GCC Daily Market Update - 21 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 21 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,139.8 18,130.0 4,805.2 6,830.8 10,393.9 4,388.6 77,313.5 16,492.2 23,530.9 3,023.0 28,523.2 0.6 9.8 9.1 17.2 20.0 (5.6) (357.3) (27.1) (19.6) (3.1) (111.3) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 (0.1) (0.5) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (1.4) (1.5) 0.7 0.7 (1.9) (1.1) 1.8 (2.3) 2.4 (2.0) 0.2 4.7 4.0 4.6 9.4 (3.3) (5.4) 7.8 (13.4) 7.4 (14.6) 9.2 10,256.5 5,925.1 4,463.9 3,455.2 5,398.0 5,752.1 1,132.0 1,502.7 2,941.7 103.8 (10.8) (18.6) (29.6) (32.5) (10.6) (3.4) (16.3) 2.4 1.0 (0.2) (0.4) (0.9) (0.6) (0.2) (0.3) (1.1) 0.1 (6.7) (2.5) (0.2) (1.4) (0.4) 0.3 (0.9) (1.9) (0.5) (1.7) (14.3) 3.6 9.7 (3.9) 6.4 (6.9) 4.0 5.1 45.9 43.4 3.0 1,314.0 215.6 (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 (0.2) 0.3 3.9 0.0 0.3 (1.2) 0.4 6.6 0.5 4.2 24.7 21.1 31.7 23.9 1.0 Source: Bloomberg Global Global Markets ended on a mixed note on Tuesday. US Indices largely unchanged as investors expressed caution ahead of US Fed meet. Nasdaq gained 0.2% on the back of gains in biotechnology stocks, which benefitted from merger talks between Tobira and Allergen. Gains in Sarepta Therapeutics shares, on back of FDA approval to the company’s Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug, also boosted the sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1% following a quiet session in Asia ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Japan meeting. The German DAX edged up 0.2%, helped by a rise in Bayer shares as the company forecasted higher revenue and earnings after announcing a planned USD 66 bn takeover of Monsanto. In Asia. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.2% as yen strengthened. Shanghai Composite slipped 0.1% despite gains in property shares after upbeat home price data. GCC Most gulf indices edged lower on Tuesday on the back of drop in oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s Index slipped 0.2% weighed down by Banking shares ahead of uncertainty surrounding US Fed meet. Saudi Telecom Company bucked the negative trend, gaining 1.8% after Bloomberg reported that the company was exploring options for its USD 1.8 bn stake sale in Maxis. Dubai's index retreated 0.9%, on back of profit booking, while Abu Dhabi’s benchmark dropped 0.4% weighed by bluechips Abu Dhabi National Energy and Aldar Properties, which closed 3.9% and 1.5% lower. Qatar QE index rebounds 1% on foreign funds’ inflow, owing to FTSE inclusion of 22 local equities in its secondary emerging market indices. Buying interest was majorly witnessed in Insurance (2.1%), Transport (1.6%) and Telecom (0.8%) counters. In terms of volumes, Banking, Telecom and Industrials stocks together accounted for more than 72% of the total traded. Domestic and foreign institutions were the net buyers on the bourse. Out of the 44 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 21 advanced, 18 declined and 2 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.6 4.0 101.1 DSM 20 14.3 1.6 4.0 92.7 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.0 1.4 4.0 663.9 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.4 5.5 28.3 UAE (DFM) 12.4 1.3 4.3 59.3 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.0 4.4 14.5 Oman (MSM) 10.1 1.1 5.0 2.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.4 4.9 0.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Doha Bank Qsc Qatar Insurance Co Vodafone Qatar Qatar Gas Transport Masraf Al Rayan Top Losers Dlala Holding Al Khalij Com. Bank Qatari Investors Group Medicare Group Salam Int. Investme Close Price 36.4 87.0 10.5 22.7 34.6 1.1 2.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.9 (18.2) 25.1 (17.3) (2.8) (8.1) (27.8) 190.7 8.1 10.0 170.0 17.7 (21.6) 1,376.3 NA 2.2 419.2 12.7 (18.5) 1,090.0 12.2 21.4 17.1 48.0 88.5 11.0 (1.1) (0.9) (2.0) (2.4) (0.3) (4.8) (4.8) (4.0) (2.6) (2.6) 15.8 (5.0) 27.3 (25.8) (6.8) 8.8 (18.9) 6.9 (47.6) (10.