GCC Daily Market Update - 10 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 10 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,163.3 18,589.7 4,825.2 6,911.8 10,646.0 4,543.5 76,209.0 16,251.5 22,415.2 3,128.4 27,252.5 23.7 257.0 20.3 68.7 163.7 66.6 (158.8) (919.8) (494.3) (19.5) (338.6) 1.1 1.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.5 (0.2) (5.4) (2.2) (0.6) (1.2) 1.7 2.5 0.5 (0.6) (0.2) 0.8 (3.0) (6.7) (2.3) 0.9 (2.4) 5.8 6.7 5.0 10.7 (0.9) (2.0) 6.2 (14.6) 2.3 (11.6) 4.3 9,974.6 6,379.6 4,323.4 3,278.9 5,455.6 5,406.4 1,145.5 1,493.0 2,896.9 (10.7) 51.8 (24.5) (27.8) (14.0) (32.7) 1.3 12.3 5.8 (0.1) 0.8 (0.6) (0.8) (0.3) (0.6) 0.1 0.8 0.2 (1.9) 6.1 0.5 (1.6) 1.0 (1.4) (0.3) (0.2) 0.3 (4.4) (7.7) 0.4 4.1 (2.8) 0.0 (5.8) 2.9 3.9 46.4 45.3 2.7 1,273.5 246.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 (1.0) 8.0 0.7 0.6 2.2 (0.1) 3.3 (4.0) (3.6) (10.8) 0.0 14.1 24.4 21.9 15.4 20.1 17.9 Source: Bloomberg Global Global Markets ended on a mixed note on Wednesday. Asian markets reacted negatively after Trump won the US presidential elections, over fear of his protectionist policies. Japan’s Nikkei led the regional peers in the downfall, falling 5.4% as Yen surged during the Asian session. Shanghai composite fell marginally as data showing a recovery in producer prices offset the fears of Trump’s election win. European markets started on a weak note, tracking their Asian peers, however closed higher, supported by Healthcare stocks, which was hit by fears that Hillary Clinton would have favored measures to sharply limit drug-price increases. US indices gained as Trump’s presidency implied higher wages and higher inflation. The Dow Jones rose 1.4% led by a rally in Financial, Pharmaceutical and Engineering firms. GCC Most gulf markets fell on Wednesday in line with global bourses as investors reacted to the uncertainty in US policy following Donald Trump winning the presidential election. Saudi Arabia’s Index outperformed the regional indices rising 0.8% lifted by gains in Zain KSA which rose 5.9%. Dubai’s index which is more vulnerable to foreign fund flow lost 0.8% with Emaar properties falling 0.3%. Abu Dhabi’s Index fell 0.6% with Ad Shipbldg Co plunging 10%. Qatar QE index fell marginally, rebounding from initial plunge on reports of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections. Sell off was witnessed in Real Estate (-0.8%), Consumer Goods (0.7%) and Telecom sector (0.5%). Domestic Institutions and Retail investors were the net sellers on the bourse however heavy buying interest from foreign institutions capped losses. In terms of volume, industrials, banking and telecom stocks together constituted about 75% of the total traded. Out of 44 companies listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 21 declined, 18 advanced and 3 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.5 4.1 113.6 DSM 20 14.4 1.5 4.1 100.4 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.2 1.5 3.7 1,683.3 UAE (ADX) 11.1 1.4 5.7 84.2 UAE (DFM) 11.8 1.2 4.2 139.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.8 1.0 4.3 68.5 Oman (MSM) 10.2 1.0 5.3 5.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.4 4.9 0.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Natnl Cement Co Al Khalij Com. Bank Industries Qatar Widam Food Co Islamic Holding Group Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Gulf Int. Services Al Meera Cons. Goods Qatar Islamic Insurance Ezdan Holding Group Close Price 84.9 17.9 103.0 62.9 55.2 3.1 0.4 1.8 0.9 0.7 3.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 (8.4) (0.4) (7.3) 19.1 (29.9) (8.9) (10.7) (7.5) 25.8 (35.0) 6.5 21.0 208.1 3.5 62.2 11.0 11.0 18.7 13.3 197.1 20.2 29.9 170.2 48.9 15.5 (0.8) (0.9) (3.3) (0.9) (0.3) (3.8) (2.9) (1.9) (1.7) (1.6) (33.8) (41.9) (22.6) (32.2) (2.5) (37.8) (47.9) (24.9) (32.2) (12.4) 62.2 563.6 17.3 0.3 342.9 17.4 33.1 21.5 12.0 23.5 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 14/Aug 30.0 20.0 9,974.6 10.0 0.0 28/Aug 11/Sep 25/Sep Index Volume (mn) 9/Oct 23/Oct 6/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,806.1 5,689.2 3,043.4 4,438.1 2,227.5 1,127.9 2,398.9 1D Change (%) 0.0 (0.7) 0.8 (0.3) (0.8) (0.5) 0.1 Buy (%) 23.4 8.7 32.1 8.1 59.8 67.9 Sell (%) 24.8 53.1 77.9 8.5 13.6 22.