GCC Daily Market Update - 3 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 3 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,097.9 17,959.6 4,726.9 6,845.4 10,370.9 4,414.7 77,171.6 17,134.7 22,810.5 3,102.7 27,527.2 (13.8) (77.5) (40.0) (71.7) (155.2) (55.6) (257.0) (307.7) (336.6) (19.7) (349.4) (0.7) (0.4) (0.8) (1.0) (1.5) (1.2) (0.3) (1.8) (1.5) (0.6) (1.3) (1.3) (1.0) (1.5) (1.6) (2.8) (2.1) (1.7) (1.7) (0.5) 0.1 (1.4) 2.6 3.1 2.9 9.7 (3.5) (4.8) 7.6 (10.0) 4.1 (12.3) 5.4 10,073.0 5,989.6 4,264.5 3,291.5 5,407.7 5,470.9 1,145.1 1,496.7 2,862.7 (128.9) (7.4) (42.9) (30.9) (4.0) (6.8) (4.1) 0.9 (16.6) (1.3) (0.1) (1.0) (0.9) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) 0.1 (0.6) (1.0) (0.4) (0.8) (1.2) 0.1 (0.2) (0.3) 0.1 (0.9) (3.4) (13.3) (1.0) 4.5 (3.7) 1.2 (5.8) 2.8 2.3 46.9 45.3 2.8 1,308.2 223.1 (1.3) (1.3) (0.1) 20.2 0.2 (2.7) (2.9) (3.8) 1.6 0.1 (1.7) (2.2) (8.6) 2.2 0.8 27.4 23.8 18.4 22.7 4.1 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks continued their downward trajectory, weighed down by caution surrounding the outcome of upcoming US presidential elections and a drop in oil prices. US stocks extended losses after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but signaled it could hike in December. Shares of energy companies in the S&P 500 closed 1% lower, after data showed a much larger-than-expected rise in crude stockpiles. The prospect of higher interest rates hit yield-sensitive stocks, with utilities, real-estate and telecommunications sectors declining more than 1%. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.1%, with Autos leading the slide. Banks also closed lower, with Italian banks leading the drop after media reports that the government could delay the upcoming referendum on constitutional reform. Nikkei plunged 1.8% tracking the overnight drops in overseas equities and rise in JPY. GCC Most Gulf markets fell on Wednesday tracking the fall in global indices and oil prices. Saudi Arabia's index edged down 0.1% dragged down by petrochemical stocks (-0.5%). However banking stocks continued to outperform, rising 0.4%, as euphoria over the international bond issue continued to buoy the sector. Dubai's index fell 0.9%, while Abu Dhabi's index edged down 1% pulled back by a 1.6% slide in Etisalat. Kuwait's index edged down 0.1% but Kuwait Finance House, the country's biggest Islamic lender, rose 2.1% after reporting a 20.5% rise in Q3 net profit. Qatar QE Index underperformed the regional peers falling 1.3% dragged down by index heavyweight Industries Qatar which plunged 1.6%. Domestic institutions were the net sellers on the bourse. All the sector indices fell with major losers being Real Estate (-2.4%), Insurance (-2.2%), and Industrials (-1.8%). In terms of volume, Real Estate, Consumer Goods & Services, and Banking & Financial Services sectors accounted for 69% of the total traded. Out of 44 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 33 declined, 5 advanced and 2 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.7 1.5 4.1 59.8 DSM 20 14.6 1.5 4.0 34.9 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.2 1.4 3.9 969.8 UAE (ADX) 11.1 1.3 5.7 48.5 UAE (DFM) 12.0 1.2 4.2 46.3 Kuwait (KSE) 18.8 1.0 4.4 42.9 Oman (MSM) 10.3 1.1 5.3 3.5 Bahrain (BAX) 9.6 0.4 4.9 11.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Intl Islamic Al Khalij Comm Bank Qatar National Cement Qatar & Oman Investm Doha Insurance Co Top Losers Qatar General Ins & Re Medicare Group Qatari Investors Group Al Meera Cons Goods Islamic Holding Group Close Price 63.6 17.9 82.5 10.2 18.3 1.6 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 2.6 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 (1.1) (0.4) (11.0) (17.4) (12.9) (14.3) (16.6) (15.3) (26.8) (20.5) 18.1 17.7 14.2 12.3 0.3 12.1 11.0 10.7 28.0 9.2 44.9 55.6 55.2 167.5 55.0 (4.1) (4.6) (4.3) (11.2) (3.4) (8.4) (7.6) (7.2) (6.3) (5.8) (3.3) (53.4) 46.4 (23.9) (30.1) (11.0) (65.2) 21.9 (28.4) (36.5) 247.9 750.1 93.5 41.1 28.6 4.0 18.0 24.0 21.1 196.