GCC Daily Market Update - 8 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 8 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,131.5 18,259.6 4,773.7 6,806.9 10,457.0 4,461.2 75,682.0 17,177.2 22,801.4 3,133.3 27,459.0 46.3 371.3 113.3 113.6 197.8 83.8 1,414.8 271.9 158.8 8.0 184.8 2.2 2.1 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.6 (0.6) (2.1) (2.0) (1.1) (3.6) (1.4) (0.6) 1.1 (1.7) 4.3 4.8 3.9 9.0 (2.7) (3.8) 5.5 (9.8) 4.0 (11.5) 5.1 9,964.0 6,197.7 4,288.2 3,280.9 5,443.2 5,458.5 1,149.4 1,479.6 2,881.6 15.3 91.4 (3.8) 3.0 4.1 (6.2) 0.5 1.1 43.0 0.2 1.5 (0.1) 0.1 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.1 1.5 (2.1) 3.1 (0.3) (1.5) 0.8 (0.4) 0.0 (1.1) (0.3) (4.5) (10.3) (0.4) 4.1 (3.1) 1.0 (5.5) 2.4 2.9 46.2 44.9 2.8 1,279.4 231.0 0.6 0.8 0.0 (25.1) 4.5 1.3 1.9 1.8 (1.9) 2.0 (4.3) (4.3) (6.6) 0.5 5.0 24.0 21.1 20.9 20.7 8.5 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks rose after the FBI cleared charges against Hillary Clinton about illegitimate use of emails as the secretary of state, thereby increasing her prospects of winning the Presidential race. Japan’s Nikkei led the regional peers rising 1.6% further supported by weaker yen. The Hang Seng Index gained 0.8% however Real Estate companies plunged after Hong Kong Chief Executive raised the stamp duty for all residential purchases. European markets closed higher, tracking gains in Asian markets. The gains were broad based with Banking stocks, leading sectoral indices. US markets staged a strong relief rally, with performance further boosted by Energy shares, which gained on back of rebound in oil prices. GCC Gulf markets ended on a mixed note on Monday. Saudi's Index rose 1.5% lifted by Petrochemical stocks which gained 1.5% on the back of rise in oil prices. Additionally, improved investor sentiment buoyed by easing liquidity concerns, as evident from fall in interbank rates, also added to the optimism in the market. Dubai's index rose 0.1% supported by gains in Emaar Malls which rose 1.5% after the company reported better than expected results. Abu Dhabi's index edged down 0.1% as Dana Gas and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank fell 1.8% and 1.0%, respectively. Trading in the UAE capital was dominated by Eshraq Properties, which accounted for more than two-thirds of total shares traded. The high volumes, were majorly on back of a series of upcoming projects announced by the company. Qatar QE Index rose 0.2% lifted by heavy buying interest in Industrials and Banking sectors. Foreign institutions and Retail investors were the net buyers on the bourse, however heavy selling pressure from Domestic institutions capped gains. In terms of volume, Banking, Consumer goods and Industrials stocks together constituted more than 80% of the total traded. Out of the 44 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 16 declined, 20 advanced and 4 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.5 4.1 71.2 DSM 20 14.4 1.5 4.1 33.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.7 1.4 3.8 1,029.4 UAE (ADX) 11.1 1.4 5.7 116.4 UAE (DFM) 12.0 1.2 4.2 142.9 Kuwait (KSE) 18.8 1.0 4.3 60.6 Oman (MSM) 10.3 1.1 5.3 2.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.6 0.4 4.9 0.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Int. Services Medicare Group Al Khalij Com. Bank Qatar Elect & Water Co Qatar German Co Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Al Meera Consumer Islamic Holding Group Qatar Fuel Qsc Qatar Navigation Close Price 30.8 63.3 18.2 210.5 10.2 2.0 1.7 0.4 3.4 0.2 6.9 2.8 2.2 1.6 1.6 (40.2) (46.9) 1.3 (2.7) (25.7) (46.7) (58.8) (11.7) (0.5) (32.0) 989.4 749.5 22.6 30.0 5.5 34.1 20.5 11.2 14.5 NA 38.6 172.9 55.0 142.0 86.0 (1.5) (2.9) (0.8) (2.0) (1.0) (3.7) (1.6) (1.4) (1.4) (1.1) (12.1) (21.4) (30.1) 4.0 (9.5) (21.7) (23.6) (34.2) (2.3) (12.2) 0.8 6.8 4.3 5.5 9.4 11.4 21.8 196.4 11.3 10.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 11/Aug 30.0 9,964.