GCC Daily Market Update - 5 October

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 5 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,150.5 18,168.5 4,859.5 7,074.3 10,619.6 4,503.1 77,057.8 16,735.7 23,689.4 3,004.7 28,334.6 (10.7) (85.4) (7.2) 90.8 108.6 49.5 (167.6) 137.0 105.0 NA 91.3 (0.5) (0.5) (0.1) 1.3 1.0 1.1 (0.2) 0.8 0.5 NA 0.3 (0.8) (0.8) (0.3) 2.5 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.7 1.7 (2.6) 1.7 5.2 4.3 5.8 13.3 (1.1) (2.9) 7.4 (12.1) 8.1 (15.1) 8.5 10,388.2 5,525.7 4,409.1 3,405.6 5,352.5 5,613.3 1,143.8 1,499.4 2,971.0 78.3 109.2 12.7 (2.5) (6.1) (61.4) (0.8) (22.2) (7.8) 0.8 2.0 0.3 (0.1) (0.1) (1.1) (0.1) (1.5) (0.3) (0.5) (1.7) (1.5) (2.0) (0.9) (2.0) (0.5) (1.5) (0.3) (0.4) (20.1) 2.4 8.1 (4.7) 3.8 (5.9) 4.0 6.2 50.9 48.7 3.0 1,266.3 216.7 (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 (42.7) (2.5) (0.0) (0.3) 1.4 (3.3) (1.1) 4.6 1.8 2.6 (3.6) (1.7) 37.6 32.6 27.6 19.4 1.8 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks ended on a mixed note on Tuesday. US indices closed lower after a Bloomberg report, quoting anonymous sources from ECB said that the European Central Bank could start winding down its quantitative-easing program ahead of schedule. S&P 500 edged down 0.5% with most major sectors finishing lower. Financials bucked the broader negative trend led by a rebound in Deutsche Bank’s US-listed shares, which surged 2.7%. European indices closed higher, with Stoxx 600 up 0.8% on back of rally in Auto and Energy stocks. Continued rise in Deutsche Bank AG further supported the sentiments. Britain’s benchmark outperformed regional indices, supported by a slide in the GBP. CAC 40 edged up 1.1% with LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton climbing 3.6% after the luxury-goods maker purchased a controlling stake in German luggage maker Rimowa. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei edged 0.8% as solid US manufacturing data helped weaken the yen. GCC GCC markets ended on a mixed note on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s Index edged up 2% as Telecoms stocks surged following the lifting of a trading suspension after the government announced reform measures in the sector. The major gainer among the telecom players was Zain Saudi Arabia which surged to its 10% daily limit. Abu Dhabi’s Index edged up 0.3% as Dana Gas, the most heavily traded stocks surged 3.7%. Dubai’s Index edged down marginally as Du shed 1.3%. Qatar QE index gained 0.8% on Tuesday, in broad based gains. Strong buying activity was witnessed in Real estate (1.2%), Industrials (1%) and Insurance (0.8%) sector. Individual investors and foreign institutions turned net buyers on the bourse. In terms of volumes, Banking and industrials stocks together accounted for more than 55% of the total traded. Out of the 44 stocks traded, 36 exchanged hands of which 28 advanced, 7 declined and 1 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.8 1.6 3.9 39.6 DSM 20 14.5 1.6 3.9 35.7 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 13.1 1.3 4.3 758.1 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.4 5.5 35.9 UAE (DFM) 12.2 1.2 4.0 61.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.0 4.4 31.0 Oman (MSM) 10.5 1.1 5.1 14.1 Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Ind Manufactur Islamic Holding Group Ezdan Holding Group Masraf Al Rayan Aamal Co Top Losers Al Khalij Com Bank Qatar & Oman Invest Gulf Warehousing Co Qatar Navigation Vodafone Qatar Close Price 41.9 61.2 17.1 35.4 15.0 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 3.3 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.4 5.0 (22.2) 7.7 (5.9) 7.2 (2.7) (32.1) (10.9) (18.3) 8.5 1.6 6.0 475.5 485.9 55.9 17.5 10.7 54.6 87.6 10.9 (0.4) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.0) (2.1) (0.9) (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (2.5) (13.1) (4.0) (7.8) (14.3) (17.4) (23.0) (13.2) (11.5) (20.2) 54.6 9.8 14.3 28.8 15.3 14.6 68.4 10.0 384.4 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 11.0 296.5 25.9 12.5 14.7 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 11/Jul 30.0 10,388.2 20.0 10.0 0.0 25/Jul 8/Aug 22/Aug Index Volume (mn) 5/Sep 19/Sep 3/Oct Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,859.5 6,214.6 3,170.1 4,600.6 2,427.0 1,168.7 2,458.4 1D Change (%) 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.7 (0.3) Buy (%) 28.9 12.7 41.6 7.7 50.7 58.4 Sell (%) 24.5 39.5 64.0 7.0 29.0 36.