Turkey: Business Tendency Survey and Real Sector Confidence Index - November 2017

Transcription

1. BUSINESS TENDENCY STATISTICS AND REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX NOVEMBER 2017 STATISTICS DEPARTMENT REAL SECTOR DATA DIVISION CONTENTS 1 BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY RESPONSES 2 REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX 2 .1 Real Sector Confidence Index 2.2 Real Sector Confidence Index-Seasonally Adjusted 3 BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY WEIGHTED AGGREGATED RESULTS 3.1 How has your production developed over the past 3 months? It has... 3.2 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... 3.3 Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? 3.4 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 3.5 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 3.6 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 3.7 Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? 3.8 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? 3.9 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? 3.10 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? (*) 3.11 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is… (*) 3.12 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) 3.13 What main factors are currently limiting your production? Rank according to degree of importance. (% Share) (*) 3.14 How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 3.15 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 3.16 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 3.17 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will… 3.18 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? It will... 3.19 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. 3.20 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? It has... 3.21 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? It will... 3.22 How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... 3.23 How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... 3.24 What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months ? (Weighted Average) (%) 3.25 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? It will... 3.26 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) 3.27 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) 3.28 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). www.tcmb.gov.tr
2. Statistics Department Contents 1 . BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY RESPONSES RESPONSES 2800 PARTICIPANTS 2600 2400 2200 2000 2115 2054 2017-01 2017-02 2017-03 2017-04 2142 2143 2137 2118 2118 2017-09 2096 2017-08 2094 2017-06 2098 2017-05 2095 2016-12 1600 2016-11 1800 2119 2102 1400 1200 RESPONSES BY SECTORS SECTORS (Nace Rev.2) 10 Manufacture of food products Participants 269 19 2017-11 2017-10 2017-07 1000 NOVEMBER 2017 Responses 229 Response Rate (%) 85.1 18 94.7 100.0 11 Manufacture of beverages 12 Manufacture of tobacco products 5 5 13 Manufacture of textiles 333 259 77.8 14 Manufacture of wearing apparel 217 162 74.7 15 Manufacture of leather and related products 42 36 85.7 16 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture 47 39 83.0 17 Manufacture of paper and paper products 77 58 75.3 18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media 34 28 82.4 19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 11 11 100.0 20 