MENA Daily Fixed Income Report - 17 November

Transcription

1. MENA Daily Fixed Income Report – 17 November 2020 Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” News Updates GCC Sovereign Yields Moody's assigns Baa1(hyb) rating to Tier 2 bonds of National Bank Sovereigns Maturity Yield % of Kuwait – Moodyʼs Investors Service, ("Moodyʼs") has assigned a 2025 0.83 Baa1(hyb) long-term foreign currency rating to the upcoming USD 300 Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi 2030 1.58 million issuance of subordinated bonds with contractual point of nonAbu Dhabi 2050 2.69 viability (PONV) loss absorption features by NBK Tier 2 Limited, a whollyBahrain 2026 3.49 owned subsidiary of National Bank of Kuwait S.A.K.P. ("NBK" deposits A1 Bahrain 2030 4.92 stable, baseline credit assessment (BCA) a3, Adjusted BCA a3). The Bahrain 2047 6.22 notes will be issued by NBK Tier 2 Limited, a special-purpose vehicle Dubai 2029 2.52 established by NBK. The notes are guaranteed by NBK and rank pari Kuwait 2022 0.37 passu with all other Tier 2 PONV subordinated debt of the bank and the 2027 1.17 holders of the Certificates are therefore effectively exposed to NBKʼs Tier Kuwait 2 subordinated credit risk. (Source: Bloomberg) Bonds and Sukuk Indices Aramco Turns to Bonds to Help Fund $75 Billion Dividend – Saudi Index Name Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, is set to return to the bond Bloomberg GCC FI Index markets for the first time since April of last year as it seeks to fund a $75 S&P MENA Bond and Sukuk Index billion dividend commitment. Aramco, which hired banks including Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Index Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for the sale, needs to raise debt after slumping crude prices caused profit to fall by 45% in the third quarter. Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index That’s left it unable to generate enough cash to fund the investor payouts, Interbank Rates (%) almost all of which go to the Saudi government, which needs the money 3 Months 17/11/2020 31/12/2019 to plug a widening budget deficit. The company could raise about $6 1.4375 2.7500 billion, according to two people familiar with the deal. Aramco media KIBOR SAIBOR 0.8375 2.2314 officials didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Aramco has BHIBOR 2.2500 2.6667 slashed spending, cut jobs, and is considering selling some assets. QATAR 0.9269 2.2500 Despite these efforts to conserve cash, its gearing -- a measure of debt as AEIBOR 0.3804 2.2086 a percentage of equity – has increased to 21.8%, above its target range of EURIBOR -0.5140 -0.3830 5% to 15%. Gearing also rose because the company took on debt to pay LIBOR 0.2220 1.9084 for a $70 billion acquisition of Saudi Basic Industries Corp., a chemical USD Swap Rates maker, earlier this year. (Source: Bloomberg) Dubai Aerospace Mandates Banks for $ 144a/RegS 5.25-Year Sukuk – Dubai Aerospace Enterprise mandates Bank ABC, Commercial Bank of Dubai, Credit Agricole CIB, Deutsche Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, GIB, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC, JPMorgan, Mizuho Securities, Natixis and Truist Securities as joint lead managers and joint bookrunners to arrange global investor calls and a series of fixed income investor calls from Nov. 16. A Rule 144A / Regulation S U.S.$ fixed rate 5.25-year senior unsecured sukuk offering under a $2.5b Trust Certificate Issuance Program, expected to be rated Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by Fitch, will follow subject to market conditions Dubai Aerospace Enterprise is wholly owned (directly and indirectly) by the Investment Corp. of Dubai (Source: Bloomberg) 1-Year 2-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 30-Year Yield % 0.2199 0.2651 0.4735 0.6675 0.9087 1.3398 1D ∆ (bps) 0.08 0.17 0.16 0.22 0.22 0.03 KSA 2025 1.24 Price ∆ (YTD %) 6.65 Sovereigns Maturity 1D ∆ (%) 0.00 -0.02 -0.05 -0.19 Moody’s S&P Kuwait A1 AA- Fitch AA 9.67 KSA 2030 2.05 10.76 KSA A1 A-u A KSA 2050 3.19 11.22 UAE Aa2 NR NR Abu Dhabi Aa2 AA AA Qatar Aa3 AA- AA- Bahrain B2 B+ B+ Oman Ba3 B+ BB- Egypt B2 B B+ Lebanon C SD RD Jordan B1 B+ BB- Turkey B2 B+u BB- Tunisia B2 NR -1.64 Oman 2025 4.84 -3.74 15.65 Oman 2029 6.00 -4.76 -5.10 Oman 2048 7.33 -7.91 3.34 Qatar 2025 0.94 6.68 1.27 Qatar 2030 1.67 12.32 5.77 Qatar 2050 2.76 24.05 Yield % Duration (yrs) 1D ∆ (%) YTD ∆ (%) 2.58 8.08 0.00 7.60 2.06 NA -0.06 8.63 3.80 6.80 0.14 4.39 0.91 7.42 0.16 6.86 6 Months 17/11/2020 31/12/2019 1.6875 2.9375 0.8875 2.2557 2.5333 2.7000 1.0396 2.3500 0.7217 2.1914 -0.5030 -0.3240 0.2460 1.9121 12 Months 17/11/2020 31/12/2019 1.9375 3.1875 0.9550 2.3071 2.6833 2.8333 1.2616 2.5333 0.6604 2.2900 -0.4690 -0.2490 0.3394 1.9963 Currencies KWD SAR BHD QAR OMR AED USD 0.3055 3.7507 0.3771 3.6421 0.3850 3.6731 UK Guilts Yield % 0.18 0.41 0.91 1.67 Yield % 20.16 YTD ∆ (%) -87.6 -84.4 -72.6 -62.9 -52.0 -35.9 US Treasuries 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year Sovereign Ratings Price ∆ (YTD %) 5.22 Yield % -0.04 0.01 0.35 0.94 1D ∆ (bps) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0053 -0.0137 0.0000 0.0000 YTD ∆ (%) -0.79 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 German Bunds 1D ∆ (%) -0.02 -0.02 -0.14 -0.48 Yield % -0.73 -0.75 -0.61 -0.14 1D ∆ (%) -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 0.16 B Morocco Ba1 BBB- BB+ US Aaa AA+u AAA UK Aa2 AAu AA- China A1 A+ A+ USD 5Yr CDS 17-Nov 2020 31-Dec 2019 Kuwait 39.18 36.700 KSA 64.50 56.915 Abu Dhabi 35.40 36.090 Dubai 110.01 91.005 Qatar 35.40 36.705 Bahrain 305.12 175.995 Oman 396.55 234.400 Iraq 582.90 383.680 Egypt 374.07 277.420 Morocco 103.36 91.435 Turkey 395.40 282.130 US 13.13 10.810 UK 17.41 16.210 China 31.29 31.205 Japan 14.76 21.042 Germany 9.52 7.080 France 16.15 16.130 Source: Bloomberg This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C. (Markaz) , which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report can not be published. A number of sources which include Bloomberg, Zawya, and daily newspapers were utilized in the creation of this report.