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 40.9 NA 14.8 9.5 112.4 21.0 22.2 21.6 132.5 10.8 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 26/Jun 30.0 10,256.5 20.0 10.0 0.0 10/Jul 24/Jul 7/Aug Index Volume (mn) 21/Aug 4/Sep 18/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,823.4 6,289.1 3,067.5 4,545.2 2,460.6 1,169.2 2,412.5 1D Change (%) 0.7 (0.6) 0.2 2.1 0.6 0.8 1.6 Buy (%) 17.3 26.6 43.9 7.9 48.2 56.1 Sell (%) 31.5 17.1 48.6 8.4 43.0 51.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 21 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  A possible deal to support oil prices by the world's leading producer countries to stabilize the market by freezing output may last for one year, the Secretary General of OPEC said. He further added that, one potential stumbling block is Iran's insistence on boosting exports after sanctions on it were lifted in January-16. (Source: Reuters)  US housing starts fell 5.8% YoY to 1.17mn units in August-16, as bad weather disrupted building activity in the South, but a solid increase in permits for single-family dwellings suggested demand for housing remained intact. (Source: Reuters)  Microsoft Corp raised its quarterly dividend by 8% and said it would buy back up to USD 40bn as part of a new share repurchase program.  Dubai's Gulf Navigation Holding’s CEO said that it had reduced its debt by 41% to USD 21mn from USD 36mn and hopes to end a long-running dispute with creditors by consolidating all of its borrowing before the end of the year. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd has signed an agreement to acquire 80% of Jordan Aircraft Maintenance Limited from The Abraaj Group. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s Al Yamamah Steel Industries has won a SAR 180mn contract from Saudi Electricity Company to supply steel poles and accessories for its key projects in the kingdom. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman registered CPI-based inflation rate of 1.34% YoY for August-16, driven mainly by a 7.25% rise in prices in the transportation, according to the National Centre for Statistics & Information. Average inflation recorded a 0.88% YoY rise for January-16 to August-16 period. (Source: (Source: Reuters)    UK economy may weather its Brexit-induced slowdown better than many economists predicted, Bank of England policy maker Michael Saunders said. He expects the economy to slow but perhaps not as much as the consensus has been expecting. He expressed his optimism on back of loose monetary policy and underlying advantages of the economy. (Source: Bloomberg) Bank of France Governor warned the nation’s presidential candidates that they need to meet deficit-cutting commitments or risk losing credibility with other European Union governments. (Source: Bloomberg) Emerging market stock and bond funds had net inflows of USD 5.5bn for the month ended mid-September-16, a sharp drop from USD 16.5 bn poured in the previous period. Institute of International Finance attributes the fall to uncertainty over G3 central bank policies. (Source: Times Of Oman)  QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s private sector is the key driver in the country’s endeavor to transform its economy into a knowledge-based one, in line with the 2030 National Vision, the Minister of Economy and Commerce said. He reiterated the importance of non-oil sector played towards economic growth during the period from 2011 to 2015, (Source: The Peninsula)  Projects worth USD 200bn are underway in Qatar as the country is working on improving its infrastructure, the Minister of Economy and Commerce said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar‘s import from UK rose by 16% in 2015 and greater cooperation between the UK and Qatari businesses could unlock huge opportunities for both nations, the UK Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade said. He further added that there is vast potential for enhancing cooperation between the private sectors of the two countries. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and EU are in the first round of the comprehensive aviation agreement negotiations. The meeting discussed cooperation ties in the field of civil aviation and means of further enhancing them, as well as boosting bilateral relations at large between Qatar and the EU. Reuters)  Describing muted private investment and NPAs as speed-breakers amid slow reforms, Moody's said it could upgrade India's rating in 1-2 years if it is convinced that reforms are tangible. The agency further added that evidence of policymakers working towards a faster fiscal consolidation, reducing the debt-GDP ratio and addressing infrastructure challenges will determine an upgrade, going forward. (Source: Economic Times) GCC NEWS  A rescue plan for SME financing in the UAE has so far led to the restructuring or loans worth AED 7bn (USD 1.9bn), according to the UAE banks federation. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE-based builder Khansaheb has been awarded a USD 105mn contract to expand and upgrade Majid Al Futtaim’s City Centre Ajman. The contract includes the installation of additional mechanical and electrical systems to serve the expanded mall. The expansion is scheduled to complete in July-18. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi’s CPI rose by 2.4% in the first eight months of 2016 led by housing, power, water and fuel budget group, which saw an increase of 6.6%. (Source: Gulf News)  Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala is considering redistributing some of its USD 2bn worth of investments to another vehicle as part of the creation of an investment fund. (Source: Arabian (Source: The Peninsula)  Abu Dhabi Ports recorded 77% YoY jump in net profit and 20% YoY revenue growth In H1-16. Container volume increased to 699,776 Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit (TEUs), up from 629,941 TEUs in H1-15. Similarly, Roll-on/Roll-off (RoRo) traffic witnessed a growth of 4% YoY during the period. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Gulf Related’s (Developer of Abu Dhabi’s new Al Maryah Central) CoManaging Partner said that it he was confident of gaining one-fifth of the projected USD 12.2bn worth of retail spend in the capital by 2018. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar’s real estate transactions reached QAR 1.6bn in the period between 4th September-16 and 8th September-16, according to a report by the Real Estate Registration Department at the ministry of justice. The reported indicated that the sale operations were centered in Doha, Umm Salal, Al Khor, Al Zakhera, Al Rayyan and Al Wakra. (Source: Mubasher)  Qatar Re has emerged as the top reinsurance player in the MENA region with its gross premiums doubling in 2015 to USD 1.16bn, according to global insurance rating agency- A M Best. The growth in insurable risk has stemmed from a combination of increased insurance penetration, the introduction of compulsory covers for medical healthcare and liability business classes, as well as infrastructure development and increased commercial activity. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Development Bank (QDB) and Qatar Chamber has signed an agreement that saw QDB becoming the strategic sponsor of the fifth edition of ‘Made in Qatar’ exhibition to be held in Riyadh beginning 6th November-16. (Source: The Peninsula)  Hamad Medical Corporation has become the first healthcare provider in the world to have all its hospitals qualified under the US-based Joint Commission International’s Academic Medical Center accreditation program. (Source: The Peninsula) Business)  BP Oman and Sharakah signed an agreement to continue the Khazzan project for SME Development for third consecutive year. According to terms of the agreement, BP will fund the 12 months program while Sharakah will be responsible for developing 20 SMEs. (Source: Zawya) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 21 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1181 USD/QAR 3.6413 101.7000 EUR/QAR 4.0713 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3018 JPY/QAR 0.0358 USD/CHF 0.9791 GBP/QAR 4.7402 USD/CAD 1.3189 CHF/QAR 3.7190 AUD/USD 0.7556 CAD/QAR 2.7609 NZD/USD 0.7314 AUD/QAR 2.7514 USD/INR 66.5163 INR/QAR 0.0547 USD/TRY 2.9781 TRY/QAR 1.2227 USD/ZAR 13.9145 ZAR/QAR 0.2617 USD/BRL 3.2589 