GCC Daily Market Update - 26 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 26 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,164.7 18,261.5 4,858.9 6,909.4 10,627.0 4,488.7 79,756.4 16,754.0 23,686.5 3,033.9 28,668.2 (12.5) (131.0) (32.5) (2.0) (47.2) (21.1) (39.5) (53.6) (73.3) (8.4) (104.9) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) (0.0) (0.4) (0.5) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.3) (0.8) 1.8 1.9 0.3 1.1 5.0 (0.8) 3.1 (1.7) 0.8 5.9 4.8 5.8 10.7 (1.1) (3.2) 11.2 (12.0) 8.1 (14.3) 9.8 10,435.2 5,913.0 4,497.2 3,491.7 5,410.2 5,768.8 1,137.1 1,525.0 2,981.1 22.7 (35.9) (18.0) (21.9) 4.4 2.7 2.6 (0.0) 0.0 0.2 (0.6) (0.4) (0.6) 0.1 0.1 0.2 (0.0) 0.0 (5.0) (2.7) 0.6 (0.4) (0.2) 0.6 (0.4) (0.4) 0.9 0.1 (14.5) 4.4 10.8 (3.6) 6.7 (6.5) 5.4 6.4 45.9 44.5 3.0 1,337.5 219.3 (1.8) (1.8) (0.0) (3.2) 0.5 (3.7) (4.0) (1.2) (0.2) 0.2 (1.6) 0.2 3.2 2.3 5.9 24.1 21.0 27.4 26.2 2.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks closed lower on Friday on back of profit booking following a Fed and BoJ-fueled rally during the week. Plunge in oil prices and disappointing Eurozone data further supported the downside. US Indices slipped on back of weak manufacturing PMI. Plunge in Energy shares also dragged the index lower. Tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged 0.7% dragged down by Apple Inc. amid speculation over lower iPhone demand however losses were capped by gains in Twitter which surged amid reports of its acquisition. European stocks decline as Euro region PMI declined to a 20 month low raising fresh concerns about regional stability in the wake of the Brexit vote. Germany’s DAX plunged 0.4% on sharp decline in service activity which offset sustained growth in manufacturing. In Asia Japan’s Nikkei edged down 0.3% on back of profit booking. GCC Gulf indices closed on a mixed note on Sunday. UAE and Saudi Arabian indices fell on back of drop in Brent prices, which plunged on signs that Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to disagree over output limits ahead of a meeting next week aimed at freezing production. Saudi Arabia’s Index fell 0.6% dragged down by petrochemical shares with index major SABIC declining 2.4%, while Abu Dhabi’s index retreated 0.4% on profit booking. Dubai’s Index edged 0.6% lower with Dubai Parks and Resorts falling 2.4%. Qatar QE index opened the week on a strong note, despite a plunge in oil prices on Friday. The buying activity was largely concentrated in the Industrials and Real estate stocks. Foreign institutions and Gulf Institutions turned net buyers on the bourse, with selling pressure from local retail investors turned weak. In terms of volumes, Industrials and Banking stocks accounted for more than 70% of the total volumes, with major movers being Industries Qatar, Aamal Company, Ezdan, Mazaya Qatar, Qatari Investors Group, Qatar Islamic Bank and Dlala. Out of 44 stocks listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 14 gained, 23 declined and 02 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.8 1.6 3.9 48.3 DSM 20 14.5 1.6 3.9 29.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 13.9 1.4 4.0 545.3 UAE (ADX) 12.0 1.5 5.4 11.6 UAE (DFM) 12.5 1.3 3.9 189.0 Kuwait (KSE) 18.6 1.0 4.4 19.5 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.0 4.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 0.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khaleej Takaful Dlala Holding Industries Qatar Aamal Co Qatar Islamic Bank Top Losers Al Khalij Comm. Bank Qatar & Oman Invest. National Leasing Qatar Ind. Manufactur Qatar Islamic Insurance Close Price 22.9 22.9 104.7 14.8 105.0 0.8 0.8 1.8 0.2 1.5 3.5 3.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 (25.0) 23.9 (5.8) 6.0 (1.6) (34.6) 14.9 (15.3) 11.4 (9.4) 17.1 10.8 16.0 42.0 54.0 (0.9) (0.2) (0.2) (0.6) (0.7) (5.1) (1.7) (1.5) (1.4) (1.3) (5.1) (12.2) 13.6 5.4 (25.0) (20.0) (20.9) (11.3) (1.3) (27.