GCC Equity Market Monitor - 18 April

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage April 18, 2017 4/18/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 25 .0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait - PI Daily Return -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% -0.7% Kuwait Wtd -0.4% YTD Return -4.1% -2.8% -1.9% 0.0% 20.4% MTD Return -0.1% 0.1% -0.5% 2.3% -1.6% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain -0.9% 0.1% 9.2% -1.0% 10.3% 0.4% -0.5% -0.7%
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.562 million (c. US$ 6.660 million) Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Figures In RO Phoenix Power Utilities 331,850 13.0% Nat. Bank Of Oman Banking 310,406 12.1% BUY SELL NET 2,281,599 2,478,105 (196,506) GCC 96,817 517 96,300 Bank Muscat Banking 275,560 10.8% Arabs 6,399 2,450 3,949 Ooredoo Services 246,132 9.6% 176,796 80,538 96,257 Al Anwar Holding Invs/Hldg 192,108 7.5% OMANIS OTHERS MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,396,356 10.2 1.1 5.8% MSM 30 5,544.46 5,550.69 -0.11% -0.11% -4.12% Financial 3,364,096 8.8 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,076.10 8,071.56 0.06% 3.09% 5.27% Industrial 967,838 16.3 1.4 5.1% Industrial 7,562.66 7,600.00 -0.49% -3.05% 2.10% Services 2,727,153 11.6 1.6 6.7% Services 2,808.87 2,824.00 -0.54% -2.66% -8.17% MSM Shariah 2,573,361 10.5 1.5 6.4% 813.21 815.38 -0.27% -3.59% -6.42% MSM Shariah 4/18/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 12,967.4 -0.1 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD -0.2 -1.3 1.4 -1.3 -2.4 1.9 5.0 2.3 2.4 -3.7 -0.8 16.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.6 -0.4 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 5.2 -0.6 8.3 9.5 -0.8 -0.2 2,220.6 0.0 -1.3 5,620.7 0.0 1.4 23,562.6 -0.4 -1.3 525.9 0.3 -2.4 90,653.8 0.7 1.9 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 121.0 0.1 0.5 S&P GCC (USD) 99.0 0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.3 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return 1,020.8 1,653.0 473.7 540.6 824.8 515.1 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,349.0 20,636.9 5,856.8 64,334.9 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,846.1 0.8 -0.4 -0.4 5.4 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,790.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 5.9 MSCI Europe- USD 1,562.4 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 6.2 962.7 0.2 0.5 0.5 11.6 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 572.4 -0.2 1.9 1.9 3.8 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 229.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 -0.9 0.7 -1.8 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 85.9 -0.1 0.7 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %QTD %YTD -0.6 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0 -0.6 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0 4.9 4.4 8.8 6.8 0.1 -1.0 -1.7 0.1 -1.0 -1.7 2.6 4.3 5.5 -2.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.7 -2.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.7 -3.6 9.2 11.5 3.7 6.1 -5.0 %QTD %YTD 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 2.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.9 0.2 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 1.2 0.9 7.2 1.8 1.1 1.5 0.8 -0.2 5.2 4.9 1.3 -4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD Europe 7,327.6 -0.3 5,071.1 -0.6 12,109.0 -0.4 Asia Pacific 18,416.9 0.3 24,026.6 -1.0 29,675.8 0.9 3,218.5 -0.1 2,149.8 0.2 1,094.3 2.0 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.4 %MTD 4 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 100.320 1.064 1.333 109.090 1.257 9.003 1.004 6.890 7.774 64.563 0.756 13,301.000 3.704 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.305 3.641 0.377 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 2.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.9 0.2 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD NYMEX Crude 52.7 0.0 4.1 4.1 -6.0 ICE Brent Crude 55.4 0.1 3.5 3.5 -5.2 Crude Oil, Oman 54.2 -1.0 4.5 4.5 -0.1 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.2 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -11.0 171.9 -0.1 0.9 0.9 -8.1 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,282.9 -0.1 2.7 2.7 11.3 Silver Spot 18.4 -0.1 0.7 0.7 15.5 Platinum Spot 983.1 -0.2 3.4 3.4 8.8 Palladium Spot 787.0 -0.2 -1.4 -1.4 15.1 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,895.0 0.6 -2.9 -2.9 11.2 LME Copper-Spot 5,660.0 1.0 -2.7 -2.7 2.5 LME Zinc-Spot 2,610.5 0.8 -5.1 -5.1 2.1 LME Lead-Spot 2,239.8 -0.3 -3.9 -3.9 12.0 LME Nickel-Spot 9,695.3 0.2 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 655.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 7.4 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 373.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 2.5 Wheat - Active Contract 436.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.6 0.5 CBOT - Soya bean 960.5 -0.3 0.4 0.4 -5.7 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 1,296.0 1.1 Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Index -0.1 -0.1 34.9 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam 855.0 4.3 4.3 0.6 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 825.0 2.5 2.5 -0.6 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 830.0 2.5 2.5 -0.6 Benzene CFR India Spot 835.0 2.5 2.5 -0.6 4.7 3.9 European Naptha Condensates (in USD/ MT) 481.1 4.7 Naphtha C&F Japan 491.9 4.9 4.9 -0.9 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 478.9 2.2 2.2 -1.5 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 53.4 5.1 5.1 -0.6 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,180.0 -0.8 -0.8 27.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,135.0 3.7 3.7 2.7 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,130.0 3.7 3.7 2.7 810.0 -3.0 -3.0 -6.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 1,015.0 -1.5 -1.5 16.7 2EH CFR South East Asia 1,035.0 -1.4 -1.4 16.3 945.0 -2.1 -2.1 -4.1 DOP CFR Far East Asia Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,805.0 1,150.0 -3.8 0.9 -3.8 0.9 -9.8 -1.7 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,160.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,160.0 -0.9 -0.9 2.7 Urea (in USD/ MT) 1,600.0 -3.6 -3.6 3.2 Urea Price (RMB/ MT) UREA Cornbelt 245.0 -2.0 -2.0 -10.9 UREA Middle East 221.0 4.3 4.3 -9.8 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 365.7 -1.3 -1.3 5.9 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 4/18/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Oman slashes roaming mobile charges by 35 % (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman has slashed roaming mobile charges, the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) has announced.  