GCC Daily Market Update - 23 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 23 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,202.9 19,023.9 4,873.8 6,819.7 10,713.9 4,548.4 75,812.0 18,162.9 22,678.1 3,248.4 25,960.8 4.8 67.2 14.8 41.8 28.7 18.8 268.4 56.9 320.3 30.2 195.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.8 3.6 4.9 1.5 (1.9) 0.5 0.9 (3.5) 4.2 (1.1) 4.8 (7.1) 7.8 9.2 6.1 9.2 (0.3) (1.9) 5.7 (4.6) 3.5 (8.2) (0.6) 9,740.8 6,601.6 4,218.7 3,290.8 5,515.4 5,521.3 1,184.4 1,480.9 2,880.9 (42.0) 104.9 (10.9) (15.4) (2.3) 25.8 (7.7) (7.2) (3.0) (0.4) 1.6 (0.3) (0.5) (0.0) 0.5 (0.7) (0.5) (0.1) (4.2) 9.8 (1.9) (1.2) 2.1 0.7 3.1 (1.0) (0.3) (6.6) (4.5) (2.1) 4.4 (1.8) 2.1 (2.6) 2.2 3.0 49.1 48.0 3.0 1,211.2 254.5 0.2 0.5 0.0 1.4 3.0 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.1 1.2 1.7 2.4 (2.7) (4.9) 15.5 31.7 29.6 26.0 14.2 19.3 Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global indices concluded in green on Tuesday. US stocks continued their upward trajectory, with Dow closing at record highs, supported by a rally in commodity producer’s, which benefitted from improved metal prices. S&P closed 0.2% higher led by gains in Consumer Discretionary sector, which was boosted by strong quarterly reports from Dollar Tree and Signet Jewelers. The Healthcare sector was the only laggard, dropping 0.7%, weighed down by Medtronic, after the device maker reported quarterly revenue that missed expectations. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.2% at the close, paring gains of as much as 0.7% as US equities lost momentum. Gains were led by Mining stocks, supported by rise in oil and commodity prices. In Asia, China’s index gained 0.9%, supported by a higher reference rate for CNY, 12 straight sessions of devaluation, while Japan’s index benefitted from weaker yen. GCC Saudi Arabian stocks rebounded on Tuesday as oil prices hit a one-month high, outperforming other stock markets in the Gulf where traders booked profits. Banks were the front runners, with all but 1 bank, closing in green. Petrochemical shares also ended on a strong note, supported by oil prices. Dubai's main index fell 0.5%, amidst high volumes, as weak construction and real estate shares, weighed on the broader index, while Abu Dhabi’s index closed 0.3% lower because of a 1.7% decline by FGB. Qatar QE index registered a third consecutive decline on Tuesday on back of profit booking by local retail investors and foreign institutions. However bullish bets by domestic institutions limited gains. Most major sectors closed in red, with a higher than average selling pressure, witnessed in Realty, Banking and Consumer Goods sectors. Insurance sector bucked the broader trend, ending the day in green. In terms of volume, Telecom and Banking stocks together constituted about 69% of the total traded. Out of 37 stocks traded, 11 advanced, 19 declined and 7 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.3 1.5 4.2 65.8 DSM 20 14.1 1.5 4.2 57.8 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.7 1.5 3.6 1,982.9 UAE (ADX) 10.9 1.3 5.8 101.0 UAE (DFM) 10.8 1.2 4.2 350.0 Kuwait (KSE) 18.4 1.0 4.4 39.8 Oman (MSM) 10.4 1.1 5.2 6.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.7 0.4 4.7 1.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp. Qatari Investors Group Qatar Industrial Manuf. Gulf Intl. Services Widam Food Co Top Losers Gulf Warehousing Co. Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar & Oman Investm United Development Aamal Co Close Price 20.1 54.5 44.0 29.8 61.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 3.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 (34.1) 44.6 10.3 (42.1) 16.5 (37.2) 35.6 5.1 (46.3) 26.3 0.0 11.4 7.3 158.4 1.6 17.3 23.7 10.6 33.0 13.0 50.0 33.4 9.6 18.3 13.1 (3.4) (1.4) (0.3) (0.4) (0.2) (6.4) (4.0) (2.7) (2.1) (1.7) (12.1) (27.2) (22.0) (11.8) (6.6) (16.7) (33.1) (23.9) (17.9) 1.2 190.9 232.0 11.6 110.1 2.2 13.7 31.7 26.4 11.9 13.0 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 28/Aug 30.0 20.0 9,740.8 10.0 0.0 11/Sep 25/Sep 9/Oct Index Volume (mn) 23/Oct 6/Nov 20/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,741.4 5,597.2 3,038.2 4,268.8 2,131.1 1,089.4 2,390.8 1D Change (%) (0.5) (0.5) (0.3) 0.2 (0.9) (0.2) (0.5) Buy (%) 30.1 36.8 66.9 7.0 26.1 33.1 Sell (%) 58.8 10.6 69.4 5.3 25.3 30.