Central Bank of Nigeria: Consumer Expectations Survey Report - 1Q 2018

Transcription

1. Central Bank of Nigeria Statistics Department Consumer Expectations Survey Report April 2018
2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 .0 Highlights 3 2.0 Introduction 3 3.0 Consumer Outlook 4 3.1 Consumer Overall Confidence Index 4 3.2 Outlook on Price Changes in the Next 12 Months 4 3.2.1 Buying Outlook 4 3.3 Borrowing and Exchange Rates Outlook 5 3.4 Unemployment Outlook 5 Technical Notes 6 List of Figures Fig. 1: Nationwide Consumer Outlook Index 4 Fig. 2: Sectoral Indices of Price Changes Over the next 12 months 4 Fig. 3: Buying Conditions Index 4 Fig. 4: Buying Intention Index 5 Fig. 5: Indices of selected economic indicators: next 12 months 5 Annex: Table Table 1: Consumer Expectations Survey data 7
3. A Quarterly Publication of the Central Bank of Nigeria 1st Quarter , 2018 1.0 Highlights The highlights of the Q1 2018 Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) are as follows:     2.0 Overall outlook of consumers deteriorated in the current quarter, as fewer consumers were optimistic in their outlook. Consumers however, had a positive outlook for the next quarter and the next 12 months. Majority of consumers nationwide believe that the next 12 months would not be an ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like motor vehicle and house & lot. Most respondents expected that naira will appreciate, while borrowing, inflation and unemployment rates will rise in the next 12 months The major drivers of the expected upward movement in prices are: Education, transportation, medical care, house rent, electricity and food & other household needs Introduction The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for Q1 2018 was conducted during the period March 16 to 27, 2018, covering a sample size of 2,070 households drawn from 207 Enumeration Areas’ (EAs) across the country. The overall response rate for the Q1 2018 CES was 83.5 per cent. Respondents’ distribution by educational attainment showed that 17.7 per cent had university education, 16.6 per cent had higher non-university education, while 23.8 per cent had senior secondary school education. Respondents with junior secondary and primary school education accounted for 6.4 and 17.2 per cent, respectively, while those with no formal education accounted for the balance of 18.3 per cent. 3
4. 3 .0 Consumer Outlook 3.1 Consumer Overall Confidence Index Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2017 Q4 2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 The consumers’ overall confidence outlook worsened in Q1 2018, as fewer consumers were optimistic in their outlook. The index 60.0 Current Quarter Next Quarter Next 12 months at -6.4 points was 23.0 points lower than the index in the corresponding 40.0 period of 2017. Some respondents attributed this moderation in outlook 20.0 to worsening economic condition and family financial situation. The 0.0 consumer outlook for the next quarter and next 12 months were also positive -20.0 at 20.8 and 28.5 points, respectively (Fig. 1). This positive outlook could -40.0 be attributed to the expected increase in net household income, the Fig 1: Nationwide Consumer Outlook Index anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions, and expectations to save a bit and/or have Savings Purchase of House plenty over savings in the next 12 Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle months (Table 1). Investment Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Debt Payment Sectors 3.2 Outlook on Price Changes in the Next 12 Months Rents Electricity Telecommunication Most respondents expect the prices of goods and services to rise in the next 12 months with an index point of 16.2 points. The major drivers are: Education, transportation, medical care, house rent, electricity, and food & other household needs (Fig. 2). Purchase of Appliances/ Consumer… Medical Expenses Education Food & Other household needs -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 65.0 60.0 60.0 55.0 55.0 50.0 50.0 45.0 45.0 40.0 40.0 35.0 35.0 30.0 Buying C Index Consumer Durables Motor Vehicle Fifty-line 30.0 House & Lot Fig. 3: Buying Conditions Index: 4 Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2017 Q4 2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 25.0 Q2 2014 25.0 Q1 2014 Index points 65.0 Index points Fig. 2: Sectoral Indices of Price Changes over the next 12 months 3.2.1 Buying Outlook The overall buying conditions index for consumers in the current quarter for big-ticket items stood at 34.3 points. This indicates that majority of consumers believed that the current quarter was not the ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like consumer durables, motor vehicles, Transportation
5. and house & lot (Fig 4). 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 Index points 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 Buying Intention Index Consumer Durables Motor Vehicle Fifty-line House & Lot Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2017 Q4 2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 25.0 Q1 2014 Overall buying intention index in the next twelve months stood at 45.5 index points. The index at below 50 points, indicated that respondents have no plans to purchase furniture, gas cooker, refrigerator, air conditioner, television, motor vehicles and houses in the next twelve months (Fig 5). With indices of 1.9 and 24.1 points, consumers expect borrowing rate to rise and Naira to appreciate in the next 12 months (Fig. 6). 50.0 50.0 40.0 40.0 30.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 Index points 3.3 Borrowing and Exchange Rates Outlook 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 Unemployment Rate Index Borrowing Rate index Exchange Rate Inflation Rate index -20.0 -30.0 Zero Line Unemployment Outlook Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2017 Q4 2016 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 -40.0 Q1 2014 -40.0 3.4 Index points Fig. 4: Buying Intention Index Fig. 5: Indices of selected economic indicators: next 12 months The unemployment index for the next 12 months remained positive at 26.6 points in Q1 2018, indicating that majority of the consumers expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months (Fig. 6). 5
