Weekly Market Monitor - Middle East - April 2016
Ard, Participation, Sales
Transcription
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research April 10, 2016 Index Performance Current Week Previous Week WTD (%) YTD (%) Beta (Yr) MSM 30 . 5,609.70 5,467.42 2.60% 3.76% 1.000 Financial 7,158.65 6,906.71 3.65% 10.52% 1.228 Industrial 6,773.48 6,661.86 1.68% 0.03% 0.816 Services 3,137.25 3,101.77 1.14% 2.67% 0.674 Source: MSM, GBCM Research MSM 30 Index Performance Vs Turnover In RO 000s 8,000 7,000 4,000 5,600 Central Bank of Oman to let banks count government debt towards reserves Central Bank of Oman (CBO) will allow banks to count Treasury bills, government development bonds and government sukuk towards their reserve requirements, up to a maximum of 2 % of deposits. The move, effective from this month, aims to provide greater flexibility for banks in liquidity management, credit deployment and investments. The overall reserve requirement for banks remains unchanged at 5% of deposits. (Source: Oman Observer) 5,500 3,000 5,450 2,000 5,400 1,000 ‐ MSM 30 5,350 31‐Mar 5,615 3‐Apr 2,230 4‐Apr 5,157 5‐Apr 4,808 6‐Apr 5,056 7‐Apr 7,596 5,467 5,489 5,563 5,570 5,575 5,610 MSM Weekly Trading Activity ‐ Total Turnover RO 24.848 million (c. US$ 64.60 million) Fig. In RO Buy Sell Net Buy / (Sell) Omanis 20,890,912 20,746,231 144,681 GCC 1,435,705 1,247,673 188,032 Arabs 398,560 384,643 13,917 2,122,621 2,469,251 (346,630) Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 1 In terms of market activity, a total of 145.047 million shares got traded during the week amounting to an aggregate turnover of RO 24.848 million as against RO 21.960 million in the previous week. In terms of participation, Omani & GCC Investors emerged as net buyers to an extent of RO 145K and RO 188K respectively. Foreign Investors emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 346K. 5,550 5,000 Turnover The MSM30 index started the second quarter of the year on a strong note, with the Benchmark appreciating by 2.60% in the first week of the new quarter. The Index witnessed five straight sessions of positive movement. The Brent and Oman crude had advanced by 8% during the week. For the week, the Financial Index advanced by 3.65%. The Industrial Index ended the week higher by 1.68% while the Services Index closed in green by 1.14%. 5,650 6,000 Index surges on positive sentiments… Outlook for the upcoming week… During the last trading week, the GCC markets ended on a mixed note, while MSM continued its strong run amid buying seen across the board along with the relatively improved market participation from both investors and traders. Qatar ended down by 2% for the week. We anticipate the beginning of peak Q1 earnings season in Oman and the GCC region this week; this should act as short term trigger to the respective markets. We do expect the MSM and the regional equities to open on a positive note for the week on the back of sharp recovery in the oil prices over the weekend. We do anticipate the risk on rally in the GCC equities to prevail, still advice investors to stick to quality and fundamentally strong names. MSM sees support at 5,550 levels, while new resistance is seen at 5,660 points
