GCC Daily Market Update - 9 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 9 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,139.6 18,332.7 4,804.9 6,843.1 10,482.3 4,476.9 76,367.8 17,171.4 22,909.5 3,147.9 27,591.1 8.0 73.1 31.2 36.2 25.4 15.7 685.8 (5.8) 108.1 14.6 132.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 (0.0) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.1 (1.6) (1.7) (0.7) (2.8) (1.5) (0.1) 1.5 (1.2) 4.7 5.2 4.6 9.6 (2.4) (3.5) 6.5 (9.8) 4.5 (11.1) 5.6 9,985.3 6,327.8 4,347.9 3,306.7 5,469.6 5,439.2 1,144.3 1,480.8 2,891.2 21.2 130.1 59.7 25.8 26.3 (19.3) (5.1) 1.2 9.6 0.2 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 (0.4) (0.5) 0.1 0.3 (1.8) 5.2 1.1 (0.8) 1.3 (0.8) (0.4) (1.0) 0.1 (4.3) (8.4) 0.9 4.9 (2.6) 0.6 (5.9) 3.2 3.0 46.0 45.0 2.6 1,274.5 238.0 (0.1) 0.1 (0.2) (4.9) 7.1 (0.2) 0.2 (6.5) (0.4) 3.1 (7.2) (7.1) (14.3) 0.1 5.7 20.2 17.5 10.9 20.2 9.1 Source: Bloomberg Global Most Global stocks rose on Tuesday after the last round of national polls showed Clinton with a steady but narrow lead over Trump. US Equities continued their upward trajectory, however remained cautious ahead of the presidential results. S&P closed 0.4% higher, with gains led by Utilities. European stocks rose, tracking the global positive sentiment. DAX gained 0.2% as the Germany's trade surplus grew better than expected. Gains were however capped over disappointing industrial production. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell marginally pulled back by strengthening yen. Shanghai Composite rose 0.5%, despite poor than expected Chinese trade data. GCC Most Gulf Markets rose on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s index continued to outperform the regional indices rising 2.1%, buoyed by the reports that the Riyadh government aims to settle its unpaid debts to the private sector before the end of December. Construction sector was the major beneficiary of the news. Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries, the only listed drug producer, gained 2.8% after the energy minister said on Sunday that government planned to develop automotive, pharmaceutical and solar industries. Abu Dhabi's index rose 1.4% as Aldar Properties gained 1.5%, after the company reported better than expected results. Dubai’s Index rose 0.8% lifted by gains in Emaar Properties which rose 2.5%. Qatar QE index continued its upward trajectory for the second straight session lifted by Telecom, Industrials and Insurance stocks. Telecom sector benefitted from a 0.9% gain in Vodafone Qatar, after the company reported lower than anticipated net loss. Foreign institutions continued to be net buyers, however bearish bets by Qatari institutions limited gains. Trade turnover and volumes declined in the market, where telecom, industrials and banking stocks together constituted about three-fourth of the total traded. Out of 44 stocks listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 16 gained, 20 fell and 03 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.5 4.1 86.8 DSM 20 14.5 1.5 4.1 73.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.0 1.5 3.7 1,556.3 UAE (ADX) 11.2 1.4 5.6 81.4 UAE (DFM) 11.8 1.2 4.2 118.9 Kuwait (KSE) 18.8 1.0 4.3 73.3 Oman (MSM) 10.3 1.1 5.3 5.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Industries Qatar Commercial Bank Qsc Vodafone Qatar Doha Insurance Co Aamal Co Top Losers Qatari Investors Group Al Khalij Com. Bank National Leasing Medicare Group Dlala Holding Close Price 101.2 35.0 10.5 18.3 13.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 (8.9) (23.7) (17.4) (13.1) (6.4) (11.2) 95.1 18.3 (33.0) 330.7 33.2 (22.9) 2,279.3 NA (20.3) 0.5 9.2 (3.3) 7.4 13.0 55.1 17.5 14.3 61.8 21.5 (2.4) (0.7) (0.4) (1.5) (0.5) (4.2) (3.8) (2.9) (2.4) (2.2) 46.2 (2.6) 1.4 (48.2) 16.3 26.2 1,604.0 24.0 (14.6) 16.5 10.8 (12.8) 233.2 NA (59.6) 138.4 20.0 3.4 2.5 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 14/Aug 30.0 20.0 9,985.3 10.0 0.0 28/Aug 11/Sep 25/Sep Index Volume (mn) 9/Oct 23/Oct 6/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,805.8 5,726.1 3,020.4 4,453.1 2,246.2 1,133.4 2,396.1 1D Change (%) 0.1 (0.0) 0.4 0.4 (0.3) 0.6 (0.4) Buy (%) 20.0 11.9 31.9 5.6 62.6 68.2 Sell (%) 21.9 57.9 79.8 4.6 15.6 20.