GCC Daily Market Update - 22 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 22 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,088.9 17,829.7 4,413.4 6,226.6 10,015.5 4,367.2 77,531.4 16,169.1 20,668.4 2,878.6 26,812.8 5.7 24.9 13.2 22.6 53.5 26.5 8.3 203.8 158.2 (10.3) (54.1) 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.3 0.8 (0.4) (0.2) (0.4) 0.2 (2.4) (0.1) (2.4) (3.1) (0.3) (6.2) (0.7) (1.3) 0.5 2.2 2.3 (3.9) (0.3) (6.8) (5.8) 8.1 (15.1) (5.7) (18.7) 2.7 9,919.3 6,553.0 4,503.5 3,343.4 5,437.6 5,788.4 1,115.4 1,455.9 2,848.5 94.1 (5.9) 22.5 37.5 5.9 3.9 0.0 22.1 8.9 1.0 (0.1) 0.5 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.3 4.0 1.6 6.0 0.9 0.7 (0.4) 0.3 2.5 (0.1) (4.9) (5.2) 4.6 6.1 (3.2) 7.1 (8.3) 1.1 1.7 50.6 48.9 2.8 1,270.5 211.6 (0.0) (0.5) 0.0 (19.5) 2.3 (0.1) (1.1) 0.8 (1.5) 1.1 2.2 2.0 20.2 4.6 0.8 36.3 35.2 17.7 19.8 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global indices continued their upward trajectory on back of easing fears of Brexit. Two polls showed "In" regaining the lead while another showed the "Out" campaign's lead narrowing. US indices closed ~0.3% in green after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the Fed would remain cautious in raising interest rates. Energy sector (+1.1%) led its peer indices despite a dip in the price of oil. The markets were however cautious as evident from reduced trading volumes. European indices surged further, with broad based Stoxx 600 adding 0.7%, registering its third consecutive day of gains. UK’s index benefitted from abated fears over Brexit, while Germany’s benchmark got a boost after data showed investor confidence in the nation rise to a 9-month high. Asian markets closed higher led by Japan’s Nikkei, which closed 1.3% in green, tracking gains in US indices overnight. GCC Most major GCC indices closed in green, with an exception to Saudi Arabia, which closed marginally lower tacking a drop in oil prices. Abu Dhabi’s index closed 0.5% higher, supported by speculation on consolidation in Banking sector after Arqaam Capital said that it expects a merger between Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (+2.2%) and UNB. Dubai's index added 1.1% with momentum accelerating in the final hour of trade. The benchmark was buoyed by mid- and large-cap stocks. Qatar QE index added 1% witnessing buying support from Domestic Institutions. A marginally higher buying support from Gulf institutions as well as bullish outlook of Gulf and non-Qatari individual investors also helped the bourse. Buying activity was concentrated in Realty (1.9%), Insurance (0.9%), Industrials (0.7%) counters. In terms of volumes, banking, industrials and real estate stocks together constituted more than 77% of the total traded, with significant activity witnessed in Mazaya Qatar, Ezdan, Barwa and IQ. More than 90% of stocks closed in green during the session. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.2 1.5 4.1 47.1 10,400 DSM 20 13.6 1.5 4.1 35.6 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.1 1.5 3.8 770.9 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.5 5.4 21.2 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.2 1.2 4.2 47.4 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.0 4.4 39.6 8,400 29/Mar Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.3 4.5 3.6 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.3 0.4 4.9 0.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Doha Insurance Co Islamic Holding Group Dlala Holding MRDS Ezdan Holding Group Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Ooredoo Qsc Doha Bank Qsc NA NA Close Price 20.0 63.0 21.8 13.7 18.0 0.7 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.4 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.2 2.0 (4.8) (19.9) 17.9 0.9 13.2 (23.4) (44.3) (20.0) (24.5) (3.5) 1.3 9.3 60.1 102.8 51.7 NA 278.9 13.4 171.9 27.3 40.2 88.9 35.0 NA NA (1.6) (0.4) (0.1) NA NA (3.7) (0.4) (0.1) NA NA (8.3) 18.5 (21.3) NA NA (8.2) 4.0 (34.2) NA NA 18.7 11.9 29.3 11.4 56.5 7.6 NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,900 15.0 9,919.3 10.0 5.0 12/Apr 26/Apr 10/May Index Volume (mn) 24/May 7/Jun 0.0 21/Jun Index Value Closing Level 2,671.2 6,428.0 3,074.0 4,024.0 2,501.2 1,103.9 2,479.5 1D Change (%) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.9 (0.3) 0.7 Buy (%) 42.7 17.9 60.6 11.4 28.0 39.4 Sell (%) 48.8 12.6 61.4 10.6 28.0 38.