GCC Daily Market Update - 28 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 28 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,159.9 18,228.3 4,866.7 6,807.7 10,361.5 4,398.7 77,160.7 16,683.9 23,571.9 2,998.2 28,223.7 13.8 133.5 49.5 (10.4) (32.2) (9.2) 435.0 139.4 254.0 17.7 (70.6) 0.6 0.7 1.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.6 (0.3) (0.5) (0.9) 2.0 0.4 (2.2) (0.9) 1.6 (1.2) 2.6 (2.8) (0.8) 5.7 4.6 6.0 9.1 (3.6) (5.1) 7.6 (12.3) 7.6 (15.3) 8.1 10,472.9 5,730.7 4,471.7 3,466.6 5,412.4 5,748.6 1,139.5 1,528.3 2,973.6 (36.9) (225.9) (20.5) (26.4) 4.5 (18.8) (0.2) 3.2 15.6 (0.4) (3.8) (0.5) (0.8) 0.1 (0.3) (0.0) 0.2 0.5 (4.7) (5.7) 0.0 (1.1) (0.1) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) 0.6 0.4 (17.1) 3.8 10.0 (3.6) 6.3 (6.3) 5.3 6.1 46.0 44.7 3.0 1,326.0 216.2 (1.4) (1.3) (0.0) (13.8) (2.9) (2.9) (2.7) (0.0) (1.0) (1.3) (1.8) (0.0) 3.5 1.4 4.4 23.9 20.6 27.9 25.1 1.2 Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets ended on a mixed note on Tuesday. US Indices rose as investors welcomed an apparent win for Hillary Clinton in their first presidential debate however losses in oil markets limited Wall Street's advance. European stocks fell, dragged down by Energy and Banking shares. Energy shares fell in response to drop in oil prices. Banking share were hit by weak sentiments following a 2.4% drop in Commerzbank, after reports emerged of bank preparing to cut about 9,000 jobs as well as its dividend as part of restructuring efforts. Weakness in Deutsche bank further added to the pessimism. In Asia, Japan’s index gained 0.8%, supported by weaker yen during the Japanese session. GCC Most of the GCC markets fell on Tuesday, tracking a drop in oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s Index plunged 3.8% after the government announced further austerity measures relating to salaries and bonuses for ministers and public sector workers. The Retail sector was hard hit as these measures reflected outlook for Saudi government spending, which is a key driver of consumption. Abu Dhabi’s Index fell 0.5% weighed down by blue chip stocks. Dubai’s Index fell 0.8% with Drake & Scull dropping 1.8% as the company has a substantial exposure to Saudi business. Kuwait’s index bucked the broader trend and rose 0.1% lifted by banking shares after the central bank governor said the banking system was stable, with nonperforming loans dropping substantially. Qatar QE Index fell 0.4% amid sell-off by domestic institutions as oil markets retreated on fading hopes of production cuts at the Algiers meeting. Most of the sectors fell with major losers being Real estate (-0.6%), Telecom (0.5%) and Transport (-0.5%) sector. High volumes were witnessed in Telecom, Industrials and Banking stocks which together accounted for about 83% of the total traded. Out of 44 stocks listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 16 gained, 22 declined and 02 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.9 1.6 3.9 75.6 DSM 20 14.6 1.6 3.9 48.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 13.5 1.3 4.1 1,063.9 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.4 5.5 35.7 UAE (DFM) 12.4 1.3 4.0 73.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.7 1.0 4.4 25.1 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.0 49.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 12.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Warehousing Co. Qatari Investors Group Mazaya Qatar Real Est. United Development Al Khaleej Takaful Top Losers Mannai Corporation Doha Bank Qsc Qatar Industrial Al Khalij Com. Bank Ezdan Holding Group Close Price 55.8 51.6 14.0 20.0 23.7 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.3 3.2 1.4 1.3 1.1 (1.9) 36.9 3.5 (3.6) (22.5) (8.8) 114.6 14.9 17.3 1,588.4 22.6 (5.8) 154.2 13.5 (13.4) 28.3 15.2 (32.4) 12.8 21.7 82.0 36.9 42.0 17.1 17.3 (2.3) (0.5) (0.5) (0.2) (0.2) (2.7) (1.3) (1.2) (1.0) (1.0) (14.0) (17.1) 5.4 (4.7) 8.9 (16.7) (26.9) (1.3) (19.6) (7.2) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 0.7 7.9 54.6 8.2 8.0 11.0 8.0 9.6 286.3 26.2 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 30.0 10,472.9 20.0 10.0 0.0 3/Jul 17/Jul 31/Jul 14/Aug Index Volume (mn) 28/Aug 11/Sep 25/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,880.1 6,310.0 3,163.8 4,621.7 2,461.1 1,204.9 2,482.0 1D Change (%) (0.4) (0.2) (0.1) 0.1 (0.6) (0.5) 0.5 Buy (%) 20.9 21.3 42.2 8.2 49.6 57.8 Sell (%) 25.5 39.7 65.2 7.5 27.3 34.