GCC Daily Market Update - 21 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 21 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,083.3 17,804.9 4,400.2 6,204.0 9,962.0 4,340.8 77,523.1 15,965.3 20,510.2 2,888.8 26,866.9 12.0 129.7 25.8 182.9 330.7 146.9 2,092.6 365.6 340.2 3.7 241.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 3.0 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.3 1.7 0.1 0.9 (0.7) 0.1 (2.7) (0.4) (2.9) (3.7) (0.4) (7.4) (1.5) (1.0) 0.7 1.9 2.2 (4.2) (0.6) (7.3) (6.4) 8.1 (16.1) (6.4) (18.4) 2.9 9,825.3 6,558.9 4,481.0 3,305.9 5,431.7 5,784.5 1,115.4 1,455.9 2,839.6 19.6 16.5 (43.4) 9.3 (25.8) (23.0) 2.6 22.1 40.5 0.2 0.3 (1.0) 0.3 (0.5) (0.4) 0.2 1.5 1.5 3.0 1.7 5.4 (0.2) 0.6 (0.5) 0.3 2.5 (0.4) (5.8) (5.1) 4.0 4.9 (3.3) 7.0 (8.3) 0.6 1.5 50.7 49.4 2.7 1,290.0 209.3 1.5 1.4 0.1 (2.5) 4.2 3.0 2.9 4.7 (0.2) 2.1 1.4 0.2 19.6 6.2 (0.7) 35.2 32.9 17.1 21.7 (2.5) Source: Bloomberg Global Global indices staged a rally on Monday after polls showed a resurgence in support for the UK to remain in the European Union this weekend. Major US stock indices notched their biggest gains in nearly a month with 9 out of 10 sector closing in green. Gains were led by commodity-linked shares as crude oil prices jumped. European markets staged a strong performance with the broad based Stoxx 600 closing 3.6% higher led by Bank shares (+4.5%). Banking shares have recently experienced a sell-off amidst Brexit’s impact on banks’ funding costs and profits. A sharp rebound in Japanese stocks helped lead most Asian markets higher, however India’s Sensex was relatively muted after news over the weekend that central bank Gov. Raghuram Rajan would step down when his term ends in September. GCC Gulf markets closed on a mixed note on Monday. Saudi Arabia’s index rose 0.3% in modest trading volume. Builder Abdullah Al Khodari advanced 1.2% on hopes that the Construction sector is due for a surge in demand due to a 2.5% tax on undeveloped urban land. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark closed 1.0% lower, as a rally in Banks (following prospects of consolidation in industry) subsided. First Gulf Bank retreated 3.4% after gaining 11.5% on Sunday on proposed talks of merger with NBAD. However NBAD added 4.4%, as investors assumed NBAD is benefitting more from the merger. Dubai's index climbed 0.3% in low volumes with builder Arabtec, the most traded stock, adding 1.5%. Qatar QE index closed marginally higher, ending 0.2% in green. Industrial counter led its peer indices closing 0.55% higher backed by an increase of 0.8% in Gulf International Services which saw the highest trading activity. The Real Estate and Banking sectors also advanced by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Trading volumes were 19.8% higher vis-à-vis Sunday. Out of 44 stocks listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 25 advanced, 13 declined and 3 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.1 1.5 4.1 32.4 10,400 DSM 20 13.5 1.5 4.2 27.5 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.1 1.5 3.8 789.7 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.5 5.4 47.0 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.1 1.2 4.2 31.9 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.0 4.4 68.6 8,400 24/Mar Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.3 4.5 3.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.3 0.4 4.9 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Dlala Holding Qatar Islamic Insurance Mannai Corporation Widam Food Co Qatar National Cement Top Losers Qatar Ind. Manufactur Gulf Warehousing Co Qatar & Oman Inv Co Ooredoo Qsc Commercial Bank Qsc Close Price 21.2 59.5 89.0 61.5 85.9 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.9 4.8 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 14.5 (17.4) (6.6) 16.5 (7.4) (22.3) (27.4) (20.3) (2.2) (22.4) 52.4 NA 0.4 12.6 0.1 8.2 33.7 14.2 4.9 11.1 40.4 58.4 10.9 89.3 37.1 (0.6) (0.6) (0.1) (0.7) (0.2) (1.5) (1.0) (0.8) (0.8) (0.5) 1.4 2.6 (11.3) 19.1 (19.2) (13.8) (14.9) (31.2) 3.6 (31.3) 4.8 0.5 0.4 90.8 40.