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 97 72 74.2 21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations 23 18 78.3 22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 156 116 74.4 23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 303 241 79.5 24 Manufacture of basic metals 120 107 89.2 25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 234 184 78.6 26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products 37 35 94.6 27 Manufacture of electrical equipment 121 99 81.8 28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. 202 156 77.2 29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 105 85 81.0 30 Manufacture of other transport equipment 35 32 91.4 31 Manufacture of furniture 65 47 72.3 32 Other manufacturing 54 49 90.7 33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment Total 19 16 84.2 2625 2102 80.1 2
3. Statistics Department Contents 2 . REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX 2.1 Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) January 2007 - November 2017 R eel Sector Confidence I ndex Total amount of orders (Current situation) Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) (*) 2016 2017 Average Maximum Minumum November December January February March April May June July August September October November 104.0 121.0 52.6 103.5 97.6 97.1 105.9 108.9 111.2 109.2 112.4 109.5 110.7 111.6 109.5 106.3 84.3 100.4 26.9 92.9 90.3 84.8 92.1 92.7 97.2 98.2 99.1 100.4 99.0 99.5 98.8 98.5 95.4 117.0 78.6 100.5 96.1 94.4 100.6 100.4 95.0 94.0 98.6 99.1 97.6 99.2 97.3 98.7 Volume of output (Next 3 months) 118.6 161.5 48.8 106.9 98.6 104.3 124.7 129.5 125.2 116.9 116.6 115.8 118.0 120.0 119.0 112.6 Total employment (Next 3 months) 107.4 121.5 51.9 105.3 108.2 107.9 112.5 120.9 113.8 114.5 114.9 112.9 112.1 115.0 113.1 108.4 Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 106.6 134.1 33.1 118.1 105.3 98.3 89.9 98.5 117.6 124.8 130.2 112.6 114.7 118.0 116.8 106.7 Export orders (Next 3 months) 117.5 141.2 62.3 107.4 102.4 111.8 128.3 125.4 129.3 109.6 116.3 116.7 127.4 121.8 118.4 114.2 Fixed investment expenditure 105.1 128.7 47.1 102.3 98.4 101.6 105.1 108.7 110.5 111.0 112.2 113.3 112.6 111.4 112.0 114.5 97.0 124.8 29.1 94.8 81.7 73.8 93.9 95.3 101.3 104.8 111.4 105.1 104.5 107.9 100.5 96.5 General business situation 2.2 Real Sector Confience Index - Seasonally Adjusted (RSCI-SA) January 2007 - November 2017 2016 2017 Average Maximum Minumum November December January February March April May June July August September October November 103.9 117.0 59.8 108.2 103.9 100.6 106.2 106.5 106.3 104.8 108.8 107.7 110.2 111.2 112.2 109.8 Total amount of orders (Current situation) (**) 84.3 100.4 26.9 92.9 90.3 84.8 92.1 92.7 97.2 98.2 99.1 100.4 99.0 99.5 98.8 98.5 Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) (*) (**) 95.4 117.0 78.6 100.5 96.1 94.4 100.6 100.4 95.0 94.0 98.6 99.1 97.6 99.2 97.3 98.7 Volume of output (Next 3 months) 118.3 139.4 72.3 122.2 119.7 112.8 117.7 111.7 108.8 104.5 111.4 114.1 117.8 123.2 129.0 127.2 Total employment (Next 3 months) 107.3 119.3 60.0 110.9 114.8 112.1 113.2 118.1 108.0 110.0 110.5 110.9 113.0 115.1 116.1 113.6 Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 106.5 134.4 43.0 122.6 114.2 105.9 105.6 109.3 113.1 108.8 114.6 103.7 114.4 114.3 121.4 105.5 Export orders (Next 3 months) 117.3 132.7 75.2 119.2 116.2 119.0 121.5 115.8 116.6 