GCC Daily Market Update - 19 October

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 19 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,139.6 18,161.9 4,839.7 7,000.1 10,631.6 4,508.9 78,340.4 16,963.6 23,394.4 3,083.9 28,050.9 13.1 75.5 43.6 52.5 128.0 58.7 902.8 63.5 356.9 42.7 520.9 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.4 1.6 1.4 1.9 (1.3) (0.8) (0.7) 1.5 1.1 1.4 2.4 3.1 0.4 2.6 0.7 4.7 4.2 5.4 12.1 (1.0) (2.8) 9.2 (10.9) 6.8 (12.9) 7.4 10,484.1 5,460.9 4,269.3 3,318.0 5,283.6 5,583.6 1,137.0 1,474.2 2,926.2 58.2 (103.7) 48.9 45.6 (3.5) 2.4 (0.5) (18.4) 18.3 0.6 (1.9) 1.2 1.4 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) (1.2) 0.6 0.5 (2.9) (4.6) (4.5) (2.1) (2.5) (1.1) (3.1) (1.8) 0.5 (21.0) (0.9) 5.3 (5.9) 3.3 (6.5) 2.5 4.6 51.7 50.3 3.3 1,260.8 210.6 0.2 0.4 0.0 6.4 (0.2) 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 (0.1) 6.3 5.2 11.7 (4.0) (4.8) 39.9 37.0 38.9 18.9 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global markets rose on Monday. US indices edged up lifted by better-than-expected corporate results. S&P 500 gained 0.6% lifted by health care stocks with UnitedHealth Group rising 6.9% after the health insurer boosted its earnings guidance for the year and reported strong profit growth. Additionally rising consumer prices added to the optimism in the market. European stocks rose in a broad based rally on prospects of accommodative monetary policy in the upcoming ECB meet. UK’s benchmark gained 0.8% supported by data showing higher than expected inflation numbers. Gains in mining stocks, on back of higher commodities prices further benefitted the index. Asian markets posted strong gains after lower than expected industrial data out of US on Monday, eased fears of an interest rate hike by year end. Strong Chinese economic data showcasing healthy credit growth, further buoyed regional indices. GCC Gulf stocks ended on a mixed note on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s Index plunged 1.9% weighed down by slew of disappointing results. Saudi Arabian Mining Co and National Industrialization Co fell 1.8% and 10%, respectively after the companies posted a weaker than expected earnings. Dubai’s Index rose 1.4% as Builder Arabtec and Union Properties added 3% and 2.3%, respectively. In Abu Dhabi, the index rose 1.2% with First Gulf Bank rising 3.8%. Qatar QE index continued its upward trajectory, ending 0.6% higher on Tuesday. The gains were supported by about six-fold jump in net buying by foreign institutions. Stronger buying interests were seen in industrials, banking and realty counters, reflecting gains in oil prices. The nation’s largest lender added another 1.3% after posting strong results last week. In terms of volumes, industrials, banking and real estate sectors constituted more than 77% of the total traded. Out 41 companies traded, 25 gained, 13 lost and 3 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.8 1.6 3.9 63.5 DSM 20 14.6 1.6 3.9 57.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 13.0 1.3 4.3 680.9 UAE (ADX) 11.4 1.4 5.7 29.9 UAE (DFM) 11.9 1.2 4.1 63.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.2 1.0 4.5 32.0 Oman (MSM) 10.7 1.1 5.1 8.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 1.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Aamal Co Qatar Navigation Qatar Fuel Qsc Al Khalij Com. Bank Qatar National Bank Top Losers Medicare Group Qatar Gen Ins. & Re Islamic Holding Group Al Meera Cons. Goods Gulf Warehousing Co Close Price 15.2 87.3 150.0 18.3 159.9 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.2 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 8.5 (8.1) 9.8 1.6 9.6 4.7 (9.3) 0.2 (14.9) 2.9 102.4 164.0 20.8 18.8 159.0 14.9 9.9 10.9 10.2 11.0 82.2 43.0 60.1 198.9 57.0 (2.7) (1.0) (1.3) (3.6) (1.0) (3.2) (2.3) (2.1) (1.8) (1.7) (31.1) (7.4) (23.6) (9.6) 0.2 (50.6) (19.6) (30.3) (18.3) (9.5) 49.5 0.1 12.8 17.1 82.2 20.1 4.2 291.2 24.8 15.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 24/Jul 30.0 20.0 10,484.1 10.0 0.0 7/Aug 21/Aug 4/Sep Index Volume (mn) 18/Sep 2/Oct 16/Oct Index Value Closing Level 2,907.7 6,173.1 3,188.3 4,524.6 2,428.6 1,206.5 2,492.8 1D Change (%) 0.7 0.1 0.7 (0.2) 0.6 0.3 (0.0) Buy (%) 13.3 12.3 25.6 6.8 67.6 74.4 Sell (%) 27.5 44.6 72.1 7.7 20.2 27.