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 10 , 2016 partner DroobTech to implement a process piping corrosion loop at MPC’s Ras Al-Khair site. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  S&P affirmed US investment-grade 'AA+/A-1+' rating after the Republican candidate- Donald Trump won the Presidential election, while maintaining its stable outlook. The agency said that institutional strengths of US will support policy execution in a Trump administration. (Source: Reuters)  US wholesale inventories rose 0.1% MoM in September-16, slightly less compared to estimated rise 0.2% MoM. Inventory investment added 0.6% point to economic growth in Q3-16 after having dragged heavily on growth in Q2-16. (Source: Reuters)  Federal Reserve policymaker- Neel Kashkari said he sees continued sluggish growth ahead for the US economy, unless lawmakers and the president overhaul the policy framework to boost productivity. (Source:  Saudi Oger has asked banks freeze the repayments it owes the banks on at least SAR 13.0bn (USD 3.5bn) of debt, as it seeks more time to collect money owed by the Saudi government. (Source: Zawya)  Oman Tourism Development Company is set to start work on the first phase of its Mina Al Sultan Qaboos Waterfront project worth OMR 500.0mn (USD 1.3bn), which will feature residences, businesses, retail units and luxury hotels besides other entertainment and lifestyle attractions over a 1mn m2 area. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman's Oil Refineries and Petroleum Industries Company (Orpic) revealed that its Liwa Plastics Industries Complex project worth USD 6.5bn will create an estimated 12,000 indirect jobs in and around North Al Batinah Governorate. The company further added that the project will double Orpic’s profits with a positive cash flows of around USD 100mn per month when the project comes on stream in early 2020. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) announced that the issue of the 7.5 years of government development bonds has been subscribed by 100%. The expected interest rate on the issue, which matures on 10th May-24 is 5.875%. (Source: BNA)  Central Bank of Bahrain announced that Bahrain government’s treasury bills worth BHD 70.0 mn and maturity of 91 days has been subscribed 100%. The weighted average rate of interest for the issue is 2.03% compared to 2.01% for the previous issue on 2nd November 2016. (Source: BNA)  Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco) and Tatweer Petroleum Company have signed a co-operation agreement with Eni of Italy to study and assess potentials of some exploration & production assets in Bahrain. The study aims at the possibility of future initiatives in the country, with the view to cooperate for further developments of the country's energy resources. (Source: BNA) Reuters)   The European Commission has trimmed its economic forecasts for Euro zone to 1.7% in 2016 from 2.0% in 2015, as it is of the opinion that increased political uncertainty, including Britain's Brexit vote and weakening global trade will weaken its prospects. It expects growth decelerate further to 1.5% in 2017. (Source: Reuters) The World Bank said that the Russian economy has improved, as it sees the country’s GDP to grow by 1.5% YoY in 2017 and 1.7% YoY in 2018. The bank cited the recovery in projection for oil prices to an average of USD 55 per barrel in 2017 as the reason for the improved forecast. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index came in at 53.2 points in October-16 compared to 55.1 points in September-16, indicating slower expansion. The expansion was due to improvement in business conditions across Dubai’s private sector, underpinned by strong rises in output and incoming new work. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE based Eshraq Properties announced that it is investing AED 750.0mn in three major projects- Jumeirah Village Circle (Dubai) and Marina Rise Project and The Gateway (Abu Dhabi) expanding its property portfolio in the UAE. The projects set to complete by 2021. QATAR NEWS  The Ministry of Economy and Commerce announced that it has identified 83 commercial and investment opportunities for the private sector across seven sectors of the sport industry until the year 2023. Some of the sectors include event management, venue construction, sporting goods and venue operation. (Source: Gulf Times)  Fiscal pressures on Qatar are expected to ease from 2017, as modest gains in hydrocarbon prices result in a recovery in revenues and as the government’s diversification efforts start to pay off, according to a report by BMI Research. The report further stated that the government will maintain its efforts to increase its revenue base and to rationalize spending. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar's regulated investment company, Amwal and Bahrain-based Takaud have joined hands to provide long-term savings and pension products for the first time in Qatar’s corporate sector. This launch intends to address the expatriate populations’ concerns on the endof-service benefits. (Source: Gulf Times)  The demand for electric equipment and cutting-edge technologies in Qatar is expected to continue registering double-digit growth over the next few years due to the massive spending on country’s infrastructure development, including on modernizing the country’s power sector and smart-grid system. (Source: The Peninsula)  Combined value of Qatar’s weekly real estate transactions witnessed a decline during the week ended 3rd November-16 despite a doubledigit increase in the number of transactions implemented in different municipalities during the week. The total number of deals implemented during the week rose 9.6% to 92 compared to 71 deals in previous week. (Source: The Peninsula) (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE’s Danube Properties announced the launch of its new projectMiraclz worth AED 400.0mn (USD 109.0mn) located at Arjaan neighborhood in Dubai. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Acwa Power is set to launch a new company- Acwa Power RenewCo that will group its existing renewable energy portfolio and act as a platform to capitalize on the rapidly growing market potential for renewable energy in emerging markets. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority's (Dewa) 200MW Photovoltaic Plant Project Activity has achieved the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) registration under UNFCCC with an initial crediting period of seven years, as companies earn carbon credits to finance clean energy generation projects. (Source: Trade Arabia)    Fujairah Government Human Resources Department has signed a strategic partnership with UAE Exchange. Under the partnership terms, UAE Exchange will offer special benefits with regards to the financial services and solutions provided to employees working in government entities in the Emirate of Fujairah. (Source: Trade Arabia) UAE based Dana Gas will review its 2017 investment plans for Egypt if the North African country doesn't repay the full amount (USD 221.0mn as of 31st September-16) it owes by the end of the 2016. (Source: Zawya) Ma’aden Phosphate Company (MPC), a JV between Ma’aden and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation awarded a contract to UK-based Plant Integrity Management in conjunction with its Saudi Arabian 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 10 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0940 USD/QAR 3.6410 105.6700 EUR/QAR 3.9833 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2436 JPY/QAR 0.0345 USD/CHF 0.9845 GBP/QAR 4.5279 USD/CAD 1.3424 CHF/QAR 3.6983 AUD/USD 0.7635 CAD/QAR 2.7123 NZD/USD 0.7279 AUD/QAR 2.7799 USD/INR 65.9350 INR/QAR 0.0552 USD/TRY 3.2102 TRY/QAR 1.1342 USD/ZAR 13.4457 ZAR/QAR 0.2708 USD/BRL 3.2254 BRL/QAR 1.1289 FX Commentary The dollar index gained 0.7%, against a basket of major currencies, as Fed fund futures