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 22 , 2016  UK’s budget deficit narrowed in May-16. Net borrowing stood at GBP 9.7bn (USD 14.3bn) as compared to GBP 10.1bn in May-2015, according to the Office for National Statistics. (Source: Bloomberg) Oman issued government Treasury bond valued at OMR 82mn (USD 213mn) for a period of 28 days at an average discounted rate of 0.83849%, according to the Central Bank of Oman. (Source: Kuna)  UK’s factory order book balance in June-16 rose to -2 points from -8 points in May-16, according to The Confederation of British Industry. The measure of export orders were held steady at -14 points in June16. (Source: Reuters) State General Reserve Fund of Oman has signed an agreement, through its subsidiary African Acquisition Sarl, with Irish mining company Kenmare Resources to invest USD 100mn. (Source: Arabian  Germany’s economic sentiment index rose to 19.2 points in June-16, compared to 6.4 points in May-16 as confidence in the German economy helped offset concerns about a possible British exit from the European Union. (Source: ABC News) Taxpayers in the Oman have been warned against delay in submitting their annual returns of income for the financial year ended 31st December-15, the Secretary-General of Taxation in the Ministry of Finance (Source: Oman Daily Observer)  Moody's has affirmed the A3 insurance financial strength rating (IFSR) of Al Ahleia Insurance Co. (Al Ahleia). The outlook remains negative. The rating follows an assessment of Al Ahleia's consolidated credit profile post its acquisition of a majority stake (91.7%) in Kuwait Reinsurance Co. in Q4-15. (Source: CPI Financial)  Bahrain has attracted USD 110mn in investments and created 1,200 jobs since the beginning of 2016, according to the Economic Development Board. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has approached banks for a USD 750mn loan towards the financing of its Line 6 expansion project, according to the company. Production from the facility is expected to start in early 2019. Alba is raising around USD 3bn to help finance the scheme, through a mixture of loans from banks and export credit agencies and an international bond or sukuk issue. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain-based Investcorp has bought a majority stake in Italian menswear Company Corneliani in a deal that values the group at USD 100mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Societe Egyptienne D’entreprises (Moukhtar Ibrahim), a construction firms in Egypt, is actively looking at major infrastructure and industrial projects in Kuwait and expects to win a share of the lucrative USD 2bn contracts, the company's Director and Deputy Chairman of Financial and Administrative affairs said. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS     The unemployment rate in Russia fell more-than-expected in May-16, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.6%, from 5.9% in April-16, according to Russian Federation State Committee. (Source: Investing)  Turkey’s Central Bank has cut the overnight lending rate by 50 bps to 9%, while leaving the policy rate and the lower band of the corridor (borrowing rate) unchanged at 7.50% and 7.25%, respectively. (Source: Daily Sabah)  China's Minxin Small and Medium Enterprise Index dropped in Jun-16, indicating worsening conditions after it had showed signs of stabilization in the previous month. The index fell to a four-month low of 43.2 in June-16 compared to 45.8 in May-16. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS    UAE expats can now buy land at Dubai World Central (DWC), which grants expats the right to absolute ownership of land and property in DWC plots 205, 206 and 207, Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai said. It also gives owners the right to lease property on these plots for up to 99 years. (Source: Arabian Business) UAE’s Ajman Sewerage has announced the commencement of two strategic projects worth AED 75mn, which will include the construction of a major 10 km sewerage pressure line between Ajman City and Ajman Sewerage's treatment plant and a 40 km sewer gravity network in Ajman's Al Jurf Industrial Zones 1 and 3. (Source: Zawya)  UAE’s Gulf Islamic Investments has announced that it has acquired a commercial property in Pennsylvania, US in a deal worth USD 48mn with part of the acquisition financed through a five year sharia compliant loan. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar has brought most of the workers under Wage Protection System (WPS). Around 1.5mn workers, of the total 1.7mn in Qatar have been covered under WPS so far, according to Minister of Administrative Development, Labour and Social Affairs. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar's CCTV market in Qatar is projected to register a CAGR of more than 14% during 2016-21 mainly due to ongoing construction activities in hospitality, retail, healthcare, metro projects, luxury housing projects, according to TechSci Research. (Source: PR Newswire)  Researchers in Qatar are working on a new project to increase the efficiency of solar cells and decrease their manufacturing costs. The group including the Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute is also trying to assess the best locations in Qatar to place solar panels.  UAE-based Unikai Foods has announced signing of an agreement with Behzad Group. Under the deal, Behzad will distribute Unikai’s portfolio of products in the Bahraini market. (Source: Gulf Business)  Dubai Municipality has planned to set up the largest plant at Al Warsan 2 in the Middle East to convert solid waste into energy at a cost of AED 2bn (USD 544mn). The move falls in line with the national agenda to reduce the landfill by 75% by 2021. It will be operational in Q2-20. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s KBW Investments announced signing a partnership deal with technology manufacturer Ascorel Group. The agreement will see the creation of the French firm’s regional subsidiary, Ascorel Middle East, which will begin operations in August-16. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia is to grant licenses to two more US firms, 3M and Pfizer to operate in the kingdom following its licensing of US petrochemicals giant Dow, Minister of Commerce and Investment announced. It is not yet known when the three firms will commence operations in the kingdom. (Source: Arabian Business)  Business) Saudi Arabia's government will sell about SAR 20bn (USD 5.3bn) of domestic bonds to banks, according to the Maaal. This domestic debt sale will comprise five-, seven- and 10-year bonds in fixed- and floating-rate tranches. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS (Source: Doha News)  Qatar’s Mayhoola investment fund have acquired the French luxury fashion label Balmain for around EUR 460mn (USD 522mn). Under the terms of the agreement, Mayhoola agreed to finance Balmain's international expansion as well as the development of an accessories line. (Source: Reuters)  Moody’s has said that the credit rating of Qatar National Bank’s QAR 10bn additional Tier I (AT1) perpetual capital notes is credit positive and it will strengthen the capital base of Qatari lender. (Source: Gulf Business Times)  Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) has announced that it will be the preferred financing partner of Jaidah Equipment under the terms of the strategic partnership that QIB forged with Jaidah. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 22 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1272 USD/QAR 3.6406 104.7500 EUR/QAR 4.1037 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4682 JPY/QAR 0.0348 USD/CHF 0.9622 GBP/QAR 5.3451 USD/CAD 1.2817 CHF/QAR 3.7836 AUD/USD 0.7450 CAD/QAR 2.8404 NZD/USD 0.7122 AUD/QAR 2.7122 USD/INR 66.9900 INR/QAR 0.0543 USD/TRY 2.9099 TRY/QAR 1.2511 USD/ZAR 14.7143 ZAR/QAR 0.2474 USD/BRL 3.4133 BRL/QAR 1.0666 FX Commentary The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major world currencies, rose 0.45% to 94.031 on Tuesday. The gains came after investors sold