GCC Daily Market Update - 18 October

GCC Daily Market Update - 18 October
Ard, Islam, Mal, Salam
Ard, Islam, Mal, Salam
Organisation Tags (20)
Masraf Al Rayan
Gulf International
CPI Financial
Qatar Islamic Bank
Alinma Bank
Kuwait International Bank
National Bank of Bahrain
Bank Islam Malaysia
Al Rajhi Bank
GFH Financial Group
Gulf International Bank
Doha Bank
Ahli Bank
Bloomberg
Emirates NBD Bank
Central Bank of Bahrain
Barwa
Najran Cement
Qatar National Bank
Qatar Financial Centre
Transcription
- DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 18 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,126.5 18,086.4 4,796.2 6,947.6 10,503.6 4,450.2 77,437.6 16,900.1 23,037.5 3,041.2 27,530.0 (6.5) (52.0) (12.3) (66.0) (76.8) (20.7) (116.6) 43.8 (195.8) (22.6) (143.6) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.9) (0.7) (0.5) (0.2) 0.3 (0.8) (0.7) (0.5) (1.9) (1.2) (1.6) 0.7 (0.1) 0.0 1.2 2.7 (1.1) 1.2 (1.2) 4.0 3.8 4.4 11.3 (2.2) (4.0) 8.0 (11.2) 5.1 (14.1) 5.4 10,425.9 5,564.7 4,220.4 3,272.4 5,287.1 5,581.1 1,137.5 1,492.6 2,907.8 58.2 (68.0) (95.2) (29.5) (22.0) (70.0) (3.5) (0.3) (10.5) 0.6 (1.2) (2.2) (0.9) (0.4) (1.2) (0.3) (0.0) (0.4) (0.1) (1.0) (5.7) (5.8) (2.1) (2.5) (1.1) (1.9) (2.4) (0.0) (19.5) (2.0) 3.9 (5.8) 3.2 (6.4) 1.9 4.0 51.5 49.9 3.2 1,254.4 210.7 (0.4) (0.4) (0.0) 1.3 (0.4) (0.8) (0.8) (1.3) 0.1 (0.2) 5.6 4.1 12.3 (4.5) (4.5) 38.9 35.6 39.6 18.3 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg Global Most global stocks fell on Monday. US indices fell, weighed down by plunge in Consumer-discretionary and Energy Stocks. However the markets pared some losses on the back of upbeat earnings reports from Hasbro & Bank of America. A statement of caution by Fed vice Chair over the negative impacts of sustained low rates further weighed on the markets. European markets closed in the red following the cautious tone set in both Asia and in the US. Investors remained cautious ahead of the ECB meet, which would decide on the future of Quantitative Easing- due to end in March 2017. Japan’s Nikkei bucked the broader trend and rose 0.3% on the back of gains in financial stocks. Hang sang fell 0.8% on news that Chinese authorities detained employees at casino operator Crown Resorts Ltd. for suspected gambling crimes. GCC Most of the Gulf markets fell on Monday. Saudi Arabia’s Index plunged 1.2% as a set of disappointing Q3 earnings weighed on the market. Alinma Bank, the most heavily traded stock dropped 2.9% after the company reported a 16.8% fall in Q3 net profit, while Najran Cement also lost 3.1% over disappointing Q3 results. Petrochemical shares relatively outperformed the market. Abu Dhabi's index plunged 2.2% dragged down by steep decline in First Gulf Bank, which lost 4.9%. Dubai's index fell 0.9% in a broad-based decline, although the two most heavily traded stocks, GFH Financial and builder Drake & Scull, rose 3.9% and 1.1%, respectively. Qatar QE index outperformed its peers rising 0.6% mainly on across the board buying, especially in Real Estate (1.1%), Banks and financial services (0.8%) and Telecom (0.5%) sector. Institutional Investors were the net buyers on the bourse. In terms of volume, Banking, Telecom and Real estate sectors constituted more than 72% of the total traded. Out of the 44 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 12 declined, 28 advanced and 1 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.7 1.6 3.9 47.4 DSM 20 14.5 1.6 3.9 30.1 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 13.3 1.3 4.2 583.7 UAE (ADX) 11.3 1.4 5.8 30.0 UAE (DFM) 11.7 1.2 4.2 57.0 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.0 4.5 46.2 Oman (MSM) 10.7 1.1 5.1 16.7 Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 0.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Warehousing Co Islamic Holding Group Zad Holding Co Qatar Industrial Manuf. Qatar National Bank Top Losers Mannai Corporation Qatar Navigation Gulf Intl Services Aamal Co Doha Insurance Co Close Price 58.0 61.4 78.7 42.0 157.9 2.4 1.2 1.5 0.8 2.4 4.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.9 (22.0) (7.2) 5.4 8.3 (6.6) (29.7) (16.3) (1.2) 0.8 80.0 85.7 34.5 14.9 19.7 (2.0) (1.2) (0.4) (0.2) (0.1) (2.4) (1.4) (1.0) (1.0) (0.6) (16.1) (9.8) (33.1) 6.1 (6.2) (19.7) (11.6) (49.3) 2.4 (17.9) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 282.5 15.8 1.5 3.8 178.8 15.5 297.5 10.3 11.0 10.8 16.1 7.7 11.6 9.8 50.2 18.0 1.1 14.6 6.7 11.3 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 17/Jul 30.0 20.0 10,431.3 10.0 0.0 31/Jul 14/Aug 28/Aug Index Volume (mn) 11/Sep 25/Sep 9/Oct Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,888.7 6,169.0 3,166.1 4,534.4 2,413.8 1,202.5 2,493.9 1D Change (%) 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 Buy (%) 19.3 28.0 47.3 7.1 45.6 52.7 Sell (%) 30.5 26.5 57.0 8.4 34.7 43.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
- DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 18 , 2016 Q3-16 net profit shrank 17% YoY to SAR 312mn as total operating expenses increased due to higher financing and investments provision. GLOBAL NEWS The Fed vice Chair said that low economic growth has hindered the central bank from effectively fighting recession and US economy may face longer and deeper recessions in case if current rates persist. (Source: Argaam) Oman’s M1 money supply declined 1.3% YoY and 3.9% MoM to OMR 5.2bn in August-16. Oman's M2 money supply accelerated 9.5% YoY and 1.2% MoM to OMR 16.0bn (Source: CBO) (Source: Reuters) US industrial production rose by 0.1% YoY in September-16 as manufacturing and mining output rose 0.2% YoY and 0.4% YoY respectively for the period. However, utilities production dropped 1.0% YoY in September-16, despite unseasonably warm weather during the month. (Source: Reuters) Oman National Engineering Investment Company (Oneic) has won contracts worth OMR 856,108 (USD 2.2mn) from Mazoon Electricity Company for construction of incoming feeders and 11 outgoing feeders for the new Samad primary sub-station in Al Shaqiya North Governorate. (Source: Trade Arabia) Fitch said that the continued slide in GBP will increase pressure on some UK corporate ratings, particularly in the Retail and Airlines sectors. The agency further added that currency hedging and other self-help measures will limit the near-term financial impact but ratings could be affected if companies are unable to rebalance capital structures or limit the impact on the cost of imported goods when hedges expire. (Source: Fitch) Oman’s conventional bank assets declined 1.8% YoY and 6.5% MoM to OMR 27.4bn in August-16. Total credit increased 8.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM to OMR 19.5 bn in August-16. (Source: CBO) The Central Bank of Bahrain’s monthly issue of Sukuk Al-Salam (issue dated 19th October-16) amounting to BHD 43mn, with expected return of 2.02% and maturity of 91 days, has been fully subscribed. (Source: CBB) Aluminium Bahrain has secured a syndicated seven years term loan facility worth USD 1.5bn for the Line 6 Project, which will boost the company’s annual metal production capacity by 540,000 tonnes. The loan carries an interest margin of 325 bps per annum over the LIBOR. Gulf International Bank, J P Morgan Limited, and National Bank of Bahrain acted as global coordinators. (Source: Trade Arabia) Bank of England deputy governor said that the rules governing pension funds need to be tweaked as British businesses have shown little sign of creating fewer jobs or investing less as a result of this growing pension liabilities. (Source: Reuters) Eurozone consumer price inflation rose by 0.4% YoY in in September16, as energy prices rose 3.0% YoY while food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 0.7% YoY. On a monthly basis the consumer prices for the bloc rose 0.4%. (Source: Reuters) Moody’s said that Japanese banks will see only a limited deterioration in their profitability, following the introduction of a negative interest rate policy by the Central Bank and the subsequent introduction of a yield curve control policy in September-16. (Source: Moody’s) Expats who wish to bring family members to Kuwait are now required to have a monthly salary of USD 990 (KWD 300), Director General of Residency said. The conditions also prevent parents over 50 years old to be granted a visit visa. (Source: Arabian Business) National Bank of Kuwait reported a 6.4% YoY rise in Q3-16 net profit to KWD 68.7mn (USD 227.2mn). The net profit is mainly attributed to rise in net interest income by 5.9% YoY to KWD 119mn. (Source: Reuters) Kuwait International Bank reported an increase of 15% YoY in net profit to KWD 13.5mn in 9M-16 due to an increase in net financing income. EPS for 9M-16 stood at 14.42 fils, up from 12.59 fils a year ago. (Source: CPI Financial) Iran oil minister said that the country is planning to boost its oil output to 4.3mn barrels a day in 2016, as it is seeks about USD 