Turkey: General Economic and Financial Outlook

Transcription

1. Annual Profile Quarterly Profile * Jan-Mar # 1/ 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar # 2015 2015 2015 2016 588,200 710,500 694,400 647,400 78,563 91,028 88,260 80,700 595,486 701,832 685,634 638,702 2014/15 A. Real Sector (Current Prices) 1,371,100 1,656,600 1,843,800 2,101,900 2,429,800 GDP at market prices ( LE Million) GDP at market prices ( US$ Million) 235,990 276,330 285,967 301,570 330,780 1,309,906 1,695,096 1,908,314 2,177,820 2,459,025 GDP at factor cost ( LE Million) GDP at factor cost ( US$ Million) 225,457 282,752 295,973 312,463 334,759 79,536 89,918 87,146 79,615 GDP Per Capita ( EGP) 17,233 -- -- -- 27,625 26,750 31,546 30,831 28,745 GDP Per Capita ( USD) 2,966 -- -- -- 3,761 3,573 4,042 3,919 3,583 B. Real Sector Indicators and Sources of Growth (% Change) 3/ 1.8 Real GDP at market prices 2/ 2.2 2.1 2.2 4.2 5.7 5.1 4.0 3.6 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.2 3.1 4.8 3.1 2.0 1.6 Commodity Sector 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0 Production Services 2.5 2.8 3.1 0.1 4.8 13.7 3.4 2.2 1.2 Social Services 3.4 3.0 3.3 5.5 4.6 3.5 8.1 3.9 3.2 4/ , 5/ -2.2 5.8 -8.4 1.7 8.6 39.0 8.7 3.6 4.9 4/ 5.3 6.0 2.9 4.4 3.3 4.3 6.6 4.5 4.7 Private 5.5 6.5 2.8 4.1 2.8 4.3 6.7 4.8 5.1 Public 3.8 3.1 3.9 6.6 7.0 4.2 5.7 3.0 2.0 1.2 -2.3 5.6 -11.9 -0.4 -12.0 -25.6 -12.0 -20.8 -0.6 -- -- -- 1.6 3.0 2.6 1.5 1.2 Annual nominal growth rate 3.4 -29.5 7.9 -24.2 29.8 47.1 -6.7 22.2 -1.8 Percent of GDP 13.0 8.0 7.9 5.3 5.9 6.5 3.5 5.4 5.8 -0.3 17.1 10.1 16.2 -1.5 14.3 9.9 13.8 20.2 14.4 45.3 17.2 14.9 11.3 18.6 14.0 8.9 17.0 Real GDP at factor cost Investments Consumption 3/ Exports of Goods and Services 4/ Real GDP Per Capita GENERAL ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook Domestic Savings 6/ Domestic Investments 5/, 6/ Annual nominal growth rate Percent of GDP Source: Ministry of Planning. * Preliminary, subject to change. The Ministry of Planning has revised the time series of GDP starting in FY11/12 until FY13/14 in accordance with the economic census. It is also worthy to note that GDP estimates for FY14/15 have been revised to LE 2429.8 billion in light of these recent developments. -- Data not available. New series started in accordance with the economic census, according to the Ministry of Planning. # Revised in light of recent data from Ministry of Planning. GDP figures for FY15/16 are still under revision by the Ministry of Planning. 1/ It is noteworthy to mention that Ministry of Planning is revising GDP data for FY14/15 on quarterly basis. 2/ Real percent change is calculated using constant prices for FY06/07, however, starting FY12/13 growth rates are calculated using constant prices for FY11/12. 3/ Includes petroleum and natural gas activities. 4/ Includes Net Indirect Taxes. 5/ Gross Capital Formation. Includes change in inventory. 6/ Current prices. Fig. ( 1 ) : Annual GDP Growth and Contribution of Expenditure Items in Real GDP Growth 8 Contribution of Expenditures Items in GDP Growth (at market prices) Left Scale 6 (%) 11 9 Right Scale 5.1 7 0.1 3.1 4 2.2 1.9 2.1 3.5 5.1 2.2 2.3 2 1.6 -0.4 -2.2 1.1 5.0 0.8 2.7 -1.3 -4.0 4.1 0.2 -2.1 3.1 5 (%) 3 1.2 0.8 -0.2 -1.6 1 -1 -3 0 -5 Investment Consumption 1/ Net Exports Real GDP (Factor Cost) Source: Ministry of Planning. * Preliminary. 1/ Includes public and private consumption. 1