GCC Daily Market Update - 29 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 29 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,171.4 18,339.2 4,875.3 6,849.4 10,438.3 4,432.5 77,677.8 16,465.4 23,619.7 2,987.9 28,292.8 11.4 110.9 8.6 41.7 76.9 33.8 517.1 (218.5) 47.8 (10.3) 69.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 (1.3) 0.2 (0.3) 0.2 0.0 (0.3) 2.2 1.0 (1.5) (0.1) 2.3 (2.5) 2.8 (3.2) (0.6) 6.2 5.2 6.1 9.7 (2.8) (4.4) 8.3 (13.5) 7.8 (15.6) 8.3 10,465.4 5,534.4 4,448.7 3,452.6 5,402.4 5,726.2 1,141.9 1,523.1 2,985.5 (7.5) (196.3) (23.0) (14.0) (10.0) (22.5) 2.4 (5.1) 11.8 (0.1) (3.4) (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) (0.4) 0.2 (0.3) 0.4 (4.8) (9.0) (0.5) (1.5) (0.3) (0.2) (0.0) (0.6) 1.0 0.3 (19.9) 3.3 9.6 (3.8) 5.9 (6.1) 4.9 6.8 48.7 47.1 3.0 1,319.4 218.0 2.7 2.4 (0.0) (6.6) 1.8 5.9 5.3 (1.5) (0.5) 0.8 3.4 5.4 4.5 0.9 6.5 30.5 27.2 29.1 24.4 3.2 Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets ended on a mixed note on Wednesday. US Indices rose, supported by gains in Energy Shares, which tracked a rebound in oil prices. Oil rallied after OPEC members reached an agreement on a productionlimiting deal. The broader indices further benefitted from data showing consumer confidence at a nine-year high. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7% as the region’s banking sector showed signs of a recovery from a rough start to the week. Deutsche Bank’s shares gained 2% in Europe after it said it sold its UK based Abbey life insurance unit, boosting its capital cushion slightly. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.3%, with banking and export sectors leading losses. Bank shares fell due to concerns over consecutive drops of 10-year Japanese government bond yields while exporters lost on yen’s strength. GCC Most of the Gulf markets fell on Wednesday amid weak oil prices after Iran rejected an offer from Saudi Arabia to limit its oil output in exchange for Riyadh cutting supply. Saudi Arabia’s Index plunged 3.4% dragged down by petrochemical sector with index major SABIC sliding 4%. Insurance sector was also among major drags on the bourse as the counter is favored by local retail investors, who are expected to be hit by the new austerity measures announced. Dubai’s Index edged down 0.4% as Emaar properties lost 1%, while Abu Dhabi’s Index fell 0.5% with Aldar Properties falling 1.5%. Qatar QE index demonstrated resilience amidst a region wide fall, closing marginally lower. The index got support from index major Industries Qatar, which gained 1.2%, despite fall in oil prices. Local and foreign individuals turned net sellers on the bourse, while buying support from foreign institutions weakened. Sell-off was majorly observed in the Real estate (0.8%), Consumer goods (-0.5) and Insurance (-0.5) counters. In terms of volume, Telecom and Banking stocks accounted for more than 66% of the total traded. Out of the 44 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 21 declined, 14 advanced and 5 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.8 1.6 3.9 42.2 DSM 20 14.6 1.6 3.9 35.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 13.1 1.3 4.3 1,178.7 UAE (ADX) 11.8 1.4 5.5 24.5 UAE (DFM) 12.4 1.3 4.0 57.1 Kuwait (KSE) 18.6 1.0 4.4 26.7 Oman (MSM) 10.7 1.1 5.0 6.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 0.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Dlala Holding Mannai Corporation Qatar Elect & Water Co Industries Qatar Qatar Navigation Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Commercial Bank Qsc Qatari Investors Group United Development Zad Holding Co Close Price 23.8 83.9 216.0 107.4 87.1 0.6 1.9 3.1 1.3 0.8 2.8 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 28.7 (12.0) (0.2) (3.3) (8.3) 19.1 (15.2) 4.3 (10.9) (11.1) 115.1 NA 0.1 8.0 22.2 15.3 195.1 16.3 5.2 9.9 22.9 38.0 50.6 19.8 81.5 (0.8) (1.1) (1.0) (0.3) (1.0) (3.4) (2.7) (1.9) (1.3) (1.2) (25.1) (17.3) 34.2 (4.8) (3.9) (31.9) (31.4) 15.5 (15.1) (10.4) 3.8 56.0 118.5 31.1 2.