200bn of investment in its Oil, Natural gas and Petrochemicals industries to raise production and sales, potentially complicating the OPEC’s plan to cut supply in an effort to prop up prices. (Source: Bloomberg) QATAR NEWS GCC NEWS Emirates NBD posted a drop of 1% YoY in net profit to AED 1.66bn in Q3-16. The fall in net profit can be attributed to a 2% YoY drop in Net interest income, which fell due to higher cost of fixed deposits and wholesale funding. (Source: Reuters) Union National Bank reported a 15.4% drop in net profit to AED 410mn (USD 111.7mn) in Q3-16, compared to AED 483mn in the same period a year ago, due to the poor performance in top line. Bank’s Net interest and income from Islamic financing dropped to AED 667 mn in Q3-16 as compared to AED 770mn in Q3-15. (Source: Bloomberg) Dubai has achieved the 100,000 hotel room milestone and expects 34,000 new room additions in the course of next two years, according to the Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (Dubai Tourism). (Source: Arabian Business) Saudi Arabia's imports tumbled 32.7% YoY to SAR 33.5bn while nonoil exports dropped 27.2% to SAR11.8 bn in July-16, according to Central Department of Statistics and Information. Non-oil exports traditionally account for around 12% of the overall exports of Saudi Arabia. (Source: Zawya) Saudi Arabia’s Al Rajhi Bank reported a 16.7% YoY rise in Q3-16 net profit to SAR 2.01bn (USD 536.1mn). The bank positive performance is attributed to a 16.8% YoY rise in net special commission income to SAR 2.91bn. (Source: Arabian Business) Alinma Bank reported an increase of 2.6% YoY in 9M-16 net profit to SAR 1.1bn, due to a rise in total operating income by 4%. The bank’s Qatar has delayed the start-up of the first phase of its Barzan Gas project which was due to start in November-16, because of a leak discovered in the upstream gas pipeline. (Source: Reuters) Qatar's central bank is offering QAR 3bn (USD 825mn) of government bonds in its third domestic bond sale this year. The offer is made up of QAR 1.5bn of three-year bonds at a fixed rate of 2.25%, QAR 1bn of five-year debt at 2.75%, QAR 250mn of seven-year debt at 3.25% and QAR 250mn of 10-year debt at 3.75%. (Source: QCB) Qatar based Masraf Al Rayan reported a 1.3% fall in net profit to QAR 509mn (USD 139.8mn) in Q3-16 compared to QAR 515.6mn in the same period a year ago. EPS amounted to QAR 2.08 compared to QAR2.02 for the same period of the previous year. (Source: Reuters) Qatar Rail has awarded an order for 139 elevators, escalators and autowalks to be installed at the Lusail Light Rail Transit system to Kone, a global leader in the elevator and escalator industry. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar Financial Centre Authority and Qatar Chamber have signed an MoU to promote bilateral cooperation aimed at achieving joint strategic objectives of enhancing the productivity of the private sector and helping the country diversify from hydrocarbons. (Source: Gulf Times) Qatar Islamic Bank has been recognized by Global Finance as the Best Islamic Retail Bank in the world, on the strength of the bank’s financial performance, usage of cutting-edge banking technologies and its customer-centric approach. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
- DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 18 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1030 USD/QAR 3.6412 103.8900 EUR/QAR 4.0162 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2213 JPY/QAR 0.0350 USD/CHF 0.9890 GBP/QAR 4.4470 USD/CAD 1.3129 CHF/QAR 3.6817 AUD/USD 0.7629 CAD/QAR 2.7734 NZD/USD 0.7134 AUD/QAR 2.7779 USD/INR 66.3900 INR/QAR 0.0548 USD/TRY 3.0960 TRY/QAR 1.1761 USD/ZAR 14.1485 ZAR/QAR 0.2574 USD/BRL 3.2046 BRL/QAR 1.1362 FX Commentary USD closed lower against most major currencies, with dollar index down 0.2% on back of profit booking. Weak US industrial production and manufacturing stats also weighed on the greenback. USD extended losses after Fed Vice Chair said that it is "not that simple" for the Fed to coax interest rates higher. CAD closed higher against the greenback, majorly on back of weakness in the latter. Investors remained cautious as they awaited a Bank of Canada interest rate decision and economic update this week. EUR gained against greenback amidst the growing expectation that European Central Bank will keep the policy rate unchanged at its meet this week. The Japanese yen gained against the greenback, as