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 5 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) has signed an agreement with ride-hailing service Careem to provide passenger transport services online or via a smart app. The agreement will support the integrated mobility platform project currently undertaken by RTA in Dubai. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia welcomed an agreement reached in Algiers last week on restraining oil output, and hoped for further co-operation between oil producers inside and outside OPEC to help the interests of producers and consumers. (Source: Arabian Business)  The IMF maintained global growth forecast at 3.1% and 3.4% for 2016 and 2017 respectively, stating that a drop in US growth for 2016 would be offset by strength in Japan, Germany, Russia, India and some other emerging markets. (Source: Reuters)  The IMF chief economist said that the US economy is not in danger of overheating and the Federal Reserve should continue its datadependent approach for another interest rate hike. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone producer prices fell 0.2% MoM in August-16. The decline in producer prices was entirely due to energy providers, who cut prices by 0.8%. But excluding the energy sector, producer prices were flat In August-16. On a year on year basis, producer prices fell 2.1% for the month. (Source: WSJ)  The total assets of Islamic banks and windows in Oman amounted to OMR 2.7bn at the end of July-16 which constituted about 8.5% of the total banking system assets. The total deposits held with Islamic banks and windows registered a remarkable increase to OMR 1.9bn in July16 from OMR 1.2bn at the end of July-15. (Source: Zawya)  Australia retail sales rose 2.8% YoY in August-16 to USD 25.1bn compared to 2.7% YoY rise in July-16. The main reason behind the gain in August-16 was a surge in department store sales which jumped 3.5% YoY. (Source: Business Insider)  Oman's first budget airline Salam Air has announced the appointment of François Bouteiller as its CEO. He previously was heading Flynas, the Saudi low-cost carrier. (Source: Arabian Business)   The Reserve bank of India reduced the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility by 25 basis points from 6.50% to 6.25%, as retail inflation dropped to a five-month low of 5.05% in August-16. The main consideration underlying the decision was to achieve CPI inflation at 5% by Q4-17. (Source: Reserve Bank of India) Bahrain has launched a USD 2bn bond offering comprising a long seven-year USD 1bn sukuk and a 12-year USD 1bn conventional bond. The sovereign will price the sukuk at 5.625% and conventional bond at 7%. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait’s exports was down 25.8% QoQ to KWD 3.5bn in Q2-16, according to the country’s Central Administration of Statistics. Volume of trade decreased 17.6% QoQ to KWD 5.9bn in Q2-16 as compared to KWD 7.1bn in the previous quarter. Coverage rate was 150.8% in Q216, while it was 200.6% in Q2-15. (Source: Arab Times Online)  Kuwait government submitted an appeal against the administrative court verdict which ruled that the increase in petrol prices was unlawful due to procedural flaws. (Source: Zawya)  Turkish government has lowered its growth forecast to 3.2% from 4.5% for 2016. The government cited lower tourism numbers, regional conflict, post-coup investor unease and negative global forces as some of the reasons which affected the economy. (Source: Deutsche Welle) GCC NEWS       Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) announced plans to integrate the operations of its subsidiaries Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company (Adma-Opco) and Zakum Development Company (Zadco) into a single new company, with an aim to capitalize on synergies and drive operational efficiency. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar’s Prime Minister promised to back and extend all support to the private sector, whose role has been positive in the country’s economy. The government will also help in facilitating the process of obtaining working visas to allow the private sector to obtain its needs from the job market. (Source: Gulf Times)  The total number of transactions by the Ministry of Interior (which include accomplished residence permits, residence permit renewals residency cancellation, sponsorship transfers etc) increased by 27.3% YoY to 41,293,748 in H1-16. While, transactions completed through the General Directorate of Nationality, Borders and Expats Affairs rose by 9.6% YoY to 20,982,263 in H1-16. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Stock Exchange announced trading suspension on Al Meera Consumer Goods Company shares on 5th October-16 due to its EGM being held. (Source: QSE)  Commercial Bank of Qatar has launched the Visa Signature credit card, which is tailored specifically for SMEs. The card helps Enterprise Banking customers to differentiate between business expenses and personal expenses. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Re announced that the Monetary Authority of Singapore has granted the company a license to operate a branch office in Singapore. The license became effective as of 3rd October-16. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar's Ahli Bank had secured a three-year, USD 195mn club loan from eight banks. The mandated lead arrangers and bookrunners were Arab Banking Corp, Barclays Bank, Commerzbank, First Gulf Bank, HSBC Bank Middle East, Mizuho Bank and Standard Chartered Bank. (Source: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank has teamed with German new entrant Fidor Bank for creating the first community based digital bank in the GCC region. The proposition will offer ADIB users a seamless, easy and intuitive digital banking experience (Source: IBS Intelligence) Dubai based Construction giant Arabtec has won a contract to build a USD 92.5mn five-star hotel in Dubai Media City. The company provided no further details on who awarded the contract, when it was awarded, or a timeline for the development. (Source: Gulf Times) Dubai has issued amendments on regulations governing the tram system in the emirate, aimed at improving safety standards. (Source: Arabian Business)  QATAR NEWS The UAE leads the GCC in the Global Islamic Economy Indicator (GIEI), a numeric measure representing the overall health and growth of the Islamic economy across 73 countries. The UAE was ranked in number one position in Halal Food, Halal Travel, Modest Fashion, Halal Media and Recreation and Halal Pharmaceuticals. (Source: Gulf News) Dubai-based contractor Drake & Scull has said that it expects to reach a mutual agreement to settle a SAR 200mn (USD 53.3mn) dispute with Lamar Investment and Real Estate over the Lamar Towers project in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Drake & Scull had failed to complete the commercial and residential towers which were scheduled to be handed over by the end of 2015. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai’s JW Marriott Marquis was voted Middle East’s and Dubai’s Leading Conference Hotel 2016 this year’s World Travel Awards Middle East. (Source: Trade Arabia) Reuters)  Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) has announced the deployment of the award winning Temenos Islamic banking solution IslamicSuite. QIB seamlessly migrated from a number of fragmented systems to a single fully-integrated Temenos platform. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 5 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1234 USD/QAR 3.6416 102.9000 EUR/QAR 4.0910 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2758 JPY/QAR 0.0354 USD/CHF 0.9790 GBP/QAR 4.6460 USD/CAD 1.3192 CHF/QAR 3.7197 AUD/USD 0.7620 CAD/QAR 2.7605 NZD/USD 0.7210 AUD/QAR 2.7749 USD/INR 65.9612 INR/QAR 0.0552 USD/TRY 3.0589 TRY/QAR 1.1905 USD/ZAR 13.8291 ZAR/QAR 0.2633 USD/BRL 3.2580 BRL/QAR 1.1177 FX Commentary US Dollar index, which measures greenback against four other major currencies, edged up 0.5% on Tuesday, on upbeat US manufacturing data which increased expectations