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 19 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS   OPEC’s secretary-general said that he was optimistic that the group will reach a deal in November-16 to limit oil production without too many exemptions for individual countries and without disagreement about output levels. He also reiterated that Russia which is not a member of OPEC was not backtracking on its pledge to contribute to output limits should OPEC reach a deal next month. (Source: Reuters) US consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM in September-16 after rising 0.2% MoM in August-16, according to the Labor Department. The rise in consumer prices were driven by gasoline prices which rose 5.8% MoM and housing rents which gained 0.4% MoM for the same period. (Source: solutions. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Emirate Airlines President said that the airlines could reduce or cut its flights to African cities if current economic and financial challenges on the continent persist. He further added Emirates' load factor for the till 2017 would be in the mid-70% to low-80% range. (Source: Reuters)  Shares of Damac Properties have been certified as Sharia complaint by Dar Al Sharia Islamic Finance Consultancy. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia announced price guidance for its planned three-tranche debut Eurobond. Pricing guidance for the five-year, ten-year and 30year tranches were 160 bps, 185 bps and 235 bps, respectively over US treasuries. Citi Bank, HSBC and JP Morgan are the coordinators of the senior unsecured 144A / Reg S bond. (Source: Reuters)  Moody’s said that rising challenges in the Saudi Arabia’s construction sector will lead to rising nonperforming loans and higher provisioning costs for the country's banks. The agency further said that it expects NPLs to rise to around 2.5% of gross loans in 2017 from around 1.5% estimated as of June-16. (Source: Moody’s)  Oman government is working on a plan to build a large modern automated container terminal D at Sohar Port, with capacity to handle 5mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) per annum. The basic infrastructure will be developed by the government, while the superstructure will be built by the container terminal operator- Oman International Container Terminal. (Source: Hellenic Shipping News)  Kuwait’s trade surplus expanded to KWD 1.2bn in Q2-16 from KWD 0.4bn in Q1-16. The rise was attributed to oil exports which rose to KWD 3.2bn in Q2-16 from KWD 2.4bn in Q1-16 on the back of a recovery in oil prices. (Source: Kuwait Times) Reuters)  UK annual consumer price inflation rose to 1.0% in September-16 from 0.6% in August-16, as the collapse in the GBP since the UK referendum vote began to push up the cost of imports. Weaker GBP has sent the cost of petrol higher, along with other import items, such as clothing and footwear. (Source: The Guardian)  Average house prices in the UK increased by 8.4% in the year to August-16 up slightly from 8.0% in the year to July-16. The main contributor to rise in house prices came from England where prices rose by 9.2% over the year to August-16. (Source: Irish Times)  Euro zone banks will soon tighten access to corporate credit for the first time in two and a half years as they become more wary of risk and negative interest rates eat into their profit, a European Central Bank survey showed. (Source: Reuters)  China's economy grew 6.7% YoY in Q3-16, as increased government spending and a boom in property market offset weak exports. The release showed the continuing shift in China’s economy toward consumer spending, with retail sales gains outpacing the rise in industrial production. Furthermore, investment spending continues to be led by the public sector. (Source: Reuters) QATAR NEWS  Minister of Transport and Communications said that infrastructure development and renovation works worth around QAR 2bn would be taken up at Doha Port in Q2-17. The work will include extensive dredging in the area surrounding the port to ensure the smooth arrival of large vessels, particularly cruise ships. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ministry of Municipality and Environment announced plans to construct 15 pedestrian flyovers in Doha and its suburbs as part of its infrastructure development strategy. (Source: Gulf Times)  Al Faisal Holding plans to tap international debt markets for the first time to raise around USD 200mn through a USD denominated Islamic bond. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar First Bank, has launched the ‘Ijarah Aviation Structured Note’ to meet the increasing appetite of local and regional investors seeking innovative investment opportunities. The note provides predictable annual cash return of 9% on quarterly basis. The full amount of the equity underwritten by QFB has been sold to investors. (Source: QSE)  The Commercial Bank reported net profit of QAR 499mn in 9M-16 compared to QAR 1,301mn for the same period in 2015. The EPS amounted to QAR 1.04 in 9M-16 compared to QAR 3.71 for the same period in previous year. (Source: QSE)  Qatar Insurance reported net profit of QAR 710.8mn in 9M-16 compared to QAR 693.2mn for the same period in 2015. The EPS amounted to QAR 3.13 in 9M-16 compared to QAR 3.22 for the same period in previous year. (Source: QSE)  Ahli bank reported net profit of QAR 503.5mn in Q3-16 compared to QAR 505.7mn for the same period in 2015. The EPS amounted to QAR 2.64 in Q3-16 compared to QAR 2.65 for the same period in previous year. (Source: QSE)  Qatar Islamic bank reported net profit of QAR 1.6bn in 9M-16 compared to QAR 1.4bn for the same period in 2015. The EPS amounted to QAR 6.44 in Q3-16 compared to QAR 5.86 for the same period in previous year. (Source: QSE) GCC NEWS  S&P said that GCC sovereign’s four-year funding needs, ending in 2019, has been estimated at USD 560bn. In nominal terms, the regions’ combined fiscal deficit will reach USD 150bn in 2016 and to plug the deficit, the member countries will mostly rely on debt issuance, with Qatar is expected to be one of the most active one. (Source: The Peninsula)  According to BMI research, GCC nations will post an average budget deficit of 11% of GDP in 2016 and 8% in 2017, despite anticipated improvement in oil prices. The research firm anticipates an increase in OPEC oil basket price to USD 54 per barrel in 2017 from an average of USD 43.5 it anticipates in the current year. (Source: Reuters)  Abu Dhabi’s state-owned National Oil Co (ADNOC) said that it would consolidate the operations of three of its firms- Abu Dhabi National Tanker Co., Petroleum Services Co. and Abu Dhabi Petroleum Ports Operating Co. into one firm in order to increase efficiency. (Source: Reuters)  UAE-based Orient Insurance has entered into a reinsurance arrangement with HDFC International Life and Re, to cater to the needs of the expat segment. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Mawarid Technology, UAE’s homegrown technology platforms has inked a technical and commercial partnership agreement with Zwipe, a global leader in biometric authentication technology, which will see Zwipe’s full product portfolio of biometric authentication solutions being made available in the Middle East. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority (DSOA), the regulatory body for Dubai Silicon Oasis, signed a MoU with telecom provider Du to develop fifth generation mobile technology (5G) and Internet of Things (IoT) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 19 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1011 USD/QAR 3.6413 103.8700 EUR/QAR 4.0094 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2328 JPY/QAR 0.0351 USD/CHF 0.9899 GBP/QAR 4.4890 USD/CAD 1.3109 CHF/QAR 3.6785 AUD/USD 0.7666 CAD/QAR 2.7777 NZD/USD 0.7190 AUD/QAR 2.7914 USD/INR 66.2275 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 3.0954 TRY/QAR 1.1764 USD/ZAR 13.8952 ZAR/QAR 0.2621 USD/BRL 3.1877 BRL/QAR 1.1423 FX Commentary The US dollar started on a weak note on Tuesday as investors took some profits from the greenback's recent strength, however the currency pared losses to close 0.06% higher supported by a higher than anticipated rise in consumer prices. In the 12 months through September, the CPI rose 1.5%, the biggest year-on-year increase since October 