soft US data, and a decline in European and American equities revived demand for the safehaven currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.54 0.88 1.59 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) 0.99 1.09 1.35 1.62 2.04 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.10 2.39 2.65 EIBOR 0.43 0.49 0.74 1.27 1.83 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.13 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.03% 4.0% 2.01% 2.0% 0.0% 2.38% 2.38% 1.41% 1.72% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.00% 2.53% 1.12% 0.54% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.5 5.7 Turkey 257.1 16.1 UK 35.8 (4.0) Brazil 269.8 (72.2) Germany 18.7 0.4 Egypt 481.8 28.7 France 28.7 (6.7) Abu Dhabi 66.0 (18.8) 139.6 12.0 Bahrain 386.7 19.7 (61.9) 2.53% 2.0% 1.05% 1.0% 0.0% 1.99% 1.68% 1.36% 1.61% 1.43% 1.28% 1.98% Italy 0.71% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,024.5 (112.9) Dubai 146.0 Russia 239.1 (25.9) Qatar 89.0 2.3 Japan 35.0 (7.5) Saudi Arabia 144.0 (3.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:30 UK CPI MoM Sep 0.10% 0.30% 11:30 UK CPI YoY Sep 0.90% 0.60% 11:30 UK CPI Core YoY Sep 1.40% 1.30% 15:30 US CPI MoM Sep 0.30% 0.20% 07:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Aug 0.20% 0.30% sSource: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Emirates Nbd Pjsc 5,156.9 13.8 0.9 1,663.9 (0.5) (12.9) Emirates Nbd Pjsc 5,156.9 13.8 0.9 1,663.9 (0.5) (12.9) Saudi Hollandi Bank NA NA NA 262.8 (46.7) (51.3) Al Rajhi Bank NA NA NA 2,009.0 16.7 (2.1) Union National Bank/Abu Dhab 1,292.3 6.7 6.0 406.6 (15.4) (13.4) Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Co NA NA NA 181.4 (68.0) (39.4) National Shipping Co Of/The NA NA NA 318.4 (37.6) (36.9) Qatar Gas Transport(Nakilat) 786.7 (0.1) 0.2 247.5 (7.0) (4.9) NA NA NA 509.0 (1.3) 0.7 Masraf Al Rayan Source: Bloomberg 3
- DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 18 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 13th October, 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.7 0.0 8.0 1.8 5.5 5.0 2.9 0.0 4.1 6.2 1.9 5.6 3.4 5.9 6.1 4.5 5.2 5.2 0.0 9.0 4.2 5.1 5.4 6.3 2.9 4.7 4.1 3.6 2.4 7.1 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.2 3.1 7.5 2.6 6.5 3.0 2.0 7.7 4.2 3.1 1.9 2.8 2.2 5.3 5.7 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.4 1.1 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.4 1.6 3.1 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.4 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 3.2 2.6 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.7 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.8 14.2 (M) ()س 7.5 (H) (ç) 10.1 12.4 (M) ()س 44.8 11.6 12.4 10.7 28.9 11.2 20.9 7.9 24.5 11.9 10.7 (M) ()س 11.0 14.3 6.2 11.5 15.0 18.2 16.2 18.2 14.9 22.5 11.2 11.0 16.1 20.1 11.7 19.7 4.3 11.8 12.8 16.2 25.6 13.3 15.0 21.1 12.2 (M) ()س 19.2 16.4 13.3 10.1 12.1 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) ()س 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) ()س 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.5 0.4 6.0 4.1 10.4 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) ()س 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.8 1.0 1.9 6.6 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 7.7 2.9 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) ()س 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 77.2 9.9 38.8 34.9 52.6 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 42.7 12.2 21.0 53.8 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 50.2 23.9 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 39.6 39.1 23.1 37.4 59.8 18.1 35.3 17.2 10.7 104.0 64.6 154.9 10.7 85.4 82.5 200.5 28.6 147.5 10.5 11.1 64.0 78.3 15.1 35.0 107.0 17.0 210.3 51.5 42.4 85.0 22.0 20.5 87.4 44.0 53.2 33.7 16.7 13.7 19.6 98.0 10.8 55.7 23.8 87.9 Company االهلي التجاري داللة بنك الدوحة اإلسالمية القابضة الخليجي الريان االجارة األو لQFC المصرف الدولي الوطني قطر بنك قطروعمان البنوك والخدمات المالية الرعاية مجمع المناعي الميرة السينما قطر للوقود الطبية السالم ودام زاد البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية أعمال الخليج الدولية صناعات قطر مسيعيد كهرباء وماء المستثمرين التحويلية االسمنت الصناعات الخليج الدوحة قطر العامة االسالمية التأمين بروة إزدان القابضة مزايا قطر المتحدة للتنمية العقارات كيوتل فودافون قطر االتصاالت مخازن ناقالت المالحة النقل Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4
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