of US interest rate hike in December-16. CAD weakened against the greenback after weak auto sales data which was 0.5% down in September, however the oil production freeze deal announced last week still continued to support oil prices and hence this commodity-linked currency. GBP depreciated against USD as concerns over British government’s stance indicate ‘hard Brexit’, in which Britain splits entirely from the single market in favor of retaining control over immigration. EUR fell against USD but pared earlier losses, following a report that said the ECB might scale back its bond purchases before the end of its QE program. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.46 0.53 0.86 1.56 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.06) 0.99 1.11 1.33 1.57 1.94 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.08 2.36 2.64 EIBOR 0.35 0.45 0.74 1.22 1.80 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 1.00 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.13 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 3.91% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.91% 2.24% 2.24% 1.08% 1.35% 1.63% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.94% 2.39% 0.62% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.1 5.8 Turkey 253.1 (9.7) UK 33.7 (5.2) Brazil 275.3 (110.5) Germany 20.4 1.9 Egypt 479.7 (15.8) France 29.6 (3.4) Abu Dhabi 73.9 (24.1) 153.4 22.9 Bahrain 380.0 2.8 2.56% 2.0% 1.05% 1.0% 0.0% 1.70% 1.38% 1.36% 1.23% 2.02% 1.53% 1.87% Italy 0.73% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,017.4 (183.8) Dubai 162.5 (62.5) Russia 223.7 (73.1) Qatar 95.0 (1.8) Japan 34.7 (11.8) Saudi Arabia 167.2 12.0 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:50 France Markit France Services PMI Sep F 54.1 54.1 10:50 France Markit France Composite PMI Sep F 53.3 53.3 10:55 Germany Markit Germany Services PMI Sep F 50.6 50.6 10:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Sep F 52.7 52.7 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Services PMI Sep F 52.1 52.1 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Sep F 52.6 52.6 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Sep 52.2 52.9 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Sep 52.3 53.6 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep-30th -- (0.70%) 15:15 US ADP Employment Change Sep 165k 177k 15:30 US Trade Balance Aug ($39.2b) ($39.5b) 16:45 US Markit US Services PMI Sep F 51.9 51.9 16:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Sep F -- 52 17:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep 53 51.4 17:00 US Factory Orders Aug (0.20%) 1.90% 17:00 US Durable Goods Orders Aug F 0.00% 0.00% 17:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Aug F -- (0.40%) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 5 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 29th September, 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.8 0.0 8.1 1.7 5.8 4.9 3.0 0.0 4.1 6.2 1.9 5.5 3.4 5.6 4.4 5.0 5.1 0.0 9.0 4.2 5.2 5.2 6.4 2.9 4.6 6.1 4.1 3.5 2.5 7.1 3.8 4.4 4.2 4.8 2.2 3.0 7.5 2.6 6.5 3.0 2.0 7.4 4.1 3.1 1.9 2.9 2.2 5.3 5.6 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.5 1.1 2.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 0.8 4.4 0.7 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 3.3 2.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.8 0.6 2.5 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.9 14.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.5 341.3 9.6 12.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 45.4 11.7 12.4 11.0 29.3 11.4 21.9 25.1 12.5 10.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 14.3 6.1 12.6 14.7 18.0 16.4 7.9 18.4 15.1 22.2 11.1 10.9 15.7 21.5 11.9 20.1 4.4 11.8 13.0 16.3 25.8 13.3 15.6 21.3 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.9 16.2 13.2 10.3 12.2 13.7 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 40.1 38.6 23.8 37.2 62.0 17.1 35.5 16.8 10.8 105.0 64.4 156.0 10.9 89.4 205.0 30.1 148.5 10.8 11.1 63.7 77.0 14.8 34.6 108.0 82.1 17.2 213.5 50.7 42.0 86.9 23.6 20.8 88.9 45.0 53.2 33.9 16.8 13.8 20.4 96.0 10.9 55.0 23.6 89.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4