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 23 , 2016 payments were delayed due to a sharp decline in oil revenue and new measures taken by the government to cut spending. (Source: Zawya) GLOBAL NEWS  US existing home sales rose by 2.0% to an annual rate of 5.6mn units in October-16 compared to 5.49mn units in September-16. The rise in sales was attributed to release of unrealized pent-up demand after would-be buyers were held back by tight supply over the summer.  Saudi Transport and Investment Company said in a statement that the company's EGM approved the board’s proposal to increase the capital by 33.3% (SAR 60.0mn) to SAR 240.0mn. The capital will be raised through distributing one bonus share for every three shares, bringing the total to 24mn shares worth SAR 10.0 each. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia’s construction firm Al-Khodari and Sons said that projects worth SAR 362.2mn had been delayed due to factors ranging from the slow issuance of visas to clients facing funding shortages. (Source: Zawya)  King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC) has signed a contract with Ahmad Al Tazi Rockwool Factory (Al Tazi) to lease an additional 9,000 sqm in the Industrial Valley. (Source: Zawya)  Manufacturing industries in Oman needs to bring down its cost of production by adopting automation in order to develop the industrial sector in the country and to compete with many Asian countries with low labor costs, according to the Minister of Commerce and Industry. (Source: Reuters)  Financial Stability Report by the European Central Bank stated that high level of NPL on the balance sheets of euro area banks will be a cause for concern for policymakers. The report made the case for having state-backed 'bad banks' buy part of the EUR 1.0tn of soured loans that are curbing lending and economic growth. (Source: FTSE Global Markets)     UK posted a smaller than forecast budget deficit of GBP 4.8bn (USD 6.0bn) in October-16 down from GBP 6.4bn in Ocrober-15. Tax receipts rose 6.8% YoY and government spending grew 2.6% YoY for the period. (Source: Bloomberg) Fitch affirmed China's long-term foreign and local-currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at A+ with a stable outlook. The agency cited the country's robust external finances and strong macroeconomic track record as reasons for the rating. (Source: Reuters)  The value of construction work done in Australia during Q3-16 was lower by 4.9% MoM to USD 46.2bn as the value of building work fell by 5.7% MoM to USD 25.9bn for the period. On an annual basis, the value fell by 11.1% for the same period. (Source: Business Insider) Oman National Engineering and Investment has been awarded a contract from Muscat Electricity Distribution Company for constructing 3x20 MVA 33/11KV Primary substation at AL Amerat-2. The ten-month contract is worth OMR 2.039 mn. (Source: Mubasher)  Moody's revised its outlook on Greece's banking system to stable from negative. The outlook reflects the agency's expectation of funding and profitability improvements for the Greek banks balanced against sizeable problem loans and limited lending opportunities. (Source: Bahrain's Investcorp bought stakes in the range of USD 100mn to USD 200mn for 30 to 40% stake in Saudi Arabia's Al Borg Medical Laboratories, the largest private medical laboratory chains in the GCC region. (Source: Reuters)  The Central Bank of Bahrain announced that the monthly issue of 91day maturity Sukuk Al-Salam, Sukuk Al-Salam Islamic securities has been subscribed by 128%. The issue will mature on 22nd February-16 and is expected to give a return of 2.05% compared to 2.02% in previous issue. (Source: BNA)  The initial public offering of the Eskan Bank Realty Income Trust (REIT) opened today. The BHD 14.4 mn offering represents 72.9% of the trust’s total size of BHD 19.8 mn, and has a target of 6.5% in net distributable income payable semi-annually. This sharia-compliant offering is reserved for Bahraini and GCC nationals. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Gulf Base) Moody’s) GCC NEWS  The investments of the GCC countries in the aluminum industry are expected to increase from currently USD 40bn to reach USD 50bn 55bn in the upcoming 3 years, according to the General Secretary of the Gulf Aluminum Council. (Source: Mubasher)  Dubai Wholesale City announced the beginning of excavation works as construction of the AED 30.0bn project gets underway. Port Saeed Transport & Building Contracting Company has been appointed to execute site works which will include, levelling, grading and excavating, spanning over 135mn sq. feet. (Source: Arabian Business)   Bank of Singapore has been granted a Category 4 license to operate a branch in the Dubai International Financial Centre, which is scheduled to open in Q1-17. The bank will offer a range of customized services to its ultra-high and high net worth clients. (Source: Trade Arabia) Etihad Airways has set final pricing guidance of around 215 bps points above midswaps for its planned sukuk, expected to be at least USD 500.0mn in size. (Source: Reuters) QATAR NEWS  Qatar recorded the highest average wealth per adult in the MENA region, according to a report by Credit Suisse Research Institute. The nation’s average wealth per adult stood at USD 161,700 in mid-2016, down 0.4% YoY. UAE followed Qatar, with the nation’s average wealth per adult standing at USD151,100. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed Commercial Bank's (CBQ) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+' with a Stable Outlook. The ratings agency has downgraded CBQ's Viability Rating (VR) to 'bbb-' from 'bbb'. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB), has implemented a state of art Operational Risk Management system provided by MetricStream, to consolidate operational risk data and convert it into actionable risk intelligence that can support better decision-making and improved business performance. (Source: QSE)  Saudi Investment Bank announced the successful closure of its transaction of SAR 500.0 subordinated Tier I sukuk. Alistithmar for Financial Securities and Brokerage Company and J.P. Morgan Saudi Arabia Company acted as joint lead managers. (Source Tadawul)  Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power has mandated banks (Jefferies, Citi, CCB Singapore, Mizuho and Standard Chartered Bank) to arrange investor meetings to issue USD denominated senior secured 144A/Reg S bond, which traditionally have benchmark size of more than USD500.0mn.  Qatari start-ups will drive the country’s digital economy and boost job creation in the field of technology, the Ministry of Transport and Communications (MoTC) announced recently at SAP’s first ‘Start-up Focus’ event in Qatar. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Zawya)  Siemens has won a QAR 45.2mn contract to help power Qatar’s new Hamad Port, a megaproject, with a sizeable energy management package. The contract is the first for Siemens within the project and includes the supply of fully-integrated E-House substations that will significantly reduce on-site civil works and installation. (Source: Gulf Times)  The National Committee of Contractors expects the Saudi Arabia government to clear all outstanding payments to contractors, which reached more than SAR 100.0bn, within the next few weeks. The 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 23 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0657 USD/QAR 3.6413 111.1400 EUR/QAR 3.8805 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2453 JPY/QAR 0.0328 USD/CHF 1.0113 GBP/QAR 4.5345 USD/CAD 1.3441 CHF/QAR 3.6006 AUD/USD 0.7402 CAD/QAR 2.7091 NZD/USD 0.7062 AUD/QAR 2.6953 USD/INR 67.7550 INR/QAR 0.0537 USD/TRY 3.3845 TRY/QAR 1.0759 USD/ZAR 14.0861 ZAR/QAR 0.2585 USD/BRL 3.3563 BRL/QAR 1.0849 FX Commentary USD resumed its uptrend on Tuesday, after strong US existing home sales data, cemented expectation of a Fed rate hike in December. The data furthermore pointed towards the pickup in economic growth, which increased the probability