.5 31.3 47.9 24.7 22.3 21.5 28.6 71.9 22.6 37.0 45.2 11.4 12.5 30.8 17.1 68.1 6.0 23.0 24.1 14.8 119.4 31.9 27.7 Stock Price (QR) 46.1 40.0 19.1 37.2 73.0 17.7 34.4 16.4 100.0 65.0 139.9 11.9 Company 3.1 7.5 0.0 8.1 1.5 5.6 5.1 3.1 4.3 6.2 2.1 5.1 3.6 4.4 4.4 5.1 5.0 0.0 8.3 4.5 4.4 4.9 7.6 2.9 4.8 5.6 3.8 3.6 0.2 7.9 3.8 4.3 3.7 5.2 2.8 2.7 5.8 3.0 6.4 2.8 2.0 7.9 4.0 3.3 1.7 2.9 2.0 5.3 5.5 4.9 3.9 113.0 203.0 29.5 152.0 12.4 12.0 60.5 91.0 12.5 35.0 104.7 89.5 18.4 208.8 54.4 38.0 86.5 27.0 19.4 82.7 51.5 69.5 34.4 18.0 13.6 19.1 92.2 12.1 60.5 23.5 90.6 Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4