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 21.0 18.2 22.1 15.0 10.7 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 30.0 10,465.4 20.0 10.0 0.0 3/Jul 17/Jul 31/Jul 14/Aug Index Volume (mn) 28/Aug 11/Sep 25/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,875.4 6,279.4 3,184.5 4,598.9 2,442.6 1,203.8 2,490.7 1D Change (%) (0.2) (0.5) 0.7 (0.5) (0.8) (0.1) 0.4 Buy (%) 22.2 29.3 51.5 8.8 39.7 48.5 Sell (%) 32.1 27.5 59.6 9.2 31.2 40.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 29 , 2016 Paribas, Credit Suisse, JP Morgan, Standard Chartered Bank to arrange a series of investor meetings. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  Global oil output will exceed demand until late 2017, as no major intervention is in sight, Executive Director of International Energy Agency said. The agency extended its bearish view, stating that oil supply will outpace demand at least through H1-17. (Source: Bloomberg)  The Central Bank of Bahrain’s monthly issue of Government Treasury Bills (issue date of 2nd October-16), amounting to BHD 35mn, with the weighted average interest rate of 2.21% and maturity of 182 days, has been oversubscribed by 123%. (Source: CBB)  OPEC agreed on modest oil output cuts in the first such deal since 2008, with the group's leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on Iran amid mounting pressure from low oil prices. OPEC would reduce output to a range of 32.5 to 33.0 million barrels per day. The move would re-establish OPEC production ceilings abandoned in 2015.  Bahrain will continue to develop its oil and gas reserves to increase production, despite the dip in oil prices, Oil Minister said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain’s Diyar Al Muharraq has signed a Murabaha contract worth USD 366mn with a group of local banks in order to provide financial liquidity to develop the ‘Deerat Al Oyoun’ project. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Reuters)  US factories orders were down 0.6% YoY in 8 months through August16, as much of the weakness was tied to woes in the energy industry, with the oil and coal industries pulling back investment. (Source: WSJ)  Kuwait's government cannot issue a sovereign bond without the creation of a secondary debt market, the Chairman of Commercial Bank of Kuwait said. (Source: Reuters)  Federal Reserve Chairman, Janet Yellen told lawmakers that the US will continue to add jobs at a solid rate, though the recent average pace is probably higher than what’s sustainable over the long term and would eventually cause the economy to overheat. (Source: Bloomberg)  Kuwait's stock exchange will introduce a limit of 20% for the maximum daily rise or fall of individual stocks by November-16, CEO of Boursa Kuwait said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bank of England Deputy Governor played down the likelihood of a further cut in interest rates in 2016, as the British central bank grapples with how aggressively to respond to a slowdown following June-16 Brexit vote. However, further monetary stimulus will be required at some point to deal with slowdown in economic activity in future. (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait’s Planning and International Cooperation Ministry signed a USD 20mn grant agreement with the Kuwaiti Fund for Arab Economic Development to support Syrian refugees and host communities in Jordan. (Source: Zawya)  Kuwait’s Equate Petrochemical Co. has hired banks for a potential bond issue of as much as USD 3bn. The JV between Dow Chemical Co. and Kuwait’s Petrochemical Industries Co. mandated lenders including HSBC Holdings Plc, NBK Capital, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. to arrange the sale of dollar-denominated securities. (Source:  Japan's retail sales fell 2.1% YoY and 1.1% MoM in August-16, which underscores the relative fragility in Japan's economy, with slow wage growth and gloomy prospects of recovery weighing on household spending. Falling sales of clothes and home appliances contributed to the annual decline. (Source: Reuters)   QATAR NEWS  Hotels occupancy in the Middle East reported 2.35% increase in August-16 over the previous year. The occupancy rate now stands at 65.2%, said a report by STR. However, average daily rate was down 5.4% to USD 141.9, and revenue per available room fell 3.3% to USD 92.5. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar scored 5.23 points has been ranked 18th out of 138 countries as globally competitive by World Economic Forum in 2016-17 mainly on account of robust competitiveness in its macroeconomic framework. Qatar was efficient in many areas as macroeconomic environment, financial market development, innovation, health and primary education, and higher education and training. (Source: Gulf Times)  Abu Dhabi International Airport reported a 2.3% YoY increase in passengers during August-16. Total passengers stood at 2.3mn during the month. During 8 months to August-16, passenger traffic grew by 6.2% YoY to 16.4mn passengers. (Source: Arabian Business) Fuel prices in Qatar will dip slightly in the month of October-16, according to the Ministry of Energy and Industry. Super 95-Octane gasoline will cost QAR 1.35/liter, while Premium 91-Octane gas will be QAR 1.25/liter. (Source: Doha News)  US government has approved USD 4bn in sales of 36 Boeing F-15 fighter jets to Qatar. The sales had been pending for more than two years, amid concerns raised by Israel that arms sold to Gulf Arab states could be used against it. (Source: Asia Times)  British Airways and its largest shareholder Qatar Airways agreed to set up a joint business that will see them code-share on flights linking dozens of destinations while operating a joint timetable and sharing revenue and costs on services between London and Doha. (Source: The GCC NEWS  Bloomberg) Abu Dhabi Ports has awarded China's Cosco Shipping a 35-year concession worth USD 738mn to build and operate a new container terminal at Khalifa Port. The terminal is expected to be operational in Q1-18. It will have a capacity of 2.4mn twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs), with an option to increase that to 3.5mn TEUs. (Source: Arabian Business)   Roads and Transport Authority is set to start the implementation of Phase II of the dedicated lane for its buses and taxis project, covering Al Mamzar and Al Ghubaiba roads in Dubai, UAE. (Source: Trade Arabia) Peninsula)  The Hamriyah Free Zone Authority and Sharjah Airport International Free Zone inaugurated a new USD 100mn petroleum storage terminal of Sharafco Group at Hamriyah Free Zone’s first phase. (Source: Trade (Source: The Peninsula) Arabia)  Real estate investment trust, Emirates REIT had acquired the leasehold on land in Dubai Investments Park and intends to fund the development of a new school at a total investment cost of AED 88mn (USD 23.9mn). The school will be the third in company’s portfolio. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain is planning a dual-tranche, benchmark sized US dollar denominated bond issue. The sovereign has mandated Bank ABC, BNP Fifty One East department store, has been rewarded 2016’s Retailer of the Year at the Arabian Business Achievement Awards Qatar. Also the Ezdan Holding Group, won the ‘International Achievement Award 2016’ and Msheireb Properties was named “Developer of the Year”.  QNB is a major participant at the The Sibos 2016 Conference, which concludes in Geneva. The region’s top financial institution is also a key exhibitor at the global financial conference under the theme “Transforming the Landscape.’’ (Source: The Peninsula)  Regency Travel & Tours added another branch office to its existing retail network and expands its countrywide presence. The new branch is located in Umm Salal area, Doha. (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 29 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1247 USD/QAR 3.6414 100.6900 EUR/QAR 4.0955 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3049 JPY/QAR 0.0362 USD/CHF 0.9710 GBP/QAR 4.7517 USD/CAD 1.3080 CHF/QAR 3.7502 AUD/USD 0.7692 CAD/QAR 2.7839 NZD/USD 0.7284 AUD/QAR 2.8010 USD/INR 65.9650 INR/QAR 0.0552 USD/TRY 2.9798 TRY/QAR 1.2220 USD/ZAR 13.6187 ZAR/QAR 0.2674 USD/BRL 3.2167 BRL/QAR 1.1320 FX Commentary The dollar closed roughly flat against its peer currencies on Wednesday on lack of direction of interest rate hike in