The cost of mobile data per megabyte has been brought down to 327 baisa from 500 baisa, reflecting a reduction of 35 per cent, according to TRA. The new rates are effective from April 1.  According to the new tariffs, the charges for receiving calls in the GCC region have been set at 108 baiza, down from 135 baisa.  The outgoing calls to other GCC countries, including the home country, have been set at 238 baisa, down from 246 baisa per minute. The new regulations apply to voice calls, mobile data and SMS services.  “This is in line with the initiative of GCC regulators, under the umbrella of the GCC General Secretariat, to regulate the prices of roaming services within the Gulf countries. The new price caps are effective from April 1, 2017,” TRA said. Muscat bourse reconstitutes Sharia Index (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman’s Muscat Securities Market has re-constituted its Sharia Index by replacing two companies in the basket with new firms.  The companies that are newly included in the index are Oman Flour Mills and Takaful Oman Insurance, while National Biscuit Industries and Oman Refreshment have been removed from the basket of stocks that constitute the index, according to a circular released by the Muscat Securities Market.  Sharia Index has 15 sample companies and the reconstitution was on the basis of traded volumes, liquidity and financial results of the companies. The newly constituted index will be effective from May 1.  Muscat Securities Market’s Sharia-compliant index is made up of companies that are complied with Sharia Law. The sample companies are reviewed by the bourse every three months to add or remove companies according to their compliance with the criteria.  The index now include Oman Telecommunications Company, Ooredoo, Bank Nizwa, Al Madina Insurance, Raysut Cement, Al Anwar Ceramic Tiles, Al Izz Islamic Bank, Oman Cables Industry, Oman Cement, Al Jazeira Services, Al Maha Ceramics, Shell Oman Marketing, Oman Flour Mills, Takaful Oman Insurance and A’saffa Foods. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Range bound activity to prevail… During the last trading session, he regional markets ended on a mixed note. Oman ended lower by 0.1% for the day with the sell-off seen in stocks across post weak Q1 earnings. We expect the local and the regional markets to open in red on increased equity risk aversion and to see stock specific reactions with the continuing corporate earnings announcements. In Oman, we do anticipate sideways movement to continue along with dull volumes. On the technical perspective, MSM may see support closer to 5,530 levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. UAE News Dubai builder Arabtec asks banks to waive debt terms (Source: Reuters)  Arabtec Holding is asking banks to waive terms on its debt, two banking sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.  The building company has been in talks with its main creditors over the past month to waive the right for banks to call in facilities extended to the business, said the sources, who declined to be identified because the matter had not been made public.  The waiver request comes as Arabtec seeks to ensure that the proceeds of a planned 1.5 billion dirham ($408.4 million) rights issue will go to the company rather than be used to settle its liabilities, one of the sources said, adding that Arabtec will no longer be in breach of debt covenants after the rights issue.  Loss-making Arabtec had said in its 2016 financial statement that it was "in breach of certain debt covenants".  Some of the banks have provisionally agreed to Arabtec's request to waive terms on its debt, the source said. Aldar Properties eyes mid-income market with $354 mln project (Source: Reuters)  Aldar Properties, the largest developer in Abu Dhabi, is betting on the middle income segment with a new project to boost revenues in a depressed real estate market. The move from the state-linked builder of Abu Dhabi's Formula One circuit came as property values and rentals have both fallen due to the economic hit from a sharp drop in oil prices in 2014.  Aldar launched a 1.3 billion dirhams ($354 million) mid-market residential project that will build 1,272 units.  Aldar's chairman Abubaker Seddiq al Khoori said the mid-income population of Abu Dhabi comprises around 40 to 60 percent of the total population with a very low percentage of them owning property. Emaar declares 15% cash dividend  (Source: Arabian Business) Emaar Properties declared a cash dividend of 15%, equivalent to AED1.074 billion ($292 million), for distribution to the company’s shareholders. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. GCC News Saudi Arabia says tax on tobacco , drinks to raise up to $2.7bln (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia's government estimates a new tax on tobacco and sugary drinks will raise between 8 billion and 10 billion riyals ($2.1 billion to $2.7 billion) annually, Al Arabiya television quoted the General Authority of Zakat and Tax as saying.  The government has previously said it will introduce the tax, part of efforts to close a budget deficit that totalled 297 billion riyals last year, in the second quarter of this year.  A 50% levy will be imposed on soft drinks and 100% on tobacco and energy drinks, according to an official statement last December. New regulations for Tadawul loss-making firms effective April 22 (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia’s market regulator, the Capital Market Authority (CMA), will start implementing new rules governing listed companies with accumulated losses of 20 percent of their capital on Saturday, April 22, the CMA said in a statement.  Previous regulations affected companies with losses representing 50 percent or more of their capital. However, they were amended to include companies with losses representing more than 20 percent.  Now, companies with losses above 20 percent and less than 50 percent of their capital have to immediately publish in details the reasons behind their losses.  Firms with losses above 50 percent of capital have to immediately disclose the reasons behind their losses, and the board must then call for an extraordinary general meeting to decide to increase the company’s capital, reduce it, or liquidate before the date defined in the articles of incorporation. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 4/18/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 10