BRL/QAR 1.1173 FX Commentary The dollar index rose 0.2% against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday in light trading as investors made limited moves ahead of Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve policy meet. GBP fell against the greenback after the head of Germany's Bundesbank warned on Monday that banks based in Britain could lose "passporting" access to EU markets after Brexit, adding to worries about the political and economic risks from Britain's pending exit from the European Union. The JPY rose 0.1% against the USD as investors remained skeptical on the effectiveness of central bank stimulus. CAD started on a negative note as the governor of the Bank of Canada said interest rates will stay low for longer given strong economic headwinds, however pared losses on back of gains in WTI prices. The commodity-linked currency, AUD and NZD gained as US oil prices rose. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.45 0.54 0.86 1.56 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.06) QAIBOR 0.99 1.10 1.38 1.55 1.92 SAIBOR NA NA 2.07 2.35 2.65 EIBOR 0.32 0.46 0.76 1.22 1.78 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.38 1.85 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 3.98% 4.0% 2.28% 2.28% 1.07% 1.36% 1.65% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.13% 2.0% 0.0% 1.97% 0.60% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.43% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.4 5.5 Turkey 263.4 11.2 UK 32.9 (3.7) Brazil 282.2 (88.4) Germany 18.3 (1.1) Egypt 481.8 (8.4) France 28.9 (5.2) Abu Dhabi 69.7 (23.3) 137.4 12.4 Bahrain 385.6 18.0 2.67% 1.82% 1.49% 2.0% 2.14% 1.04% 1.0% 0.0% 0.79% 2 Yrs 1.37% 1.23% 1.54% 1.89% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,055.3 (35.9) Dubai 153.6 (46.2) Russia 221.3 (61.0) Qatar 94.0 (2.3) Japan 34.5 (8.1) Saudi Arabia 149.9 (9.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 08:00 Japan Supermarket Sales YoY Period Survey Prior Aug -- 0.20% 09:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY 09:00 Japan Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Aug F -- (8.40%) Aug -- (0.10%) 09:00 Japan 11:30 UK Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY Aug -- 0.60% Public Finances (PSNCR) Aug -- 11:30 (2.1b) UK Central Government NCR Aug -- 3.6b 11:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Aug 10.3b (1.5b) 11:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 15:30 Canada Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Aug 10.2b (1.0b) Sep-16th -- 4.20% Jul 0.30% 0.70% Sep-19th -- 3.90% Sep-19th -- 0.00% 0.50% 0.50% 0.25% 0.25% 21:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Sep-21st 21:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) Sep-21st Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 21 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 7.8 0.0 8.1 1.7 5.6 4.9 2.9 0.0 4.2 6.2 1.9 5.5 3.4 5.6 4.3 4.8 5.0 0.0 8.9 4.2 4.8 5.1 6.4 2.8 4.7 6.1 4.0 3.5 2.5 7.0 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.9 2.2 3.0 7.1 2.6 6.1 2.8 2.0 7.6 3.9 3.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 5.3 5.6 5.0 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.5 1.1 2.3 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.8 4.4 0.8 2.0 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 3.3 2.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.8 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.5 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 46.1 11.5 12.3 11.0 29.7 11.4 22.0 25.7 13.1 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.4 6.6 12.8 14.9 18.4 16.1 7.9 18.8 15.2 21.9 11.3 10.8 15.7 20.5 11.6 20.1 4.5 12.4 13.0 17.4 27.6 13.3 15.0 22.6 12.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.7 15.8 13.3 10.4 12.2 13.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 42.0 38.3 22.3 36.9 61.8 18.0 35.7 17.1 11.0 102.5 64.2 156.0 11.0 90.0 210.0 31.5 150.6 11.1 11.2 64.2 83.3 15.0 35.3 106.0 82.2 17.6 215.2 50.0 43.0 85.9 22.5 20.3 89.0 46.0 56.0 36.2 18.0 13.7 19.7 100.3 11.1 53.5 23.8 90.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4