106.9 112.6 115.1 122.4 118.6 122.5 123.6 105.1 128.7 47.1 102.3 98.4 101.6 105.1 108.7 110.5 111.0 112.2 113.3 112.6 111.4 112.0 114.5 97.0 124.8 29.1 94.8 81.7 73.8 93.9 95.3 101.3 104.8 111.4 105.1 104.5 107.9 100.5 96.5 R eel Sector Confidence I ndex Fixed investment expenditure General business situation (**) (**) (*) When the diffusion index of the amount of stock of finished goods is calculated, the signs of the responses are reversed. While an increase in the diffusion index points out a decrease in the amount of stocks, a decline in the diffusion index indicates a rise in the amount of stocks. (**) Since seasonality is not observed in the series of total amount of orders, amount of stocks of finished goods, fixed investment expenditure and general business situation, these variables are not seasonally adjusted. 3
4. Statistics Department Contents 3 . BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY WEIGHTED AGGREGATED RESULTS 3.1 How has your production developed over the past 3 months? It has... Months Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance PRODUCTION - TREND OF LAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) % 2016-11 24.8 52.7 22.5 2.3 50 2016-12 36.7 51.2 12.1 24.6 40 2017-01 33.9 49.4 16.6 17.3 30 2017-02 28.4 53.0 18.6 9.8 2017-03 21.8 59.5 18.7 3.1 2017-04 25.1 63.1 11.8 13.3 -10 2017-05 35.0 58.7 6.3 28.7 -20 2017-06 37.6 57.3 5.1 32.5 -30 2017-07 32.3 57.8 9.9 22.4 -40 2017-08 26.2 57.9 15.9 10.3 2017-09 23.8 59.2 17.0 6.8 2017-10 30.5 55.4 14.1 16.4 2017-11 34.7 52.7 12.6 22.1 20 10 0 -50 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -70 3.2 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... Months Increase Remained unchanged Decrease Balance % 2016-11 24.8 57.3 17.9 6.9 50 2016-12 20.1 58.4 21.5 -1.4 40 2017-01 18.6 67.1 14.3 4.3 30 2017-02 32.0 60.7 7.3 24.7 20 2017-03 36.1 57.3 6.6 29.5 2017-04 33.3 58.6 8.1 25.2 -10 2017-05 30.0 56.9 13.1 16.9 -20 2017-06 29.9 56.8 13.3 16.6 -30 2017-07 28.9 58.0 13.1 15.8 -40 2017-08 30.1 57.8 12.1 18.0 2017-09 33.3 53.4 13.3 20.0 2017-10 32.1 54.8 13.1 19.0 2017-11 27.5 57.6 14.9 12.6 PRODUCTION - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 10 0 -50 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -70 3.3 Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? Normal for the season Below normal 2016-11 6.5 86.5 7.0 -0.5 2016-12 11.2 81.5 7.3 3.9 2017-01 11.8 82.0 6.2 5.6 2017-02 7.8 83.8 8.4 -0.6 2017-03 7.6 84.4 8.0 -0.4 2017-04 9.7 85.6 4.7 5.0 2017-05 10.1 85.8 4.1 6.0 Balance 2017-06 7.4 86.6 6.0 1.4 2017-07 7.6 85.7 6.7 0.9 2017-08 6.6 89.2 4.2 2.4 2017-09 7.4 86.0 6.6 0.8 2017-10 7.0 88.7 4.3 2.7 2017-11 6.8 87.7 5.5 1.3 % CURRENT STOCK OF FINISHED PRODUCTS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Above normal Months 4
5. Statistics Department Contents 3 .4 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... Months Increased Remained unchanged Decreased 33.3 51.5 15.2 2016-12 25.5 54.3 2017-01 23.5 51.3 2017-02 18.4 2017-03 OVERALL ORDERS - TREND OF LAST 3 MONTHS % (Increased - Decreased) 18.1 40 20.2 5.3 30 25.2 -1.7 20 53.1 28.5 -10.1 10 21.8 54.9 23.3 -1.5 2017-04 32.0 53.6 14.4 17.6 2017-05 36.0 52.8 11.2 24.8 2017-06 37.4 55.4 7.2 30.2 -40 2017-07 26.3 60.0 13.7 12.6 -50 2017-08 29.0 56.7 14.3 14.7 -60 2017-09 33.1 51.8 15.1 18.0 -70 2017-10 31.7 53.4 14.9 16.8 2017-11 26.0 54.7 19.3 6.7 0 -10 -20 -30 -80 