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 28 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS    The World Trade Organization cut its forecast for global trade growth to 1.7% for 2016 from a previous estimate of 2.8% in April-16, reflecting a slowdown in China and falling levels of imports into the US. The data underlined concerns that, governments are increasingly seeking to protect their own industries and promote domestic producers at the expense of foreign competitors. (Source: Reuters) Federal Reserve can raise interest rates without threatening the US economic recovery, Federal Reserve policymaker, John Williams said. He further added that the central bank risks doing more harm than good by continued inaction. (Source: Reuters) S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the national home price index for US rose by 5.1% YoY in July-16 compared to 5% YoY increase in June16, as strong demand for homes and a shortage of inventory drove the prices. (Source: WSJ)  Eurozone M3 money supply rose to 5.1% YoY in August-16, while M1 also grew to 8.9% YoY for the period. (Source: Economic Calendar)  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that the government will continue to work closely with the Bank of Japan, using all policy tools, to defeat deflation and boost growth, as it aims to achieve the 2% inflation target quickly. (Source: Reuters)  China needs to revamp its financial regime to reduce possible spillovers onto the rest of the world, according to a report by IMF. The organization further added that, China should aim for a more freefloating exchange rate, a transparent mechanism for signaling policy changes and a system to counter vulnerability. (Source: South China Morning  Gross premiums in Saudi Arabia amounted to SAR 36.3bn (USD 9.7bn) in the 12 months ending 30th June-16. The CAGR of gross premiums was above 15% over 2011-2015, according to S&P. The agency however added that only 20 companies appear to be achieving a reasonably satisfactory performance. (Source: English Mubasher)  The value of foreign direct investment in Kuwait amounts to USD 2.2bn, DG of Kuwait Direct Investment Promotion Authority said. Several foreign companies showed their interest in entering the Kuwaiti market in the coming period. (Source: English Mubasher)  Kuwait real estate sales declined by 26% YoY to KWD 1.6bn in the first eight months of 2016, according to a report by the National Bank of Kuwait. The residential sector recorded its highest activity since May16, rising by 12% MoM with 220 transactions in August-16. The value of sales also increased by 14% MoM to KWD 71.8mn during the month. (Source: English Mubasher)  Boursa Kuwait has obtained a preliminary approval from the Capital Markets Authority in Kuwait for dividing Kuwait Stock Exchange into three submarkets; first, main, and auction, CEO of Boursa Kuwait Securities Company said. (Source: English Mubasher)  Creating provisions for Kuwaiti banks is expected to slow down in the coming quarters, the CEO of Boubyan Bank said. Banks have created enough provisions in the past period and are not in need for increasing them in the current time. (Source: English Mubasher) QATAR NEWS  Qatar is set to remain the fastest growing country in the GCC region at 3.5% this year and 3.7% in 2017, according to a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. The country’s hydrocarbon production will benefit from increased gas pipeline output from the Barzan gas field and the new Ras Laffan II refinery in 2017. (Source: Gulf Times) Post) GCC NEWS  The UAE’s aggregate M2 money supply, decreased by 0.6% MoM to AED1183.9bn at the end of August-16. The decrease can be mainly attributed to an AED10.8 bn fall in Quasi-Monetary Deposits. The Money Supply aggregate M1, increased by 0.7% MoM to AED473.3 bn at the end of August-16. (Source: Zawya)  Producer price index (PPI) registering a decline of 1.5% MoM in July16 due to lower prices for hydrocarbons, refined petroleum products, basic chemicals, cement and electricity, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics data. The PPI for the industrial sector plummeted 26% YoY in July-16. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE’s gross bank assets increased by 0.1% MoM to AED2518.6 bn at the end of August-16. Gross credit during the period increased by 0.5% MoM to AED1548.5 billion. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar's customer deposits as on August -16 stood at QAR 661.6 bn, while total assets under management by all banks with branches in Qatar stood at QAR 608.8 bn during the period. (Source: QCB)  CNY adoption in the UAE is witnessing a 210.8% growth in payments value of the currency since August-14. This is majorly due to a low base. More than 80% of the direct payments made between the UAE and mainland China/Hong Kong in August-16 were in Chinese currency. (Source: CPI Financial)  Visitors who have a layover in Qatar for 5 hours or more can now get a free 4-day transit visa, according to the Ministry of Interior, Qatar Tourism Authority and Qatar Airways. This new scheme is open to all passengers, regardless of nationality. (Source: Doha News)  Trade ties between the UAE and China have received fresh momentum thanks to visa waiver agreement and direct Yuan trading, Acting Executive Director of the International Economic Relations Sector at Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development said. (Source: Xinhua)  The Ministry of Economy and Commerce, in collaboration with the International Trade Training Institute of the WTO, has organized a workshop on The Dispute Settlement Mechanism of the WTO from 27th to 29th September-16. (Source: Gulf Times)  CI Ratings has raised the financial strength rating of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank to ‘A’ from ‘A-’. A strong capital adequacy ratio), good asset quality, improving liquidity, sound profitability and a solid customer franchise underpin the FSR. The bank’s long- and short-term foreign currency ratings are affirmed at ‘A+’ and ‘A1’, respectively, and the support rating is ‘1’. (Source: CPI Financial)  Qatar’s expats reported the highest levels of disposable income (73%) in HSBC expat survey ‘Expat Explorer’. The region overall remains an excellent destination for expats to improve their earnings, increase their savings and enjoy a greater disposable income. (Source: The Peninsula)  With more than USD 40bn worth of investments in the next 15 years, Qatar’s hospitality industry is poised to experience strong growth even as construction of new hotels and additional rooms are in the pipeline, IFP Qatar General Manager said. (Source: Gulf Times)  United Development Company has won two prestigious awards as best commercial high-rise development for its Abraj Quartier office towers, and highly commended mixed-use development for The Pearl, at the Arabian Property Awards 2016 held recently in Dubai. (Source: The   Saudi Aramco will be looking to list 5% of stake in 2018 on number of foreign markets including New York, London and Hong Kong, the CEO of the company said. A 5% stake of the company is worth about USD 2.5tn. (Source: International Business Times) Iran rejected an offer from Saudi Arabia to limit its oil output in exchange for the latter cutting supply, dashing market hopes the two major OPEC producers would find a compromise this week to help ease a global glut of crude. (Source: Reuters) Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 28 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1245 USD/QAR 3.6416 100.4300 EUR/QAR 4.0950 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3053 JPY/QAR 0.0363 USD/CHF 0.9708 GBP/QAR 4.7534 USD/CAD 1.3196 CHF/QAR 3.7511 AUD/USD 0.7667 CAD/QAR 2.7596 NZD/USD 0.7301 AUD/QAR 2.7920 USD/INR 65.9875 INR/QAR 0.0552 USD/TRY 2.9748 TRY/QAR 1.2241 USD/ZAR 13.4523 ZAR/QAR 0.2707 USD/BRL 3.2343 BRL/QAR 1.1259 FX Commentary The USD gained against most major currencies with the dollar index up 0.2%. The currency benefitted from the general perception, that