GCC Daily Market Update - 9 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 9 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) Global Global stocks ended on a mixed note on Friday. US markets closed in green after the smallest jobs gain in seven months fueled speculation that Fed will look to raise interest rates gradually. The Labor Department report showed that American employers added 160,000 workers in April, against 200,000 jobs estimated. European markets started on a pessimistic note, tracking its Asian peers, however pared most of its losses by close, on allayed fears of interest rate hike by Fed. In Asia, China’s benchmark plunged 2.8% on accentuated debt concerns after Inner Mongolia Nailun Group announced it was unable to meet its debt payments. Speculations that China’s securities regulator could suspend the process of Chinese firms that wanted to de-list their shares in the US and re-list them in either Shanghai or Shenzhen, also lent to the broad based pessimism. GCC Gulf markets closed majorly in green, supported by modest recovery on Wall Street and Oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s index closed 0.2% higher following a sweeping reorganization in Saudi government, which saw the oil minister and Central Bank governor replaced. State utility Saudi Electric climbed 1.8% after the reshuffle moved the electricity portfolio to the new superministry, which could give a fresh impetus to a restructuring of the company. Dubai’s index closed 0.6% higher. The bourses most heavily traded stock, Dubai Parks & Resorts gained 2.3%. Abu Dhabi’s index ended 0.5% in green buoyed by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, gained 1.3%. Qatar QE index closed its 5th straight session in red ending 0.2% lower mainly on selling pressure from foreign and Gulf institutions. Profit booking was majorly witnessed in Insurance, Transport, Real Estate counters. In terms of volume Banking and Industrials constituted about 59% of the total traded. Out of 42 companies traded, 18 gained, 18 declined and 6 remained unchanged. 2,057.1 17,740.6 4,330.2 6,125.7 9,870.0 4,301.2 78,368.1 16,106.7 20,109.9 2,913.2 25,228.5 6.5 79.9 20.7 8.5 18.1 (18.2) (330.8) (40.7) (340.0) (84.6) (33.7) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) (1.7) (2.8) (0.1) (0.4) (0.2) (0.3) (1.9) (1.7) (2.9) (8.2) (3.4) (4.5) (0.9) (1.5) 0.6 1.8 (5.7) (1.9) (8.1) (7.2) 9.3 (15.4) (8.2) (17.7) (3.4) 9,730.1 6,672.5 4,449.3 3,325.8 5,370.7 5,995.6 1,111.7 1,465.3 2,794.9 (18.7) 16.1 20.7 18.2 (2.5) 15.9 (1.1) 0.1 0.0 (0.2) 0.2 0.5 0.6 (0.1) 0.3 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 (4.5) (2.0) (2.1) (4.8) (0.4) 0.9 0.1 (3.5) (1.5) (6.7) (3.5) 3.3 5.5 (4.4) 10.9 (8.6) 1.3 (0.2) 45.4 44.7 2.1 1,294.0 215.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 21.7 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.7 0.0 (4.8) (1.4) (3.7) 0.3 (6.7) 22.9 22.3 (10.2) 22.1 (0.4) P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar All share 12.9 1.5 4.2 28.4 10,400 DSM 20 13.2 1.5 4.2 16.4 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.4 1.6 3.7 1,596.8 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.5 5.5 21.3 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.2 1.2 4.3 57.3 Kuwait (KSE) 17.4 1.0 4.8 22.2 8,400 10/Feb Oman (MSM) 11.5 1.4 4.3 8.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.2 0.6 4.9 0.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Dlala Holding Medicare Group Al Khaleej Takaful Doha Bank Qsc Mazaya Qatar Real Est Top Losers Qatar General Insur Al Ahli Bank Doha Insurance Co Vodafone Qatar Qatar German Co Close Price 22.1 88.5 25.9 36.4 14.0 0.6 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 2.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 19.7 (25.8) (15.1) (18.2) 3.4 (21.1) (49.5) (41.6) (33.6) (22.8) 562.4 NA 26.2 17.2 0.5 22.0 4.8 7.9 276.5 13.8 45.0 42.3 19.0 11.2 11.7 (3.5) (2.1) (0.7) (0.2) (0.2) (7.2) (4.7) (3.6) (1.8) (1.8) (3.1) (3.6) (9.5) (11.7) (14.9) (15.4) (5.5) (24.0) (35.7) (34.5) 2.7 NA 0.0 12.6 0.3 8.8 313.3 NA 44.2 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,900 20.0 9,730.1 10.0 0.0 24/Feb 9/Mar 23/Mar Index Volume (mn) 6/Apr 20/Apr 4/May Index Value Closing Level 2,641.1 6,422.0 3,033.4 4,056.9 2,395.6 1,091.7 2,443.0 1D Change (%) (0.2) 0.1 0.1 (2.1) (0.4) (0.2) (0.7) Buy (%) 50.2 16.2 66.4 18.8 14.8 33.6 Sell (%) 51.9 12.7 64.6 16.8 18.7 35.