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2016-11 Balance 3.5 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... Months Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance DOMESTIC ORDERS - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) % 2016-11 26.3 54.8 18.9 7.4 40 2016-12 22.7 54.9 22.4 0.3 30 2017-01 16.7 56.7 26.6 -9.9 20 2017-02 17.8 53.0 29.2 -11.4 2017-03 18.7 55.3 26.0 -7.3 2017-04 21.2 59.6 19.2 2.0 2017-05 29.4 55.6 15.0 14.4 -30 2017-06 34.1 56.4 9.5 24.6 -40 2017-07 27.9 60.9 11.2 16.7 -50 2017-08 29.0 58.4 12.6 16.4 -60 2017-09 33.6 51.8 14.6 19.0 -70 2017-10 33.5 52.8 13.7 19.8 2017-11 22.5 60.0 17.5 5.0 10 0 -10 -20 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -80 3.6 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased 2016-11 28.0 56.3 15.7 2016-12 20.0 57.2 2017-01 27.6 55.4 2017-02 23.2 2017-03 Balance EXPORT ORDERS - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS % (Increased - Decreased) 12.3 40 22.8 -2.8 30 17.0 10.6 20 56.7 20.1 3.1 10 25.7 60.1 14.2 11.5 2017-04 29.5 59.3 11.2 18.3 2017-05 26.5 59.0 14.5 12.0 2017-06 31.0 57.3 11.7 19.3 2017-07 22.4 56.9 20.7 1.7 -50 2017-08 20.4 56.6 23.0 -2.6 -60 2017-09 21.4 53.7 24.9 -3.5 -70 2017-10 27.8 56.6 15.6 12.2 -80 2017-11 27.7 53.7 18.6 9.1 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 5
6. Statistics Department Contents 3 .7 Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? Months Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % -7.1 10 TREND OF CURRENT OVERALL ORDERS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 2016-11 5.2 82.5 12.3 2016-12 6.0 78.3 15.7 -9.7 2017-01 4.4 76.0 19.6 -15.2 2017-02 7.3 77.5 15.2 -7.9 2017-03 5.8 81.1 13.1 -7.3 2017-04 6.7 83.8 9.5 -2.8 -30 2017-05 7.8 82.6 9.6 -1.8 -40 2017-06 7.5 84.1 8.4 -0.9 -50 2017-07 8.3 83.8 7.9 0.4 -60 2017-08 6.9 85.2 7.9 -1.0 2017-09 7.1 85.3 7.6 -0.5 2017-10 6.8 85.2 8.0 -1.2 2017-11 5.8 86.9 7.3 -1.5 0 -10 -20 -70 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -80 3.8 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % -8.8 0 TREND OF CURRENT DOMESTIC ORDERS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 2016-11 4.9 81.4 13.7 2016-12 6.0 79.2 14.8 -8.8 2017-01 3.8 76.5 19.7 -15.9 2017-02 6.3 70.3 23.4 -17.1 2017-03 7.4 77.9 14.7 -7.3 2017-04 6.8 83.2 10.0 -3.2 2017-05 6.8 82.1 11.1 -4.3 2017-06 9.2 81.7 9.1 0.1 2017-07 7.1 84.3 8.6 -1.5 2017-08 5.2 86.8 8.0 -2.8 2017-09 8.6 82.3 9.1 -0.5 2017-10 7.0 85.3 7.7 -0.7 2017-11 6.8 85.2 8.0 -1.2 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 3.9 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % 2016-11 6.5 78.7 14.8 -8.3 2016-12 5.7 76.9 17.4 -11.7 2017-01 5.2 76.8 18.0 -12.8 -10 2017-02 6.6 78.0 15.4 -8.8 -20 2017-03 7.1 80.5 12.4 -5.3 2017-04 8.1 81.7 10.2 -2.1 2017-05 7.4 81.1 11.5 -4.1 -40 2017-06 8.2 78.5 13.3 -5.1 -50 2017-07 8.2 81.6 10.2 -2.0 -60 2017-08 7.6 83.1 9.3 -1.7 2017-09 6.1 85.3 8.6 -2.5 2017-10 5.1 84.8 10.1 -5.0 2017-11 6.2 84.0 9.8 -3.6 TREND OF CURRENT STOK OF FINISHED PRODUCTS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 0 -30 -70 -80 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 6