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 25/Aug 8/Sep 22/Sep Index Volume (mn) 6/Oct 20/Oct 3/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,803.7 5,726.6 3,009.2 4,436.6 2,253.3 1,126.6 2,405.4 1D Change (%) 0.1 (0.6) 1.0 (0.4) (0.2) (0.4) (0.2) Buy (%) 19.1 8.3 27.4 5.9 66.7 72.6 Sell (%) 18.3 57.6 75.9 5.8 18.4 24.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 8 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  The Secretary General of OPEC said that Russia is on board with an OPEC agreement on 30th November-16 in Vienna to limit crude oil production to help re-balance the market. (Source: Bloomberg)  Sabine Lautenschlaeger, member of ECB’s executive board, defended the central bank's ultra-loose monetary policy but added that she was skeptical of further interest rate cuts or other forms of easing. (Source:  Oman Authority for Electricity Regulation has appointed Cesi as the lead consultant in the technical integration of rooftop solar photovoltaic systems across the country. Under the contract, Cesi will develop a framework for the deployment of small-scale gridconnected rooftop solar PV systems. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman Drydock Company (ODC) has bagged a contract to convert the fifth Greek giant ship Olympic Target, an ore/crude oil carrier to a crude oil only carrier. The work, which will be completed in 80 days will use over 2,200 tons of steel and involve more than 300 workers. Reuters)    German industrial orders fell by 0.6% MoM in September-16 after a rise in previous two months. The fall was driven by weak demand both at global and domestic level. Domestic demand fell by 1.1% MoM while foreign orders fell 0.3% MoM for the period. Demand from euro zone countries also fell 4.5% MoM. (Source: Reuters)\ Oman's Telecommunications Regulatory Authority has begun the process to award a third license for the installation, operation, maintenance and exploitation of a telecom system for public mobile services, the regulator said in a statement. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bank Muscat has begun initial discussions with banks to refinance an existing USD600 mn loan with a tenure of three years and maturing in March-17. (Source: Zawya)  Bank Nizwa has reported net profit of OMR 666,000 in 9M-16 compared to net loss of OMR 3,265 for the same period in 2015. The growth was attributed to 59.0% YoY increase in gross financing to OMR 383.0mn for the period. The operating income rose 51% YoY to OMR 12.5mn for the period. (Source: Times of Oman)  Gross premiums/contributions generated by Bahrain’s domestic insurance sector amounted to BHD 272.09mn (USD 721.72mn) in 2015 compared to BHD 273.95 million ($726.66 million) in 2014, according to a report by the Central Bank of Bahrain. The report further stated that business in medical insurance segment grew 11% YoY followed by motor insurance at 4% YoY. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Total assets of Kuwaiti banks increased 6.3% YoY and 1.8% MoM to KWD60.6 bn in September‐16. Private sector credit increased 6.7% YoY and 0.8% MoM to KWD36.6 bn. (Source: Central Bank of Kuwait)  Andrea Maechler, a member of the Swiss Central Bank governing body said that the bank will intervene in the currency markets if the outcome of the US presidential election triggers a rush into the safe haven currency (CHF). (Source: Reuters)  China’s trade surplus stood at USD 49.06bn in October-16 versus forecasts of USD 51.70bn. Exports fell 7.3% YoY while imports shrank 1.4% YoY for the period. (Source: Reuters)  (Source: Muscat Daily) Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.2% MoM in September-16 mainly caused by a drop in sales of non-food products. However, on a year on year basis the sales were up 1.1% for the period. (Source: Reuters) China's foreign exchange reserves fell by USD 45.7bn to USD 3.12tn in October-16, the biggest monthly decline since January-16, compared to a USD 19.0bn fall in September-16. The fall in the reserve was attributed to a sell-off by the Central Bank to cushion CNY, which was impacted by strength in USD. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  Abu Dhabi will receive 600,000 Chinese tourists a year by 2021, a rise of 265% on the 163,935 guests who stayed in the country’s hotels during the 9M-16, according to Abu Dhabi Tourism & Culture Authority. (Source: The National)  Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company (ADMA-OPCO)’s Cloud Ready Data Centre, made in partnership with Huawei is now fully operational. The center will address the needs of long-distance transmission and processing of volumes of data during offshore oil exploration and production. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s Damac Properties reported 23.0% YoY fall in net profit to AED 2.8bn (USD 773.0mn) in 9M-16. Revenue stood at AED 5.1bn (USD 1.4bn) for the period. Total assets rose to AED 24.3bn as of September16 compared to AED 23.5bn for the same period in 2015. (Source: Trade QATAR NEWS  Qatar will raise salaries of government employees next year in a rare spending hike by the government despite low oil and gas prices are weighing on state finances. (Source: Arabian Business)  Qatar has set its retroactive official selling price (OSP) for its Marine crude at USD 48.40 per barrel for October-16, up USD 5.95 per barrel from September-16 prices. Qatar land crude OSP also rose by USD 6 to USD 50.25 for the period. The price hikes for October-16 increased the OSP differentials to Dubai quotes for Qatar Marine and Land by 29 cents and 35 cents per barrel respectively. (Source: Business Recorder)  Qatari Businessmen Association Chairman said that the country is exploring investment potential in Serbia, especially in the European country’s tourism sector, seeking investments in Doha’s infrastructure development, as part of enhancing economic relations between the two countries. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ooredoo Group and Ericsson have agreed a five-year contract to implement a new cloud-ready revenue management system across the Group’s footprint in MENA and Southeast Asia region. (Source: Trade Arabia)     Saudi Arabia has informed Egypt that shipments of oil products expected under a USD 23.0bn aid deal would be halted indefinitely, suggesting a deepening rift between the two countries. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia based asset manager, Alkhabeer Capital has acquired a majority stake in the Rihab Al-Maarifa Company, a Riyadh-based K-12 education provider. (Source: Trade Arabia) Oman’s merchandise exports declined by 28.4% YoY to OMR 4.0bn while imports fell by 23.4% YoY to OMR 3.5bn during January-May 2016. Oil and gas exports declined by 37.5% YoY to OMR 2.1bn while non-oil exports fell 24.9% YoY for the period. (Source: Times of Oman) The Chief Executive of Oman Oil Company said that the company plans to progress the implementation of three strategically significant petrochemical ventures in 2017. The total investment in all three ventures with or without financing is in the range of OMR 700.0mn (USD 1.8bn). (Source: Trade Arabia) Arabia)  Elan Signage during its participation in ‘Made in Qatar‘ 2016 expo announced its plan to commission a new signage factory at the Industrial area in Qatar by the Q1-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Development Bank and Qatar Shell have shortlisted 26 Qatari SMEs to tender for six business opportunities in its gas-to-liquids plant. The final list of shortlisted SMEs will be disclosed on 5th December-16. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Petroleum President said that the company is aiming to further reducing its operating costs as part of efforts to improve efficiency as the hydrocarbon industry redefines itself amid falling oil prices. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 8 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1071 USD/QAR 3.6411 104.4600 EUR/QAR 4.0311 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2426 JPY/QAR 0.0349 USD/CHF 0.9743 GBP/QAR 4.5244 USD/CAD 1.3364 CHF/QAR 3.7371 AUD/USD 0.7728 CAD/QAR 2.7246 NZD/USD 0.7344 AUD/QAR 2.8138 USD/INR 66.2375 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 3.1678 TRY/QAR 1.1494 USD/ZAR 13.3623 ZAR/QAR 0.2725 USD/BRL 3.2061 BRL/QAR 1.1357 FX Commentary The dollar index gained 0.8% on Monday after the FBI decided that US Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will not face criminal charges, which was seen as a boost to her chances of winning US presidential election. CAD rose against its US counterpart as oil prices moved sharply higher on Monday after OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said the Organization is committed to a planned cut in output to 32.5-33 mn barrels per day. EUR fell 0.8% against USD, majorly impacted by poor economic data, which included fall in Eurozone retail sales and German industrial orders. Statements by the member of the executive board of the European Central Bank defending the central bank's ultra-loose monetary policy also weighed on the currency. JPY closed lower against USD amidst reduced demand for safe havens. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.44 0.46 0.54 0.88 1.56 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) 1.23 1.34 1.49 1.74 2.14 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 1.99 2.24 2.58 EIBOR 0.40 0.51 0.78 1.34 1.93 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.19 1.50 2.06 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.06% 4.0% 1.98% 2.0% 2.38% 2.38% 1.42% 1.75% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.72% 2.58% 0.55% 0.0% 1.11% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 23.5 1.8 Turkey 271.4 4.6 UK 37.5 1.0 Brazil 270.4 (71.1) Germany 20.4 1.8 Egypt 459.6 (20.9) France 30.6 (8.3) Abu Dhabi 67.5 (30.3) Italy 145.6 18.6 Bahrain 359.2 (0.8) Greece 929.0 (236.2) Dubai 150.8 (69.4) Russia 226.3 (34.9) Qatar 89.5 (14.3) Japan 33.5 (6.5) Saudi Arabia 132.1 (27.8) 1.97% 1.69% 2.0% 2.24% 1.07% 1.0% 0.98% 1.69% 1.49% 1.33% 2.70% 2.04% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:00 Germany Industrial Production SA MoM Sep (0.50%) 2.50% 12:30 UK Industrial Production MoM Sep 0.00% (0.40%) 12:30 UK Manufacturing Production MoM Sep 0.40% 0.20% 16:15 Canada Housing Starts Oct 195.0k 219.3k 16:30 Canada Building Permits MoM Sep (5.80%) 10.40% 02:50 Japan BoP Current Account Balance Sep ¥2,020.0b ¥2,000.8b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 56.3 1.1 0.5 12.1 10.4 1.5 NA NA NA 1.4 866.9 9.7 105.3 (9.0) (25.2) 3.4 (152.0) (86.0) NA NA NA 12.1 (1.4) (2.0) Abu Dhabi National Hotels 261.2 (0.2) (11.4) 16.2 54.3 (50.6) Union Cement Company 149.6 26.4 15.8 18.3 (2.7) (34.5) 27.1 264.0 (7.6) 5.2 26,542.3 89.0 1,748.4 (13.4) (0.3) 902.0 (11.7) 1.7 Gulf Bank Independent Petroleum Group Emirates Insurance Company Mabanee Co SAKC Takaful Emarat Insurance PSC Damac Properties Dubai Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 8 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 8.2 0.0 8.3 2.0 5.6 5.2 3.5 0.0 4.2 6.4 1.9 5.9 3.4 6.5 8.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.2 4.3 5.3 5.9 7.4 3.6 5.0 4.6 3.6 2.4 7.1 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.4 2.2 3.0 8.2 2.7 7.4 3.1 2.2 7.9 4.4 3.3 2.0 3.0 2.3 5.6 5.7 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.3 1.0 2.2 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.6 2.5 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.8 3.9 0.7 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.6 2.2 1.7 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.8 19.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 11.0 11.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.2 11.9 10.8 27.8 11.3 7.1 18.1 20.7 13.5 11.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 13.2 5.7 11.0 12.8 30.9 18.2 18.8 14.3 23.0 10.1 10.5 16.8 17.2 9.4 19.7 4.0 12.0 12.1 11.8 24.5 14.2 12.4 18.5 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.1 15.5 12.7 11.2 12.3 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 40.1 36.5 21.5 36.0 54.0 17.9 33.5 14.3 9.6 101.4 62.2 156.7 10.1 77.4 56.0 167.9 28.1 140.3 9.6 10.9 62.5 76.2 12.8 28.0 100.3 15.3 207.0 53.0 42.0 81.4 20.0 18.5 86.7 45.0 48.8 29.8 16.0 12.1 19.1 92.0 10.3 53.0 22.3 87.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4