GCC Daily Market Update - 15 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 15 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,075.3 17,674.8 4,424.9 5,923.5 9,519.2 4,130.3 75,759.5 15,859.0 20,387.5 2,842.2 26,395.7 (3.7) (57.7) 2.2 (121.4) (138.2) (96.7) (774.7) (160.2) (125.5) 9.1 (1.1) (0.2) (0.3) 0.0 (2.0) (1.4) (2.3) (1.0) (1.0) (0.6) 0.3 (0.0) (1.0) (0.6) (2.2) (4.9) (7.2) (8.3) (2.6) (8.0) (2.1) (2.6) (1.0) 1.5 1.4 (3.7) (5.1) (11.4) (10.9) 5.6 (16.7) (7.0) (19.7) 1.1 9,756.4 6,626.6 4,386.4 3,329.7 5,412.1 5,838.9 1,123.3 1,440.0 2,800.7 52.0 36.9 21.3 6.3 (0.2) (8.6) 0.0 (13.8) (20.1) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) 0.0 (1.0) (0.7) 2.3 2.8 3.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 (1.8) (6.5) (4.1) 1.8 5.7 (3.6) 8.0 (7.6) (0.2) 0.1 49.8 48.5 2.6 1,285.6 204.1 (0.5) (0.4) 0.0 1.2 (1.3) (1.0) (0.8) 0.7 0.1 (0.6) (1.1) (2.6) 13.7 5.8 (2.3) 31.8 29.0 11.3 21.3 (4.1) Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets continued their downward trajectory on Tuesday, amidst increased concerns on Brexit. Continued declines in oil prices and uncertainty over the outcome of Fed meet further lent to the pessimism. US markets fell for the fourth consecutive session, led by declines in Financial stocks, which fell 1.5% on concerns over continued low rates. Data showing growth in US retail sales capped the losses. European markets also closed lower with the broad based Stoxx 600 down 1.9%, led by Miners and Energy stocks, which tracked the fall in oil prices. Asian markets closed in red, with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.0% as yen continued to strengthen against its peer currencies. China’s index however bucked the broader trend closing 0.3% in green as investors awaited decision from index compiler MSCI on whether to include Chinese-listed stocks in its widely tracked Emerging Markets (EM) Index. GCC Most gulf indices closed higher on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s index climbed 0.6%, however caution prevailed as investors awaited MSCI's decision on inclusion of Kingdom’s stocks in the EM index. Saudi Electricity Co (+10%) continued its surge since it announced its solar power plans. Dubai’s index rose 0.2% as Dubai Islamic Bank climbed 2.4%. Abu Dhabi's benchmark gained 0.5%, mainly helped by Etisalat and First Gulf Bank, which rose 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. Qatar QE index closed 0.5% higher, snapping a 3 day losing streak as Domestic, Gulf and Foreign institutions turned bullish on bourse. Gains were however limited as local and non-Qatari retail investors turned net profit takers and there was weakened net buying by their Gulf counterparts. Buying activity was concentrated in Realty and Telecom sectors. In terms of volumes Banking, Real estate, Telecom and Industrials counters together constituted more than 90% of the total traded. Out of 39 companies traded, 16 gained, 22 declined and 01 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.0 1.5 4.2 33.8 10,400 DSM 20 13.4 1.5 4.2 31.2 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.3 1.5 3.7 1,026.4 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.6 1.5 5.6 16.5 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.2 1.2 4.2 72.1 Kuwait (KSE) 18.1 1.0 4.5 26.3 8,400 22/Mar Oman (MSM) 11.1 1.3 4.4 4.6 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.4 4.9 9.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Ezdan Holding Group QIMD Ooredoo Qsc National Leasing Commercial Bank Qsc Top Losers Mannai Corporation Gulf Warehousing Co Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar National Cement Al Khalij Commercial Close Price 17.7 41.0 87.7 17.2 36.6 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.5 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 11.4 2.8 16.9 22.2 (20.4) 4.0 (10.1) 0.1 (17.1) (32.7) 88.0 57.6 58.0 84.5 16.2 (2.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.4) (0.2) (2.2) (1.9) (1.7) (1.6) (1.2) (7.7) 1.2 (19.4) (8.9) (10.1) (20.2) (15.9) (29.3) (22.5) (27.