of more monetary tightening in the upcoming year. CAD weakened against its US counterpart as idea of an ambitious Asia-Pacific trade pact linking the US and 11 countries including Canada was rejected by US President-elect Trump. The losses were however capped with upbeat September retail sales data and surge in oil prices. GBP fell against USD, despite better than expected budget deficit data. EUR also closed lower against the USD, majorly due to the strength in the latter. JPY started on a strong note, following the earthquake, however pared gains on prospects of increased interest rate differential in US and Japan. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.57 0.92 1.62 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.08) QAIBOR 1.15 1.25 1.42 1.71 2.14 SAIBOR NA 1.52 1.90 2.11 2.50 EIBOR 0.39 0.51 0.76 1.43 2.01 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.00 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.45% 4.0% 2.30% 2.0% 0.0% 2.77% 2.77% 1.93% 2.27% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 3.01% 0.73% 1.51% 0.65% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.0 7.9 Turkey 288.7 6.5 UK 37.9 3.9 Brazil 303.3 (53.4) Germany 23.1 3.3 Egypt 468.7 (11.8) France 39.7 1.4 Abu Dhabi 66.0 (29.0) Italy 175.2 45.9 Bahrain 381.0 10.0 Greece 924.9 (21.8) Dubai 155.0 (64.0) Russia 224.2 (45.3) Qatar 88.0 (12.5) Japan 33.0 (2.0) Saudi Arabia 126.0 (33.5) 2.0% 2.55% 1.28% 1.85% 1.60% 2.13% 1.94% 1.75% 1.0% 2.11% 2.42% 0.99% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:00 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI Nov P 51.5 51.8 11:00 France Markit France Services PMI Nov P 51.9 51.4 11:00 France Markit France Composite PMI Nov P 51.9 51.6 11:30 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov P 54.8 55 11:30 Germany Markit Germany Services PMI Nov P 54 54.2 11:30 Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Nov P 55 55.1 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov P 53.3 53.5 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Services PMI Nov P 52.9 52.8 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Nov P 53.3 53.3 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Nov-18th - (9.20%) 16:30 US Durable Goods Orders Oct P 1.70% (0.30%) 16:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Oct P 0.20% 0.10% Nov-19th 250k 235k Nov P 53.5 53.4 Oct 590k 593k 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 17:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI 18:00 US New Home Sales 18:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov F 91.6 91.6 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Nov P - 51.4 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 23 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.1 0.0 9.1 1.9 5.6 5.2 3.5 0.0 4.3 6.6 1.9 6.1 3.5 6.5 8.1 5.4 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.3 4.5 5.3 5.8 7.2 3.4 4.8 4.6 3.6 2.3 7.1 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.4 2.3 3.1 8.2 2.8 7.3 3.3 2.3 8.0 4.6 3.3 2.2 3.0 2.3 5.5 5.9 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.9 2.2 1.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.5 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 3.8 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 2.9 2.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 17.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.8 (H) (‫)م‬ 11.1 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.0 11.6 10.5 27.2 11.0 7.0 19.9 20.4 13.5 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 12.8 5.6 11.0 13.3 32.2 18.9 18.6 14.2 23.6 10.1 10.6 17.2 17.1 9.5 18.6 4.0 12.0 11.6 11.9 23.0 14.0 12.2 17.8 13.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.8 15.7 13.0 10.9 12.4 13.3 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 33.0 20.7 33.1 55.0 18.0 33.5 14.1 9.9 100.1 60.7 152.7 9.9 76.5 61.4 165.4 28.1 142.0 10.1 10.8 60.6 76.0 13.3 29.2 104.1 15.2 206.2 54.4 42.0 82.3 19.9 18.7 81.7 44.6 48.7 30.0 15.1 12.0 18.8 92.1 9.6 53.5 22.8 85.4 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ QFC‫األول‬ ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4