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 9 , 2016 Bank of Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank and First Gulf Bank are the deal underwriters. (Source: Reuters) GLOBAL NEWS  US consumers’ credit balances rose 6.3% YoY (USD 19.3bn) in September-16 compared to a rise of 8.8% YoY in August-16, driven by 6.7% YoY (USD 15.1bn) increase in non-revolving credit, largely student and auto loans. Revolving credit, mostly credit cards rose at a 5.16% YoY pace for the period. (Source: WSJ)  Brazilian Investment Bank, Grupo BTG Pactual SA plans to exit USD 1.3bn (50% stake) venture with the Abu Dhabi government's investment arm- Ariel Re as the bank intends to focus on core activities, reduce assets and put the brakes on a global expansion since the arrest of its founder André Esteves in November-15. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of England said that Britain's banks would be given an extra two years until 2022 to build up sufficient funds to ensure they do not need to rely on taxpayer bailouts if such a situation arises. (Source: Reuters)   British industrial output fell 0.4% MoM in September-16 mainly due to warm weather and maintenance at North Sea oil and gas fields which hit power production. However, output in factories rose 0.6% MoM for the period. (Source: Reuters) Aldar Properties reported 16.0% YoY rise to AED 737.0mn in Q3-16 from AED 638.0mn for the same period in 2015, due to high occupancy rates at Yas Mall and its other office and residential properties. Yas Mall had a 96% occupancy rate, while its residential portfolio occupancy rate stood at 94% in Q3-16. (Source: The National)  Saudi Arabia's government will clear all its debts to private companies by December-16, according to a committee set under the Council of Economic and Development Affairs. Payments were delayed due to the sharp decline in oil revenue and the measures taken by the country to reduce spending on a number of projects. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Pecsa, a JV between South Korea's Posco Engineering & Construction Company and Saudi Public Investment Fund has been awarded a USD 900.0mn contract to build five hotel towers in Madinah region of the country. These four-star hotel towers will have a combined total of 3,070 rooms. (Source: trade Arabia)  Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) is targeting savings of around USD 3.0bn over a five-year period through cost optimization, waste elimination and efficiency-driven initiatives. The savings are being accrued mainly as a result of a program of contract optimization reviews that PDO has undertaken. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain has invited tenders to construct a multi-million dinar medical city in Bahrain’s Southern Governorate, with the contract set to be issued in December-16. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait's central bank reported 2.6% YoY increase in M2 money supply compared to 2.8% YoY rise in August-16, while M1 money supply rose 2.3% YoY for the period. The bank’s foreign assets fell 2.2% YoY to KWD 8.1bn in September-16 compared to KWD 7.7bn in previous month. (Source: Reuters)  German trade surplus rose to EUR 24.4bn in 9M-16 from EUR 22.3bn for the same period in 2015 as exports rose 0.8% YoY in 9M-16 while imports declined 0.2% YoY for the period. (Source: Economic Calendar)  Japan reported a current account surplus of JPY 10.36tn in the sixmonth period of April to September, up 20.5% YoY mainly due to a drop in imports amid lower oil prices and stronger yen. (Source: Global Times)   China consumer price inflation grew 2.1% YoY in October-16 compared to 1.9% YoY increase in September-16. The inflation was majorly driven by 3.7% YoY rise in food prices. (Source: Fortune) Turkish industrial output fell 3.8% MoM in September-16, as output from manufacturing segment dropped 3.9% MoM along with mining and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply output which fell 3.3% MoM for the period. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS  The UAE and Hong Kong have agreed to further develop trade ties and build logistics partnerships to take advantage of their productive international trade. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE has launched a development plan worth AED 1.3bn (USD 354.0mn) for Hatta in Dubai. The plan aims to boost the area’s social and economic attractiveness as a world class environmental tourist destination in the region. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority has signed an agreement with US-based pioneering mobility company Hyperloop One to study highspeed routes that will reduce travel time between Abu Dhabi and Dubai to 12 minutes from the present two-hour drive. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Chief Executive of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) received 30 Expressions of Interest (EOI) for the 200MW concentrated solar power plant, constituting Phase IV of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park. The plant will be operational by April-21 and the company intends to reach 1000MW by 2030 using CSP technology. QATAR NEWS  Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) signed a MoU with Elia Grid International, a Belgian firm to encourage the sharing of information, foster transmission development, network planning, KPIs enhancement, better asset management exchanging technical information and joint cooperation. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Ezdan Holding Group announced the official launch of Ezdan World that will focus and own projects in recreation and tourism sector. The company has already begun managing the operations of Magical Festival Village project in Cultural Village Katara. (Source: The Peninsula)  GE Energy Connections won a contract from L&T to support seven 66/11kV substations with advanced protection and automation systems in Qatar’s future smart city, the Lusail City megadevelopment. The project will also support the electricity needs for nearly 450,000 people residing in the city. (Source: Peninsula)  Qatar Chamber has started preparing a draft plan for the partnership law between the public and private sectors. The law will create an appropriate investment structure to attract local, regional and international investments as well as raising contribution of the private sector in the industrial development. (Source: The Peninsula)  Vodafone Qatar reported net loss QAR 64.0 mn for Q2-17 ending 30th September-16 which narrowed down from net loss of QAR 113.6 mn in Q2-16 and QAR 99.6 mn in Q1-17. Subscriber base fell 2.0% YoY to 1.45mn in Q2-17 mainly due disconnection of 85,000 lines that were without adequate customer information. (Source: Reuters) (Source: Trade Arabia)    Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) said in a statement that, it plans to expand Al Hosn gas facility (ADNOC’s JV with US-based Occidental Petroleum) adding 50% more processing capacity. The company further stated that the plant could become operational within the life span of ADNOC's new five-year business plan. (Source: Reuters) Dubai-based Binghatti Holding, an international investment holding company, has signed an integrated deal worth AED 25.0mn (USD 6.8mn) with Tetra Pak for a complete beverage processing plant. The agreement includes two filling and packaging lines to be used in a new food and beverage production plant at Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi. (Source: Trade Arabia) Etihad Airways plans to issue a debut USD-denominated benchmark sukuk with an approximate size of USD 1bn. HSBC, JP Morgan, National 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 9 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1056 USD/QAR 3.6410 105.1600 EUR/QAR 4.0255 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2409 JPY/QAR 0.0346 USD/CHF 0.9779 GBP/QAR 4.5181 USD/CAD 1.3288 CHF/QAR 3.7233 AUD/USD 0.7762 CAD/QAR 2.7401 NZD/USD 0.7386 AUD/QAR 2.8261 USD/INR 66.1225 INR/QAR 0.0551 USD/TRY 3.1561 TRY/QAR 1.1536 USD/ZAR 13.1866 ZAR/QAR 0.2761 USD/BRL 3.1686 BRL/QAR 1.1491 