the GBP and the EUR on news that the gap between the Remain and Leave camp had narrowed in the latest poll on Britain's referendum. The EUR fell further after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said during a speech at the European Parliament that Britain's June 23 referendum was adding uncertainty to markets, and that the ECB was ready to act with all instruments if necessary. He also said that "further monetary policy stimulus (was) in the pipeline”. JPY closed lower against the greenback, after abated fears over Brexit, removed sheen of the safe haven. CAD gained, as sentiment on the greenback weakened ahead of testimony by Fed Chair, although lower oil prices limited the gains. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.45 0.65 1.25 (0.39) (0.37) (0.36) (0.27) (0.03) QAIBOR 1.14 1.26 1.39 1.56 1.96 SAIBOR NA NA 2.04 2.24 2.49 EIBOR 0.38 0.47 0.70 1.15 1.70 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.35 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.31% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.24% 2.49% 2.49% 1.06% 1.36% 1.65% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.96% 2.49% 0.60% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 20.5 1.5 Turkey 250.3 (19.6) UK 35.4 15.9 Brazil 328.6 (178.6) Germany 18.7 6.0 Egypt 476.3 (0.5) France 37.6 11.8 Abu Dhabi 98.1 12.6 143.8 44.0 Bahrain 390.5 28.8 2.0% 0.0% 2.49% 2.18% 1.83% 0.92% 0.89% 2 Yrs 1.58% 1.36% 1.17% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.95% 2.03% Italy Greece 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,012.3 (53.3) Dubai 192.1 (45.5) Russia 247.2 (66.8) Qatar 110.5 26.0 Japan 40.1 (9.9) Saudi Arabia 181.2 26.7 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Period Survey Prior Jun-17th -- (2.40%) 15:30 Canada 15:30 Canada Retail Sales MoM Apr 0.80% (1.00%) Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Apr 0.70% (0.30%) 16:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD Apr 0.60% 0.70% Jun-20th -- 16:00 Russia CPI WoW 3.10% Jun-20th -- 17:00 EC Consumer Confidence 0.10% Jun A (7) (7) 17:00 US 17:00 US Existing Home Sales May 5.55m 5.45m Existing Home Sales MoM May 1.80% 2:50 Japan 1.70% Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Jun-17th -- ¥867.8b 2:50 2:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Jun-17th -- ¥129.6b Japan Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Jun-17th -- ¥764.3b Jun-17th -- ¥128.3b Jun P -- 47.7 2:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 5:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 22 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.1 0.0 8.6 1.7 6.2 5.2 2.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.5 6.5 2.1 5.5 3.7 5.3 4.4 4.6 5.0 0.0 8.9 4.4 4.8 5.1 7.4 2.7 5.0 5.6 3.7 3.7 2.6 7.4 3.9 4.5 4.1 5.2 2.7 2.8 6.7 3.0 6.8 2.8 2.0 7.8 4.1 3.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.6 2.1 5.4 5.9 5.1 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 0.9 2.3 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.2 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.8 3.9 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.2 2.5 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.9 3.1 0.7 3.0 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 2.5 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.4 9.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.2 12.0 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.0 11.8 10.2 26.0 10.6 18.3 24.5 15.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.2 6.9 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.4 8.2 20.2 14.7 22.4 10.4 11.1 14.7 19.0 8.9 16.2 4.7 12.6 11.0 27.9 27.1 13.0 9.9 22.7 11.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 15.0 17.9 12.9 9.1 11.5 12.9 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 23.4 70.7 20.0 32.8 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 41.8 37.1 21.2 35.1 61.0 16.2 33.6 18.1 11.6 95.6 61.8 139.3 10.9 94.5 206.5 32.5 151.5 11.4 11.3 61.5 83.5 12.9 37.7 99.9 89.0 19.0 201.0 47.6 40.4 85.9 24.6 19.3 71.7 48.8 59.5 32.5 17.7 13.4 19.2 89.3 10.5 58.4 23.2 85.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4