7. Statistics Department Contents 3 .10 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? (*) Months Weighted average PRODUCTION PERIOD Months 2016-10 3.5 6 2017-01 3.3 5 2017-04 3.5 2017-07 3.6 2017-10 3.5 (Weighted Average) 4 3 2 1 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 0 3.11 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is… (*) Months More than sufficient Sufficient Not sufficient Balance CURRENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY (More than sufficient - Sufficient) % 15 2016-10 7.7 84.4 7.9 -0.2 2017-01 12.3 79.6 8.1 4.2 2017-04 6.9 84.5 8.6 -1.7 2017-07 8.2 86.9 4.9 3.3 0 2017-10 5.5 89.0 5.5 0.0 -5 10 5 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 -10 3.12 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Weighted average 2016-11 78.0 2016-12 78.1 2017-01 77.0 2017-02 76.8 2017-03 76.7 2017-04 78.4 2017-05 78.8 2017-06 79.0 2017-07 78.7 2017-08 78.8 2017-09 79.0 2017-10 79.7 2017-11 79.9 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (%) (Weighted Average) % 100 90 80 70 60 50 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 3.13 What main factors are currently limiting your production? Rank according to degree of importance. (% Share) (*) a. None b. Insufficient demand c. Shortage of labour force d. Shortage of material and/or equipment e. Financial constraints f. Others 2016 October 50.6 21.0 6.7 7.8 6.8 7.1 2017 January 48.1 22.7 7.8 8.8 7.8 4.8 April 52.0 17.8 8.1 8.1 7.3 6.7 July 60.3 14.2 7.0 7.7 6.6 4.2 October 59.4 14.6 6.9 7.5 6.7 4.9 FACTORS LIMITING THE PRODUCTION Insufficient demand 14.6% Shortage of labour force 6.9% No Limiting Factors 59.4% Shortage of material and/or equipment 7.5% (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). Others 4.9% Financial constraints 6.7% 7
8. Statistics Department Contents 3 .14 How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... Months Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance % 2016-11 22.1 57.7 20.2 1.9 60 2016-12 17.9 59.5 22.6 -4.7 50 2017-01 25.5 59.8 14.7 10.8 40 2017-02 35.0 56.3 8.7 26.3 30 2017-03 39.5 54.0 6.5 33.0 2017-04 44.6 47.1 8.3 36.3 2017-05 37.7 48.1 14.2 23.5 -10 2017-06 34.0 52.3 13.7 20.3 -20 2017-07 33.7 56.3 10.0 23.7 -30 2017-08 30.6 57.3 12.1 18.5 -40 2017-09 29.9 55.6 14.5 15.4 -50 2017-10 36.0 51.6 12.4 23.6 2017-11 25.9 56.9 17.2 8.7 OVERALL ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 20 10 0 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -60 3.15 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? They will... Months Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance % 2016-11 21.5 55.2 23.3 -1.8 60 2016-12 21.6 54.0 24.4 -2.8 50 2017-01 20.5 55.3 24.2 -3.7 40 2017-02 32.0 56.0 12.0 20.0 30 2017-03 37.1 55.1 7.8 29.3 2017-04 40.4 52.2 7.4 33.0 2017-05 34.0 53.3 12.7 21.3 -10 2017-06 32.0 53.9 14.1 17.9 -20 2017-07 32.0 56.7 11.3 20.7 -30 2017-08 28.3 63.4 8.3 20.0 -40 2017-09 31.9 51.5 16.6 15.3 -50 2017-10 29.5 54.3 16.2 13.3 2017-11 24.7 56.7 18.6 6.1 DOMESTIC ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 20 10 0 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -60 3.16 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 7.4 EXPORT ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS % 2016-11 25.4 56.6 18.0 2016-12 19.9 62.6 17.5 2.4 2017-01 24.1 63.6 12.3 11.8 40 2017-02 35.3 57.7 7.0 28.3 30 2017-03 32.0 61.4 6.6 25.4 20 2017-04 36.9 55.5 7.6 29.3 2017-05 25.3 59.0 15.7 9.6 2017-06 32.6 51.1 16.3 16.3 2017-07 28.1 60.5 11.4 16.7 -30 2017-08 35.4 56.6 8.0 27.4 -40 2017-09 27.9 66.0 6.1 21.8 -50 2017-10 31.7 55.0 13.3 18.4 2017-11 25.3 63.6 11.1 14.2 (Increase - Decrease) 60 50 10 0 -10 -20 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 8