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 9 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  US employment climbed by much less than expected in April-16. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 160,000 jobs in April-16 compared to a forecasted increase of about 200,000 jobs. (Source: Reuters)  US unemployment benefits rose by more than expected in the week ended 30th April-16. The initial jobless claims climbed to 274,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's level of 257,000. (Source:  Saudi King Salman named Khaled al-Falih, chairman of the state oil company Aramco, to be the Minister of the new Energy, Industry and Natural Resources Ministry. Majed al-Qusaibi was named head of the new Commerce and Investment Ministry, and Ahmed al-Kholifey was made governor of SAMA. (Source: Arabian Business)  New Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority Governor Ahmed al-Kholifey said that his main priority is to maintain monetary stability and support the government's Vision 2030 economic reforms. (Source: Arabian Business) RTT)  Borrowing by US consumers ballooned in March-16 at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Outstanding consumer credit rose by a seasonally adjusted 10.0% MoM or USD 29.67 bn in March-16 after climbing by a revised USD 14.10bn in February-16, according to the Fed. (Source: NASDAQ)  Saudi Arabia's move to raise USD 10bn reflects the pressure on its fiscal balances caused by lower oil prices, Fitch said. According to the agency, over the longer term, international sovereign debt issuance may support the development of a market for Saudi corporate bonds. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi-based Sidra Capital has announced its first foray in the US real estate market with acquisition of an office building in Fort Mill, South Carolina in a deal worth SAR 350mn (USD 93.3mn). (Source: Arabian  UK service sector activity expanded at the slowest pace in more than three years in April-16. Markit services PMI fell more-than-expected to 52.3 in April-16 from 53.7 in March-16. (Source: RTT)  UK new car registrations grew modestly by 2% YoY to 189,505 cars in April-16. Market growth continued to be driven by the fleet and business sectors, where respective increases of 6.1% and 2.8% offset a 2.5% fall in private registrations. (Source: RTT)  Bahrain is set to launch a major 400 kV electricity transmission line project worth BHD 180mn (USD 474mn) aimed at reducing short circuits and ensuring transfer of electricity from the production plants to load centers across the kingdom. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Germany's construction activity grew at the slowest pace in five months during April-16. The seasonally adjusted PMI fell further from February-16's recent high to 53.4 in April-16. In March-16, the reading was 55.8. (Source: Financial Times)  Bahrain Telecommunications Co (Batelco) posted a fall of 33% in net profit to BHD 9.6mn (USD 25.5mn) in Q1-16 as compared to net profit of BHD 14.2mn a year earlier. It was forecasted that the firm would make a quarterly profit of BHD 8.4mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Japan’s service sector output declined slightly in April-16. The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index fell to 49.3 in April-16 from 50.0 in March-16. The composite index, which combines scores from the manufacturing and services indexes, dropped to 48.9 in April-16 from 49.9 in March-16. (Source: RTT)  Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar may see a sustained 3.6% average growth during 2016-18 mainly powered by non-hydrocarbon sectors, even as it faces key medium term risks in the form of persisting lower global oil and gas prices as well as intensifying competition in the gas market, according to Mena Economic Monitor Report. (Source: Zawya)  Rising consumer confidence and spending, alongside greater governmental investment will create opportunities in Qatar's retail and office sub-sectors in 2016 and 2017, according to the BMI, the Fitch Group company. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar’s Quality group International declared their entry into the offshore technical field. Import of the non-sparking safety tools, Offshore Maintenance, Heavy Hydraulics and Fabrication works will be the areas of the Quality Group in the offshore field, said the Chairman of the company. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar’s Dragon Mart, involved in building materials, decorations and fixtures, to contemplate opening a 13,000sqm showroom in future, said the logistics manager of the company. (Source: Zawya)  QIIB has announced that Moody’s has affirmed the Bank’s rating at ‘A2’ with a ‘stable’ outlook. Moody’s affirmation of QIIB’s rating came shortly after Fitch’s affirmation of the Bank’s rating. (Source: QSE)  Qatar Rail has fired a consortium of companies tasked with building the Doha Metro’s flagship stations and replaced the firms with a new contractor. It has appointed Consolidated Contractors SAL to take over the project, Qatar Rail said. (Source: Doha News)  Saudi Aramco has extended the bidding deadline for a clean fuels project at its biggest oil refinery in Ras Tanura. The potential USD 2bn scheme to remove sulphur from refined products is part of a drive to meet stricter environmental standards. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar Airways has reduces the frequency of flights due to aircraft shortage. The affected destinations include three US cities and a new service to Adelaide in Australia. (Source: Doha News)  By the middle of 2017, Saudi Arabia will implement its planned reforms to stimulate the stock market and open it to foreign investment, as stated by the Capital Market Authority. (Source: Arabian Maersk, a Danish energy firm, has developed Qatar’s largest oilproducing fields for nearly 25 years has announced that its agreement with Qatar Petroleum expires next year and the project may be coming to an end. (Source: Doha News)  Al Meera Consumer Goods Company has decided to terminate the process of negotiation with Spinneys ‘owners. (Source: QSE) Japan’s monetary base increased by 2.8% MoM to stand at JPY 386.19tn at the end of April-16. The current account deposit balance rose 3.3% MoM to JPY 284.41tn. (Source: Japan Times) GCC NEWS   GCC countries are expected to post a total fiscal deficit of USD 318bn between 2015 and 2016 and the Governments in the Gulf are expected to raise between USD 255bn to USD 390bn by 2020 by selling both international and local debt, to cover deficit. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai-based Majid Al Futtaim has announced that it will boost total investment in Oman to OMR 705mn (USD 1.8bn) by 2020. The company, Oman’s largest non-energy GCC investor, stated that it will increase its investment in Oman by OMR 515mn by 2020, in addition to the OMR 190mn invested since 2001. (Source: Arabian Business)  Green Energy Tomorrow, the regionally-focused rooftop solar specialist launched by Phanes Group, has signed an agreement with DP World to deliver the first phase of the largest rooftop solar project in the Middle East. (Source: Arabian Business)  Al Marjan Island Company agreed on a partnership with Mövenpick Hotels & Resorts to launch its first resort in Ras Al Khaimah. Construction of the project on Breeze Island will start next year and the resort is expected to be completed and start operations by 2020, said the CEO of Mövenpick. (Source: Arabian Business)   Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 9 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1434 USD/QAR 3.6406 107.1200 EUR/QAR 4.1627 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4457 JPY/QAR 0.0340 USD/CHF 0.9725 GBP/QAR 5.2632 USD/CAD 1.2909 CHF/QAR 3.7435 AUD/USD 0.7366 CAD/QAR 2.8202 NZD/USD 0.6831 AUD/QAR 2.6817 USD/INR 66.0550 INR/QAR 0.0551 USD/TRY 2.9276 TRY/QAR 1.2435 USD/ZAR 14.8839 ZAR/QAR 0.2446 USD/BRL 3.5019 BRL/QAR 1.0396 FX Commentary The Sterling hit 11-day low against the US dollar on Friday last week on worries over the possible exit of Britain from the European Union. For the week, the GBP was over 1% down against the USD. The GBP was also hurt by the weak purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys that indicated Britain's economy slowed in April-16. The GBP weakened against the EUR too. The CAD weakened to a two-week low against the greenback on Friday as Canada's labor market slowed, while the country’s economic outlook was hurt by an intense wildfire in Alberta. Canada lost about 2,100 jobs in April-16. Economists had forecast that the employment number would remain unchanged after a strong increase in March-16. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.63 1.22 (0.39) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.12 1.21 1.31 1.44 1.78 SAIBOR NA NA 1.76 2.06 2.27 EIBOR 0.28 0.36 0.63 1.05 1.65 BMIBOR 0.45 0.65 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.24% 5.0% 2.14% 2.46% 2.46% 1.11% 5 Yrs 1.43% 1.74% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.95% 2.62% 0.57% 0.0% 2 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 21.7 1.2 Turkey 267.4 14.2 UK 36.5 20.0 Brazil 339.4 (67.8) Germany 18.1 5.1 Egypt 480.5 100.1 France 38.8 10.3 Abu Dhabi 97.8 24.8 131.5 32.7 Bahrain 360.0 33.0 1.0% 1.95% 1.64% 2.0% 2.22% 2.14% 0.87% 0.84% 2.67% 1.63% 1.39% 1.19% Italy Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 1,165.2 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 88.3 Dubai 220.2 20.3 Russia 260.3 (22.9) Qatar 103.8 30.8 Japan 40.0 (4.0) Saudi Arabia 159.8 10.7 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 3:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Mar 1.40% 0.70% 3:00 Japan Real Cash Earnings YoY Mar 1.40% 0.30% 8:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Apr 40.7 41.7 9:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM Mar 0.60% (1.20%) 9:00 Germany Factory Orders WDA YoY Mar 0.10% 0.50% 10:30 UK Halifax House Prices MoM Apr (0.30%) 2.60% 10:30 UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year Apr 9.60% 10.10% 11:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence 15:15 Canada Housing Starts 17:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 17:00 US 2:01 UK May 6 5.7 Apr 193.0k 204.6k May-06th -- 56.9 Labor Market Conditions Index Change Apr (1.0) (2.1) BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY Apr 0.50% (0.70%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Galfar Engineering&Contract 84.10 (6.34) (7.12) 0.10 (92.41) (100.38) Oman Investment & Finance NA NA NA 1.36 (11.29) (31.56) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 9 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 8.1 0.0 8.2 1.7 6.0 5.3 2.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.3 6.4 2.1 5.3 3.6 6.0 4.2 4.0 4.9 0.0 9.1 4.6 4.7 5.0 7.4 3.1 5.0 5.6 3.7 3.7 2.5 7.7 3.8 4.5 3.9 5.0 2.9 2.8 6.7 3.2 6.8 2.9 2.0 8.1 4.1 3.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.5 2.0 5.4 5.7 5.1 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.9 0.9 2.3 1.1 2.6 1.1 2.2 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.4 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.3 2.7 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 2.8 0.7 3.0 1.6 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 2.6 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 13.2 9.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.5 11.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.5 11.9 10.2 27.0 10.7 16.3 25.3 17.7 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.9 13.7 7.0 12.8 13.0 11.6 14.4 8.2 20.1 14.9 23.9 10.0 11.2 14.7 19.9 9.3 14.7 4.7 12.7 10.3 27.8 26.8 13.4 9.6 22.5 11.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 15.4 18.4 12.8 9.2 11.5 12.9 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 5.3 10.3 4.7 5.7 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 27.8 70.7 20.0 36.0 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 44.4 37.0 21.3 36.8 64.0 16.8 33.0 18.0 14.0 99.7 62.3 138.4 11.4 84.0 212.9 38.0 156.0 11.9 11.0 59.0 85.0 12.9 32.8 100.0 89.0 19.0 203.0 50.7 39.0 86.8 25.7 20.0 77.5 48.5 59.8 32.3 17.4 13.7 18.6 89.0 11.7 60.0 23.0 87.1 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4