December-16, after US factories orders remained flat in 8 months to August. Currencies of countries that rely heavily on energy or raw material exports, such as CAD and AUD gained against the greenback after OPEC agreed to limit crude output in the first such deal since 2008. EUR closed largely unchanged recovering from Tuesday's low. The currency had been hit the previous day on uncertainty about the state of European banks. GBP gained against the greenback after Bank of England’s deputy governor played down the likelihood of a further cut in interest rates in 2016. The currency further benefitted from Governor’s assurances on long term health of UK. JPY fell 0.2% against the US counterpart as demand for the safe-haven waned. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.45 0.53 0.85 1.55 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.06) 1.02 1.13 1.37 1.57 1.93 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.07 2.35 2.65 EIBOR 0.34 0.45 0.74 1.27 1.79 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 1.00 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.13 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 3.85% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.90% 2.23% 2.23% 1.01% 1.27% 1.54% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.95% 2.30% 0.55% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.8 5.2 Turkey 271.2 2.8 UK 32.5 (5.3) Brazil 267.9 (104.3) Germany 17.9 (1.7) Egypt 477.6 (21.5) France 28.2 (6.1) Abu Dhabi 75.8 (19.3) 146.7 14.8 Bahrain 380.7 16.3 2.52% 2.0% 2.00% 1.70% 1.39% 1.00% 1.0% 1.17% 0.0% 1.44% 1.29% 1.75% Italy 0.75% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,017.9 (184.0) Dubai 167.1 (44.0) Russia 218.7 (80.7) Qatar 93.2 (5.2) Japan 36.0 (10.7) Saudi Arabia 165.6 7.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 10:55 Germany Unemployment Change (000's) Sep (5k) Prior (7k) 11:30 UK Mortgage Approvals Aug 60.2k 60.9k 12:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep F (8.2) (8.2) 15:00 Germany CPI MoM Sep P 0.00% 0.00% 15:00 Germany CPI YoY Sep P 0.60% 0.40% 15:00 Germany CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep P 0.50% 0.30% 15:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug P 0.00% 0.00% 15:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 1.30% 1.10% 15:30 US GDP Price Index 2Q T 2.30% 2.30% 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-24th 260k 252k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Sep-23rd -- 396.6b 17:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Aug 0.00% 1.30% 02:30 Japan Jobless Rate Aug 3.00% 3.00% 02:30 Japan Job-To-Applicant Ratio Aug 1.37 1.37 02:30 Japan Natl CPI YoY Aug (0.50%) (0.40%) 02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Sep (0.40%) (0.40%) 02:50 Japan Industrial Production MoM Aug P 0.50% (0.40%) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 29 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.7 0.0 8.0 1.7 5.8 4.9 3.1 0.0 4.1 6.2 1.9 5.5 3.3 5.5 4.3 5.0 5.1 0.0 8.9 4.3 4.9 5.1 6.5 2.9 4.7 5.9 4.1 3.5 2.5 7.1 3.8 4.4 4.3 4.9 2.2 3.0 7.3 2.6 6.4 2.9 2.0 7.6 4.0 3.0 0.0 2.4 2.3 5.3 5.8 5.1 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.5 1.1 2.3 0.8 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 0.8 4.4 0.8 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 3.3 2.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.8 0.6 2.6 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 11.9 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 45.9 11.7 12.4 11.1 29.3 11.5 22.1 25.4 12.5 10.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.2 6.6 12.8 14.6 18.0 16.1 8.1 18.3 15.2 21.9 11.2 10.9 15.6 21.3 11.6 20.1 4.4 12.2 13.0 16.5 26.8 13.3 15.1 21.9 12.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.4 15.9 13.2 9.9 12.0 13.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 40.1 39.2 23.0 37.4 62.3 17.3 35.8 16.4 11.0 105.0 64.8 157.0 10.9 90.5 207.6 30.1 150.0 10.8 11.3 63.5 82.5 14.8 34.6 106.0 84.3 17.1 215.0 50.0 42.5 86.5 23.4 20.3 88.9 44.8 54.7 34.4 17.5 13.8 19.8 98.8 11.0 54.0 23.7 86.1 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4