GCC Daily Market Update - 16 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 16 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,071.5 17,640.2 4,409.5 5,966.8 9,606.7 4,171.6 76,237.4 15,919.6 20,467.5 2,887.2 26,726.3 (3.8) (34.7) (15.4) 43.3 87.5 41.3 477.8 60.6 80.0 45.0 330.6 (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.3 (1.2) (0.8) (2.5) (4.2) (6.4) (7.4) (2.0) (7.6) (1.7) (1.0) 0.2 1.3 1.2 (4.0) (4.4) (10.6) (10.0) 6.3 (16.4) (6.6) (18.4) 2.3 9,768.7 6,566.7 4,340.9 3,324.7 5,390.4 5,826.5 1,118.3 1,443.4 2,806.0 12.3 (59.9) (45.5) (5.0) (21.8) (12.4) (5.0) 3.4 5.2 0.1 (0.9) (1.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.2) (0.5) 0.2 0.2 2.4 1.8 2.1 0.3 (0.2) 0.3 0.6 1.6 (1.6) (6.3) (5.0) 0.8 5.5 (4.0) 7.8 (8.0) (0.4) 0.1 49.0 48.0 2.6 1,285.8 209.1 (0.9) (0.5) (0.0) 0.2 5.1 (1.7) (1.0) (0.4) 0.0 2.5 (2.1) (3.1) 13.5 5.8 (0.3) 30.5 28.5 11.2 21.3 (2.2) Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global markets staged a rebound on Wednesday. In Asia, Japan’s index added 0.4% as yen weakened, while China’s benchmark rallied 1.6% as investors shrugged off MSCI’s decision to delay inclusion of mainland-traded Chinese A shares in its key emerging market index. European indices also closed in green led by Financial and Basic Materials stocks. The broad based Stoxx 600 rose 1.1% during the session. US indices also started on a strong note and sustained gains following Federal Reserve’s decision to delay rate increases. The trend however reversed in the final half-hour of trading, with all 3 major indices closing the day ~0.2% in red. The drop was led by Utilities and Health care stocks. A fall in US industrial output in May due to drop in manufacturing production further lent to the pessimism. GCC Most gulf markets closed in red, as investors focused on sustained drop in oil prices. Saudi Arabia's index dropped 0.9% after MSCI decided not to consider the country for its emerging market index. The most heavily traded stock, Dar Al Arkan, which had soared on hopes it would benefit from a house building program, fell back 5.7%. Saudi Electricity continued its upward trajectory on news of a novel financing method for two planned solar power plants. Dubai's index slipped 0.2% as Emaar Properties lost 0.6%, while Abu Dhabi's benchmark fell 1.0% as blue chip banks sagged. Qatar QE index bucked the broader negative trend in the GCC region, closing 0.1% higher with buying concentrated in Industrials and Banking counters. The most heavily traded stock Mesaieed Petrochemical surged 8.5%. The market also benefitted from global index compiler MSCI’s decision to not include China’s A-shares in its emerging markets index. The move if undertaken could have diluted the nations weighting in the index. The gains were however capped as oil prices witnessed sustained drop. Out of 41 companies traded, 28 advanced, 9 declined and 4 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.0 1.5 4.2 44.1 10,400 DSM 20 13.4 1.5 4.2 33.6 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.2 1.5 3.7 1,233.6 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.4 5.6 21.0 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.2 1.2 4.2 59.0 Kuwait (KSE) 18.0 1.0 4.5 28.0 8,400 23/Mar Oman (MSM) 11.1 1.3 4.4 4.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.3 0.4 4.9 6.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers MPHC Dlala Holding Commercial Bank Qsc National Leasing Al Khaleej Takaful Top Losers QGRI Ezdan Holding Group QIMD Masraf Al Rayan Zad Holding Co Close Price 19.7 20.9 37.4 17.6 24.7 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 8.5 3.8 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.5 12.8 (18.6) 24.8 (19.0) (18.3) 1,162.2 20.7 (24.7) 82.4 NA (30.3) 124.4 11.4 (15.0) 59.1 NA (42.2) 6.6 21.0 46.6 17.5 40.6 33.7 83.5 (1.9) (0.2) (0.4) (0.3) (0.5) (3.9) (1.1) (0.9) (0.7) (0.6) 0.2 10.2 1.9 (10.5) (1.5) (8.6) 2.3 (11.7) (26.0) (16.5) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 8.0 212.1 4.8 182.5 0.1 4.5 26.5 10.4 12.0 11.4 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 15.0 9,768.7 10.0 5.0 6/Apr 20/Apr 4/May Index Volume (mn) 18/May 1/Jun 0.0 15/Jun Index Value Closing Level 2,651.5 6,387.0 3,027.4 3,994.0 2,431.6 1,091.7 2,459.7 1D Change (%) 0.6 0.5 1.2 (1.0) (0.7) 0.1 0.3 Buy (%) 36.2 28.9 65.1 7.8 27.1 35.9 Sell (%) 37.1 28.7 65.8 13.5 20.7 34.