9. Statistics Department Contents 3 .17 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will… Months 2016-11 Increase 12.9 Remained unchanged 79.5 Decrease Balance 7.6 5.3 % TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase-Decrease) 40 2016-12 15.5 77.2 7.3 8.2 2017-01 14.7 78.5 6.8 7.9 20 2017-02 17.8 76.9 5.3 12.5 10 2017-03 25.0 70.9 4.1 20.9 0 2017-04 18.2 77.4 4.4 13.8 -10 2017-05 17.6 79.3 3.1 14.5 -20 2017-06 17.9 79.1 3.0 14.9 -30 2017-07 15.7 81.5 2.8 12.9 -40 2017-08 15.9 80.3 3.8 12.1 -50 2017-09 18.1 78.8 3.1 15.0 -60 2017-10 16.9 79.3 3.8 13.1 2017-11 13.8 80.8 5.4 8.4 30 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -70 3.18 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? It will... Months 2016-11 Increase 23.0 Remain unchanged 56.3 Decrease Balance 20.7 2.3 40 % 2016-12 20.7 57.0 22.3 -1.6 30 2017-01 20.0 61.6 18.4 1.6 20 2017-02 20.3 64.5 15.2 5.1 10 2017-03 23.7 61.3 15.0 8.7 0 2017-04 24.4 61.7 13.9 10.5 -10 2017-05 25.1 60.8 14.1 11.0 -20 2017-06 25.1 62.0 12.9 12.2 -30 2017-07 25.5 62.3 12.2 13.3 -40 2017-08 24.7 63.2 12.1 12.6 2017-09 25.7 60.0 14.3 11.4 2017-10 24.7 62.6 12.7 12.0 2017-11 25.5 63.5 11.0 14.5 FIXED INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 12 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) -50 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -70 3.19 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. More optimistic Remain unchanged More pessimistic Balance % GENERAL COURSE OF BUSINESS (More Optimistic - More Pessimistic) 2016-11 8.4 78.0 13.6 -5.2 40 2016-12 6.7 68.3 25.0 -18.3 30 2017-01 4.2 65.4 30.4 -26.2 20 10 2017-02 9.3 75.3 15.4 -6.1 2017-03 12.8 69.7 17.5 -4.7 0 2017-04 13.3 74.7 12.0 1.3 -10 2017-05 14.1 76.6 9.3 4.8 -20 2017-06 19.1 73.2 7.7 11.4 -30 2017-07 13.9 77.3 8.8 5.1 2017-08 11.3 81.9 6.8 4.5 2017-09 15.0 77.9 7.1 7.9 2017-10 11.7 77.1 11.2 0.5 2017-11 9.8 76.9 13.3 -3.5 -40 -50 -60 -70 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 9
10. Contents Statistics Department 3 .20 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? It has... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance 2016-11 45.3 51.0 3.7 41.6 2016-12 49.0 46.3 4.8 44.2 2017-01 58.2 39.0 2.8 55.4 2017-02 59.1 38.6 2.3 56.8 2017-03 55.8 39.6 4.6 51.2 2017-04 47.9 49.2 2.9 45.0 2017-05 42.6 53.5 3.9 38.7 2017-06 34.0 60.3 5.7 28.3 2017-07 33.1 57.9 9.0 24.1 2017-08 34.3 60.3 5.4 28.9 2017-09 45.4 51.4 3.2 42.2 2017-10 49.6 45.6 4.8 44.8 2017-11 50.7 46.2 3.1 47.6 AVERAGE UNIT COST - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) % 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 3.21 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? It will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance AVERAGE UNIT COST - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS % (Increase - Decrease) 2016-11 41.3 55.7 3.0 38.3 2016-12 52.1 46.9 1.0 51.1 2017-01 53.8 43.6 2.6 51.2 2017-02 45.0 50.5 4.5 40.5 2017-03 41.0 54.1 4.9 36.1 2017-04 37.9 56.8 5.3 32.6 2017-05 32.0 62.0 6.0 26.0 2017-06 26.5 66.0 7.5 19.0 2017-07 34.1 58.7 7.2 26.9 2017-08 32.9 61.6 5.5 27.4 2017-09 36.5 59.3 4.2 32.3 2017-10 39.9 56.0 4.1 35.8 2017-11 48.0 49.9 2.1 45.9 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 3.22 How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-11 31.9 63.5 4.6 27.3 2016-12 44.3 51.2 