6. TECHNICAL NOTES 1 . The Overall consumer confidence index is computed as the average of the three indices, namely: Economic Condition, Family Financial Situation and Family Income. a. Economic Condition refers to the perception of the respondent regarding the general economic condition of the country. b. Family Financial Situation refers to the level of savings, investments, other assets including cash at hand and outstanding debts. c. Family Income includes primary income and receipts from other sources received by all family members as participants in any economic activity or as recipients of transfers, pensions, grants, and the like. 2. The confidence index or diffusion index is computed as the percentage share of respondents that answered in the affirmative less the percentage share of respondents that answered negative in a given indicator. 3. A positive CI indicates that respondents with a favorable view outnumber those with an unfavorable view, except for unemployment, change in prices and interest rate for borrowing money, where a positive CI indicates the opposite. 4. Buying condition and buying intention indices refer to the assessment of consumers as to whether it is good time, neither good nor bad or bad time to buy assets (i.e. consumer durables, house and lot, and motor vehicles) during the quarter. An index above 50 means more respondents indicated that it is a good time to buy assets; below 50 means more respondents believe that it would not be an appropriate time to make those purchases; and 50 means the number of respondents on both sides is equal. BCI = 0.5(100+DI), where DI = diffusion index 6
7. ANNEX : TABLES TABLE 1 Year Quarter National CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS SURVEY 2016 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2017 Q3 Q4 2018 Q1 -29.4 17.5 27.2 -17.0 21.3 34.2 -10.5 19.0 34.8 1.0 28.1 34.4 -6.4 20.8 28.5 1. Overall Consumer Confidence Index All Sectors Current Quarter Next Quarter Next 12 months -28.2 17.8 32.1 -29.8 15.9 29.9 2. Consumer outlook indices on the current economic and family condition: Current Quarter Economic Condition Family Financial Situation Family Income -30.8 -31.9 -21.7 -31.8 -30.5 -27.1 -29.5 -31.6 -27.2 -9.7 -26.0 -15.5 1.7 -28.0 -5.1 -4.3 -5.6 12.8 -16.9 -7.1 4.9 29.4 4.4 30.0 25.7 9.3 21.9 30.5 18.8 35.0 25.5 11.1 25.7 3. Consumer outlook indices on economic and family condition: Next Quarter Economic Condition Family Financial Situation Family Income 18.6 2.0 32.7 21.3 -3.8 30.3 8.7 -6.4 50.3 4. Consumer outlook indices on economic and family condition: Next 12 Months Economic Condition Family Financial Situation Family Income 27.2 8.4 60.6 27.7 1.6 60.4 19.9 0.4 61.2 33.6 8.8 60.2 31.2 12.8 60.5 32.7 26.0 44.6 28.8 19.7 37.1 36.2 39.1 35.5 34.0 34.4 36.4 34.3 32.6 33.1 36.4 32.2 30.7 38.2 42.3 37.4 34.9 40.4 47.4 39.1 34.7 40.3 39.8 43.3 37.8 34.3 36.4 34.6 31.8 47.5 54.2 44.6 43.6 44.6 50.8 41.7 41.2 43.4 50.2 39.9 40.1 48.0 54.4 45.4 44.2 47.0 56.6 43.2 41.3 53.8 58.9 53.8 48.8 45.5 48.6 46.1 41.9 18.1 3.5 -2.2 21.7 21.3 8.9 -8.2 26.3 19.1 -1.5 7.5 18.3 19.2 -6.4 7.0 15.9 33.4 9.1 14.1 2.5 34.6 5.5 11.1 5.8 18.1 3.5 -2.2 8.4 21.3 8.9 -8.2 9.4 19.1 -1.5 7.5 8.0 19.2 -6.4 7.0 8.3 24.2 3.7 30.9 19.7 26.6 1.9 24.1 16.2 22.4 36.6 36.3 29.0 21.5 36.0 45.7 33.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.7 40.7 40.9 32.1 32.8 39.5 47.3 42.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6 34.0 32.0 18.1 21.2 29.1 39.7 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 32.8 28.8 16.5 18.9 26.1 31.7 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 32.4 24.9 2.6 15.4 26.4 26.0 26.4 5.7 0.7 3.6 4.2 -9.2 19.3 33.4 28.2 7.0 15.6 25.2 25.4 31.7 3.6 3.4 9.7 9.7 -1.7 10. Percentage of Respondents by Educational Attainment Primary School 3.1 Junior School 2.7 Senior School 16.7 Higher non-university education 29.9 University 45.4 None 2.1 11. Total Sample Households and Response Rate 3.2 3.0 14.3 30.5 46.8 2.3 2.3 3.5 16.7 29.6 45.2 2.7 3.0 4.1 15.5 27.6 47.3 2.5 2.8 5.8 18.0 29.7 41.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 15.6 25.3 53.6 1.0 17.2 6.4 23.8 16.6 17.7 18.3 Number of Sample Households Number of Respondents Response Rate 1950 1940 99.5 1950 1947 99.8 1950 1950 100.0 1950 1926 98.8 1950 1948 99.9 2070 1729 83.5 5. Buying Conditions Index: Current Quarter Buying Conditions Index Consumer Durables Motor Vehicle House & Lot 6. Buying Intention Index: Next 12 Months Buying Intentions Index Consumer Durables Motor Vehicle House & Lot 7. Indices on Selected Economic Indicators: Next Quarter Unemployment Rate Index Borrowing Rate index Exchange Rate Inflation Rate index 20.5 5.3 -5.2 18.1 8. Indices on Selected Economic Indicators: Next 12 Months Unemployment Rate Index Borrowing Rate index Exchange Rate Inflation Rate index 20.5 5.3 -5.2 8.1 9. Sectors Contribution to price changes over the next 12 months Food & Other household needs Education Medical Expenses Purchase of Appliances/ Consumer durables T elecommunication Electricity Rents T ransportation Debt Payment Investment Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle Purchase of House Savings 24.4 36.0 27.6 16.8 18.0 25.5 40.0 28.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1950 1937 99.3 7