GCC Daily Market Update - 25 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 25 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,076.1 17,706.1 4,444.3 6,219.3 10,057.3 4,431.5 79,434.6 16,498.8 19,830.4 2,821.7 25,305.5 28.0 213.1 89.2 82.8 215.0 106.4 2,668.8 (155.8) 21.4 (22.0) 75.1 1.4 1.2 2.0 1.4 2.2 2.5 3.5 (0.9) 0.1 (0.8) 0.3 0.5 (0.4) 2.4 (0.4) 0.2 0.1 (6.9) (1.0) (5.9) (4.0) (1.2) 1.6 1.6 (3.2) (0.4) (6.4) (4.4) 10.7 (13.3) (9.5) (20.3) (3.1) 9,664.9 6,474.8 4,222.2 3,247.6 5,322.6 5,937.4 1,100.7 1,415.1 2,816.7 (16.7) 49.6 23.6 31.2 8.1 (11.0) 0.8 (15.4) 31.2 (0.2) 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.2 (0.2) 0.1 (1.1) 1.1 (5.1) (4.9) (7.1) (7.0) (1.3) (0.1) (0.9) (6.8) (0.7) (7.3) (6.3) (2.0) 3.1 (5.2) 9.8 (9.5) (1.8) 0.7 48.6 48.6 2.0 1,229.2 207.0 0.3 0.5 (0.1) (22.3) 1.2 0.5 1.1 (3.7) (1.8) 0.6 2.3 7.4 (9.1) (4.8) (9.2) 32.1 33.1 (15.3) 15.9 (3.1) Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global markets finished in green on Tuesday. In US, S&P 500 posted its biggest gain in more than two months, led by Technology and Financial stocks. Financial sector ended 1.5% in green supported by strong expectations of interest rate hike in June, a view further cemented by Philadelphia Fed President, late on Monday. Technology shares closed 2.1% higher led by Microsoft and Intel. Gains in crude prices and high paced growth in sales of new homes in April further boosted optimism. The Stoxx Europe 600 rallied 2.2%, in broad-based gains, with Financial stocks leading its peer sectors. Weakness in EUR further boosted export oriented stocks. Asian markets closed in red taking cues from weakness in the US markets on Monday and a retreat in oil prices during the Asian session. Japan closed 0.9% in red on back of regained strength in yen. GCC Most gulf indices closed in green on Tuesday amidst thin volumes as investors stayed away because of the approach of the holy month of Ramadan and summer holidays. Saudi Arabia’s index closed 0.8% higher supported by gains in Petrochemical sector, which was in turn buoyed by improvement in oil prices. Abu Dhabi's index rose 0.6% buoyed by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank which climbed 1.5% however the other seven of the 10 most heavily traded stocks ended flat or lower. Dubai’s index closed 1% higher with most gains in the final half hour. Qatar QE index bucked the broader positive trend across gulf closing 0.2% in red mainly due to net selling pressures from foreign and Gulf institutions. The bearish outlook of non-Qatari individual investors also contributed to the fall. Profit booking was seen more pronounced in the Consumer goods, Realty and Banking counters. In terms of volume Industrials, Banking and Real Estate stocks together constituted more than 78% of the total traded. Out of 44 stocks listed, 39 exchanged hands of which 13 advanced, 22 declined and 4 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 12.8 1.5 4.2 41.1 10,400 DSM 20 13.2 1.5 4.2 34.1 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.9 1.5 3.8 980.8 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.2 1.4 5.8 22.7 8,900 UAE (DFM) 10.7 1.2 4.4 86.1 Kuwait (KSE) 17.2 1.0 4.4 29.2 8,400 29/Feb Oman (MSM) 11.3 1.3 4.3 6.6 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.2 0.4 4.9 0.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Intl. Services Ooredoo Qsc Al Khalij Comm. Bank Qatar Navigation Qatar Islamic Bank Top Losers Al Ahli Bank MERS Qatar Insurance Co Islamic Holding Group QGMD Close Price 37.1 84.9 16.8 88.0 93.2 1.0 1.6 0.3 1.0 0.7 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.8 (28.1) 13.2 (6.5) (7.4) (12.7) (52.4) (9.9) (22.6) (9.7) (13.1) 41.5 205.0 75.0 66.3 11.7 (1.1) (4.0) (1.3) (1.1) (0.2) (2.6) (1.9) (1.7) (1.6) (1.4) (5.4) (6.8) 7.9 (15.8) (14.5) (9.0) (14.0) (8.7) (46.3) (38.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 861.1 13.1 163.6 10.9 37.0 9.5 8.5 9.2 29.3 10.8 28.5 0.9 66.1 16.0 52.3 12.3 24.8 14.9 108.2 NA Qatar DSM Index 10,900 20.0 9,664.9 10.0 14/Mar 28/Mar 11/Apr Index Volume (mn) 25/Apr 9/May 0.0 23/May Index Value Closing Level 2,598.0 6,449.0 3,034.8 4,126.2 2,377.5 1,077.4 2,491.6 1D Change (%) 0.4 (0.8) 0.4 (1.2) (0.6) 1.5 0.4 Buy (%) 56.6 14.7 71.3 11.2 17.5 28.7 Sell (%) 47.2 14.4 61.6 13.8 24.6 38.