FX Commentary The dollar index rose to its highest level in a week on Tuesday as investors upped their bets on a win for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election. Market sources cited projections from data firm VoteCastr favoring Clinton in a number of key battleground states as the reason for the strength in greenback. The CAD was almost unchanged against its US counterpart, as positive factors like increased probability of Clinton winning elections and gains in oil prices were offset by downbeat housing sector data from Canada. EUR fell against greenback, retracing early gains, impacted by weak German industrial production data. GBP slipped lower against USD, as weak British industrial output data weighed on the currency. The dollar rose against the safe-haven JPY and CHF, amidst a risk on mode in the market. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.54 0.89 1.57 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) QAIBOR 1.22 1.33 1.48 1.74 2.14 SAIBOR NA NA 1.99 2.22 2.57 EIBOR 0.43 0.51 0.71 1.36 1.94 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.19 1.50 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 2.24% 1.96% 1.68% 0.98% 0.97% 1.94% 2.0% 0.0% 2.36% 2.36% 1.30% 1.65% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.74% 2.53% 0.57% 0.99% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 3.0% 1.0% 4.04% 4.0% 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 2.70% 1.98% 1.60% 1.40% 1.22% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 23.3 1.7 Turkey 264.5 (6.3) UK 37.6 2.1 Brazil 263.8 (84.0) Germany 19.7 1.4 Egypt 460.1 (20.4) 64.5 (31.4) France 28.8 (10.3) Abu Dhabi Italy 144.4 16.2 Bahrain 359.5 (0.5) Greece 929.7 (250.4) Dubai 144.3 (76.3) Russia 220.8 (44.4) Qatar 85.5 (13.4) Japan 32.5 (6.8) Saudi Arabia 129.7 (27.7) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Nov-04th -- (1.20%) 18:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Sep F 0.20% 0.20% 02:50 Japan Machine Orders MoM Sep (1.50%) (2.20%) 02:50 Japan Money Stock M2 YoY Oct 3.60% 3.60% 02:50 Japan Money Stock M3 YoY Oct 3.10% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) Vodafone Qatar QSC YoY (%) QoQ (%) (36.5) 537.2 (9.2) 1.7 (72.2) 4.8 Kuwait National Cinema Co NA NA NA 2.6 21.7 7.7 Bahrain Cinema Co 7.7 17.6 65.4 2.6 92.5 164.7 Bahrain Duty Free Complex Oman Insurance Co PSC Bahrain National Holding Emaar Properties PJSC Aldar Properties PJSC 7.7 0.9 12.4 2.0 6.0 30.4 440.3 1.3 1.3 24.2 (11.8) (27.3) 4.8 14.9 10.7 1.0 (15.8) 59.9 (9.9) NA NA NA 1,145.0 35.8 1,898.3 61.4 11.9 747.8 17.9 13.8 NA NA NA 116.8 1,973.8 1,356.1 Gulf Navigation Holding PJSC Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 9 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 8.6 0.0 8.4 1.9 5.6 5.1 3.5 0.0 4.2 6.5 1.9 5.9 3.4 6.5 8.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 0.0 9.3 4.4 5.3 5.8 7.3 3.3 4.9 4.5 3.5 2.3 7.1 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.5 2.2 3.0 8.1 2.7 7.1 3.2 2.2 7.9 4.5 3.3 2.0 3.0 2.3 5.6 5.8 5.3 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.5 0.8 2.3 1.0 2.2 1.1 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.6 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 3.9 0.7 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.4 3.0 2.8 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.6 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.4 18.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 11.0 12.1 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.1 11.7 10.7 27.8 11.2 7.1 20.0 21.4 13.5 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 13.1 5.7 11.2 13.1 34.0 18.4 19.1 14.7 23.9 10.1 10.7 17.2 18.0 9.2 19.4 4.0 12.2 12.0 12.3 23.9 14.5 12.4 18.4 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.2 15.4 12.8 11.0 12.2 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 38.6 34.9 21.5 35.9 54.5 17.9 34.1 14.3 9.7 101.1 61.5 155.1 10.1 77.5 61.9 173.5 28.1 142.7 10.2 10.8 62.0 76.2 13.1 30.8 101.4 15.6 212.9 55.1 42.0 83.0 21.0 18.1 85.4 45.0 49.7 31.1 15.6 12.4 19.1 91.8 10.5 52.6 22.5 85.6 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4