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 132.5 0.2 49.6 102.7 34.7 26.8 10.5 11.3 NA 11.2 0.7 8.1 41.9 15.6 0.6 12.3 0.9 10.9 8.8 9.1 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 15.0 9,756.4 10.0 5.0 5/Apr 19/Apr 3/May Index Volume (mn) 17/May 31/May 0.0 14/Jun Index Value Closing Level 2,637.0 6,357.4 2,992.7 4,032.7 2,448.0 1,090.4 2,452.7 1D Change (%) 0.0 (0.5) (0.4) 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.4 Buy (%) 14.4 59.6 74.0 4.8 21.2 26.0 Sell (%) 25.3 54.1 79.4 5.9 14.7 20.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 15 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS   Ajman Bank has raised AED 675mn (USD 183.7mn) through a rights issue which was 195% oversubscribed. The bank raised AED 500mn against issuance of 500mn new ordinary shares and AED 175mn representing share premium. (Source: Arabian Business) US retail sales rose 0.5% in May-16, compared to a 1.3% jump in April16. Retail sales have climbed 2.5% in the past 12 months. (Source: Bloomberg)   Prices for imported goods in the US rose in May-16 at their fastest pace in over four years. The prices rose 1.4% in May-16 as compared to a 0.7% increase in April-16, as per the Labor Department. (Source: WSJ) Saudi Arabia’s plan to reshape its oil-dependent economy is creditpositive as it presents a credible path to achieving fiscal and economic diversification, according to Moody’s. (Source: Saudi Gazette)   UK’s consumer price inflation held steady in May at 0.3% as rises in transport and hotel costs were offset by falls in the price of clothing and food. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at 1.2%. (Source: Bloomberg) Saudi Arabia's cabinet approved a tax on undeveloped urban land and rules allowing foreign investors to own 100% of retail and wholesale businesses. Previously, the country’s foreign ownership ceiling was set at 75%. (Source: Zawya)   Italy’s consumer price index dropped 0.3% YoY in May-16, as compared to a drop of 0.5% YoY in April-16. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3% in May-16, after dipping 0.1% in April-16. Oman’s Ministry of Transport and Communications has signed three agreements with the British (Lloyds Register of Shipping), Italian (Rina) and Emirati (Tasneef) ship classification societies for small ships that do not abide by international treaties. (Source: Times Of Oman)  Oman government is turning to alternative funding sources such as procuring a USD 5bn to USD 10bn loan from the international market, Executive President of the Central Bank of Oman said. (Source: Times Of (Source: London South East)  Japan’s Industrial production climbed 0.5% MoM and fell 3.3% YoY in April-16. The capacity utilization contracted 0.2% MoM in April-16 after a 0.1% MoM decrease in March-16. (Source: RTT News)  Fitch cut its outlook for Japan to negative from stable, citing Tokyo’s decision to postpone a sales tax hike, seen as critical to paying down one of the world’s biggest national debts. However, it left Japan’s A credit rating unchanged. (Source: Gulf News)  Australian business condition outside the mining sector continued to recover in May-16. Overall business condition were unchanged at +10 index points in May-16 which is above the long-run average of +5, according to National Australia Bank. (Source: ABC News) GCC NEWS  UAE imports of poultry meat in 2015 amounted to AED 2.98bn, growing 5.9% YoY, according to the Ministry of Economy. Exports stood at AED 40.92mn, while re-exports were worth AED 79.50mn. (Source: Gulf Today)  The value of defense imports by the UAE was USD 2.07bn in 2015 and by Saudi Arabia was USD 9.3bn. In 2016, Saudi imports are estimated to exceed USD 10bn and the UAE will record imports bill of USD 3.06bn, according to the IHS Inc. (Source: Albawaba)  The US and the UAE announced an agreement to collaborate on matters of space and aeronautics research, including the potential journey to Mars. The two countries would also collaborate on education and public outreach. (Source: Gizmodo)  Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Singapore government’s sovereign fund GIC together invested USD 230mn in Indian renewable energy company, Greenko Energy Holdings. (Source: Clean Technica  Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company and its subsidiary Aabar Investments have submitted a formal request for arbitration in a contractual dispute worth USD 6.5bn with Malaysian state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad. (Source: Arabian Business) Oman)  Oman Air has temporarily suspended all flights to and from Sohar Airport as part of a plan to strengthen its finances. The airline said that after thoroughly studying its Sohar Airport operations it has stopped the services as they did not achieve the targeted profitability since inauguration in November-14. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain-based Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company reported USD 47.5mn profit in 2015, four times less than its USD 190mn profit in 2014. (Source: Arabian Business)  Customer complaints against banks in Bahrain rose 35% in three years, according to the Central Bank of Bahrain. In 2016, there were an average of 31 complaints per month, compared to 26 and 23 in 2014 and 2013, respectively. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s telecom market earned total revenue in excess of QAR 10bn in 2015 as compared to QAR 9.45bn in 2014, according to Communications Regulatory Authority (CRA)’s report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s banking industry, whose profitability rose 1.7% YoY in Q1-16 against a 0.7% fall in the GCC average despite higher provisions, maintained the highest lending growth within the regional lenders, according to the Global Investment House. (Source: Gulf Times)  The total trading value in real estate sales contracts registered with the Land Registry Department of the Ministry of Justice during the period 5th-9th June-16 reached QAR 513.1mn. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar has reaffirmed its keenness to co-operate with the various Human Rights Council mechanisms to enable it to carry out its mandate with transparency, objectivity, independence and integrity. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and Italy will sign an agreement in Rome that foresees the Gulf state ordering four corvette warships and a support vessel from statecontrolled ship builder Fincantieri, according to the government source. The order, when completed, would be worth around EUR 5bn (USD 5.6bn). (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Gulf News)   Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) has secured a USD 230mn unsecured loan from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. The company said that the five year loan will help ENOC fund new projects and expansion plans. (Source: Arabian Business) Authorities in Qatar are considering adopting a new data privacy law that would fine organizations who fail to prevent leaks up to QAR 5mn. The law has moved one step closer to being enacted after the Advisory (Shura) Council unanimously approved the draft. (Source: Doha News)   The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation has announced contracts with UAE based companies totaling more than USD 3bn (AED 11bn) for the construction of the country’s first nuclear energy plant at Barakah. (Source: Gulf News) The air-conditioner market in Qatar is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% during 2016 to 2021, according to a report by TechSci Research. The demand growth is backed by increasing construction activities being undertaken on account of upcoming Fifa World Cup 2022. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai food prices during the first week of Ramadan edged up 0.28%, compared to the last week of the month of Shaban, according to the Dubai Statistics Center. Prices of fish and seafood increased by 7.1% and milk, cheese and eggs increased by 1%, and beverages by 0.7%. 