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 1.0 117.0 332.2 9.9 52.0 21.0 NA 15.9 14.6 11.9 0.2 9.5 3.9 29.1 40.6 NA 67.5 11.0 2.9 12.0 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 29/Jun 30.0 10,435.2 20.0 10.0 0.0 13/Jul 27/Jul 10/Aug Index Volume (mn) 24/Aug 7/Sep 21/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,865.1 6,345.0 3,142.7 4,578.5 2,467.0 1,200.9 2,460.0 1D Change (%) (0.4) (0.2) 0.9 (0.8) 0.7 (0.6) (0.1) Buy (%) 28.1 18.2 46.3 10.1 43.6 53.7 Sell (%) 30.7 43.4 74.1 8.1 17.8 25.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 26 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS   Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) lowered its 2016-17 economic growth forecasts for Oman and other GCC countries, as the economies are further weighed down by lower oil prices in 2016. The Fund revised its forecast for Oman's real GDP growth to 1.9% in 2016, down 0.8% from its April-16 forecast. The AMF expects Oman's economy to grow by 2.5% in 2017. (Source: Muscat Daily)  Oman Development Bank (ODB) said in a statement that it has financed 53,482 projects with a total value of OMR 424.7mn from January-1997 till the end of June-2016, representing a growth rate of 749%. The annual rate of the projects funded by ODB is estimated to be 2,674 projects, with annual average value of funds invested is OMR 21.2mn representing an annual growth of 39%. (Source: Times of Oman)  Kuwait’s credit growth registered a strong uptick, coming in at 8.1% YoY in June-16. Total credit rose by KWD 754mn during the period. Healthy gains in lending for the purchase of securities and business credit, notably credit to the oil & gas and industry sectors, were behind the strong performance. (Source: Arab Times Online)  Kuwait Projects Company (KIPCO) said in a statement that the construction has begun on its USD 2.0bn to USD 2.5bn real estate project in Kuwait. Banks will provide financing for half of the project, with KIPCO funding the remainder directly. Kuwait's Burgan Bank will be among the main lenders to the project. (Source: Reuters) Algeria’s oil minister said that OPEC members and Russia have substantial issues to work out before making a deal to limit oil production, but he still expect to make progress toward a comprehensive deal at the International Energy Forum in Algeria. (Source: WSJ)  Tax cooperation at international and multi-lateral level will be in focus alongside the global economy in a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of 20 developed and developing nations in Washington on 6th October-16, Russia's Deputy Finance Minister said. (Source: Reuters)  The introduction of new rule under Basel-3 that would force banks to set aside more capital, could choke off private lending and hurt growth prospects, German Finance Minister and his French counterpart said. (Source: Reuters)   The split at the Federal Reserve over when to next raise interest rates appears to hinge largely on disagreements over the labor market outlook. The dissenters included Fed President of Boston, Kansas City and Cleveland, who were of the view that sharply falling unemployment could create a spike in inflation and can trigger a recession. (Source: Reuters) French economy contracted by 0.1% QoQ in Q2-16 compared to 0.7% QoQ in Q1-16, according to the INSEE national statistics agency. Consumer spending, the driver of France's economy, declined 0.1% QoQ, while inventories fell sharply by 0.7% QoQ for the period. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey’s sovereign credit rating was cut to junk by Moody’s, which concluded a review initiated after an unsuccessful coup attempt on July 15. The agency cited rising risks related to Turkey’s external financing needs and a weakening in its credit fundamentals as economic growth slows. (Source: Bloomberg) QATAR NEWS  (Source: Gulf Times)  GCC NEWS  GCC computer and electronic products manufacturing industry has achieved a CAGR of 4.8% since 2011, according to a report by the Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting. The private sector’s contribution was significant in meeting the growing demands on these products. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE-South Korean trade stood at AED 122.7bn from 2010 to 2015. Imports to UAE stood at AED115.8bn, while exports from the nation was AED 5.6bn, according to the UAE-South Korea customs committee. (Source: Gulf News)  More than 85% of the work at the AED 4bn (USD 1.1bn) Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City in Abu Dhabi has been completed and is on track for handover to the emirate's health services company SEHA in Q4-17, according to a report by Abu Dhabi General Services Company. Qatar Financial Market Authority (QFMA) announced that after evaluating governance reports issued by listed companies it was clear that 90.6% of them comply with the corporate governance code, 8.9% were in non-compliance and another 0.5% were non-applicable. Qatar’s power capacity is expected to reach 13,000MW by 2018 compared to the existing capacity of 8,800MW and will cater to the country’s ever growing development needs, the Managing Director and General Manager of Qatar Electricity and Water Company said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Indonesia will be holding discussions with Qatari government ministries and officials from the private sector to boost bilateral relations with Qatar in the fields of trade, tourism, and investment, Indonesia’s Ambassador to Qatar said. (Source: Gulf Times)  United Development Company awarded a major piling works contract to Navayuga Engineering Company at its Al Mutahidah Towers project in Viva Bahriya at The Pearl Qatar. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Mall of Qatar announced that it will generate about 8,000 new jobs nationwide once the facility is operational in Q4-16. With a total area of over 500,000m2, when fully operational the complex will have over 500 shops including over 100 restaurants. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha Metro Project represents the main backbone for an integrated public transport system, the Minister of Transport and Communications said. He further added that, Qatar Rail's projects such as the Lusail Light Rail Transit network and the Long Distance Passenger and Freight Rail transportation system will boost the use of public transport services. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE’s Compareit4me, a financial comparison website received a total of USD 2.4mn in investment through its latest round of bridge funding. The funds will be used to build out Compareit4me’s recently launched insurance business in the UAE. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) said it has taken measures to bolster financial stability in the country by giving lenders about SAR 20bn (USD 5.3bn) to ease borrowing costs. The funds are in the form of time deposits on behalf of government entities, along with introduction of 7 day and 28 day repurchase agreements. (Source:  Ahli Bank is finalizing a three-year club loan financing worth USD 180mn. The fundraising process is arranged by the borrower and the facility is expected to be signed in one or two weeks. The new facility would partly refinance a USD 200mn three-year loan, the bank raised in September-14. (Source: Reuters) Bloomberg)  The Communications Regulatory Authority (CRA) has censured Ooredoo-Qatar for not giving rival firms access to its infrastructure. CRA has ordered Ooredoo to fulfill all existing requests for access to its infrastructure and to submit a monthly report detailing the number of requests for access, with QAR 15 mn performance bond to ensure its compliance with the order. (Source: Doha News)  Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Transportation announced the addition of 63 new aircraft to Saudi Arabian Airline’s existing fleet. The new airplanes will be used for passenger transport on national and international routes. (Source: Saudi Gazette) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 26 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1256 USD/QAR 3.6416 101.0200 EUR/QAR 4.0990 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2996 JPY/QAR 0.0360 USD/CHF 0.9704 GBP/QAR 4.7326 USD/CAD 1.3172 CHF/QAR 3.7527 AUD/USD 0.7623 CAD/QAR 2.7647 NZD/USD 0.7242 AUD/QAR 2.7760 USD/INR 66.1550 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 