2014. The CAD strengthened to a nearly three-week high against USD as risk appetite and oil rose and domestic manufacturing data reinforced expectations that broad economic growth rebounded in the third quarter. GBP was one of the best performers against the greenback after a government lawyer said parliament would "very likely" have to ratify any deal to take Britain out of the European Union. Strong inflation numbers on back of rising import costs due to weakness in GBP, further supported the currency. Source: Bloomberg SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.53 0.88 1.58 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) 1.01 1.10 1.34 1.62 2.04 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.10 2.39 2.65 EIBOR 0.40 0.53 0.74 1.27 1.85 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.02% 4.0% 2.00% 2.0% 2.38% 2.38% 1.37% 1.68% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.95% 2.48% 0.54% 0.0% 1.09% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.5 5.7 Turkey 257.1 21.4 UK 38.6 (3.7) Brazil 266.4 (71.9) Germany 18.8 (0.5) Egypt 481.7 (3.8) France 28.9 (7.0) Abu Dhabi 67.0 (16.9) 137.3 12.1 Bahrain 391.7 33.7 2.56% 2.0% 1.03% 1.0% 0.0% 2.03% 1.73% 1.41% 1.57% 1.40% 1.25% 1.93% Italy 0.74% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,028.6 (98.4) Dubai 146.2 (62.5) Russia 234.9 (22.9) Qatar 89.3 5.4 Japan 34.0 (7.8) Saudi Arabia 144.8 1.3 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 11:30 UK Jobless Claims Change Sep 3.2k Prior 2.4k 11:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Aug 4.90% 4.90% 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Oct-14th -- (6.00%) 15:30 US Housing Starts Sep 1175k 1142k 17:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision Oct-19th 0.50% 0.50% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 108.7 (6.1) (61.2) 383.6 18.1 2.3 170.7 2.5 1.8 (2.4) Qatar Insurance Co Al Ahli Bank Qatar Islamic Bank NA NA NA 549.7 6.7 Qatar Islamic Insurance 25.6 16.7 34.6 14.4 (31.6) 6.0 Doha Insurance Co 52.9 45.9 (14.3) 9.1 (495.8) (720.6) 173.7 18.2 (20.5) 61.6 3.5 (26.6) 2,316.1 (8.9) (9.0) 83.6 4.6 (36.9) NA NA NA 1,341.0 (2.1) 2.1 275.0 (6.0) 0.0 43.0 13.6 (3.8) Qatari Investors Group Saudi Arabian Mining Co Samba Financial Group Mobile Telecommunications Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 19 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 13th October, 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.7 0.0 8.0 1.8 5.5 5.0 2.9 0.0 4.1 6.2 1.9 5.6 3.4 5.9 6.1 4.5 5.2 5.2 0.0 9.0 4.2 5.1 5.4 6.3 2.9 4.7 4.1 3.6 2.4 7.1 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.2 3.1 7.5 2.6 6.5 3.0 2.0 7.7 4.2 3.1 1.9 2.8 2.2 5.3 5.7 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.4 1.1 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.4 1.6 3.1 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.4 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 3.2 2.6 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.7 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.8 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.5 (H) (ç) 10.1 12.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 44.8 11.6 12.4 10.7 28.9 11.2 20.9 7.9 24.5 11.9 10.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 14.3 6.2 11.5 15.0 18.2 16.2 18.2 14.9 22.5 11.2 11.0 16.1 20.1 11.7 19.7 4.3 11.8 12.8 16.2 25.6 13.3 15.0 21.1 12.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.2 16.4 13.3 10.1 12.1 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.5 0.4 6.0 4.1 10.4 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.8 1.0 1.9 6.6 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 7.7 2.9 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 77.2 9.9 38.8 34.9 52.6 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 42.7 12.2 21.0 53.8 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 50.2 23.9 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 39.6 39.1 23.1 37.4 59.8 18.1 35.3 17.2 10.7 104.0 64.6 154.9 10.7 85.4 82.5 200.5 28.6 147.5 10.5 11.1 64.0 78.3 15.1 35.0 107.0 17.0 210.3 51.5 42.4 85.0 22.0 20.5 87.4 44.0 53.2 33.7 16.7 13.7 19.6 98.0 10.8 55.7 23.8 87.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4