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 25 , 2016 industries park in Oman. The contracting firm will start work on the first phase of the park after one month and the whole project will be completed after two years. The Park will accommodate 2,400 workshops, automobile showrooms, building material shops, 450 office space and 1,400 residential units. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS     US new single-family home sales recorded their biggest gain in 24 years in April-16. New home sales jumped 16.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000 units, the highest level since January-08. Data for February-16 and March-16 were revised to show 39,000 more units sold than previously reported. (Source: Reuters)  UK public-sector net borrowing (PSNB) requirement was GBP 6.6bn for April-16, higher than the consensus forecast of GBP 6.3bn, and the March-16 total was revised up by GBP 1.9bn to GBP 6.1bn. The PSNB excluding public-sector banks fell slightly to GBP 7.2bn for April-16 from GBP 7.5bn the previous year. (Source: Investing) State-owned companies Petroleum Development Oman and Nama Group (formerly known as Electricity Holding Group) have signed an agreement for the speedy implementation of a more integrated and coordinated power grid across the sultanate. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Germany's economic sentiment weakened for the first time in three months. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped to 6.4 In May-16 from 11.2 in April-16. (Source: Investing) Bahrain Telecommunications Co (Batelco) is no longer in talks to buy Maltese telecom company GO, Batelco reported. The company said negotiations had been for it to buy as much as 100% of GO but did not provide further details. (Source: Arabian Business)  SSH, a specialist in master planning, infrastructure, building design, construction supervision and project management, has announced plans to invest further in the development of its Bahrain office. The company said the expansion will increase staff numbers, including senior executives, by 40 personnel. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Hempel Kuwait, leading paint manufacturer, said that it will increase its production with the opening of a 20,000- sq-m factory in 2017, with an expected production capacity of 19mn litres in two shifts. French business confidence weakened in May-16 as export demand weakened sharply. The manufacturing business confidence index fell to 104 in May-16 from a revised 105 in April-16. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS         Dubai retained its position as the second most important international shopping destination globally for the fifth consecutive year, according to CBRE. Dubai has a presence of 57% of international retailers, second to London at 57.9% and followed by Shanghai at 54.4%. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Dubai-based DP World expects to expand its sukuk buy-back after receiving offers well above the original target from investors, the company said. The firm conducted a tender to buy back sukuk maturing in 2017 and had received valid offers for notes worth USD 1.1bn by the deadline. (Source: Arabian Business) The bilateral trade between Qatar and Saudi Arabia touched QAR 6.94bn in 2015. Qatar's imports from Saudi Arabia were at QAR 5.11bn while exports stood at QAR 1.83bn in 2015, according Qatar Chamber. (Source: The Peninsula)  Dubai Group is in the process of selling its stake in Shuaa Capital, the CEO of the group said. The firm was also obliged to divest its holdings in EFG Hermes and Bank Muscat this year. Dubai Group holds 11.8% of EFG Hermes and 12.8% of Bank Muscat. (Source: Arabian Business) Seib Insurance and Reinsurance Company, authorized by the Qatar Financial Center Regulatory Authority, has been assigned 'BBB' global scale and 'AA' GCC