GCC Daily Market Update - 15 May

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP May 15 , 2016 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Region Event US Initial Jobless Claims Russia CPI YoY Period Survey Actual Prior Apr-30th 260k 274k 257k Apr 7.40% 7.30% 7.30% Apr-29th Russia Gold and Forex Reserve -- 390.1b 388.6b US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 200k 160k 208k France Industrial Production MoM Mar 0.70% (0.30%) (1.30%) Japan BoP Current A/c Balance Mar ¥2965.6b ¥2980.4b ¥2434.9b France CPI YoY Apr F (0.20%) (0.20%) (0.20%) UK Bank of England Bank Rate May-12th 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% US Initial Jobless Claims May-07th 270k 294k 274k Russia Gold and Forex Reserve May-06th -- 391.9b 390.1b Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Apr F (0.30%) (0.40%) (0.30%) US U. of Mich. Sentiment May P 89.5 95.8 89.0 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS  US wholesale inventories inched up by 0.1% MoM in Mar-16 after falling by 0.6% MoM in Feb-16. Sales rose 0.7% MoM, the biggest monthly increase since Apr-15. (Source: CNBC)  Eurozone investor sentiment index rose to 6.2 in May-16 from 5.7 in Apr-16. The reading was forecasted to rise to 6. (Source: RTT)  UK growth outlook was downgraded to grow 2% in 2016 instead of 2.3%, as activity was weighed down by uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the EU referendum. (Source: RTT)  German industrial production decreased 1.3% MoM in Mar-16, as both manufacturing and construction output fell from the previous month. (Source: Bloomberg)  French industrial production declined 0.3% MoM in Mar-16 on weaker output in manufacturing, transport and food. (Source: Bloomberg)  The Australian consumer sentiment index surged by 8.5% MoM to 103.2 in May-16, indicating confidence levels at the highest level seen since Jan-2014. (Source: Business Insider)  Japan's leading index that reflects the future economic activity, fell to 98.4 in Mar-16 from 98.9 in Feb-16. (Source: London South East) Japan's current account surplus expanded 6.9% YoY to JPY 2.98tn in Mar-16, as the nation's import bill fell due to lower global fuel prices. Trade surplus climbed 39% YoY to JPY 927.20bn. (Source: Market Watch) Turkey’s current account deficit stood at USD 3.6bn in Mar-16, bringing the 12-month rolling deficit to around USD 29.5bn. (Source:   UST 10yr Bond 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 Feb-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Apr-16 May-16 Source: Bloomberg up from 52.5 in Mar-16. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s GDP growth slowed to 2.8% YoY in Q4-15 from 4.2% in Q315. For 2015, real GDP growth averaged 4.1%, in line with the forecast and up from 3.5% in 2014. (Source: CPI Financial)  Omani commercial bank’s private deposits grew 4.6% to OMR 11.9bn at the end of Feb-16, compared with OMR 11.4bn in Feb-15. (Source: Zawya)    GCC countries are expected to post a total fiscal deficit of USD 318bn between 2015 and 2016 and the Governments in the Gulf are expected to raise between USD 255bn to USD 390bn by 2020 by selling both international and local debt, to cover deficit, according to the GCC Sovereign Debt 2016 Report. (Source: Arabian Business) UAE average Inflation is set to decline to 3.2% in 2016 from 4.1% in 2015, while GDP growth is likely to accelerate over the medium term due to expected recovery in crude prices, according to IMF. (Source: Abu Dhabi announced that it has successfully issued its benchmark dual-tranche 5 and 10 years USD 5bn bonds. Notes due for 2021 for the value of USD 2.5bn and notes due for 2026 for the value of USD 2.5bn. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai private sector companies recorded the fastest improvement in overall business conditions in Apr-16. The seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index reached 52.7 in Apr-16, Bahrain-Egypt bilateral trade grew by more than 6% to USD 340mn in 2016 compared with USD 320mn a year ago. (Source: Gulf Daily News) QATAR NEWS  Qatar's M2 money supply shrank by 0.4% YoY in Mar-16, as low oil and gas prices pressured liquidity in the banking system. Total bank credit growth slowed to 13.9% YoY in Mar-16. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar’s Consumer Price Index increased 3.4% YoY and 0.1% MoM in Apr-16. CPI for Apr-16 is estimated at 107.7. (Source: Gulf Times)  Loans to Qatar's public sector grew by 11% YoY in Mar-16. Lending to the private and foreign sectors grew by 15.7% and 22.7%, respectively in Mar-16. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar may see a sustained 3.6% average growth during 2016-18 mainly powered by non-hydrocarbon sectors, acccording to MENA Economic Monitor Report - Spring 2016. (Source: Zawya)  The bilateral trade volume between Qatar and Belgium has hit nearly QAR 5.4bn in 2015. (Source: The Peninsula)  Trade volume between Qatar and Italy reached EUR 2.3bn in 2015. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s power sector would require USD 9bn for adding 5.2 GW to meet rising demand in the medium term, USD 6bn in generation and USD 3bn in transmission and distribution during 2016-20. (Source: Gulf Times)  Moody’s affirmed QIIB’s rating at ‘A2’ with a ‘stable’ outlook. This affirmation came shortly after Fitch’s affirmation of the Bank’s rating. (Source: QSE) Emirates247)  Oman's economic growth is projected to slow further this year despite authorities cutting spending on wages and benefits, subsidies, defense and capital investment, according to IMF. (Source: Arabian Business)  Daily News) GCC NEWS 1.67  Qatar's Ahli Bank has plans to raise a USD 250mn three-year loan. The loan will be partially used to refinance an existing USD 200mn facility, due to mature in 2017. (Source: Zawya)  Doha Bank received its shareholders’ approval to raise up to USD 5bn through Certificate of Deposits (CDs) and Commercial Papers (CPs). The bank plans to issue CDs worth USD 3bn and CPs worth USD 2bn. (Source: The Peninsula) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP May 15 , 2016 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,046.6 (0.5) (0.9) 0.1 MSCI EM 796.1 (1.2) (5.3) 0.2 17,535.3 (1.2) (1.3) 0.6 S&P GCC 1,463.5 (0.1) (3.6) 1.2 Nasdaq 4,326.5 (0.1) (0.3) (5.8) Dow Jones Islamic 2,782.3 (0.5) (1.9) (0.6) FTSE 100 6,138.5 0.2 (1.7) (1.7) KSA (TASI) 6,694.8 0.6 (1.6) (3.1) DAX 30 9,952.9 0.8 (0.9) (7.4) UAE (DFM) 3,344.7 1.1 (4.2) 6.1 CAC 40 4,320.0 0.4 (2.5) (6.8) UAE (ADX) 4,387.3 (0.9) (3.4) 1.9 BIST 100 77,808.4 (0.7) (8.8) 8.5 Qatar (DSM) 9,941.4 2.0 (2.4) (4.7) Nikkei S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 16,412.2 1.9 (1.5) (13.8) Kuwait (KSE) 5,395.5 0.4 0.1 (3.9) Sh. Comp 2,827.1 (3.0) (3.8) (20.1) Bahrain (BAX) 1,111.5 (0.1) 0.1 (8.6) Hang Seng 19,719.3 (1.9) (6.4) (10.0) Oman (MSM) 5,969.5 (0.2) 0.5 10.4 Sensex 25,489.6 1.0 (0.5) (2.4) Jordan (ASEGI) 2,097.2 (0.3) 0.1 (1.8) Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 1.9 Nikkei Sensex DAX 30 CAC 40 FTSE 100 Nasdaq Jordan (ASEGI) S&P 500 BIST 100 MSCI EM DJIA Hang Seng Sh. Comp (0.1) (0.3) (0.5) (0.7) (1.2) (1.2) (1.9) (3.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 8.5 BIST 100 DJIA MSCI EM S&P 500 FTSE 100 Jordan (ASEGI) Sensex Nasdaq CAC 40 DAX 30 Hang Seng Nikkei Sh. Comp 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 (1.7) (1.8) (2.4) (5.8) (6.8) (7.4) (10.0) (13.8) (20.1) (30.0) 3.0 Source: Bloomberg (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 2.0 Qatar (DSM) (0.1) KSA (TASI) Oman (MSM) (0.2) Kuwait (KSE) UAE (ADX) (0.5) Qatar (DSM) (1.0) (3.1) (3.9) (4.7) Bahrain (BAX) (8.6) (0.9) (2.0) (0.6) Dow Jones Islamic Bahrain (BAX) Dow Jones Islamic 1.2 S&P GCC (0.1) S&P GCC 1.9 UAE (ADX) 0.4 Kuwait (KSE) 6.1 UAE (DFM) 0.6 KSA (TASI) 10.4 Oman (MSM) 1.1 UAE (DFM) 0.0 1.0 2.0 (10.0) 