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 16 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  US producer price showed slightly bigger than expected increase in May-16. The index climbed by 0.4% in May-16 after edging up 0.2% in April-16. Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices rose by 0.1% in May-16 after inching up by 0.3% in the previous month. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi-based Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair approved the sale of the firm's investment in Spanish clothing retailer Blanco for SAR 350mn (USD 93mn). (Source: Arabian Business)  Jacobs Engineering Group has won a three year contract from Sahara Petrochemicals Company to provide general engineering services at its Jubail Industrial City in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Trade Arabia)  A fee of AED 35 (USD 9.50) will be charged to passengers departing and transiting the emirate’s airports, Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council said. Passengers departing from Abu Dhabi International are already charged an AED 75 (USD 20.42) service fee and AED 5 (USD 1.36) security fee. (Source: Arabian Business) Abu Dhabi’s Aldar Properties has sold out the first phase of 267 units at Yas Acres, generating AED 1bn (USD 272mn) in sales. Sales of the second phase comprising of 125 units will start on 18th June-16. (Source:  US business inventories saw a slight uptick in April-16. Inventories inched up by 0.1% in April-16 after rising by a downwardly revised 0.3% in March.-16. Manufacturing and retail inventories both dipped by 0.1% during the month. (Source: Nasdaq)  UK PPI output prices increased 0.1% for May-16 from a 0.3% gain previously and the annual rate unchanged at -0.7%. Input prices rose sharply by 2.6% over the month with the annual decline easing to 3.9% from 7.0% previously. (Source: Economic Calender)   UK unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest of 5% in Feb-to-Apr 2016 period, according to the Office for National Statistics. The number of people in work rose by 55,000, with the employment rate remaining at a record high of 74.2%. (Source: BBC News)  Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. (Taqa) has offered five-year bonds at a range of 262.5 to 275bps over the mid swap rate and 10-year bonds at a range of 312.5 to 325bps, each tranche having the size of USD 500mn. (Source: Bloomberg)  Australia's unemployment rate was flat at 5.7% in May-16. The number of employed people rose by 17,900 in the month and better than expected rise of 17,000, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. (Source: Bloomberg)  Moody’s has assigned a definitive Baa1 rating to the Government of Oman's US dollar bond issuance, which consist of USD 1bn tranche and USD 1.5bn tranche due in 2021 and 2026, respectively. (Source: Times Of Turkey’s jobless rate dropped to 9.7% in April-16 from 9.9% in March16, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Non-agricultural unemployment rate was 11.9% for April-16, indicating a decrease of 0.7% compared to March-16. (Source: RTT News)  Al Hadeetha Resources, a 70:30 joint venture between the Australiabased Alara Resources and Al Hadeetha Investment Services, has planned to start commercial construction at its copper and gold mine project in Washihi, Oman, by the end of 2016. The company has also planned to invest an additional USD 50mn in commercial mining, CEO of Alara Resources. (Source: Times Of Oman)  Bahrain Liquidity Fund has been launched with USD 100mn of assets in cash and shares to boost liquidity on Bahrain Bourse. The fund will act as a market maker, providing two way quotes on most of the listed stocks, CEO of Bahrain Bourse said. (Source: Times of Oman)  State-run Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco) has