regional scale rating by S&P's, with a stable outlook. (Source: Gulf Times)  Nokia and Ooredoo Qatar are working together to redefine the future of information and communication system by innovating cutting-edge technologies, which include solutions related to 5G development, microwave transmission, 5G radio, and Internet of Things, according to Head of West Middle East, Nokia. (Source: The Six new Medcare private hospitals are set to launch in the next two years in the UAE, the Chairman and MD of Aster DM Healthcare said. The overall cost of each hospital ranges between USD 40mn (AED 150mn) to USD 54mn (AED 200mn), with approximately 100 beds each. (Source: Arabian Business) Peninsula)  A USD 270mn (AED 1bn) marina development featuring the UAE’s first water homes is to be built in Dubai’s Business Bay. Dubai Holding unveiled plans for Marasi Business Bay, a 12km waterfront scheme comprising shops, restaurants, a 1,250-berth marina and a park. (Source: Arabian Business) Bait Al-Mashura Finance Consultations and Ahmed Khaled Al-Ghanim & Partner Chartered Accountants signed a MoU between them. It is first of its kind in the domain of coordination within the fields of financial and Shari'ah auditing. (Source: The Peninsula)  Dubai Parks and Resorts confirmed that its AED 1.9bn (USD 457mn) rights issue, which was announced on 19th April-16, was oversubscribed 1.25 times, underlining strong investor support. Total subscription amounted to AED 2.1bn. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar Ministry of Administrative Development, Labour and Social Affairs is working on a new electronic format of the employment contract for expatriate workers that need to be signed in the home country before arriving in Qatar. (Source: Gulf News)  Oil markets are rebalancing but crude is not at a fair price, according to the Minister of Energy and the current OPEC President. He also said that a minimum price of USD 65 a barrel is badly needed at the moment. (Source: Gulf Times)  The total trading value in the Qatar's Real Estate transactions contracts reached QAR 529mn from 15th-19th May 2016, according to the Land Registry Department of the Ministry of Justice. (Source: The number of Saudis visiting Dubai is expected to reach 2.5mn in the next few years, said CEO of the Dubai Corporation for Tourism and Commerce Marketing. About 1.5mn Saudi tourists visited the emirate in 2015. The number is expected to balloon by 60% in the next four years. (Source: Arabian Business) Saudi Arabian Industrial Investments Company and GE have signed a MoU to co-invest in strategic sectors that will help develop and localise industrial value chains. Joint investments of USD 1bn will be rolled out by 2017, in addition of USD 2bn to drive projects in water, energy, aviation, digital and other sectors from 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  (Source: Trade Arabia) Sandan Development has signed an agreement with Towell Construction & Company to construct the first integrated light QNA)  Minister of Energy and Industry recently presented ExxonMobil Qatar with the 2015 Qatarisation Certificate for the most improved organization in the category of supporting student sponsorship. (Source: Gulf News)  Qatar Stock Exchange announces trading suspension on Qatar Fuel Company (woqod) shares on 25th May-16 due to its EGM being held on that day. (Source: QSE) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 25 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1171 USD/QAR 3.6413 109.9900 EUR/QAR 4.0677 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4666 JPY/QAR 0.0331 USD/CHF 0.9934 GBP/QAR 5.3403 USD/CAD 1.3123 CHF/QAR 3.6655 AUD/USD 0.7183 CAD/QAR 2.7747 NZD/USD 0.6738 AUD/QAR 2.6155 USD/INR 67.2550 INR/QAR 0.0541 USD/TRY 2.9462 TRY/QAR 1.2359 USD/ZAR 15.6595 ZAR/QAR 0.2325 USD/BRL 3.5716 BRL/QAR 1.0195 FX Commentary The US dollar surged yesterday, on increased expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in the near future. The USD hit its highest level in nearly 10 weeks against the EUR. The greenback rebounded against the JPY and was trading about 0.68% higher towards the end. The USD also touched a 10-week high against the CHF. The AUD also slipped about 0.61% against its US counterpart. The Commerce Department data released yesterday showed new US single-family home sales surged to a more than eight-year high in April and prices reached a record high, bolstering the USD further. The dollar index that measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, touched an eight-week high of 95.647, yesterday. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.39 0.40 0.45 0.66 1.30 (0.40) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.71 1.98 SAIBOR NA NA 1.86 2.15 2.36 EIBOR 0.27 0.36 0.67 1.11 1.68 BMIBOR 0.45 0.65 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.38% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.21% 2.54% 2.54% 1.29% 1.57% 1.84% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.94% 2.63% 0.74% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 20.9 0.4 Turkey 277.0 22.8 UK 34.0 17.4 Brazil 355.8 (67.7) Germany 19.4 6.1 Egypt 471.8 6.1 France 38.3 10.4 Abu Dhabi 93.0 19.5 Italy 128.9 30.5 Bahrain 371.0 30.9 Greece 985.5 48.2 Dubai 220.0 14.5 Russia 262.6 (4.0) Qatar 105.0 30.9 Japan 34.5 (17.0) Saudi Arabia 158.0 6.0 1.96% 1.66% 2.0% 2.22% 2.16% 1.05% 1.0% 0.88% 2.64% 1.72% 1.52% 1.36% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 9:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Period Survey Jun 9.7 11:00 Germany 11:00 9.7 IFO Business Climate May 106.8 106.6 Germany IFO Current Assessment May 113.3 113.2 11:00 Germany IFO Expectations May 100.8 100.4 11:00 Italy Industrial Orders MoM Mar -- 0.70% 11:00 Italy Industrial Orders NSA YoY 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 16:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD 16:00 Russia CPI WoW 16:45 US Markit US Services PMI 16:45 US Markit US Composite PMI 17:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision 2:50 Japan PPI Services YoY 2:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 2:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 2:50 Japan Prior Mar -- 3.80% May-20th -- (1.60%) Mar 0.50% 0.40% May-23rd -- 2.80% May-23rd -- 0.10% May P 53 52.8 May P -- 52.4 May-25th 0.50% 0.50% Apr 0.20% 0.20% May-20th -- ¥1121.8b May-20th -- ¥348.4b May-20th -- ¥71.7b Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 25 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.1 0.0 8.4 1.6 6.1 5.3 2.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.6 6.6 2.2 5.4 3.7 4.9 4.3 4.3 5.0 0.0 9.0 4.7 4.6 5.0 7.3 2.8 5.1 5.6 3.8 3.7 2.5 7.3 3.8 4.6 3.9 5.1 3.0 2.8 6.9 3.2 7.0 2.9 2.0 8.1 4.2 3.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.7 2.0 5.4 5.8 5.1 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.8 1.0 2.2 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.7 3.0 3.4 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.7 3.6 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.2 2.6 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.9 2.8 0.7 2.9 1.6 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 2.6 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.6 9.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.3 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.7 11.6 9.9 26.3 10.4 20.0 24.8 16.3 11.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 13.5 7.2 12.9 13.1 12.8 14.1 8.2 19.4 14.7 23.4 10.5 11.3 14.5 19.6 9.0 14.5 4.7 12.3 10.2 26.9 26.5 13.3 9.6 22.2 10.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.5 18.4 12.8 9.2 11.6 12.6 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 5.3 10.3 4.7 5.7 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 27.8 70.7 20.0 36.0 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.6 37.0 22.3 35.7 67.4 16.5 33.3 17.3 12.2 92.5 61.0 134.9 11.1 103.0 209.0 35.0 153.1 11.9 11.1 58.1 87.4 13.1 36.1 97.6 89.0 18.3 201.1 49.6 40.9 87.4 25.4 19.5 76.3 48.0 57.9 31.3 17.3 13.7 18.6 83.3 11.2 60.0 23.1 87.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the inf ormation provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4