the first US presidential debate tipped the scales in favor of Secretary Hilary Clinton. The perception also benefitted CAD, as US remains Canada’s largest market and Trump’s victory could raise skepticism over NAFTA’s future. Gains in CAD were however capped following a dovish speech by Bank of Canada Governor. EUR fell as concerns over capital adequacy resurfaced following issues surrounding Deutsche Bank. JPY gained marginally, despite the Bank of Japan Governor commenting that the central bank would do everything necessary to get inflation back on the rise, including cutting interest rates further into negative territory. The currency got further support from upbeat release of Japan’s final leading economic index. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.45 0.52 0.85 1.56 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.06) 1.00 1.12 1.36 1.56 1.92 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.07 2.35 2.65 EIBOR 0.33 0.42 0.74 1.27 1.79 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 1.00 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 3.85% 4.0% 1.90% 2.0% 2.23% 2.23% 1.25% 1.52% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.00% 2.27% 0.0% 0.54% 0.99% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.1 5.5 Turkey 263.5 (7.0) UK 32.8 (4.6) Brazil 273.5 (113.0) Germany 18.8 (1.1) Egypt 477.6 (21.5) France 29.6 (4.4) Abu Dhabi 72.1 (22.9) 145.8 22.1 Bahrain 382.4 12.3 2.50% 2.0% 2.00% 1.69% 1.39% 1.01% 1.0% 0.0% 0.75% 2 Yrs 1.41% 1.27% 1.16% 1.74% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,017.3 (130.7) Dubai 158.5 (55.7) Russia 217.4 (82.9) Qatar 92.0 (3.0) Japan 34.5 (12.5) Saudi Arabia 160.0 1.8 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 08:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Sep 46.9 46.3 09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Oct 10.2 10.2 09:45 France Consumer Confidence Sep 97 97 11:00 Italy Consumer Confidence Index Sep 109 109.2 11:00 Italy Manufacturing Confidence Sep 100.9 101.1 11:00 Italy Economic Sentiment Sep -- 99.4 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep-23rd -- (7.30%) 15:30 US Durable Goods Orders Aug P (1.50%) 4.40% 15:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Aug P (0.50%) 1.30% 15:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug P (0.10%) 1.50% 15:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Aug P 0.10% (0.50%) 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD Sep-26th -- 4.00% Sep-26th -- 0.10% Aug (1.70%) (0.20%) 16:00 Russia CPI WoW 02:50 Japan Retail Trade YoY 02:50 Japan Retail Sales MoM Aug (0.60%) 1.50% 02:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Sep-23rd -- ¥1065.2b 02:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Sep-23rd -- (¥479.0b) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 28 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.8 0.0 8.1 1.7 5.9 4.9 3.1 0.0 4.1 6.2 1.9 5.6 3.4 5.6 4.3 5.0 5.0 0.0 8.8 4.2 4.9 5.1 6.4 2.9 4.8 6.1 4.1 3.5 2.5 7.1 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.9 2.2 3.0 7.4 2.6 6.4 2.9 2.0 7.6 4.0 3.1 0.0 2.4 2.3 5.3 5.8 5.1 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.6 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.2 1.4 2.1 1.2 0.8 4.4 0.8 2.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.6 3.3 2.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.7 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.9 14.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.5 12.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 45.5 11.7 12.4 10.9 29.2 11.4 22.0 25.6 12.5 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 14.3 6.6 12.8 14.7 18.0 15.9 7.9 18.3 15.1 21.6 11.1 11.0 15.5 20.9 11.6 19.9 4.4 12.0 12.9 16.6 26.7 13.4 15.1 21.8 12.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.2 15.8 13.1 10.0 11.9 13.7 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 40.1 38.5 22.9 37.2 63.2 17.1 35.5 16.0 10.9 105.0 64.4 155.1 10.8 90.1 209.0 30.1 150.8 10.6 11.3 63.7 82.5 14.8 34.5 104.7 82.5 17.1 213.6 49.3 42.0 87.5 22.9 20.3 88.0 44.8 54.0 34.4 17.4 13.9 19.8 98.1 10.8 53.6 23.5 86.6 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4