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 10.4 15.8 26.0 11.5 11.3 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 15.0 9,825.3 10.0 5.0 0.0 7/Apr 21/Apr 5/May Index Volume (mn) 19/May 2/Jun 16/Jun Index Value Closing Level 2,655.1 6,385.3 3,052.6 3,989.2 2,454.9 1,106.8 2,463.0 1D Change (%) 0.3 0.1 0.6 (0.2) 0.4 (0.7) (0.3) Buy (%) 31.4 27.2 58.6 11.9 29.5 41.4 Sell (%) 39.4 26.1 65.5 14.4 20.1 34.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 21 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  Canadian wholesale sales edged higher in April-16 for the first time in three months, to 0.1% MoM in April-16 to CAD 54.81bn (USD 42.56bn), according to the Statistics Canada. Wholesale sales were up in volume terms by 0.2%, while inventories declined 0.3% to CAD 72.16bn. (Source: WSJ)  Eurozone construction output decreased for the third straight month in April-16. Construction output dropped 0.2% MoM in April-16 after falling 1% MoM in March-16. (Source: RTT news)  UK house price was up 0.8% MoM in May-16 to reach GBP 310,471 followed by 0.4% increase in April-16. On a yearly basis, house prices advanced 5.5%, slowing from 7.8% in the previous month. (Source: RTT)   Japan had a merchandise trade deficit of JPY 40.7bn in May-16 following the JPY 823.5bn surplus in April-16, according to the Ministry of Finance. Exports were down 11.3% YoY. Imports skidded an annual 13.8%. (Source: ISE) The Petroleum Development Oman and Oman Air has signed a MoU to support the jobseekers. Along with the training of 100 Oman Air customer service staff, 400 jobs will be created for young Omanis at Muscat’s new international airport. (Source: Arabian Business)  The Central Bank of Bahrain’s issue of Sukuk Al-Salam Islamic securities, amounting to BHD 43mn, with the expected return of 2.05% and maturity of 91 days, has been oversubscribed by 102%. (Source: CBB)  Bahrain Bourse announced the listing of 10 issues in the Treasury Bills Market worth BHD 741mn, issued by the Central Bank of Bahrain with discount rates ranging between 2.03% and 2.86% for 3-12 months. (Source: CPI Financial)  Bahrain is keen on enhancing its relations and cooperation with Russia in various areas. The economic, trade and investment fields are areas of cooperation that should be broadened in light of the robust and outstanding ties binding the two countries, according to the Adviser to the Prime Minister. (Source: Gulf News)  Bahrain’s Kanoo Group has acquired a 100% stake in Saudi’s Technical Contracting Company who is an approved vendor to major companies such as Aramco, Sabic, Saudi Electricity Company, Saline Water Conversion Corporation and the Royal Commission. (Source: Arabian House prices in Australia were down 0.2% in Q1-16 following the 0.2% gain in the previous quarter, according the Australian Bureau of Statistics. On a yearly basis, house price advanced 6.8%. (Source: RTT) GCC NEWS   The Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting announced that investments in the manufacturing of cement, lime and plaster in the GCC reached USD 18.1bn in 2015. The number of factories manufacturing cement, lime and plaster in the GCC grew from 59 in 2011 to 69 in 2016, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%. Business)  Arabian Business)  Capital Intelligence Ratings announced that it has affirmed the Financial Strength Rating of Al Baraka Islamic Bank at ‘BB’, with a ‘Stable’ Outlook. (Source: CPI Financial)  Kuwait’s trade surplus with Japan dropped 67.7% YoY to JPY 24.6bn (USD 235mn) in May-16 as exports more than halved, according to the Finance Ministry of Kuwait. Kuwait’s overall exports dropped 57.1% YoY to JPY 36.8bn (USD 351mn), while overall imports increased by 27.7% YoY to JPY 12.1bn (USD 116mn) in May-16. (Source: Kuna) (Source: QNA)   UAE‘s bilateral trade with Poland has tripled over the last five years, reaching around USD 1bn (AED 3.67bn) in 2015, and is expected to grow further, according to the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Abu Dhabi. (Source: Gulf News) Moody's has upgraded Emirates NBD’s long-term deposit and senior unsecured ratings to A3 from Baa1 and the bank's Counterparty Risk Assessment to A2(cr)/P-1(cr) from A3(cr)/P-2(cr) following the upgrade of its baseline credit assessment to ba1 from ba2. (Source: CPI Financial)  QATAR NEWS  A moderate acceleration in economic expansion from 2017 will support continuous investments into Qatar's Healthcare sector and provide greater opportunities for multinational drug makers, according to a report by BMI Research. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Arab region has witnessed an unprecedented rise in fertilizer exports to Brazil for the Q1-16 with a total of 1.14mn tons. Qatar emerged as the second largest exporter of fertilizer to the South American country from the Arab world, with exports of over 305,000 tons, or more than one-fourth of the total, CEO of Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce said. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar's Ministry of Economy and Commerce in collaboration with AlAttiya Motors and Trading Co., has recalled 2010 Kia Cerato vehicles due to a possibility of leak in the automatic transmission tube. (Source: Sales of villas on the Palm Jumeirah have fallen 25% in the past 12 months, according to the real estate company, Core. Sales of Prime villas, worth more than AED 10mn, dipped 44% YoY. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai’s overall transaction volume of both land and property sales dropped by 20% in 2015, according to CBRE Middle East. While, the total value of real estate transactions jumped 22.5% to USD 72.7bn in 2015 compared to USD 59.3bn in 2014. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE’s cruise tourism industry has recorded a 16% increase in passengers and 20% increase in vessel calls during the 2015-16 cruise season, according to Abu Dhabi Ports. Abu Dhabi Cruise Terminal is the major contributor with 231,660 tourists in 2015-16, compared to the 35,366 passengers in 2006-07. (Source: Trade Arabia) A new venture designed to collect USD 1.1bn (BHD 400mn) to revive four stalled developments in Bahrain has been proposed by industry experts. The company, which will be established in the form of a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), would help restart work on Marina West, Amwaj Gateway, Juffair Views and Sunset Hills Projects. (Source: The Peninsula)  Capital Intelligence Ratings announced that it has affirmed the Financial Strength Rating (FSR) of the Saudi British Bank at ‘A+’ and the Short-Term FCR at ‘A1’. (Source: CPI Financial)  The Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (Qeeri) is engaged in intensive effort to increase the efficiency of Photovoltaics and producing solar energy at a significantly low cost. (Source: Gulf Times)  Bank Al Bilad has received regulatory approval to issue a capitalboosting sukuk worth as much as SAR 2bn (USD 533.3mn). The issue will enhance its Tier 2 capital. (Source: Reuters)   Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in April-16 fell despite high production levels. Crude exports fell to 7.44mn barrels in April-16 per day from 7.54mn bpd in March-16. The country produced 10.26mn bpd in April16, compared with 10.22mn bpd a month earlier, according to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative. (Source: Reuters) Qatar Armed Forces’ Reconnaissance and Surveillance Centre announced that it had signed a MoU with Texas A&M University at Qatar to increase collaboration on research into the remotecontrolled surveillance aircraft. (Source: Al-bawaba)  The Zakat Fund under the Ministry of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs distributed the total aid amounting to QAR 17.8mn among various social groups during May-16. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 21 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1344 USD/QAR 3.6405 103.9400 EUR/QAR 4.1298 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4728 JPY/QAR 0.0350 USD/CHF 0.9621 GBP/QAR 5.3617 USD/CAD 1.2806 CHF/QAR 3.7839 AUD/USD 0.7457 CAD/QAR 2.8428 NZD/USD 0.7120 AUD/QAR 2.7147 USD/INR 66.8187 INR/QAR 0.0545 USD/TRY 2.9064 TRY/QAR 1.2526 USD/ZAR 14.8402 ZAR/QAR 0.2453 USD/BRL 3.3947 BRL/QAR 1.0724 FX Commentary The US dollar fell on Monday as GBP marched towards registering its largest one-day percentage gain since 2008, after the opinion polls suggested reduced chances of Britain’s exit from the European Union. Against the USD, the GBP was trading about 2.3% higher towards the end, its largest one-day gain since December 15, 2008. The GBP also surged about 2.3% against JPY. Similarly, the EUR slipped 1.9% against the GBP, during the day. However, against the JPY, the EUR gained about 0.1%. The dollar index that measures the strength of the USD against a basket of major currencies, fell to 93.449 in early trading, its lowest level in over two weeks. The index was trading 0.6% down at 93.654, towards the end. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.45 0.64 1.24 (0.40) (0.37) (0.36) (0.27) (0.03) QAIBOR 1.16 1.27 1.40 1.58 1.96 SAIBOR NA NA 2.03 2.23 2.49 EIBOR 0.39 0.44 0.72 1.15 1.70 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.35 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.33% 5.0% 2.26% 2.50% 2.50% 1.04% 5 Yrs 1.34% 1.63% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.96% 0.0% 2.46% 0.59% 2 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 20.4 1.4 Turkey 250.8 (16.5) UK 35.6 16.1 Brazil 332.9 (170.3) Germany 18.0 5.3 Egypt 476.5 (0.5) France 43.0 17.5 Abu Dhabi Italy 142.9 41.8 Greece 988.5 Russia 248.9 Japan 40.5 2.15% 1.80% 2.0% 0.0% 2.45% 0.91% 0.88% 2 Yrs 1.33% 1.15% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 1.54% 10 Yrs Last Year 2.91% 2.00% 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 95.1 9.4 Bahrain 394.0 31.5 (63.6) Dubai 191.7 (44.5) (63.6) Qatar 107.2 22.4 (9.5) Saudi Arabia 184.8 29.8 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 7:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Period Survey Prior Apr 1.20% 0.10% 8:00 Japan 11:30 UK Supermarket Sales YoY May -- (0.70%) Public Finances (PSNCR) May -- (2.4b) 11:30 11:30 UK Central Government NCR May -- 3.0b UK Public Sector Net Borrowing May 9.4b 6.6b 11:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups May 9.5b 7.2b 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Jun 53 53.1 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Jun 4.8 6.4 12:00 Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Jun -- 16.8 13:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Jun (10) (8) 13:00 UK CBI Trends Selling Prices Jun -- 2 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 21 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.0 0.0 8.6 1.7 6.2 5.2 2.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.5 6.5 2.1 5.5 3.7 5.3 4.4 4.6 5.0 0.0 8.9 4.4 4.8 5.1 7.4 2.7 5.1 5.7 3.7 3.7 2.6 7.3 3.9 4.5 4.1 5.2 2.7 2.8 6.9 3.0 6.8 2.8 2.1 7.9 4.1 3.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.6 2.1 5.4 5.8 5.1 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.9 2.2 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.2 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.8 3.8 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 3.2 2.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.9 3.1 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 2.5 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.4 9.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.1 12.0 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.0 11.7 10.2 26.2 10.6 18.3 24.5 15.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.1 6.9 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.3 8.1 20.1 14.7 22.4 10.6 10.9 14.6 19.0 8.8 16.2 4.7 12.3 11.0 27.8 27.1 12.9 9.8 22.7 11.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 15.1 18.1 12.9 9.1 11.5 12.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 23.4 70.7 20.0 32.8 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 41.7 37.3 20.2 34.9 61.0 16.1 33.6 17.9 11.7 95.5 61.6 138.5 11.0 94.1 206.0 32.5 151.6 11.5 11.2 60.8 83.5 13.0 37.4 99.0 87.7 18.9 200.9 47.6 41.0 85.0 24.6 19.1 72.0 48.8 58.0 32.3 17.6 13.3 19.1 90.0 10.5 59.0 23.2 85.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4