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 7/Aug 30.0 20.0 10,073.0 10.0 0.0 21/Aug 4/Sep 18/Sep Index Volume (mn) 2/Oct 16/Oct 30/Oct Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,858.5 5,651.9 3,022.7 4,482.6 2,243.6 1,161.1 2,421.7 1D Change (%) (0.3) (1.7) (1.8) (2.2) (2.4) (0.7) (1.8) Buy (%) 24.5 12.8 37.3 9.6 53.2 62.7 Sell (%) 24.3 36.0 60.3 8.6 31.1 39.7 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 3 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  The Federal Open Market Committee has kept federal fund rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.5% range. The central bank said in a statement that though the economy has gained steam and job growth remains solid, it still intends to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. (Source: Reuters)  US private sector employment rose less than expected to 147,000 jobs in October-16 compared to 202,000 jobs in September-16, according to ADP National employment report. (Source: Reuters)  Moody’s said that UK's Aa1 sovereign rating would be downgraded if the outcome of the negotiations with the EU was a loss of access to the single market as this would materially damage its medium-term growth prospects. (Source: Moody’s)  Germany unemployment rate fell by 0.1% MoM to 6.0% in October16. The seasonally adjusted jobless total fell by 13,000 to 2.7mn while number of job vacancies rose to a record high of 691,000 for the period. (Source: Reuters)  Economic growth will pick up in central, east and southeastern European countries (CESEE) next year on economic recoveries in Russia and neighboring countries, the IMF said. The Fund anticipates the emerging European region as a whole to grow by 2.1% in 2017 compared to 1.4% growth in 2016. (Source: Reuters)  S&P has affirmed India rating at 'BBB-/A-3' with a stable outlook as improvements in policymaking continue to strengthen the prospects for India's economic and fiscal performance. However, wide fiscal deficits, a heavy debt burden and low per capita income detract from the sovereign's credit profile. (Source: Reuters)  Turkish Prime Minister said that the heads of country's biggest banks have pledged to support the country's economic growth by lowering their interest rates to spur spending and bolster Turkey's flagging economy. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  The UAE is targeting an economic growth rate of about 4% next year as it looks to the non-oil economy for expansion, the undersecretary of the Ministry of Economy said. The nation’s economy grew by 3.8% in 2015 and growth is expected to fall to 2.3% this year as the effect of lower oil prices impacts the wider economy. (Source: The National)  The UAE government, in line with the country's Vision 2021 and economic diversification plan, has reduced dependence on oil to 30% of the GDP in just four decades. The contribution of oil would not exceed more than 20% of GDP by the year 2021, said Minister of Economy at the 3rd UAE Economic Planning Forum 2016. (Source: Khaleej Times)   Agthia Group’s 9M-16 profit reached AED 200mn, up 12% YoY whereas net revenues for that period increased 11% to AED 1.52bn, driven by strong performance of the Water business, with the Al Ain brand gaining its highest ever volume and value market share at 25.3% and 22.2%, respectively. (Source: Arabian Business) RAK Hospitality Holding is mulling a debt-raising exercise, which according to bankers, would be less than the AED 880mn (USD 240mn) debt transaction which the company concluded in May-15. (Source: Arabian Business)   Damac Properties has awarded China State Construction Engineering Corporation an AED 554mn (USD 148mn) contract to build the Paramount Residences at the Paramount Tower Hotel and Residences in Dubai. (Source: Arabian Business) Abu Dhabi based National Petroleum Construction Company has won a USD 141mn contract from India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (Source: Arabian Business)  The cost of borrowing money in the UAE has edged lower recently compared to a year ago, with the cheapest personal loan deal now costing just less than 5%. (Source: Gulf News)  The tourism sector will be able to provide 1,200,000 jobs in a move to fulfill the national vision, the head of the National Center for Human Resource at the Saudi Commission for Tourism and National Heritage said. The jobs will be in different sectors including transport, hotels, catering, and restaurants among different activities linked to the tourism sector. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  The Central Bank of Oman issued a treasury bill with a total value of OMR42mn for 91 days from November 2, till February 1, 2017. The average accepted price reached 99.788 for every OMR100 whereas the average discount rate and the average yield reached 0.85138% and 0.85319%, respectively. (Source: Times of Oman)  Warba Bank has received approval from the Central Bank of Kuwait to issue up to USD 250mn of sukuk which the bank would use to boost its Tier 1 capital. The bank will take a final decision on the issuance and its timing after obtaining remaining regulatory approvals. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain based Ibdar Bank has announced the closing of a USD 29.5mn joint venture deal to develop a prime purpose-built student accommodation project in Southampton, a city on the south coast of England. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain Telecommunications Co. (Batelco’s) net profit plunged 26.9% YoY to BHD 9.8mn (USD 26mn) in Q3-2016. It posted net profit of BHD 32.5mn during 9M-16, down from BHD 40.9mn in 9M-15. It added that overall subscriber numbers fell 6% YoY, mainly as a result of decreases in Batelco Bahrain and Sabafon mobile subscribers. (Source: Arabian Business)  GFH Real Estate (GFHRE), the real estate arm of the GFH Financial Group, has announced the appointment of AlMoayyed Contracting as the main contractor of its USD 150mn Harbour Row project in Bahrain Financial Harbour. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  The overall population living in the State of Qatar has increased by 58,123 to reach 2.61 mn last month, up from 2.55 mn in September-16. The statistics do not include Qataris who were living abroad during the population survey. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Central Bank sold all QAR 1.45bn (USD 398mn) of Treasury bills on offer at a monthly auction this week, with yields rising from the last sale, data released by the QCB showed. It sold QAR 650mn of 3-month bills at 1.51%, QAR 500mn of 6-month bills at 1.73%, and QAR 300mn of 9-month bills at 2%. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar received 2.18mn visitors during 9M-2016. Of the total 2.18 mn visitors, 1.09 mn were from the GCC countries. Saudi Arabia topped the list with visitors from that country reaching 746,598, an increase of 8% YoY. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Barwa Real Estate is raising USD 250mn through an Islamic syndicated loan led by Standard Chartered, banking sources said. The loan will carry a seven year maturity and a price in the range of 250-300 bps over the LIBOR. The loan will refinance existing debt, one banker said. (Source: Arabian Business)  A year since the launch of Qatar’s Wage Protection System (WPS), more than 1.8mn of the country’s 2.1mn salaried workforce now receive their payment via bank transfer, according to the Ministry of Administrative Development, Labour and Social Affairs. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airways has announced a code-share partnership with Air Botswana. This will provide Qatar Airways travelers with enhanced access to three key destinations in Botswana, Africa, the Doha-based carrier has said in a press statement. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 3 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1128 USD/QAR 3.6410 103.3000 EUR/QAR 4.0517 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2334 JPY/QAR 0.0352 USD/CHF 0.9732 GBP/QAR 4.4908 USD/CAD 1.3393 CHF/QAR 3.7413 AUD/USD 0.7661 CAD/QAR 2.7186 NZD/USD 0.7288 AUD/QAR 2.7894 USD/INR 66.2200 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 3.1135 TRY/QAR 1.1694 USD/ZAR 13.4647 ZAR/QAR 0.2704 USD/BRL 3.2317 BRL/QAR 1.1267 FX Commentary USD fell against most major currencies with dollar index down 0.3%, impacted by data showing a slowdown in US October private sector job growth. Prospects of Trump winning the presidential race, further weighed on the currency. The dollar pared some losses after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in its last policy decision before the US election, but signaled it could hike rates in December as the economy gathers momentum and inflation picks up. CAD weakened slightly against its US counterpart, tracking sharp drop in oil prices. GBP gained against the greenback as British construction activity improved in October. EUR started on a strong note on the back of strong factory growth and upbeat German employment data but pared gains due to recovery in USD. JPY closed higher, amidst a risk-off mode in the market. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.53 0.88 1.58 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) 1.32 1.38 1.49 1.71 2.10 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.05 2.30 2.62 EIBOR 0.46 0.51 0.76 1.31 1.92 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.19 1.50 2.13 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.05% 4.0% 2.01% 2.0% 2.40% 2.40% 1.40% 1.73% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.85% 2.55% 0.55% 0.0% 1.09% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 23.5 2.2 Turkey 265.0 15.6 UK 39.0 3.5 Brazil 287.3 (57.6) Germany 19.1 1.8 Egypt 475.6 (4.9) France 29.9 (11.0) Abu Dhabi 66.5 (29.4) Italy 150.1 27.0 Bahrain 359.8 (0.3) Greece 983.1 (148.0) Dubai 151.3 (65.7) Russia 238.8 (20.4) Qatar 89.5 (6.9) Japan 33.3 (4.5) Saudi Arabia 136.0 (22.0) 2.56% 1.84% 1.56% 2.0% 2.10% 1.05% 1.0% 0.0% 1.66% 1.47% 1.30% 2.03% 0.91% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 15:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Nov-3rd 0.25% 0.25% 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-29th 256k 258k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Oct-28th - 391.3b 17:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Oct 56 57.1 17:00 US Factory Orders Sep 0.20% 0.20% 17:00 US Durable Goods Orders Sep F (0.10%) (0.10%) 17:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Sep F 0.001 0.002 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 477.9 2.7 (14.5) 54.8 1.1 (29.6) Al-Themar Real International 0.4 (73.6) (114.9) (19.8) (2,207.0) 682.1 Kuwait Finance House NA NA NA 52.3 20.5 42.1 Gulf Insurance Group Ksc NA NA NA 3.4 (8.5) (10.5) 90.1 (4.0) (2.1) 9.8 (26.9) (25.3) Agthia Group Pjsc Bahrain Telecom Co Bahrain Flour Mills Co 1.5 16.6 (14.2) 0.1 106.9 (17.3) Bahrain Tourism Co 1.4 (8.4) (3.1) 0.6 33.0 797.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 3 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 8.4 0.0 8.2 1.9 5.7 5.1 3.2 0.0 4.2 6.4 1.8 5.8 3.4 6.5 8.1 4.8 5.4 5.3 0.0 9.0 4.2 5.2 5.7 7.0 3.3 4.9 4.4 3.6 2.2 7.0 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.0 2.2 2.8 7.8 2.6 6.9 3.2 2.2 7.5 4.4 3.1 2.0 2.9 2.3 5.5 5.3 5.1 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.4 1.0 2.3 1.0 2.1 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.8 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.1 0.7 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.4 3.0 2.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.7 0.7 2.3 1.7 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.8 18.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.8 12.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.3 12.0 11.0 28.6 11.5 7.1 20.0 23.0 13.5 11.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.8 13.6 5.8 11.4 13.6 33.8 18.5 19.8 14.5 25.2 10.3 10.7 17.3 18.0 10.0 19.9 4.4 12.7 12.5 12.7 24.0 14.7 12.9 18.6 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.1 15.6 12.9 12.0 12.8 13.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 40.1 35.7 22.2 36.4 57.1 17.5 34.6 15.5 9.9 102.4 63.0 160.0 10.4 77.5 61.9 186.5 28.1 144.5 10.0 11.1 64.3 77.6 13.6 30.6 102.0 16.1 210.0 58.0 42.8 82.5 21.0 19.9 87.6 49.0 51.5 32.0 15.7 12.6 19.9 97.0 10.5 53.4 22.6 94.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4