3.0 Source: Bloomberg (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Global Global markets ended the week on a mixed note. US markets closed the week marginally lower, failing to hold strong gains that were recorded earlier on Tuesday. Better-than-expected April retail sales could not benefit the market and benchmarks did not make much headway as the Consumer stocks reported disappointing earnings. DJIA and S&P500 surrendered 1.2% and 0.5% for the week while, the Nasdaq slipped slightly by 0.1%. European markets ended the week in green, defying unimpressive data on economic growth and inflation for Eurozone. CAC 40 and DAX 30 rose 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively, while FTSE 100 closed 0.2% higher. In Asia, Japanese stocks moved higher for the first four trading sessions of the week but gave up some of those gains on Friday. Nikkei gained 1.9% over the week with the yen weakening against the US dollar. The Shanghai Composite ended the week 3.0% lower following weak trade data. GCC Gulf markets ended on a mixed note, tracking daily movements in oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s index started on a positive note buoyed by a sweeping reorganization of its economic policy-making apparatus, which saw change in oil minister and the governor. The momemtum was however restricted after real estate companies retreated following the announced of a 2.5% tax of undeveloped urban land. Rise in Brent oil prices during the later half of the week supported the index, which closed 0.6% in green for the week. Dubai’s benchmark closed 1.1% higher for the week buoyed by rise in the Real Estate, Transportation and Investment sectors. Qatar QE index outperformed peer GCC indices, closing 2% in geen supported by strong buying support from foreign institutions and local retail investors. Heavy demand was witnessed in Consumer Goods, Telecom, Real estate counters. In terms of volume Banking, Industrials and Realty stocks constituted 74% of total traded. Of the 44 stocks listed, 33 rose, only nine fell and one was unchanged. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX Indicator 14,000 12,000 10,000 9,941.4 8,000 Nov-15 Dec-15 Index Feb-16 50 SMA 100 SMA Mar-16 200 SMA May-16 Price Last Close 9,941.4 MAVG 50 10,200.0 MAVG 100 9,929.1 MAVG 200 10,570.0 6 Month High 10,836.2 6 Month Low 8,516.8 RSI (14 Days) 43.3 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP May 15 , 2016 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 5.00 2.93 4.25 3.00 4.00 1.87 2.00 2.55 1.46 1.50 1.00 0.75 3.00 2.00 1.70 1.49 1.21 0.54 2 Yrs 0.00 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current 2.60 1.22 2.20 1.73 0.81 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 4.19 2.41 2.26 1.00 0.50 0.00 3.16 2.14 2.50 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) US 21.2 (0.4) 1.0 2.0 UK 35.5 0.0 (6.5) 16.7 Germany 18.0 0.0 0.5 France 38.5 (0.4) Italy 131.0 Greece Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGIB 2017 101.5 19.0 0.61 (0.0) (0.3) QGS 2018 101.2 50.6 1.19 NA (0.1) QGIB 2019 114.1 57.4 1.44 0.1 (0.9) 5.5 QGIB 2020 111.1 106.3 2.03 0.1 0.2 6.0 12.5 Qatari Diar 2020 110.9 116.4 2.25 NA (1.6) 1.3 (1.0) 34.3 QGIB 2022 111.0 119.5 2.36 0.2 1.3 1,072.2 (107.9) (133.5) (9.9) QGS 2023 104.3 122.9 2.49 0.1 0.6 Russia 254.9 (11.1) (14.1) (52.4) QGIB 2030 162.8 223.4 3.87 0.0 4.8 Japan 38.0 (1.3) (4.5) (10.6) QGIB 2040 132.6 230.2 4.18 (0.2) 6.0 Turkey 270.8 (0.7) 28.7 (6.2) QGIB 2042 123.4 230.7 4.21 (0.2) 5.8 5 Years CDS Global Brazil 329.5 (19.4) (6.5) (174.6) Egypt 480.6 0.1 27.6 1.8 Abu Dhabi 95.0 (0.9) 11.3 2.4 Bahrain 358.8 (1.2) (9.5) (6.8) Dubai 213.0 (7.6) 3.3 (20.7) Qatar 99.0 0.1 14.0 6.4 Saudi Arabia 155.7 (1.6) 12.7 (0.1) GCC US Swap Rates Tenor Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 0.626 (0.004) 0.013 6M LIBOR 0.907 (0.001) 0.061 12M LIBOR 1.227 0.003 0.049 2 years 0.882 0.007 (0.297) 5 years 