Turkey: Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index - April 2018

Transcription

1. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index April 2018
2. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) | April 2018 Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) Graph 1: Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) 200 190 180 170 160 150 151.6 140 130 120 110 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 100 FSCI=100: A stable outlook in the financial services sector FSCI>100: An optimistic outlook in the financial services sector FSCI<100: A pessimistic outlook in the financial services sector Graph 3: Demand For Services (Turnover) for the Last Three Months (Balance) 0 01.13 04.18 10 0 01.18 20 10 07.17 30 20 01.17 40 30 07.16 50 40 01.16 60 50 07.15 70 60 01.15 80 70 07.14 90 80 01.14 100 90 07.13 100 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 Graph 2: Business Situation for the Last Three Months (Balance) Graph 4: Demand For Services (Turnover) Expectations for the Next Three Months (Balance) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 0 Balance: Difference between percentage of “positive” (increased, will increase, improved, will improve) responses and percentage of “negative” (decreased, will decrease, deteriorated, will deteriorate) responses. 2
3. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) | Graph 6: Employment Expectations for the Next Three Months (Balance) Graph 5: Employment for the Last Three Months (Balance) 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 50 60 40 50 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 10 -10 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 0 01.13 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 -20 Graph 8: Profitability Expectations for the Next Three Months (Balance) Graph 7: Profitability for the Last Three Months (Balance) 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 50 60 40 50 30 40 20 30 10 20 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 0 01.14 10 -20 07.13 -10 01.13 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 0 01.13 April 2018 3
4. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) | Graph 10. Competitive Position Expectations For the Next Three Months (Balance) 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 0 07.16 10 0 01.16 20 10 07.15 30 20 01.15 40 30 07.14 50 40 01.14 60 50 07.13 70 60 01.13 70 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 Competitive Position on Foreign Markets Outside the EU for the Next Three Months 80 07.15 Competitive Position on Foreign Markets Outside the EU for the Last Three Months 80 01.15 Competitive Position on Foreign Markets Inside the EU for the Next Three Months 07.14 Competitive Position on Domestic Market for the Next Three Months Competitive Position on Foreign Markets Inside the EU for the Last Three Months 01.14 Competitive Position on Domestic Market for the Last Three Months 07.13 01.13 Graph 9. Competitive Position For the Last Three Months (Balance) April 2018 Table 1. FSS Developments in Aggregated Results (*) Periodicity Business Situation Monthly Demand For Services (Turnover) Monthly Employment Monthly Operating Income Quarterly Operating Expenses Quarterly Profitability Quarterly Capital Expenditure Quarterly Competitive Position on the Domestic Market Quarterly Competitive Position on Foreign Markets Inside the EU Competitive Position on Foreign Markets Outside the EU Last Three Months Next Three Months Quarterly Quarterly (*) Short arrows indicate monthly/periodical changes, while long arrows indicate annual changes. Except operating expenses, blue coloured arrows represent increases and red coloured arrows represent decreases. 4
5. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) | April 2018 Graph 11. Confidence Indices by Sub-Sectors in the Financial and Insurance Activities 64-Financial Service Activities, Except Insurance and Pension Funding (*) 65-Insurance, Reinsurance and Pension Funding, Except Compulsory Social Security (**) 66-Activities Auxiliary to Financial Services and Insurance Activities (***) 200 180 160 140 120 100 04.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 80 (*) Banks, leasing, factoring ve financing companies are covered. (**) Insurance and pension funding companies are covered. (***) Brokerage firms are covered.     Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index has been carried out as part of the "Joint Harmonized European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys" and published as part of the "Official Statistics Programme (OSP)" based on the Statistics Law of Turkey.     Financial Services Confidence Index is based on the responses given to the Financial Services Survey of the CBRT conducted with the institutions operating in the financial sector . Aggregated results and methodological information are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Financial Services Survey and Financial Services Confidence Index. In addition, time series data can be reached at “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys”.       The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. 5
6. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI)| April 2018 Financial Services Survey Weighted Aggregated Results (Balance Values) JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 77.1 71.8 58.1 79.6 59.1 46.3 53.3 53.0 79.7 89.7 79.0 69.9 58.7 69.4 77.8 80.0 78.5 70.7 62.2 65.4 80.1 81.9 75.5 63.3 16.1 38.4 29.3 5.6 -5.4 -9.1 7.4 -6.5 27.1 26.2 27.2 28.7 29.2 29.9 45.0 24.3 How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? 2017 77.0 52.2 63.8 87.1 2018 56.3 57.1 44.9 43.7 How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 3 months? 2017 59.6 83.1 72.8 87.8 2018 83.9 80.6 89.6 52.3 How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 3 months? 2017 62.8 59.9 60.9 59.0 2018 58.2 60.7 62.5 58.8 How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 3 months? 2017 -17.2 1.6 -6.7 -1.3 2018 -3.1 -12.2 6.7 -3.7 How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 3 months? 2017 43.2 44.6 43.0 28.1 2018 19.3 21.8 22.5 11.3 How has your operating income developed over the last 3 months? 2017 61.5 87.6 2018 72.6 44.7 How do you expect your operating income to develop over the next 3 months? 2017 53.6 53.6 2018 40.6 43.0 How have your operating expenses developed over the last 3 months? 2017 80.4 -3.6 2018 74.5 12.2 How do you expect your operating expenses to develop over the next 3 months? 2017 30.1 53.7 2018 37.8 47.2 How has the profitability of your company developed over the last 3 months? 2017 23.6 92.3 2018 35.9 40.6 How do you expect the profitability of your company to develop over the next 3 months? 2017 71.7 32.8 2018 55.2 43.0 How has your capital expenditure developed over the last 3 months? 2017 44.0 25.0 2018 34.8 17.2 How do you expect your capital expenditure to develop over the next 3 months? 2017 16.9 40.2 2018 36.3 31.4 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? 2017 50.8 47.7 2018 30.6 33.3 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2017 7.8 8.8 2018 20.3 8.5 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2017 7.8 9.0 2018 20.4 9.3 How do you expect the competitive position on the domestic market to develop over the next 3 months? 2017 40.1 32.0 2018 42.2 39.1 How do you expect the competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU to develop over the next 3 months? 2017 8.0 8.9 2018 11.3 9.2 How do you expect the competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU to develop over the next 3 months? 2017 9.8 8.9 2018 11.3 9.6 29.3 58.5 32.4 66.3 40.8 33.6 38.7 59.1 7.4 31.5 46.9 42.7 16.3 24.5 41.2 47.1 42.7 30.2 19.8 28.4 19.8 28.8 41.5 42.0 10.3 20.1 10.1 20.2 6