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 15 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1237 USD/QAR 3.6402 106.1100 EUR/QAR 4.0905 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4144 JPY/QAR 0.0343 USD/CHF 0.9633 GBP/QAR 5.1487 USD/CAD 1.2872 CHF/QAR 3.7789 AUD/USD 0.7358 CAD/QAR 2.8280 NZD/USD 0.6993 AUD/QAR 2.6785 USD/INR 66.7675 INR/QAR 0.0545 USD/TRY 2.9350 TRY/QAR 1.2403 USD/ZAR 15.3011 ZAR/QAR 0.2379 USD/BRL 3.4822 BRL/QAR 1.0454 FX Commentary JPY surged to its highest levels in more than three years against the EUR and rose to a six-week high versus the USD as the Brexit concerns further intensified after Britain's biggest selling paper, the Sun, came out in favor of leaving the bloc. The survey sent GBP to a two-month low against the greenback. USD trimmed some losses against the yen after data showed US retail sales increased 0.5% last month following an unrevised 1.3% surge in April. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, edged up 0.12% to 94.53. AUD edged up marginally majorly due to weakness in the USD, however gains were trimmed after the National Australia Bank said its business confidence index fell to 3 in May from a reading of 5 the previous month. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.65 1.26 (0.39) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.02) QAIBOR 1.18 1.30 1.47 1.71 2.03 SAIBOR NA NA 1.96 2.20 2.46 EIBOR 0.35 0.43 0.72 1.12 1.70 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.35 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.41% 5.0% 2.5% 2.32% 2.56% 2.56% 1.03% 1.32% 1.58% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.98% 2.42% 0.0% 0.62% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 21.7 2.2 Turkey 270.7 (4.3) UK 37.4 19.1 Brazil 359.2 (97.3) Germany 19.1 6.5 Egypt 476.6 1.2 France 40.0 15.3 Abu Dhabi 107.1 19.4 150.4 51.8 Bahrain 411.3 38.9 1.80% 2.0% 2.40% 2.12% 0.95% 1.95% 1.0% 0.88% 2.82% 1.49% 1.28% 1.12% Italy Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,015.3 (99.7) Dubai 221.7 (17.3) Russia 269.3 (35.4) Qatar 121.0 34.3 Japan 41.5 (9.5) Saudi Arabia 188.0 39.4 Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 9:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY May F -- (25.00%) 9:45 France CPI EU Harmonized MoM May F 0.30% 0.30% 9:45 France CPI EU Harmonized YoY May F 0.00% 0.00% 9:45 France CPI MoM May F 0.40% 0.40% 9:45 France CPI YoY May F (0.10%) (0.10%) 11:30 UK Claimant Count Rate May 2.10% 2.10% 11:30 UK Jobless Claims Change May 0.0k (2.4k) 11:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 15:30 US 15:30 Apr 5.10% 5.10% Jun-10 -- 9.30% PPI Final Demand MoM May 0.30% 0.20% US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM May 0.10% 0.10% 15:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY May (0.10%) 0.00% 15:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY May 1.00% 0.90% 15:30 US Empire Manufacturing Jun (4.9) (9.02) 16:15 US Industrial Production MoM May (0.20%) 0.70% 21:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Jun-15 0.50% 0.50% 23:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows Apr -- $78.1b Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 15 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.3 0.0 8.6 1.7 6.1 5.2 3.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.5 6.5 2.1 5.5 3.7 5.3 4.3 4.6 5.0 0.0 8.9 4.4 4.7 5.1 7.3 2.7 5.1 5.6 3.8 3.7 2.6 7.3 3.8 4.6 4.2 5.1 2.6 2.8 6.8 2.9 6.9 2.8 2.0 8.1 4.0 3.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.6 2.1 5.4 5.9 5.1 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.8 2.2 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.8 3.9 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.2 2.5 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.9 3.1 0.7 3.0 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.5 9.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.2 12.1 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.0 11.7 10.1 26.0 10.6 18.4 24.6 15.2 10.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.2 7.1 12.7 13.1 13.3 14.1 8.3 19.5 14.7 22.6 10.6 11.1 14.5 18.5 9.0 16.6 4.8 12.5 11.2 27.6 27.5 13.1 9.5 22.8 11.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.6 18.0 12.8 9.0 11.4 12.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 23.4 70.7 20.0 32.8 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.0 36.3 20.5 35.0 61.0 16.4 33.8 16.8 12.0 95.2 61.5 138.1 10.9 95.0 207.5 32.5 150.5 11.6 11.2 61.5 86.0 13.1 37.7 97.8 90.0 18.4 201.1 47.9 41.0 86.0 24.0 19.5 73.4 49.7 59.0 32.1 17.9 13.5 18.5 86.1 10.6 58.7 23.1 85.2 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4