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research Value Leaders‐Weekly 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Top Five Gainers/ Losers for the Week 21.9% 25% Global Financial Inv Gulf Int Chemicals 12.1% Oman Orix Leasing ‐3.3% 10% 6.8% 4.9% 5% 12.5% Gulf Inv Services 12.7% Bank Sohar 13.8% Al Anwar Holding 16.8% Al Anwar Holding Bank Muscat Bank Sohar ‐13.7% Gulf Inv Ser Pref Shares ‐9.6% 15% 11.6% ‐20.0% Resaissances Services Bonds 20% 0 ‐32.6% Galfar Engineering Omantel 0% Oman & Emirated Inv Port Services 21.7% Volume Leaders‐ Weekly 30,000 25,000 20,000 MSM Sectoral Market cap for the week 20% 17.5% Other Services, 4.9% 18% 13.3% 16% 12.8% 14% Power Utilities, 13.7% 12% 8.7% 15,000 Banking, 30.9% 10% 8% 5.5% 10,000 6% Investments, 6.1% Telecom, 19.1% 4% 5,000 0 Leasing, 2.9% 2% Al Anwar Holding Galfar Engineering Bank Sohar Bank Nizwa Global Financial Inv Oil Marketing, Other Industry, Insurance, 1.2% 5.0% 11.4% Cement, 4.1% Engg & Const., 0.5% 0% Brokerage, 0.3% Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 2 Source: MSM, GBCM Research
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research MSM ‐ Value Indicators GCC‐ Market Performance for the week Mkt. Cap (In RO’000s) PER P/BV Dividend Yield (%) MSM 30 6,245,585 11.9 1.2 5.6% Financial 3,032,327 7.8 0.9 5.1% Industrial 1,019,609 19.5 1.4 5.1% 2,967,624 21.1 1.9 5.9% 3,290,041 17.5 1.8 5.6% Value Indicators Services MSM Shariah 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ‐2.0% ‐4.0% ‐6.0% ‐8.0% ‐10.0% ‐12.0% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (Abu Dhabi) Kuwait Qatar Bahrain WTD (%) 2.6% 0.6% 0.9% ‐0.9% 0.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.2% YTD (%) 3.8% ‐9.5% 7.5% 1.0% ‐6.9% ‐2.5% ‐8.1% Source: MSM, GBCM Research Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Commodities Performance for the week Commodities Current Week Last Week WTD (%) NYMEX WTI Crude 39.7 36.8 8.0% ICE Brent Crude 41.9 38.7 8.5% Crude Oil, Oman 38.5 35.5 8.4% NYMEX Natural Gas 2.0 2.0 1.7% 146.4 140.2 4.4% 1,239.4 1,222.5 1.4% NYMEX Gasoline Gold Spot Silver Spot 15.4 15.1 2.1% LME Aluminium (Spot) 1,503.5 1,523.3 ‐1.3% LME Copper (Spot) 4,663.8 4,859.8 ‐4.0% LME Zinc (Spot) 1,745.0 1,864.3 ‐6.4% 478.0 480.0 ‐0.4% 362.3 354.0 2.3% CBOT Wheat 460.3 475.8 ‐3.3% CBOT Soyabean 916.8 918.3 ‐0.2% Hot Rolled Coil ‐ Steel CBOT Corn Source: Bloomberg; GBCM Research Page | 3 Oman ‐ Weekly News watch… Bank Muscat has received all regulatory approvals to open a representative office in Iran. The bank is in the process of registering the representative office and expects it to open later in 2016. (Source: MSM) Galfar Engineering and Construction has won four Public Authority for Electricity and Water (PAEW) contracts worth RO 21.92 million. The contracts are for Operation and maintenance of the assets of the PAEW in Governorate of A'Dakhiliyah, South Al Batinah and Muscat. The completion period is five years from receiving the Engineer’s Order. (Source: MSM) GCC ‐ Weekly News Watch… Yanbu Cement Co. reported a net profit of SR 184 million in Q1 2016, an 11.1% YoY decline due to lower sales volume, higher fuel prices, and lower sales value. Gross profit of the company has declined by 10.7% YoY to SR 200 million, while operational profit has declined by 11.3% YoY. (Source: Argaam) QNB Group reported a net profit of QR 2.9 billion for the first quarter of 2016, a 7.1% increase compared to last year. Total assets grew 9.7% YoY to QR 550 billion due to 16.4% growth in loans and advances to QR 402 billion. Non‐performing loans to gross loans ratio remained low at 1.4%, while the coverage ratio reached 120%. (Source: Argaam)
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage – Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. Page | 4
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