launched bidding to expand its Sitra oil refinery. It aims to boost processing capacity of the country's only oil refinery to 360,000 bpd from its current 267,000 bpd under its BAPCO Modernisation Program. The expansion is expected to cost USD 5bn. (Source: Arabian Express)  Arabian Business) Oman) GCC NEWS   GCC’s non-oil trade with US amounted to USD 41.7bn in the first nine months of 2015, a rise of 2.8% YoY as compared to USD 40.6bn. The total value of non-oil exports of the GCC countries to the US amounted to USD 4.8bn in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of 18.7% YoY compared to USD 4bn. (Source: Trade Arabia) Companies in the UAE that record annual revenues over AED 3.75mn will be obliged to register under a VAT system, according to the Undersecretary at the country’s Ministry of Finance. Companies whose revenues range between AED 1.87mn and AED 3.75mn will have an option to either register under the system or not during the first phase of rolling out the system. (Source: Gulf News)  UAE remains in the highest category for per capita GDP in PPP terms, although nominal per capita income has declined markedly in 2015 across all oil-exporting nations as a result of lower oil prices, according to Moody’s. (Source: Khaleej Times)  Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala announced the appointment of Ahmed Saeed Al Calily as CEO of the group's energy platform. Calily had served since 2009 as the director general of the Abu Dhabi Technology Development Committee. (Source: Arabian Business)  Malaysia’s state-owned oil corporation Petronas and Saudi Arabian Oil Co. have asked banks for proposals to finance about USD 7bn for the two projects worth a total of USD 12bn planned refinery and a petrochemical complex in the Southeast Asian nation. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi-based Arabian Centres announced that it has entered into a tenancy agreement with Swedish giant IKEA. As part of the deal, Al Salaam Mall will house a 23,000 sq m IKEA store which is expected to open in 2017. (Source: Arabian Business)  Careem, the largest vehicle redirecting service provider via smart applications in the MENA region, received the license to redirect vehicles from the Ministry of Transport in Saudi Arabia after fulfilling all the Ministry’s requirements. (Source: Alarabiya English) QATAR NEWS  Qatar State Cabinet has endorsed a draft law on economic zones, according to which the company can establish an economic zone or more for the purpose of executing projects and stimulating and attracting investments. The company is to be granted a 50-year concession from the date of application of the law. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar National Bank has completed the acquisition of 99.81% stake in Finansbank in Turkey and will launch a Mandatory Tender Offer in Turkey for the remaining 0.19%. (Source: The Peninsula)  Ukrainian steel producer ‘Interpipe’, which currently supplies 50% of seamless steel pipes in Qatar, plans to significantly enhance its presence in the market over the next five years, as the country transforms its infrastructure to meet growing demand ahead of the 2022 Fifa World Cup. (Source: The Peninsula)  Ooredoo announced the successful pricing of its USD 500mn issuance of senior unsecured Reg S/Rule 144A notes. The Notes are to be issued by its wholly owned subsidiary Ooredoo International Finance Limited under the existing USD 5bn Global Medium Term Notes programme on the Irish Stock Exchange. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Development Bank has approved the setting up of Al Furjan Markets in Um Lakhba and Duhail, Central Municipal Council Member said. (Source: Zawya) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 16 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1290 USD/QAR 3.6405 106.0100 EUR/QAR 4.1101 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4234 JPY/QAR 0.0343 USD/CHF 0.9614 GBP/QAR 5.1819 USD/CAD 1.2912 CHF/QAR 3.7867 AUD/USD 0.7407 CAD/QAR 2.8195 NZD/USD 0.7034 AUD/QAR 2.6965 USD/INR 66.6525 INR/QAR 0.0546 USD/TRY 2.9250 TRY/QAR 1.2446 USD/ZAR 15.2466 ZAR/QAR 0.2388 USD/BRL 3.4740 BRL/QAR 1.0479 FX Commentary The USD fell on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next, suggesting it would be less aggressive in tightening policy after 2016. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.09% to 94.94. GBP gained against the greenback after the Office for National Statistics said Britain’s unemployment rate fell from 5.1% to 5.0% in the three months to April, the lowest level in more than a decade. Increase in pay growth by 2.0% YoY further painted a strong picture of UK labor market, thereby supporting the currency. CAD closed lower against USD due to sustained drop in oil prices. Upbeat manufacturing data in Canada helped cap some losses. JPY and CHF slipped against USD during the day. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.65 1.25 (0.40) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.02) QAIBOR 1.17 1.27 1.44 1.64 1.92 SAIBOR NA NA 1.99 2.22 2.48 EIBOR 0.33 0.42 0.71 1.14 1.70 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.35 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.40% 5.0% 2.5% 2.32% 2.54% 2.54% 0.95% 5 Yrs 1.24% 7 Yrs 1.52% 0.96% 2.39% 0.0% 0.59% 2 Yrs Qatar 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 21.6 2.3 Turkey 266.2 (6.1) UK 37.8 18.8 Brazil 354.7 (115.5) Germany 19.0 6.3 Egypt 476.5 1.1 France 42.5 16.9 Abu Dhabi 104.0 17.3 144.1 47.3 Bahrain 407.5 55.2 1.77% 2.0% 2.40% 2.10% 0.91% 1.92% 1.0% 0.0% 0.82% 2 Yrs 2.85% 1.43% 1.22% 1.05% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,001.7 (94.1) Dubai 216.6 (19.5) Russia 262.5 (50.6) Qatar 114.0 28.3 Japan 39.5 (12.5) Saudi Arabia 185.0 38.0 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM May 0.30% 1.50% 11:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY May 3.80% 4.20% 11:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM May 0.20% 1.30% 11:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY May 3.90% 4.30% 12:00 EC CPI MoM May 0.30% 0.00% 12:00 EC CPI YoY May F (0.10%) (0.10%) 14:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Jun-16th 0.50% 0.50% Jun-11th 270k 264k Jun 1 -1.8 May 0.30% 0.40% May 0.20% 0.20% Jun-10th -- 388.9b 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 15:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 15:30 US CPI MoM 15:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Boubyan Intl Industries Hold* NA NA NA (0.11) (34.73) NA Majan College* NA NA NA 0.45 (4.92) (14.75) Source: Bloomberg, *Results for Q3-16 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 16 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.2 0.0 8.6 1.8 6.2 5.2 2.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.5 6.5 2.1 5.5 3.7 5.3 4.4 4.6 5.0 0.0 9.0 4.4 4.8 5.1 7.4 2.7 5.2 5.7 3.9 3.7 2.6 7.3 3.9 4.6 4.1 5.1 2.6 2.8 6.9 3.0 6.9 2.8 2.0 8.0 4.1 3.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.6 2.1 5.4 5.9 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.8 2.2 1.0 2.4 1.0 2.3 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.7 3.8 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.2 2.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.9 3.1 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 2.5 1.7 0.7 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.5 9.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.1 12.1 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.0 11.7 10.1 26.2 10.5 18.2 24.4 15.2 10.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 14.2 7.0 12.6 13.0 13.1 13.9 8.2 19.3 14.8 22.4 10.5 10.9 14.3 18.7 9.0 16.5 4.7 12.3 11.1 27.5 27.2 13.0 9.6 22.7 11.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.8 17.7 12.9 9.0 11.4 12.7 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 23.4 70.7 20.0 32.8 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.0 36.6 20.1 35.1 59.7 16.2 33.9 17.2 11.8 95.0 61.4 137.3 11.0 93.8 205.1 32.5 151.0 11.5 11.2 61.1 84.0 12.9 37.0 96.3 88.0 18.2 201.6 47.5 41.0 84.5 24.2 19.5 73.0 48.5 58.0 32.0 17.7 13.4 18.7 87.7 10.5 57.6 23.2 85.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4