1.168 (0.021) (0.577) 10 years 1.571 (0.059) (0.618) 77.1 30 years 2.072 (0.068) (0.550) International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe Source: Bloomberg, QCB 77.1 (2.4) 4.0 iTraxx Europe Crossover 324.5 (8.4) 13.4 324.5 Source: Bloomberg CDX North America IG 83.3 (1.9) 5.5 83.3 Commentary CDX North America HY 453.5 (5.1) 22.1 453.5 iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 80.1 (5.0) 6.1 80.1 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 140.0 (10.6) 7.9 140.0 Treasury yields ended on a lower note, despite indications of strong consumer sentiments as showed by an uptick in University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment and an healthy 1.3% increase in retail sales. A risk-off sentiment drove strong demand for the USD 23bn 10-year note auction on Wednesday and led yields to a one-month low. Investment grade bonds remained strong buoyed by heavy new issuances, while high yield bonds got support from energy issuers on back of rising oil prices throughout the week. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP May 15 , 2016 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 47.8 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 46.2 Oil prices rallied 5.4% this week supported by a report from IEA which said global crude inventories will experience a “dramatic reduction” in the second half of the year on the back of strong demand and falling supplies. A fall in US crude inventories and concerns over outages in Canada and Nigeria, further boosted the rally. Baker Hughes data showing a decline of 10 in the number of US rigs actively drilling for crude and an OPEC report suggesting a reduction in glut were also major positive for the commodity. Gold and Silver closed the week 1.6% and 2.2% in red pressured by overall strength in the US dollar. Upbeat data on consumer spending further raised scope of an interest rate hike dampning value of the precious metals. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.1 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,272.7 Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.0 Copper (USD/lb) 207.5 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) Brent WTI Crude Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper (3.5) YTD Performance (%) 5.4 (0.2) (1.6) (2.2) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 28.3 24.8 23.1 20.0 Brent WTI Crude Silver Gold Copper Natural Gas 3.5 6.0 (2.8) (10.3) (20.0) Source: Bloomberg (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.4395 USD/INR 66.2737 EUR/USD 1.1339 USD/CNY 6.5320 CAD/USD 0.7729 USD/TRY 2.9701 AUD/USD 0.7271 USD/EGP 8.8807 NZD/USD 0.6775 USD/ZAR 15.4038 108.6300 USD/RUB 65.4525 USD/JPY Commentary USD gained against most of its peers on back of surprisingly strong reading on US retail-sales growth, which calmed worries about slowing economic growth while bolstering the Federal Reserve’s case for raising interest rates twice this year. The currency also got a boost from Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator which is forecasting GDP growth of 2.8% for the Q2-16, up from 1.7% expected on May 4. Yen closed the week 1.4% in red as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated on Friday that there is room to ease monetary policy further. RUB bucked the broader trend ending the week in green buoyed by gains in oil prices. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) RUB EGP CAD GBP CNY INR NZD EUR AUD JPY TRY ZAR (4.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) RUB JPY CAD EUR ZAR AUD CNY NZD INR TRY GBP EGP 0.5 (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) (0.8) (0.8) (1.3) (1.4) (1.4) (3.4) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 11.4 10.7 6.9 4.1 0.5 (0.2) (0.6) (0.8) (1.2) (1.7) (2.5) (11.8) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall Commercial Bank or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4