2.9689 TRY/QAR 1.2266 USD/ZAR 13.7176 ZAR/QAR 0.2655 USD/BRL 3.2440 BRL/QAR 1.1226 FX Commentary The dollar index got a boost on Friday supported by hawkish views from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, however the currency paired most of its gains, closing flat for the day as investors remained cautious ahead of Monday's US presidential debate. CAD dropped 1% against its US counterpart after surprisingly weak inflation and retail sales data that suggested Canada could be facing lower growth and higher unemployment. EUR closed largely unchanged as a mixed set of manufacturing and service sector data from the euro zone had little impact of the currency. GBP fell 1% against USD, weighed by further Brexit uncertainty after comments from UK Prime Minister Theresa May contrasted a statement by Foreign Minister Boris Johnson on when the country would begin its exit from the European Union. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.45 0.52 0.85 1.56 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.06) QAIBOR 1.01 1.13 1.37 1.59 1.94 SAIBOR NA NA 2.07 2.35 2.65 EIBOR 0.35 0.46 0.74 1.26 1.78 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 1.00 1.38 1.85 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 3.85% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.90% 2.23% 2.23% 1.03% 1.29% 1.57% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.99% 2.33% 0.53% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.3 4.7 Turkey 247.9 (10.6) UK 32.4 (5.6) Brazil 273.2 (114.3) Germany 17.9 (2.4) Egypt 477.7 (22.8) France 27.5 (6.5) Abu Dhabi 68.1 (22.5) 137.0 9.9 Bahrain 383.4 5.6 2.66% 1.82% 1.49% 2.0% 2.14% 1.01% 1.0% 0.0% 0.79% 2 Yrs 1.46% 1.30% 1.18% 1.80% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,018.3 (130.3) Dubai 152.0 (56.0) Russia 211.3 (78.6) Qatar 88.1 (3.4) Japan 35.5 (11.0) Saudi Arabia 149.1 (6.4) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 08:00 Japan Leading Index CI Jul F -- Prior 100 08:00 Japan Coincident Index Jul F -- 112.8 11:00 Germany IFO Business Climate Sep 106.3 106.2 11:00 Germany IFO Current Assessment Sep 112.9 112.8 11:00 Germany IFO Expectations Sep 100.1 100.1 11:00 Italy Retail Sales MoM Jul 0.00% 0.20% 11:00 Italy Retail Sales YoY Jul 0.30% 0.80% 11:30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Aug 37100 37662 17:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Sep-23rd -- 56.7 17:00 US New Home Sales Aug 600k 654k 17:00 US New Home Sales MoM Aug (8.30%) 12.40% 17:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Sep (3) (6.2) 19:00 France Total Jobseekers Aug 3501.6k 3506.6k 19:00 France Jobseekers Net Change Aug (5) (19.1) 02:50 Japan PPI Services YoY Aug 0.30% 0.40% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 26 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.8 0.0 8.1 1.7 5.9 5.0 3.1 0.0 4.1 6.2 1.9 5.6 3.4 5.6 4.3 5.0 5.1 0.0 8.9 4.3 4.9 5.1 6.5 2.9 4.8 6.1 4.1 3.5 2.5 7.1 3.8 4.4 4.5 4.9 2.2 3.0 7.4 2.6 6.4 2.9 2.0 7.6 4.0 3.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 5.3 5.8 5.2 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.2 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.3 0.8 1.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.6 3.3 2.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.8 0.6 2.6 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.9 14.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.5 12.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 45.4 11.7 12.4 11.1 29.2 11.4 21.9 25.5 12.5 10.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.2 6.6 12.7 14.6 18.0 15.9 7.9 18.3 15.1 21.6 11.1 11.0 15.5 20.1 11.6 20.1 4.4 12.0 13.0 16.6 26.6 13.4 15.1 21.8 12.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.4 15.7 13.1 9.9 11.9 13.7 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 40.1 38.5 22.9 37.3 62.1 17.1 35.3 16.4 10.8 104.6 64.7 156.9 10.8 89.7 208.5 30.1 149.2 10.6 11.3 63.3 82.5 14.7 34.5 104.6 82.5 17.1 213.4 49.4 42.0 87.5 22.1 20.3 89.0 44.8 54.0 34.5 17.4 13.9 19.8 99.5 10.8 53.3 23.4 85.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4