continued to show that investors still overwhelmingly expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December policy meeting, despite Trump winning the elections. Trump’s expected protectionist policies which will boost wages, thereby increasing inflation, further supporting the yields, thereby aiding the greenback. CAD reacted negatively to Trump’s win, however trimmed losses after hitting an eightmonth low against its US counterpart on back of recovery in oil prices. A drop in yields and a rise in equities, created a risk on mode in markets, causing JPY and CHF to retreat against the USD. The EUR touched it’s lowest against the greenback since Oct. 28, majorly due to the strength in the latter. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.54 0.88 1.57 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) 1.22 1.33 1.48 1.74 2.14 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 1.98 2.21 2.55 EIBOR 0.36 0.52 0.74 1.37 1.93 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.19 1.50 2.06 Source: Bloomberg 2.24% 1.96% 1.67% 2.70% 2.25% 1.12% 1.87% 1.67% 1.48% 0.0% 2.39% 2.39% 1.58% 1.94% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 2.79% 0.73% 1.22% 0.60% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs 0.97% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 29.0 8.0 Turkey 270.1 2.5 UK 38.5 3.0 Brazil 274.3 (63.0) Germany 20.5 1.9 Egypt 459.9 (20.6) 65.9 (31.1) France 0.0% 2 Yrs 1.99% 2.0% 5 Years CDS 3.0% 1.0% 4.13% 4.0% Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 30.0 (8.7) Abu Dhabi Italy 148.1 21.4 Bahrain 369.2 9.2 Greece 931.2 (178.8) Dubai 148.5 (63.5) Russia 221.7 (39.6) Qatar 87.2 (18.8) Japan 33.0 (5.0) Saudi Arabia 130.5 (23.4) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 10:45 France Industrial Production MoM Period Survey Prior Sep (0.30%) 2.10% 12:00 Italy Industrial Production MoM 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Sep (1.00%) 1.70% Nov-04th -- 391.0b 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Nov-05th 260k 265k 02:50 Japan PPI YoY Oct (2.60%) (3.20%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) National Investments Company NA NA NA (0.7) (41.9) (212.2) Salhia Real Estate Co KSCP NA NA NA 2.4 21.3 (8.4) Kuwait Cement Co KSC NA NA NA 3.0 19.5 (56.3) Ahli United Bank BSC 397.6 6.4 (3.4) 140.9 0.0 (3.9) Union Properties PJSC 206.9 18.1 21.0 32.3 (70.8) (55.0) 4,195.0 (13.1) 4.0 (524.0) 26.0 (10.9) Abu Dhabi National Energy Co Dana Gas 227.0 3.2 1.8 47.0 (267.9) 80.8 Ithmaar Bank BSC NA NA NA 2.1 (159.2) (34.1) Tamdeen Investment Co NA NA NA 0.2 31.5 (68.7) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 10 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 8.7 0.0 8.4 1.9 5.5 5.2 3.4 0.0 4.2 6.5 1.9 5.9 3.4 6.5 7.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.2 4.3 5.3 5.8 7.3 3.3 5.0 4.5 3.6 2.2 7.1 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.5 2.2 3.0 8.0 2.7 7.0 3.2 2.2 7.8 4.4 3.3 2.0 3.0 2.3 5.5 5.8 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.5 0.8 2.4 1.0 2.2 1.1 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.6 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.0 0.7 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.4 3.0 2.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.6 2.3 1.7 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.4 18.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 11.2 12.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.2 11.7 10.7 27.8 11.2 7.1 20.5 21.4 13.5 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 13.3 5.7 11.2 13.0 34.0 18.0 19.0 14.5 25.0 10.3 10.7 17.0 18.0 9.2 19.5 4.0 12.3 12.0 12.5 24.1 14.5 12.5 18.5 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.1 15.5 12.9 11.0 12.3 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 38.6 34.6 22.0 35.7 55.0 18.2 34.0 14.7 9.6 101.5 61.6 155.5 10.1 77.5 63.3 172.9 28.1 142.0 10.2 10.9 62.9 76.2 13.0 30.8 99.3 15.5 210.5 57.5 42.5 83.1 21.0 18.1 85.6 45.0 50.0 31.4 15.8 12.4 19.3 91.5 10.4 53.1 22.6 86.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4