4.5 39.8 2017-01 42.9 52.9 4.2 38.7 2017-02 38.8 57.2 4.0 34.8 2017-03 34.3 60.9 4.8 29.5 2017-04 28.4 66.4 5.2 23.2 2017-05 27.7 66.4 5.9 21.8 2017-06 20.9 72.2 6.9 14.0 2017-07 24.0 70.2 5.8 18.2 2017-08 27.9 68.5 3.6 24.3 2017-09 26.2 69.4 4.4 21.8 2017-10 28.7 66.5 4.8 23.9 2017-11 34.1 62.2 3.7 30.4 DOMESTIC MARKET SELLING PRICES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS % (Increased - Decreased) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 3.23 How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remained unchanged Decrease Balance % SELLING PRICES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 2016-11 30.3 64.3 5.4 24.9 2016-12 41.2 55.5 3.3 37.9 2017-01 40.2 55.6 4.2 36.0 2017-02 38.7 57.6 3.7 35.0 2017-03 33.7 61.7 4.6 29.1 2017-04 27.3 68.5 4.2 23.1 2017-05 26.0 69.2 4.8 21.2 2017-06 21.0 72.5 6.5 14.5 2017-07 24.4 70.2 5.4 19.0 2017-08 28.5 67.8 3.7 24.8 2017-09 26.4 67.7 5.9 20.5 2017-10 30.9 64.4 4.7 26.2 2017-11 30.9 65.2 3.9 27.0 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 10
11. Statistics Department Contents 3 .24 What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months ? (Weighted Average) (%) Weighted average 2016-11 7.5 2016-12 8.0 2017-01 8.7 2017-02 9.0 2017-03 9.6 2017-04 10.2 2017-05 10.5 2017-06 10.5 2017-07 10.5 2017-08 10.7 2017-09 10.8 2017-10 11.1 2017-11 11.4 INFLATION RATE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS (%) % (Weighted Average) 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 3.25 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? It will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-11 19.9 66.7 13.4 6.5 2016-12 37.0 58.2 4.8 32.2 2017-01 51.0 45.1 3.9 47.1 2017-02 38.5 56.2 5.3 33.2 2017-03 33.1 61.3 5.6 27.5 2017-04 33.1 61.3 5.6 27.5 2017-05 31.6 63.1 5.3 26.3 2017-06 21.2 71.7 7.1 14.1 2017-07 27.8 66.5 5.7 22.1 2017-08 19.7 72.9 7.4 12.3 2017-09 17.7 73.6 8.7 9.0 2017-10 32.1 63.3 4.6 27.5 2017-11 36.2 61.6 2.2 34.0 CREDIT INTEREST RATE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 MONTHS % (Increase - Decrease) 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 11
12. Statistics Department Contents 3 .26 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? It has… Months Improved Remained unchanged 2016-10 9.0 82.9 2017-01 8.7 79.1 2017-04 7.4 87.2 5.4 2.0 2017-07 8.9 87.4 3.7 5.2 2017-10 10.7 82.4 6.9 3.8 Balance % 8.1 0.9 20 12.2 -3.5 10 Deteriorated (*) COMPETITIVE POSITION ON DOMESTIC MARKET (Improved - Deteriorated) 0 -10 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 -20 3.27 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) Months Improved Remained unchanged Deteriorated Balance % 20 2016-10 11.3 81.1 7.6 3.7 2017-01 10.2 79.7 10.1 0.1 2017-04 6.8 86.5 6.7 0.1 2017-07 6.3 86.4 7.3 -1.0 2017-10 7.7 83.3 9.0 -1.3 COMPETITIVE POSITION ON FOREIGN MARKETS INSIDE THE EU (Improved - Deteriorated) 10 0 -10 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 -20 3.28 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) Months Improved Remained unchanged Deteriorated Balance 2016-10 11.8 80.3 7.9 3.9 2017-01 10.8 80.6 8.6 2.2 2017-04 6.7 86.8 6.5 0.2 2017-07 6.9 84.7 8.4 -1.5 2017-10 7.9 85.7 6.4 1.5 % COMPETITIVE POSITION ON FOREIGN MARKETS OUTSIDE THE EU (Improved - Deteriorated) 20 10 0 -10 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 -20 (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). 12